Saints rebuild vs Carlton rebuild

[Glen Buterol]

Not that other team supporters know best, but yes objectively speaking i'd say 95% would rate your young kids like this:

Potential A Grader
McCartin
Bruce
Billings

The rest need to elevate their games to the next level if they want to be more than solid B grade foot soldiers...have shown glimpses but not enough.
Ross - Harsh i know he's improved, but most other supporters still wouldnt know him...racks it up now but not damaging enough yet
Lonie - Shown some nice glimpses of skill but needs consistency and improve hardness
Newnes - Most outside St Kilda dont rate
Acres - Most outside St Kilda dont rate
Webster - Most outside St Kilda dont rate
Dunstan - Looked good in his 1st year seems to have stalled
Longer - Career has stalled...problem is he can only play as no.1 ruck and is behind Hickey
McKenzie - I dont even know who that is
White - I dont even know who that is
Freeman - Well, more injury troubles and no AFL exposure to judge but injuries a concern
Goddard - Unfortunate injury...even before that jury still out
Gresham - Has looked good so far
Rice - Too early to call

St Kilda has invested heavily in these youngsters and your rebuild relies on them.
Unfortunately, i'd say there are way too many who still have massive question marks on them...even Billings who has been dropped.

The other thing is a noticeable lack of the absolute big name star out of the whole bunch...like a Bont, Hogan or Cripps to sort of be the face of it and lead the charge.

Fair enough regarding your assessment of our young list although I put Gresham in the potential A grade category & Newnes & Ross nice B graders to compliment a couple of mid stars, which may not be at the club yet or reached that level.

From an outsiders POV of your young players I only put Cripps & Weitering as the top liners. IMO they have more potential than any young Saint tho. Paddy & Billings could get to their level however not yet. Docherty is a nice player but I'd put him in a similar category to Newnes & Ross. Then you've got some other talented kids (Curnow, the tall twin??? & a couple others) that are yet to show anything for one reason or another. We have a similar bunch.

 

[Kildonan]

Listed below are the players grouped in year of birth and the draft pick number (irrespective of year drafted).

For assessing where their list is right now, games played is more important than age.

100-200 games:
Gilbert (29), Armitage (27), Geary (27), Steven (26), Savage (25)
vs
Gibbs (27), Walker (30), Thomas (28), Jamison (29), Armfield (29), Kreuzer (27), Everitt (27), Tuohy (26), Wright (26), Curnow (26)

No wonder they're winning more games than us. They've got 10 players in the core of their list, and by and large they're all performing well or very well. (Jamison the notable exception.) Whereas we only have 5, and one of them (Gilbert) has been poor to very poor - the others in our best though. So that's 4 vs 9.

Until we get a bunch more players up there into the real heart of an AFL career, we won't be consistently competitive. And there's only four who can possibly get there by the end of next year: Roberton, Carlisle, Newnes, and Weller.

So it's going to be a while yet. Pencil in 2018 for a move up the ladder. Will Richo last that long?

Do you mean like this I posted earlier:

Sam Fisher       1982    225     Kade Simpson     1984    252
Nick Riewoldt    1982    308        
Leigh Montagna   1983    259     Andrew Walker    1986    196
Sean Dempster    1984    213     Dennis Armfield  1986    130
                                 Marc Murphy      1987    214
Sam Gilbert      1986    167     Dale Thomas      1987    191
David Armitage   1988    138     Sam Rowe         1987     61
Jarryn Geary     1988    130     Simon White      1988     64
                                 Bryce Gibbs      1989    197
Jack Steven      1990    122     Matthew Kreuzer  1989    128
Shane Savage     1991    100     Andrejs Everitt  1989    124
Dylan Roberton   1991     90     Zach Tuohy       1989    108
Tom Hickey       1991     51     Matthew Wright   1989    104
Maverick Weller  1992     78     Edward Curnow    1989     98
Josh Bruce       1992     56        
Jack Newnes      1993     79     Levi Casboult    1990     61
Sebastian Ross   1993     47     Jed Lamb         1992     31
                                 Daniel Gorringe  1992     24
Brodie Murdoch   1994     21     Sam Docherty     1993     58
Tim Membrey      1994     18     Sam Kerridge     1993     37
Luke Dunstan     1995     44     Liam Sumner      1993     19
Jack Sinclair    1995     25        
Paddy McCartin   1996     12     Lachlan Plowman  1994     27
Daniel McKenzie  1996      9     Patrick Cripps   1995     32
Jade Gresham     1997      7     Jacob Weitering  1997      8

The spread of ages / experience is completely different.
We have more really old players, and are particularly light in the next age group.
Carlton are really heavy in the next age group of players including 3 x No #1 draft picks and 2 x No #2 draft picks - an impressive collection
The next age group includes many of the stalwarts of our club whereas Carlton's equivalent group is less impressive but similar enough to compare
The next age group is the young developing players, and while Carlton's contains Cripps and Weitering, it is still overwhelmed by the Saints' group (missing Billings, Goddard, Lonie, Acres etc)

Carlton should be peaking now, not in some nebulous future, because the players in that second group are all rapidly approaching their use-by date

or this:

Eddie Betts     1986    239
Richard Douglas 1987    181
Sam Jacobs      1988    137
Ricky Henderson 1988     85
Josh Jenkins    1989     79
Kyle Cheney     1989     63
    
Rory Sloane     1990    128
Taylor Walker   1990    117
Tom Lynch       1990     69
Daniel Talia    1991    108
Kyle Hartigan   1991     51
Brodie Smith    1992    107
Luke Brown      1992     79
Paul Seedsman   1992     59
Jarryd Lyons    1992     41
Rory Laird      1993     63
    
Charlie Cameron 1994     35
Rory Atkins     1994     18
Mitch McGovern  1994     10
Matt Crouch     1995     33
Jake Lever      1996     22
Wayne Milera    1997      7

Nick Riewoldt   1982    309
Leigh Montagna  1983    260
Sean Dempster   1984    214
     
Sam Gilbert     1986    168
David Armitage  1988    139
Jarryn Geary    1988    131
     
Jack Steven     1990    123
Shane Savage    1991    101
Dylan Roberton  1991     91
Tom Hickey      1991     52
Maverick Weller 1992     79
Josh Bruce      1992     57
Jack Newnes     1993     80
Sebastian Ross  1993     48
Jimmy Webster   1993     47
     
Brodie Murdoch  1994     22
Tim Membrey     1994     19
Luke Dunstan    1995     45
Jack Billings   1995     34
Paddy McCartin  1996     13
Hugh Goddard    1996      8
Jade Gresham    1997      8

When one categorises one list as younger than another, what does that mean?
I consider it a more nuanced thing than just adding up ages and dividing by the number of players
I group players in sets, and compare the number of players in those sets and compare approximately how many games each set has played.

Adelaide has no players in the oldest age set, St Kilda has 3
Adelaide has 6 players in the next age set, St Kilda has 3
Adelaide has 10 players in the next age set, St Kilda has 9
Adelaide has 6 players in the youngest age set, St Kilda has 7

While I admit that our team is not of a substantially different in age spread to Adelaide's, I would consider it inaccurate to characterise the Adelaide team as "younger"
The average age is skewed by the three older players at the top of our list.

 

[gringo2011]

Some people have mentioned the fact that a lot of or young players' development is being described as a slow burn. This means as oppose to have a big early impact, they take closer to three or four years to develop like Seb Ross as oppose to someone like Bontempelli or Zach Merrett.

I believe that the reason that this reason this seems to be more prevelent at St Kila then other clubs has more to do with Richo then the players themselves. In my mind Richo's develpment philosophy doesn't allow players to come out and perform brilliantly staright away. In short I don't think we are allowing our young players to achieve what there capable of
Firstly Richo seems to be inlicned to unless the player is a fully fledged midfielder to actually give them any descent tie in the guts. This includes players like DMac, Acres Minch, Acres, Sinclaire, Even Gresh to an extent. My Point is that due t his willingeness for players to devleop pllayers in other positions first it is somewhat counter productive. Any one on here can see that Minch, Acres and even Billings need to develop into midfielder at some stage. However i have seen Billings line up in the middle onnce. I believe to allow a player especially a young mid to really shine early they must be given a chance in the midfield. This is why I think even if we got Bontempelli he wouldn't play at the same level and why if Billings was at theDoggies he would be much better.
Solution give these young players a chance in the guts

Yeah, Richo seems a fan of the ultra disciplined players rather than individual brilliance. Guys like Lonie seem to have become stodgy after his first year where he would have a snap at the freakish chances. Guys like Acres and Lee seem to like to play loose with a bit more flair and they don't play seniors.

 

[The Edukator]

Docherty in AA form.

 

[arete]

Some people have mentioned the fact that a lot of or young players' development is being described as a slow burn. This means as oppose to have a big early impact, they take closer to three or four years to develop like Seb Ross as oppose to someone like Bontempelli or Zach Merrett.

I believe that the reason that this reason this seems to be more prevelent at St Kila then other clubs has more to do with Richo then the players themselves. In my mind Richo's develpment philosophy doesn't allow players to come out and perform brilliantly staright away. In short I don't think we are allowing our young players to achieve what there capable of
Firstly Richo seems to be inlicned to unless the player is a fully fledged midfielder to actually give them any descent tie in the guts. This includes players like DMac, Acres Minch, Acres, Sinclaire, Even Gresh to an extent. My Point is that due t his willingeness for players to devleop pllayers in other positions first it is somewhat counter productive. Any one on here can see that Minch, Acres and even Billings need to develop into midfielder at some stage. However i have seen Billings line up in the middle onnce. I believe to allow a player especially a young mid to really shine early they must be given a chance in the midfield. This is why I think even if we got Bontempelli he wouldn't play at the same level and why if Billings was at theDoggies he would be much better.
Solution give these young players a chance in the guts

I think Billings, DMac, and to a lesser extent even Acres doesn't have the body size yet to play full fledged midfield and am glad these guys are being protected, and a little upset this protection wasn't afforded Dunstan in his first year. Slow burn is normal, Gary Ablett Junior was a slow burn. Kosi won the rising star. And yes, Minch should be played in the guts.

 

[Plumber66]

End of argument after today's result.

 

[SK_MD_#7]

Carlton had some seriously average footballers playing today;

Simon White, Andrejs Everitt, Andrew Walker (almost cooked if he isn't already), Liam Sumner, Dennis Armfield, Daniel Gorringe to name some..

 

[Glen Buterol]

Carlton had some seriously average footballers playing today;

Simon White, Andrejs Everitt, Andrew Walker (almost cooked if he isn't already), Liam Sumner, Dennis Armfield, Daniel Gorringe to name some..

Yup. Hard to believe they've won 6 this year.

 

[The Edukator]

Looks like walker is being gifted games until he reaches 200. 198 after today I think. As a solid servant fair enough but He cam be written off after that. Saints clearly ahead in development and it showed today.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[austinnn]

Loved the Andrew Walker steamy calendar pose that Fixtel put up after his goals: can't tell if he's taking the piss or is a total flog.

 

[Defacto]

with the team carlton is playing, they should be playing finals. their rebuild really is still going, since where ratten left off. ours only started 4 years ago

 

[tom1197]

We had literally no top end talent out there today (ie top10) other than I think Armo a pick 9 from 8 years ago or so.
Mccartin, Riewoldt, billings out
Carlton meanwhile with 5 top 2 draftees struggled
Effort the winner today

 

[stfan]

Blues age profile means that they need to ge delivering now. Today showed that our young talent is way better with players like McCartin, Billings, Longer, Carlisle, Lonie and Sinclair not playing. AND THEN there is McKenzie, White and others.

 

[Glen Buterol]

If Marchbank is tossing up between us & the Blues hopefully he took note of today's game...

 

[Defacto]

If Marchbank is tossing up between us & the Blues hopefully he took note of today's game...

with how bad our KPD stocks are, i can see us going really strongly for him

 

[St Pauls]

If Marchbank is tossing up between us & the Blues hopefully he took note of today's game...

With Carlton grabbing Plowman not sure why the would prioritise another third tall.

 

[Glen Buterol]

With Carlton grabbing Plowman not sure why the would prioritise another third tall.

Plus they've got Weitering. It's only a rumour so perhaps they're not interested. Tomlinson might be who they prefer as a tall.

 

[Joffaboy]

Plus they've got Weitering. It's only a rumour so perhaps they're not interested. Tomlinson might be who they prefer as a tall.

Carlisle was also a lock for Carlton

 

[tom1197]

with how bad our KPD stocks are, i can see us going really strongly for him

Not quite sure how we get him
Can't sacrifice the first rounder

 

[Glen Buterol]

Not quite sure how we get him
Can't sacrifice the first rounder

I said before I'd be happy to do a 2 for 1. Either 2 players for our first (Marchbank & Steele) or a player plus slight pick downgrade.

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

I said before I'd be happy to do a 2 for 1. Either 2 players for our first (Marchbank & Steele) or a player plus slight pick downgrade.

After today I think we trade next years pick as we wont get such a high draft pick nxt season - we might get pick 5/6 this year but it could slip to 8/9.... next year 8-12 will be the likely pick if we improve.

So keep pick 6 this year and trade nxt years 1st to GWS for Marchbank and a pick or Marchbank / Steele

 

[Joffaboy]

I said before I'd be happy to do a 2 for 1. Either 2 players for our first (Marchbank & Steele) or a player plus slight pick downgrade.

Who did we get with the Carlisle downgrade again?

And to think we could have have had Parish

 

[Glen Buterol]

After today I think we trade next years pick as we wont get such a high draft pick nxt season - we might get pick 5/6 this year but it could slip to 8/9.... next year 8-12 will be the likely pick if we improve.

So keep pick 6 this year and trade nxt years 1st to GWS for Marchbank and a pick or Marchbank / Steele

Current ladder standings has us with pick 7 & a relatively easy draw to follow. I suspect we are more in the mix for a pick around 7-9 this year. GWS currently hold pick 13 & also have a relatively easy draw. I'd be ok with trading pick 8ish for Marchbank & 14ish. I'm not overly keen on trading our future first. Just look what happened to the Pies with Treloar.

 

[stfan]

And to think we could have have had Parish

How? He was not available with the pick we had even if we did not use it as part of the Carlisle deal.

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

Current ladder standings has us with pick 7 & a relatively easy draw to follow. I suspect we are more in the mix for a pick around 7-9 this year. GWS currently hold pick 13 & also have a relatively easy draw. I'd be ok with trading pick 8ish for Marchbank & 14ish. I'm not overly keen on trading our future first. Just look what happened to the Pies with Treloar.

Yeah that will also work, especially as this years top 20 are meant to be relatively even (as most of the talent are academy tied)

I'd be happy with that....