Science vs the right wing

[Lebbo73]

UCLA did a study to see how many cases they might have in the area. They found 440,000 cases of Covid19 in LA County alone. That’s 40 times more than what was previously estimated and the death rate didn’t change. It obviously means it isn’t as deadly as first thought.
Alan Jones talkin to Harley Carnes this morning.

 

[kranky al]

I understand that Doss but to close down countries is absolute madness.
A study in Massachusetts did a randomised test on 200 people and it was found that one third of them have antibodies for Covid19. This straight away tells us that more people have been infected than first thought so the mortality rate is lower. There are experts in Australia saying that you are safer outside than inside.
Alan Jones was talking about it yesterday morning with Harley Carnes from the US.

Getting information from the alan jones show vs

This Week in Virology

A podcast about viruses - the kind that make you sick

www.microbe.tv

You will find alan jones will pick an expert that peddles the lines that reflect what he wants to hear.

thats what he always does.

ffs

 

[Gough]

UCLA did a study to see how many cases they might have in the area. They found 440,000 cases of Covid19 in LA County alone. That’s 40 times more than what was previously estimated and the death rate didn’t change. It obviously means it isn’t as deadly as first thought.
Alan Jones talkin to Harley Carnes this morning.

Lebs you can't cite experts with one breath and then Alan Jones with the next unless you're talking about back line set moves.

 

[kranky al]

I understand that Doss but to close down countries is absolute madness.
A study in Massachusetts did a randomised test on 200 people and it was found that one third of them have antibodies for Covid19. This straight away tells us that more people have been infected than first thought so the mortality rate is lower. There are experts in Australia saying that you are safer outside than inside.
Alan Jones was talking about it yesterday morning with Harley Carnes from the US.

Your whole rationale that people get to die because economy is disgusting.

theres significant research thats suggesting that we may not get any immunity to this at all.

until the research is at a stage where we have a good idea if what is actually going on with some serious grounding we are better off clearing covid locally and opening up for business with international quarantines in place.

your approach is one where you are gambling 100’s of thousands of lives just in australia alone.

 

[Lebbo73]

Your whole rationale that people get to die because economy is disgusting.

theres significant research thats suggesting that we may not get any immunity to this at all.

until the research is at a stage where we have a good idea if what is actually going on with some serious grounding we are better off clearing covid locally and opening up for business with international quarantines in place.

your approach is one where you are gambling 100’s of thousands of lives just in australia alone.

Your approach is to sacrifice 100’s of millions of lives by an economic collapse to save 100’s of thousands of exaggerated deaths.

 

[HairyO]

Your whole rationale that people get to die because economy is disgusting.

theres significant research thats suggesting that we may not get any immunity to this at all.

until the research is at a stage where we have a good idea if what is actually going on with some serious grounding we are better off clearing covid locally and opening up for business with international quarantines in place.

your approach is one where you are gambling 100’s of thousands of lives just in australia alone.

Hundreds of thousands of lives in Australia.

Maybe this topic should be relabelled Science vs the left wing.

 

[kranky al]

Hundreds of thousands of lives in Australia.

Maybe this topic should be relabelled Science vs the left wing.

If this virus was allowed to travel uncked it would do exactly that.
Currently indonesia is in the position of being basically unable to do anything about covid. The structures for testing etc just arent there - they have no idea how many people have it or whos died from it - as at half way through this month their death rate for the month was 40% higher than the year before.
AT HALF WAY THROUGH THE MONTH.

 

[kranky al]

Your approach is to sacrifice 100’s of millions of lives by an economic collapse to save 100’s of thousands of exaggerated deaths.

My approach is to eliminate the virus with a quick isolation then open for business again with an international quarantine to remain in place.

if we had done this in late january wed be back at work already.

 

[kranky al]

Hundreds of thousands of lives in Australia.

Maybe this topic should be relabelled Science vs the left wing.

<<<

If by the epidemic’s end 60 per cent of all age groups are infected, this is (a shocking) 134,000 deaths in Australia.>>>
Source: https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-maths-and-ethics-of-minimising-covid-19-deaths

 

[HairyO]

If this virus was allowed to travel uncked it would do exactly that.
Currently indonesia is in the position of being basically unable to do anything about covid. The structures for testing etc just arent there - they have no idea how many people have it or whos died from it - as at half way through this month their death rate for the month was 40% higher than the year before.
AT HALF WAY THROUGH THE MONTH.

Indonesia is a 3rd world shithole.

The US has 15 times our population and has 40,000 deaths.

THE POINT YOU MAKE ISNT IMPROVED JUST BY USING CAPITAL LETTERS.

 

[HairyO]

My approach is to eliminate the virus with a quick isolation then open for business again with an international quarantine to remain in place.

if we had done this in late january wed be back at work already.

 

[kranky al]

Indonesia is a 3rd world shithole.

The US has 15 times our population and has 40,000 deaths.

THE POINT YOU MAKE ISNT IMPROVED JUST BY USING CAPITAL LETTERS.

And by the time the us has finished with covid i reckon they will be at around 250000 deaths.
Bit of a third world shithole as well.

 

[kranky al]

View attachment 862219

Im the one quoting medical organisations - its your side going with your “gut feels”

 

[Doss]

Im the one quoting medical organisations - its your side going with your “gut feels”

You're wasting your time with that guy, kranky.

 

[medusala]

What did they get wrong?

Vastly overestimated deaths and prevalence of those things. The chap who the UK govt has relied on re modelling doesnt have a great track record. The media have been useless at mentioning all this.

Six Questions for Neil Ferguson

UK television and radio media are just as left-wing as they are in New Zealand. The Spectator highlights two interviews, each carried out very differently, on BBC Radio 4’s Today&nbs…

thebfd.co.nz

The Spectator’s Steerpike poses six questions to Professor Ferguson – which I paraphrase here – which should have been asked, but weren’t:


1. In 2005, Fergusson claimed that bird flu could kill up to 200 million people, but in the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009. How did he get this so wrong?


2. In 2009, Ferguson claimed a case fatality rate of between 0.3 percent and 1.5 percent for swine flu. This was later revised to a mortality rate of 0.4 percent. A government estimate based on his advice was that under a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths. Swine flu in fact killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of just 0.026 percent in those infected. How did he get this so wrong?


3. In 2001 the Imperial College team produced modelling for foot and mouth disease suggesting that animals on neighbouring farms should be culled even if there was no evidence of infection. This influenced government policy and led to the culling of more than six million animals at an estimated cost to the UK economy of £10 billion. Other experts later found the modelling to be ’severely flawed’ and that it contained a ’serious error’ by ‘ignoring the species composition of farms’. Does Ferguson admit this error?


4. In 2002 Ferguson predicted that between 50 and 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. He predicted that this could rise to 150,000 were there to be a sheep epidemic. In the UK there have been 177 deaths from BSE. Was his ‘worst-case scenario’ too high?


5. Ferguson’s COVID-19 modelling has been criticised by Professor John Ioannidis of Stanford University who says that some of the major assumptions and estimates built into the calculations seem to be ‘substantially inflated’. Has Imperial’s COVID-19 model been peer-reviewed by independent experts and what questioning has there been of the assumptions used?


6. On March 22, Ferguson said that Imperial’s COVID-19 model is based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. How many of the model’s assumptions are still based on influenza and is there any risk that the modelling is flawed because of these assumptions?

 

[medusala]

At least with HIV the method of transmission was more fun than just getting coughed on.

I'm pretty confident that most people would prefer getting coughed on that taking one up the kyber.

 

[kranky al]

I'm pretty confident that most people would prefer getting coughed on that taking one up the kyber.

Not often we agree but im with you 100% on this one.

if thats your thing fine - ill take the cough cheers

 

[kranky al]

 

[medusala]

There is NO consensus over this. A number as per Sweden and Oxford and Ionnadis think the fatality rate is far less lower than bandied about and that lockdowns are hardly a panacea.

UK's coronavirus crisis peaked BEFORE lockdown, says top experts

Oxford University professor Carl Heneghan claims data shows infections halved after March 16. He hailed Sweden for 'holding its nerve' and not giving in to hasty scientific advice.

www.dailymail.co.uk

It comes as a leading expert at the University of Oxford has argued the peak was actually about a month ago, a week before lockdown started on March 23, and that the draconian measures people are now living with were unnecessary.

Professor Carl Heneghan claims data shows infection rates halved after the Government launched a public information campaign on March 16 urging people to wash their hands and keep two metres (6'6") away from others.

He said ministers 'lost sight' of the evidence and rushed into a nationwide quarantine six days later after being instructed by scientific advisers who he claims have been 'consistently wrong' during the crisis.

 

[kranky al]

There is NO consensus over this. A number as per Sweden and Oxford and Ionnadis think the fatality rate is far less lower than bandied about and that lockdowns are hardly a panacea.

UK's coronavirus crisis peaked BEFORE lockdown, says top experts

Oxford University professor Carl Heneghan claims data shows infections halved after March 16. He hailed Sweden for 'holding its nerve' and not giving in to hasty scientific advice.

www.dailymail.co.uk

It comes as a leading expert at the University of Oxford has argued the peak was actually about a month ago, a week before lockdown started on March 23, and that the draconian measures people are now living with were unnecessary.

Professor Carl Heneghan claims data shows infection rates halved after the Government launched a public information campaign on March 16 urging people to wash their hands and keep two metres (6'6") away from others.

He said ministers 'lost sight' of the evidence and rushed into a nationwide quarantine six days later after being instructed by scientific advisers who he claims have been 'consistently wrong' during the crisis.

Yes and theres also no consensus over immunity once you have had it

So you err on the side of caution...

 

[kranky al]

<<<The eyes stay with you. In peace time most of those we intubate are chronically ill, or profoundly confused, or unconscious and unaware of the world around them. Covid has changed the equation. Most of my patients now remain awake and alert until the end. These days the ER is permeated with frank conversations about death and dying and what a chance to live entails. It is a hard thing to tell a healthy and functional person who felt fine and well six days ago they may be dead in a day or two and humbly ask how aggressive they want us to be. A chance to live comes with the risk of dependence on life support and pain. The alternative is the guarantee of an imminent but peaceful death. I have never had more harrowing, more frequent, more brutally honest, more meaningful, more exhausting conversations in my life. Complete strangers open up to you in profound ways during such times and you can only hope both your expertise and your humanity serve them well. And the eyes stay with you.>>>>
<<<Oxygen Rounds is a new term we have become all too familiar with. I have a hospital full of medications. Antibiotics and anti-virals and sedatives and vasopressors and steroids and opiates. But the only truly effective medicine we have is Oxygen. We blow it at high flow rates into people's mouths and nostrils, a crutch to help the lungs that are struggling and staggering. And it's in a shorter supply than I'd like. It flows forever from spickets on the walls, but we have many times more patients than spickets and even fewer rooms so an ever increasing number of patients on stretchers line hallways further and further from the spickets on the walls. We place portable tanks next to stretchers, but the tanks run out and we can't refill them fast enough. Once per hour, sometimes twice, I walk the halls, hunting for gauges approaching empty and hoping the cabinet holds a replacement. Invariably I find empty ones and hope it hasn't been empty long. Invariably someone is turning blue. It's no one's fault. it's everyone's fault. it's Covid's fault. And there just aren't enough eyes and hands to keep up. I mutter a promise to check three times next hour. I pull a step ladder from the utility closet and string plastic connecters end to end to end threading them from wall spickets through corrugated ceiling tiles to drop down above patients' heads in the hallway so they aren't reliant on a tank. It's hard to tell which knob goes to who, but at least it doesn't run out. It's a strange time when a step ladder becomes a more useful tool than a stethoscope.>>>

 

[kranky al]

Coronavirus could impair organs of those infected for 'months and years'

Experts say COVID-19 could inflict lasting damage on the body's organs, impairing the lung and heart functions of those who become critically ill with the disease.

www.watoday.com.au

There is so much we dont know about this.

so much to research before we blindly open up again

 

[kranky al]

"I Don't Believe Your Science As I Believe My God" Says Anti-Lockdown Protestor

I'm not telling anyone to get back to work! That's a different god.

god.dailydot.com

<<<Once the workers at these establishments make the decision that it’s unsafe and refuse to work, they become ineligible for unemployment benefits. We haven’t even peaked here in Georgia yet. And they are opening the main venues of spread. Un*inbelievable>>>>

 

[Patrick Bullet]

Coronavirus could impair organs of those infected for 'months and years'

Experts say COVID-19 could inflict lasting damage on the body's organs, impairing the lung and heart functions of those who become critically ill with the disease.

www.watoday.com.au

There is so much we dont know about this.

so much to research before we blindly open up again

What are you talking about? Didn't you read the posts above in this thread? The people who know all the things actually post here; what an incredible coincidence that they happen to be BigFooty SRP fans! We're really quite lucky.

 

[kranky al]

What are you talking about? Didn't you read the posts above in this thread? The people who know all the things actually post here; what an incredible coincidence that they happen to be BigFooty SRP fans! We're really quite lucky.

They are climate scientists, economists AND virologists/ epidemiologists

blessed be the fruit