Coach Sam Mitchell's direction for the club and 2022 news

Remove this Banner Ad

TheFourPillars

Brownlow Medallist
May 6, 2009
11,776
27,534
AFL Club
Hawthorn
If that was your only baseline for success in a game it is going to make players much more focused on attack, doubt we will see the rewards early on tho but will set us up for years to come
[12]
1
Saturday, 22 March (4:40 pm)​
21.13 (139)13.13 (91)Won by 48 pointsAurora Stadium (H)12,4301–0Report
2
Friday, 28 March (7:50 pm)​
12.14 (86)13.12 (90)Won by 4 pointsEtihad Stadium (A)44,1632–0Report
3
Friday, 4 April (7:50 pm)​
21.11 (137)11.13 (79)Won by 58 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)43,5833–0Report
4
Saturday, 12 April (7:40 pm)​
7.7 (49)23.10 (148)Won by 99 pointsMetricon Stadium (A)17,7294–0Report
515.16 (106)12.15 (87)Lost by 19 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (A)80,2224–1Report
6
Sunday, 27 April (3:20 pm)​
7.10 (52)18.10 (118)Won by 66 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (A)52,9905–1Report
7
Saturday, 3 May (1:45 pm)​
27.13 (175)4.6 (30)Won by 145 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)32,9246–1Report
8
Friday, 9 May (7:50 pm)​
15.17 (107)13.10 (88)Lost by 19 pointsANZ Stadium (A)34,5066–2Report
9Bye
10
Saturday, 24 May (7:10 pm)​
15.10 (100)13.8 (86)Lost by 14 pointsAdelaide Oval (A)52,2336–3Report
11
Sunday, 1 June (4:40 pm)​
14.10 (94)13.9 (87)Won by 7 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)17,9067–3Report
12
Saturday, 7 June (1:40 pm)​
19.9 (123)12.7 (79)Won by 44 pointsAurora Stadium (H)15,5048–3Report
13
Friday, 13 June (7:50 pm)​
13.12 (90)18.10 (118)Won by 28 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (A)49,6249–3Report
14
Saturday, 21 June (2:10 pm)​
17.13 (115)13.8 (86)Won by 29 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)70,51610–3Report
15
Saturday, 28 June (1:45 pm)​
17.14 (116)10.3 (63)Won by 53 pointsAurora Stadium (H)13,17811–3Report
16
Friday, 4 July (7:50 pm)​
16.12 (108)13.10 (88)Lost by 20 pointsEtihad Stadium (A)35,02511–4Report
17
Friday, 11 July (7:20 pm)​
14.8 (92)15.14 (104)Won by 12 pointsAdelaide Oval (A)50,32112–4Report
18
Saturday, 26 July (7:40 pm)​
15.14 (104)13.16 (94)Won by 10 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)72,76813–4Report
19
Sunday, 3 August (3:20 pm)​
16.11 (107)6.9 (45)Won by 62 pointsAurora Stadium (H)14,18714–4Report
20
Saturday, 9 August (4:40 pm)​
17.13 (115)9.11 (65)Won by 50 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)37,08815–4Report
21
Sunday, 17 August (2:40 pm)​
17.8 (110)13.13 (91)Lost by 19 pointsPatersons Stadium (A)38,50615–5Report
22
Saturday, 23 August (7:40 pm)​
14.10 (94)11.5 (71)Won by 23 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)72,21616–5Report
23
Friday, 29 August (7:50 pm)​
8.8 (56)18.13 (121)Won by 65 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (A)48,98017–5Report

This season is a fail according to Sam Mitchell
 

Log in to remove this ad.

CHUBBSS

Club Legend
Apr 6, 2010
1,949
5,286
AFL Club
Hawthorn
[12]
1
Saturday, 22 March (4:40 pm)​
21.13 (139)13.13 (91)Won by 48 pointsAurora Stadium (H)12,4301–0Report
2
Friday, 28 March (7:50 pm)​
12.14 (86)13.12 (90)Won by 4 pointsEtihad Stadium (A)44,1632–0Report
3
Friday, 4 April (7:50 pm)​
21.11 (137)11.13 (79)Won by 58 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)43,5833–0Report
4
Saturday, 12 April (7:40 pm)​
7.7 (49)23.10 (148)Won by 99 pointsMetricon Stadium (A)17,7294–0Report
515.16 (106)12.15 (87)Lost by 19 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (A)80,2224–1Report
6
Sunday, 27 April (3:20 pm)​
7.10 (52)18.10 (118)Won by 66 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (A)52,9905–1Report
7
Saturday, 3 May (1:45 pm)​
27.13 (175)4.6 (30)Won by 145 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)32,9246–1Report
8
Friday, 9 May (7:50 pm)​
15.17 (107)13.10 (88)Lost by 19 pointsANZ Stadium (A)34,5066–2Report
9Bye
10
Saturday, 24 May (7:10 pm)​
15.10 (100)13.8 (86)Lost by 14 pointsAdelaide Oval (A)52,2336–3Report
11
Sunday, 1 June (4:40 pm)​
14.10 (94)13.9 (87)Won by 7 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)17,9067–3Report
12
Saturday, 7 June (1:40 pm)​
19.9 (123)12.7 (79)Won by 44 pointsAurora Stadium (H)15,5048–3Report
13
Friday, 13 June (7:50 pm)​
13.12 (90)18.10 (118)Won by 28 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (A)49,6249–3Report
14
Saturday, 21 June (2:10 pm)​
17.13 (115)13.8 (86)Won by 29 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)70,51610–3Report
15
Saturday, 28 June (1:45 pm)​
17.14 (116)10.3 (63)Won by 53 pointsAurora Stadium (H)13,17811–3Report
16
Friday, 4 July (7:50 pm)​
16.12 (108)13.10 (88)Lost by 20 pointsEtihad Stadium (A)35,02511–4Report
17
Friday, 11 July (7:20 pm)​
14.8 (92)15.14 (104)Won by 12 pointsAdelaide Oval (A)50,32112–4Report
18
Saturday, 26 July (7:40 pm)​
15.14 (104)13.16 (94)Won by 10 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)72,76813–4Report
19
Sunday, 3 August (3:20 pm)​
16.11 (107)6.9 (45)Won by 62 pointsAurora Stadium (H)14,18714–4Report
20
Saturday, 9 August (4:40 pm)​
17.13 (115)9.11 (65)Won by 50 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)37,08815–4Report
21
Sunday, 17 August (2:40 pm)​
17.8 (110)13.13 (91)Lost by 19 pointsPatersons Stadium (A)38,50615–5Report
22
Saturday, 23 August (7:40 pm)​
14.10 (94)11.5 (71)Won by 23 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)72,21616–5Report
23
Friday, 29 August (7:50 pm)​
8.8 (56)18.13 (121)Won by 65 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (A)48,98017–5Report

This season is a fail according to Sam Mitchell
Wouldn’t you be looking for a trend line of average score from previous year and if there is a trend upwards as a marker that it is working?
 

Brishawk

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 17, 2008
23,743
43,802
Brisvegas
AFL Club
Hawthorn
[12]
1
Saturday, 22 March (4:40 pm)​
21.13 (139)13.13 (91)Won by 48 pointsAurora Stadium (H)12,4301–0Report
2
Friday, 28 March (7:50 pm)​
12.14 (86)13.12 (90)Won by 4 pointsEtihad Stadium (A)44,1632–0Report
3
Friday, 4 April (7:50 pm)​
21.11 (137)11.13 (79)Won by 58 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)43,5833–0Report
4
Saturday, 12 April (7:40 pm)​
7.7 (49)23.10 (148)Won by 99 pointsMetricon Stadium (A)17,7294–0Report
515.16 (106)12.15 (87)Lost by 19 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (A)80,2224–1Report
6
Sunday, 27 April (3:20 pm)​
7.10 (52)18.10 (118)Won by 66 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (A)52,9905–1Report
7
Saturday, 3 May (1:45 pm)​
27.13 (175)4.6 (30)Won by 145 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)32,9246–1Report
8
Friday, 9 May (7:50 pm)​
15.17 (107)13.10 (88)Lost by 19 pointsANZ Stadium (A)34,5066–2Report
9Bye
10
Saturday, 24 May (7:10 pm)​
15.10 (100)13.8 (86)Lost by 14 pointsAdelaide Oval (A)52,2336–3Report
11
Sunday, 1 June (4:40 pm)​
14.10 (94)13.9 (87)Won by 7 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)17,9067–3Report
12
Saturday, 7 June (1:40 pm)​
19.9 (123)12.7 (79)Won by 44 pointsAurora Stadium (H)15,5048–3Report
13
Friday, 13 June (7:50 pm)​
13.12 (90)18.10 (118)Won by 28 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (A)49,6249–3Report
14
Saturday, 21 June (2:10 pm)​
17.13 (115)13.8 (86)Won by 29 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)70,51610–3Report
15
Saturday, 28 June (1:45 pm)​
17.14 (116)10.3 (63)Won by 53 pointsAurora Stadium (H)13,17811–3Report
16
Friday, 4 July (7:50 pm)​
16.12 (108)13.10 (88)Lost by 20 pointsEtihad Stadium (A)35,02511–4Report
17
Friday, 11 July (7:20 pm)​
14.8 (92)15.14 (104)Won by 12 pointsAdelaide Oval (A)50,32112–4Report
18
Saturday, 26 July (7:40 pm)​
15.14 (104)13.16 (94)Won by 10 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)72,76813–4Report
19
Sunday, 3 August (3:20 pm)​
16.11 (107)6.9 (45)Won by 62 pointsAurora Stadium (H)14,18714–4Report
20
Saturday, 9 August (4:40 pm)​
17.13 (115)9.11 (65)Won by 50 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)37,08815–4Report
21
Sunday, 17 August (2:40 pm)​
17.8 (110)13.13 (91)Lost by 19 pointsPatersons Stadium (A)38,50615–5Report
22
Saturday, 23 August (7:40 pm)​
14.10 (94)11.5 (71)Won by 23 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (H)72,21616–5Report
23
Friday, 29 August (7:50 pm)​
8.8 (56)18.13 (121)Won by 65 pointsMelbourne Cricket Ground (A)48,98017–5Report

This season is a fail according to Sam Mitchell
Sack the coach! 🤪
 

MrPremiership

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 18, 2013
14,623
33,161
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Better to aim for 20 goals and end up with 14 than aim for 10 and end up with 7.
That is a great thing to say to 6 year olds, but not sure its a great AFL strategy.


I think if you set up for a 20 goals game, you're going to concede some big scores and there isn't any guarantee you'll score yourself (see Carlton under Teague).


I do love the attacking intent. It will be interesting to see how Sam adapts to this if early results don't go well
 

Brishawk

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 17, 2008
23,743
43,802
Brisvegas
AFL Club
Hawthorn
A quick comparison to Melbourne in home and away:
2021 Dees:
For: 1888
Against: 1443

2021 Hawks:
For: 1629
Against: 1912

Difference:
For: 259 (16%)
Against: 469 (25%)

To match Melbourne performance we need to increase scoring by 2 goals per game and decrease scores against by around 3.5 goals per game.

improving goals scored will improve goals against due to denying the opposition an opportunity to score a goal off of a turn over but similarly improving our defence will provide us with more scoring opportunities.

if we can score one more goal a game and concede 2 less we would play finals in 2022. That would be the ambition I’d have if coach.

Edit: as an aside Essendon scored more than Melbourne in the home and away and got embarrassed in the finals. Got to improve both scoring and scores conceded to be relevant in finals.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

hawkman

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 7, 2007
23,168
27,988
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
If you win why does it matter. The focus should always be to win there is no point kicking 14 goals or 20 for that matter if your opponent kicks 15 or 21
The issue with defend first is it only takes a bad 5-10 minute patch to take the game away from you. There needs to be a better balance than what we have had for the last 3 years
 

MrPremiership

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 18, 2013
14,623
33,161
AFL Club
Hawthorn
The issue with defend first is it only takes a bad 5-10 minute patch to take the game away from you. There needs to be a better balance than what we have had for the last 3 years
Also means you'd only need a 5-10 min good patch to win a game


Agree we need to find a better balance.

If we're more attacking and aiming for 20 goals a game, not sure we'd win too many more, but gee we'd be fun to watch
 

TheFourPillars

Brownlow Medallist
May 6, 2009
11,776
27,534
AFL Club
Hawthorn
The issue with defend first is it only takes a bad 5-10 minute patch to take the game away from you. There needs to be a better balance than what we have had for the last 3 years
I'm not sure but I think what you have mentioned is the modern game. The rest of the game against good sides seem to be stalemates. Every recent successful team has a defend first mentality
 

Brishawk

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 17, 2008
23,743
43,802
Brisvegas
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I did a little bit of modelling of the past 10 years of home and away results:
1634616288909.png

What it shows is that the return on saving points scored against is consistently better than the return on scoring more, in term of additional wins. Please note, I have removed 2020 from the data as it had a shortened season. The line shows what the expectation is as opposed to what actually went down. Roughly it shows you get around 25% more wins saving points than scoring points. The spread is pretty stable even as the scoring rate in the AFL has declined. Probably explains why coaches, including Clarko, have favoured a more defensive approach over the past 10 years.
 

TheFourPillars

Brownlow Medallist
May 6, 2009
11,776
27,534
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I did a little bit of modelling of the past 10 years of home and away results:
View attachment 1263585
What it shows is that the return on saving points scored against is consistently better than the return on scoring more, in term of additional wins. Please note, I have removed 2020 from the data as it had a shortened season. The line shows what the expectation is as opposed to what actually went down. Roughly it shows you get around 25% more wins saving points that scoring points. The spread is pretty stable even as the scoring rate in the AFL has declined. Probably explains why coaches, including Clarko, have favoured a more defensive approach over the past 10 years.
Mate that is an awesome illustration and explains what I have been trying to explain.
 

kazzooka

Club Legend
May 20, 2010
2,677
5,062
AFL Club
Hawthorn
If you win why does it matter. The focus should always be to win there is no point kicking 14 goals or 20 for that matter if your opponent kicks 15 or 21
Stkilda spent 2 years in the top end of the ladder only kicking 10 goals a game. They could be dominating all day but still only be 2 goals up at 3qtr time. When you only kick 10 you are never safe. I don't care if we kick 5 goals if we only concede 0 but i want to kick 5 more at least than the opposition.
 

TheFourPillars

Brownlow Medallist
May 6, 2009
11,776
27,534
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Stkilda spent 2 years in the top end of the ladder only kicking 10 goals a game. They could be dominating all day but still only be 2 goals up at 3qtr time. When you only kick 10 you are never safe. I don't care if we kick 5 goals if we only concede 0 but i want to kick 5 more at least than the opposition.
Everyone wants that mate. However defense rules league wide and has been that way for a while now. As has been pointed out by numerous stats and graphs you have a better chance of winning playing finals etc and even winning it all having that defensive mindset. It is the modern game and until that changes i will always lean towards it. I think we are very well set up in the back half. As Melbourne have shown and to a degree Richmond you do not need to have awesome attack filled with stars to succeed just adjust your game to your strengths
 

CHUBBSS

Club Legend
Apr 6, 2010
1,949
5,286
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I did a little bit of modelling of the past 10 years of home and away results:
View attachment 1263585
What it shows is that the return on saving points scored against is consistently better than the return on scoring more, in term of additional wins. Please note, I have removed 2020 from the data as it had a shortened season. The line shows what the expectation is as opposed to what actually went down. Roughly it shows you get around 25% more wins saving points than scoring points. The spread is pretty stable even as the scoring rate in the AFL has declined. Probably explains why coaches, including Clarko, have favoured a more defensive approach over the past 10 years.
Couldn’t you caveat this with that stat of how often we win when we get to 100 points first. But focusing on attack may mean we open ourselves up to big losses as we come to terms with the new style.

Sam’s 120 point target could still fall short but would reach its objective as long as we are still defending well - can’t see why that will stop.
 

Bardo State

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 21, 2010
12,865
15,602
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Chelsea, Detroit Pistons
Sam's reported style reminds me a bit of Ange Postecoglou.

In Japan in his first season he was up against relegation but finished mid table while his team scored the second most goals in the league.

Two seasons later they comfortably won the J League scoring the most goals but behind a host of clubs for goals conceded. You can see the same growing pains now that he's taken over Celtic whse fans aren't used to losing in the national League.

A slight difference in return from 100 points scored/conceded is only relevant if it takes the same amount of effort to prevent 100 points from being scored as it does to score an extra 100 points. Realistically you have to do both.

You can't prevent the opposition from scoring effectively if they don't treat you as a serious attacking threat.

I'm definitely looking forward to a new approach.
 

flinchfree

Premiership Player
Jan 30, 2014
3,559
7,609
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Well, should be an interesting season for the team, coaches and supporters.
I completely accept many would enjoy some dour low points total wins just as much as some others the electric high scoring ones, and of course you take them both. But IMO think the confidence you gain as a team if you can regularly put up bigger goal numbers has a more enervating, confidence inspiring, boost in the battery boxes if you will. To do that and be high scoring, players generally have to be in really good form and execute the skills of the game really well. When you have to hang your hat every week on killing the opposition through defence and desperation to limit them, it's a pretty draining directive for mine on the players. Any time that fails and you get blown out, well how's that on the confidence and belief you can ride that philosophy to finals footy? It's not as if you can mid stream ADD efficient effective attacking play to your overall game and just switch style?
However, if you're an attacking side and the goals dry up for a few weeks, you might scrounge a win or two simply because you're defensively pretty good and the other team might not be particularly good scoring goals themselves.

I hope we're zagging if the prevailing thinking is you have to zig to win.
Quite likely that if most other teams are really struggling to score because that's what coaches strategize as the most likely method to success, then kicking a few more sausage rolls every week will make it very tough for them to overcome when they don't have the ability and repeated muscle memory of how to do exactly that.
I reckon our defense will be stout next season, as it has nearly always been.
And just maybe we'll be hard to stop going forward too. That could be worth a half dozen spots on the ladder right there.
Perhaps we should worry about how you win a premiership and where extra tweaking needs to be done once were back as a regular top 4-5 team?
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Remove this Banner Ad