Unofficial Preview Sack Hinkley

Sack him?


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Schulzenfest

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Look, it was similar to Mark Williams and the neck tie thing. But Williams had just won a flag at least. At that point in time he could have pulled out his knob and slapped Alan Scott around the chops with it for all I cared.
Hinkley had just won what, a showdown, and with a fair slice of luck at that.
A lucky bounce and a moment of brilliance from Steven Motlop won that Showdown. All Hinkley did was preside over a team that couldn't hold onto a 3 goal lead for five minutes.
 

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dirty2

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If hinkley gets a bonus year for making a final.... well that's easy solved if it looks like we are going to make the finals...... sack him.
 

RangaInTeal

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I didn't say anything about winning covering the cracks, I just found it absurd that some of our own supporters wanted us to lose just so they have a right to be even more critical then they already are. So what if it doesn't change our future? It's a win, and we should enjoy wins whilst they last.
We can acknowledge a win and continue to be critical at the same time can't we?
Not when there are clauses' in coaching contracts that are built around winning matches
 

Enviable Tradition

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Yep, and on page 106 of this thread Chrizzt posted these stats. Ken is Mr 56% against all sides.
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/sack-hinkley.1219278/page-106#post-61224186

Our win loss against top 8 sides (top 8 as at end of year, excluding this year as top 8 not set):
2018: 3W 6L (33%)
2017: 2W 7L (22%)
2016: 1W 9L (10%)
2015: 6W 7L (46%)
2014: 3W 6L (33%)
2013: 2W 6L (25%)

That gives Hinkley a winning percentage against top 8 teams of 29%. The winning percentage of a few different teams in that same period:
Sydney: 58%
Richmond: 43%
WCE: 35%
Geelong: 60%

West Coast badly affected by 2013/14 where they went 1-19. From 2015-2018 they are 19-18 @ 51%.
That is damning.

These are the sort of comparisons we need to be making.

Comparing us with the best against the best.

That is all that matters to Port fans.

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GremioPower

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Yep, and on page 106 of this thread Chrizzt posted these stats. Ken is Mr 56% against all sides.
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/sack-hinkley.1219278/page-106#post-61224186

Our win loss against top 8 sides (top 8 as at end of year, excluding this year as top 8 not set):
2018: 3W 6L (33%)
2017: 2W 7L (22%)
2016: 1W 9L (10%)
2015: 6W 7L (46%)
2014: 3W 6L (33%)
2013: 2W 6L (25%)

That gives Hinkley a winning percentage against top 8 teams of 29%. The winning percentage of a few different teams in that same period:
Sydney: 58%
Richmond: 43%
WCE: 35%
Geelong: 60%

West Coast badly affected by 2013/14 where they went 1-19. From 2015-2018 they are 19-18 @ 51%.
Hinkley, as a coach, seems to be like those players too good for the SANFL, but not good enough for the AFL. In baseball, they are called 'AAAA players.'

If this is the case, his extension would have been wrong for everybody. He should be coaching Carlton, North, or Gold Coast. After steading their ship up, he should move into another basket-case; rinse and repeat.

He would work his way into the Hall of Fame doing that. He would be known as "the Doc," "the Healer," "the Cure," "Miracle-Man," or something like that.
 
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Steve Dore

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That will change if and when North make him an offer. And it will be the right call by Sydney to extend him because in 8 completed seasons he's made 8 finals series, 3 grand finals and won 1 flag. Not quite in the same league as old mate.
If Sydney are going to hold Longmire to his contract it doesn't matter if he has an offer from North or not. He is coaching Sydney next season or he is coaching no one.

I posted at the time that Hinkley threatened to break his contract that the club should have got an injunction to prevent him from coaching elsewhere until his contract with Ports expired and to sue Gold Coast for damages for inciting Hinkley to break his contract. Instead soft Koch was so smitten with the idea of Hinkley being a ten year coach at Ports that he fell over himself offering Hinkley a premature and completely undeserved contract extension.
 

Stryke

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A lucky bounce and a moment of brilliance from Steven Motlop won that Showdown. All Hinkley did was preside over a team that couldn't hold onto a 3 goal lead for five minutes.
We were extremely lucky to win that.

Hinkley should be buying Motlop dinner for the rest of his life. If we lost that Showdown in the humiliating manner that we consistently lose, then the wolves would have been at the door a lot earlier than they are. IMO it probably bought Ken about a year of goodwill (in the wider sense not on here).
 

El_Scorcho

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A lucky bounce and a moment of brilliance from Steven Motlop won that Showdown. All Hinkley did was preside over a team that couldn't hold onto a 3 goal lead for five minutes.
And you know what, this would be fine and even a point in Hinkley's favour if we regularly won games in this fashion. If we regularly snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. But we don't. We lose these games time and time again.
 

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Chrizzt

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Well the stats don't lie, that's as middle of the road as you can get.

The worring thing is, in 2019 it's not getting any better so far.
So I've decided to follow up this a little more and look at the winning percentage against top 8 teams from 2014 to 2018.

In that period only two teams have finished top 4 and not had at least 50% winning against top 8 teams - Collingwood last year (1-7 @ 12.5%) and Sydney 2015 (3-5 @ 37.5%).

The median top 8 win % for teams finishing 5th-8th in that time is 38.75%, with only three (out of the 20) having a win % less than 33% - Melb 2018, Port 2017, North 2016.

That's a bit of a jumpy analysis, but basically you need 33-50% wins against top 8 sides to finish 5th to 8th, and better than 50% to finish top 4.

The top 8 win % of premiers counting back from 2018 is: 67%, 50%, 44%, 75%, 50%.

Interestingly, Collingwood had the lowest top 8 win % of any top 8 side in 2014-2018 and nearly pinched the premiership, so maybe that's the exception to the rule Hinkley and co. are banking on us being ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

AwwThatsApples

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Tried listening to his radio interviews on Tuesday, I couldn't last 3 mins , how is this fool a afl coach
IMO I thought that was one of his better interviews (Provided you're talking about his FAA interview on Tuesday)
He spoke about being cautious with Dixon and Wines, wanted to see Hammer return to AFL level, and was very pleased with Dougal up forward and Housten in the middle. I don't think he needed to say anything else.
 

Enviable Tradition

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IMO I thought that was one of his better interviews (Provided you're talking about his FAA interview on Tuesday)
He spoke about being cautious with Dixon and Wines, wanted to see Hammer return to AFL level, and was very pleased with Dougal up forward and Housten in the middle. I don't think he needed to say anything else.
I'm not sure what shocks me less. You supporting Hinkley or you listening to 5AA.

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Us against the rest

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So I've decided to follow up this a little more and look at the winning percentage against top 8 teams from 2014 to 2018.

In that period only two teams have finished top 4 and not had at least 50% winning against top 8 teams - Collingwood last year (1-7 @ 12.5%) and Sydney 2015 (3-5 @ 37.5%).

The median top 8 win % for teams finishing 5th-8th in that time is 38.75%, with only three (out of the 20) having a win % less than 33% - Melb 2018, Port 2017, North 2016.

That's a bit of a jumpy analysis, but basically you need 33-50% wins against top 8 sides to finish 5th to 8th, and better than 50% to finish top 4.

The top 8 win % of premiers counting back from 2018 is: 67%, 50%, 44%, 75%, 50%.

Interestingly, Collingwood had the lowest top 8 win % of any top 8 side in 2014-2018 and nearly pinched the premiership, so maybe that's the exception to the rule Hinkley and co. are banking on us being ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
ken's way off the mark with 29% then.

Thanks for the extra info.
 

TeeKray

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If Sydney are going to hold Longmire to his contract it doesn't matter if he has an offer from North or not. He is coaching Sydney next season or he is coaching no one.

I posted at the time that Hinkley threatened to break his contract that the club should have got an injunction to prevent him from coaching elsewhere until his contract with Ports expired and to sue Gold Coast for damages for inciting Hinkley to break his contract. Instead soft Koch was so smitten with the idea of Hinkley being a ten year coach at Ports that he fell over himself offering Hinkley a premature and completely undeserved contract extension.
In that situation, I think you either let your coach walk or you extend him. If you've got such doubt about the coach of your football club that you don't want to offer him a contract extension then deep down you already know he's not the coach for you. The wrong call we made wasn't not holding Hinkley to his contract, it was not letting him walk.
 

Willsy10

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I'm as frustrated as the next person with Hinkley/The Club and i thought for a while that he has run his race here and we are due for a change but also acknowledge that this is made difficult with the absurd contract extension. But i'm not sure what everyone was expecting, i'm pretty certain the general consensus around here on pre season was that we would finish around 12th, but now we are getting outraged that making the finals this year may be considered a pass mark for Hinkley?
 

Janey

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I'm as frustrated as the next person with Hinkley/The Club and i thought for a while that he has run his race here and we are due for a change but also acknowledge that this is made difficult with the absurd contract extension. But i'm not sure what everyone was expecting, i'm pretty certain the general consensus around here on pre season was that we would finish around 12th, but now we are getting outraged that making the finals this year may be considered a pass mark for Hinkley?
I'm sure that if we were seeing a different philosophy around selections, and an improved gameplan, and if we were comfortably winning games against lesser opposition, then we would be a lot less dissatisfied. It's just the old Groundhog Day/déjà vu feeling that's the problem.
 

S.Patrol.G

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I'm as frustrated as the next person with Hinkley/The Club and i thought for a while that he has run his race here and we are due for a change but also acknowledge that this is made difficult with the absurd contract extension. But i'm not sure what everyone was expecting, i'm pretty certain the general consensus around here on pre season was that we would finish around 12th, but now we are getting outraged that making the finals this year may be considered a pass mark for Hinkley?
Yeah, I thought if everything went right, 7th-8th, and if everything went wrong 12th-13th but that's because I have no faith in Hinkley. If we had a good coach, I'd have been predicting Top 4 if everything went right and 7th-8th if everything went wrong.
 
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