Recommitted Sam Reid [re-signed]

[GiantOrange]

I'd probably accept the equivalent compo Geelong got for Ablett if Reid does leave....

He's worth a first rounder and if Collingwood want him their first will need to be on the table because we will match.

Would a top ten pick get the deal done anotherletdown?

 

[TW Sherrin]

I'd probably accept the equivalent compo Geelong got for Ablett if Reid does leave....

He's worth a first rounder and if Collingwood want him their first will need to be on the table because we will match.

bahahahahahahahahahahaha

 

[Frank Gallagher]

I'd probably accept the equivalent compo Geelong got for Ablett if Reid does leave....

He's worth a first rounder and if Collingwood want him their first will need to be on the table because we will match.

But how are you going to match the bid? You do realise you have to match the bid in its entirety, and your cap is already bulging, there's noway you match a 900kpa bid.

And there's no chance of getting our first rounder for him lol.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

salary cap jumps up by 2 million next year

Yes, and every man and his manager knows that.

 

[anotherletdown]

Would a top ten pick get the deal done anotherletdown?

I would say somewhere in the range of 8-12 is about right if he wants to go. The issue is that if he wants to go to Collingwood they have very little currency outside of that 1st pick

 

[anotherletdown]

But how are you going to match the bid? You do realise you have to match the bid in its entirety, and your cap is already bulging, there's noway you match a 900kpa bid.

And there's no chance of getting our first rounder for him lol.

IMO you can't afford to low ball otherwise your first ends up in the discussions and I can't imagine anyone is going to offer up too many future's this year as next years draft looks much deeper. That sort of offer might get us a tied to first round compo pick..... If we admit he's gone then that might just be enough for us.

I'm just trying to tease out what his value really is.... most people are just spitting bile in response

 

[Frank Gallagher]

IMO you can't afford to low ball otherwise your first ends up in the discussions and I can't imagine anyone is going to offer up too many future's this year as next years draft looks much deeper. That sort of offer might get us a tied to first round compo pick..... If we admit he's gone then that might just be enough for us.

I'm just trying to tease out what his value really is.... most people are just spitting bile in response

He's definitely worth a first rounder, a pick around 10 IMO, what worries me is his injury history, and his brothers.

 

[Apex36]

I'm just trying to tease out what his value really is.... most people are just spitting bile in response

No you aren't, you've decided he's worth close to a top 10 pick and are getting surprised when people ridicule you for it.

 

[Apex36]

He's definitely worth a first rounder, a pick around 10 IMO, what worries me is his injury history, and his brothers.

He's really not. Late first rounder at a stretch.

 

[MotleyLemon]

Late first/early second, IMO.

 

[anotherletdown]

He's definitely worth a first rounder, a pick around 10 IMO, what worries me is his injury history, and his brothers.

That's about my opinion of him too, around 8-12 or maybe a few places later. I think true value is going to be improbable through the FA system so I'm just wondering how else we can generate the value.

Don't pay to much attention to Collingwood games but I think Sam's injury record has been far better. On the Sydney board someone did the analysis - there's only been 2 years at the club where he hasn't put together 20 games in a season

 

[Frank Gallagher]

He's really not. Late first rounder at a stretch.

I wouldn't pay pick 10 for him but someone would IMO as he's been in good form lately.

The reason i'm not keen on him are 1: his injury history and 2: he isn't a no1 fwd and never will be, we need someone to build a forward line around, he aint it.

 

[anotherletdown]

No you aren't, you've decided he's worth close to a top 10 pick and are getting surprised when people ridicule you for it.

Correct. I'm asking a question and I have an opinion on his value.

I'm do wonder why people feel the need for ridicule though..... but that's not a question for me, it more related to the posters. There's ways of saying things

 

[Frank Gallagher]

That's about my opinion of him too, around 8-12 or maybe a few places later. I think true value is going to be improbable through the FA system so I'm just wondering how else we can generate the value.

Don't pay to much attention to Collingwood games but I think Sam's injury record has been far better. On the Sydney board someone did the analysis - there's only been 2 years at the club where he hasn't put together 20 games in a season

You'll get band 1 compensation, problem is your ladder position will be high, that's just the way it is.

You aren't going to be able to do what the Crows did because anyone who gets Reid will be paying overs salary wise, they'll be happy to do that because they didn't have to trade for him, they aren't going to pay overs and give you a nice pick.

 

[Apex36]

I wouldn't pay pick 10 for him but someone would IMO as he's been in good form lately.

The reason i'm not keen on him are 1: his injury history and 2: he isn't a no1 fwd and never will be, we need someone to build a forward line around, he aint it.

And the reasons you've outlined are exactly why he's not worth that pick and why he's attractive as a free agent. As a free hit he's worth the risk, as a high cost trade, wouldn't touch him with a 20 ft pole.

 

[scaryness]

Tippett is contracted until 2022

2020

 

[Apex36]

How do you come to this odd conclusion he is worth between 8-12? What has he done this year to warrant this?

Apparently 30 goal a year forwards are worth top 10 picks now...

 

[lollol]

Apparently 30 goal a year forwards are worth top 10 picks now...

Doesn't matter, your mob will pay the price or continue to have a disfunctional forward line that causes your club to remain in the wilderness. Last Time I checked key pos forwards were in short supply and there is lots of demand.

 

[Apex36]

Doesn't matter, your mob will pay the price or continue to have a disfunctional forward line that causes your club to remain in the wilderness. Last Time I checked key pos forwards were in short supply and there is lots of demand.

Not enough demand to be paying ridiculous overs for a free agent.

As I've said, Reid is attractive because he's a potential free hit for clubs who need a supporting key forward. As a high cost trade he's extremely unattractive. If Sydney want to match an offer which will inevitably be overs for Reid in order to force a trade, more power to them, but I have a feeling that clubs will make it known to them that matching offers will only lead to them having a second string forward on their books on a highly inflated salary, which I doubt they'll be happy about.

 

[DaveLister]

His 6 goal game is such an enormous outlier when you look at his year, his second best is 3 goals which he's had twice, goalless on 4 occasions.
In fact it's an outlier when you look at his 113 game career only 2 other times has he kicked more than 3 goals, 6 against the lions in 2012 and 4 against carlton in 2014. Take that 6 goal anomaly out and he's 16 goals from 14 games add in some injury concerns and I can't see how he's worth a first rounder.

 

[Caj]

His 6 goal game is such an enormous outlier when you look at his year, his second best is 3 goals which he's had twice, goalless on 4 occasions.
In fact it's an outlier when you look at his 113 game career only 2 other times has he kicked more than 3 goals, 6 against the lions in 2012 and 4 against carlton in 2014. Take that 6 goal anomaly out and he's 16 goals from 14 games add in some injury concerns and I can't see how he's worth a first rounder.

How many players in the league have had multiple 6 goal games?

How many 6+ goal returns have there been this season?

It's not 1998 anymore, the game is simply harder for forwards now, particularly ones like Sam who play up the ground

I'm not trying to argue his value one way or the other, but your stats are pretty meaningless

 

[DaveLister]

How many players in the league have had multiple 6 goal games?

How many 6+ goal returns have there been this season?

It's not 1998 anymore, the game is simply harder for forwards now, particularly ones like Sam who play up the ground

I'm not trying to argue his value one way or the other, but your stats are pretty meaningless

The 6 goal game was great, not going to argue that and can't really be bothered doing the research on those questions.
The point of my post was that the 6 goal game is an outlier of his season and of his career.
In fact more than 3 goal games make up less than 3% of his games, yeah it's not 1998 but that's still astonishingly low for a tall forward.
My stats question if he kicks enough goals or enough bags of goals which is pretty meaningful for a tall forward.
Edit: Also I don't really care about his value, Freo aren't even remotely in the running.

 

[Teddy chester]

Reid is not an elite goal kicker but is an elite contested mark and defensive pressure. If he leaves via free agency the swans won't stop him getting to his destination after the service he has given. The compo is looking like a late first rounder band 1 or 2 (may not be much between the picks anyway if we keep playing strong)

 

[aussierulesrules]

He won't get band 1. Apparently about $900K PA is what's needed to trigger band 1 compo now.

 

[Ambrosia]

You reckon he'd choose Collingwood over Richmond because he wouldn't have to pinch hit in the ruck.