Scott Morrison - How Long? Part 4

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Just listening to David Spears on ABC and they are talking about how the LNP want to open up and we will have to accept 1,000 cases per day and treat it like the flue.

That is political suicide.
Once you have enough of the most people vaccinated, that is exactly what you can do.

The UK currently has around 2,500 cases and 20 deaths per day. That is the equivalent of Australia having 1,000 cases and 8 deaths. That is very much a tolerable level of risk.
 
Once you have enough of the most people vaccinated, that is exactly what you can do.

The UK currently has around 2,500 cases and 20 deaths per day. That is the equivalent of Australia having 1,000 cases and 8 deaths. That is very much a tolerable level of risk.

Well given we have pretty much zero vaccination and an electorate anaphylactic to "outsiders" there is zero chance it can fly politically.
 

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Not acceptable.
Imagine opening up international borders beforethe end of the year, when we are note en half way vaccinated?
Imagine the public health nightmare,the crippling of our public hospitals.
Give the hyperbole a rest.

Israel achieved herd immunity with about 50% to 55% of the population being vaccinated.

You don't need a 100% vaccination to open borders, and a few cases will not cause the situation to spiral out of control as long as you maintain sensible infection control procedures such as testing and contract tracing.
 
Not acceptable.
Imagine opening up international borders beforethe end of the year, when we are note en half way vaccinated?
Imagine the public health nightmare,the crippling of our public hospitals.

I agree. I'm in line with your interpretation of tolerable. Stalin would have found it no big deal.
 
Give the hyperbole a rest.

Israel achieved herd immunity with about 50% to 55% of the population being vaccinated.

You don't need a 100% vaccination to open borders, and a few cases will not cause the situation to spiral out of control as long as you maintain sensible infection control procedures such as testing and contract tracing.

The situation is different between a population that already has widespread infection, to one that doesn't have any.
 
I agree. I'm in line with your interpretation of tolerable. Stalin would have found it no big deal.
That is completely irrational. There is always a tolerable level of risk with infectious diseases. The only difference between covid and other infectious diseases is that people never think about the risk of other diseases.

The situation is different between a population that already has widespread infection, to one that doesn't have any.
No it's not. There is no difference between a person that is less susceptible to transmission because of a vaccine or because of previous infection.
 
Once you have enough of the most people vaccinated, that is exactly what you can do.

The UK currently has around 2,500 cases and 20 deaths per day. That is the equivalent of Australia having 1,000 cases and 8 deaths. That is very much a tolerable level of risk.
Are you happy to be one of those deaths?
 
Israel achieved herd immunity with about 50% to 55% of the population being vaccinated.
No they haven't. Experts estimate they're not far away from it, but it hasn't been achieved yet. The threshold for herd immunity is estimated at 65-70%.

 

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Lol, the claim was state lockdowns...

Brisbane city locked down for 8 days total across 2 seperate lockdowns that were localised.
Northern Beaches of Sydney locked down for a couple of weeks whilst 99% of state was free to continue life as normal

State of Victoria has been locked down for a combined total of 15 weeks since end of first nationwide lockdown

So, so comparable...

Don’t call me an idiot for correcting outright lies by your moron mates

You shut down Sydney and you effectively shut down NSW.
You shut down Adelaide and you effectively shut down SA.

Semantics are clouding your common sense.
 
The threshold for herd immunity is estimated at 65-70%.

'in Israel, more than half (5.3 million) its residents have been vaccinated and an additional 830,000 people have tested positive for the virus in the past, which should give them some natural immunity.
That works out as roughly 68% of the population who are likely to have antibodies in their blood which can fight off the virus.'


What about where the number of people who have been infected with the virus, is so vastly under-estimated, that a low herd immunity thresh-hold % target in one country, is mis-used by other countries who have a different rate of incurred but not reported (IBNR) COVID-19 infections.

IBNR is a term used by the Insurance Companies for all those claims that are out there but are yet to be reported or will never be reported.
A subset of these claims are IBNR claims that will never be reported, as opposed to the ones that arise from events that take years to show up.
The rates of IBNR are highest in things like Industrial Disease claims (Think asbestos related)

I can't see any factoring in of the infections not reported that will never be reported, into the 68%.

I'd assume that countries like Australia, have a much lower % of population with infections not reported that will never be reported, than countries like US/Israel/India/PNG/Indonesia which had had exponentially higher infection rates than Australia.

Likewise, Victoria v NSW v WA.
 
That is completely irrational. There is always a tolerable level of risk with infectious diseases. The only difference between covid and other infectious diseases is that people never think about the risk of other diseases.


No it's not. There is no difference between a person that is less susceptible to transmission because of a vaccine or because of previous infection.

We have neither.
 
Did he name any sources as that sounds incredibly stupid even by Scomos low standards?

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app
What is the alternative, once the whole Australian population is vaccinated and borders reopen without quarantine?
Or shall we have only bubbles with other zero case places like NZ and the Cook Islands for the foreseeable future?
 
Just listening to David Spears on ABC and they are talking about how the LNP want to open up and we will have to accept 1,000 cases per day and treat it like the flue.

What is the alternative, once the whole population is vaccinated and borders reopen without quarantine?

A Federal Labor Government?
 
WA? Nope
QLD? Nope
NSW? Hell no
TAS? No

SA is nearly every other state now? and theirs was only 3 days and cut short as soon as they realised it was an overreaction.

Victoria has had 3 statewide lockdowns
Qld? 2 or more curfews. Tick.
State of corruption? 2 or more curfews. Tick
SA? 2 or more curfews. Tick
Tas and WA less than 2 curfews. Tick
 
ScottyFrommarketing speaking in Perth yesterday - I have not heard it or seen the transcript.

45.10 on this - https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/mornings/mornings/13296912

he wasnt advocating for it, but warning opening too soon would let it happen:



“The first goal I think is to enable Australians who are vaccinated to be able to move and travel, particularly for important purposes,” the PM said in Perth.

“And secondly, for Australian residents and citizens from overseas who have been properly vaccinated, they will be able to come back in that way.

“If this works without major outbreaks, Australia could slowly consider a return to international travel.

“That would enable Australians to travel first for business and those sorts of things but ultimately if that worked well over a period of time and the data was showing that home-based quarantine was not creating any additional, scaled risks, that could lead to something more significant. That is how we move to the next step.

“That would require being vaccinated and I think that would be an important incentive to do that.”

“If we were to lift the borders and people come, then you would see those cases increase and Australians would have to become used to dealing with 1000 cases a week or more,’’ Mr Morrison said.

“Now, it is true that our most vulnerable populations would be vaccinated, but I don’t think Australians, particularly Western Australians, would welcome restrictions and closures and border shutting and all of those things, again, out of states concerned about the rising numbers of case numbers.

“So there needs to be, everyone needs to get on the same page with that. And so they’re the important threshold issues we’ve got to work together through as a National Cabinet. And that’s why I’m calling them back together again to work on that same operational tempo that we were during the pandemic, because these are the challenges we need to solve together now.”

Asked if the border restrictions needed to stay in place until “everybody in the world who can be vaccinated is vaccinated” the Prime Minister said it was “a moving situation.”

“We can’t control what’s happening in the rest of the world. We just have to understand what’s happening there,’’


“There are high risk countries, there are lower risk countries. We’re already open to New Zealand. I think I can see a future where we could be in a similar arrangement with Singapore and we’re working on that now. Other Pacific countries, that’s possible. But when you’re talking about countries, you know, for example, like Indonesia or India or Papua New Guinea or countries where we know that the virus is in a very strong form, including in Europe and even still the United Kingdom, the United States.

“You know, Australians, I don’t think would welcome the incursion of the virus into the country. So we have to weigh all of that up.”



What I think may be skewing this, is the earlier statement from Wednesday:



“And if we want to treat COVID like the flu, then we have to have the same tolerance for COVID as we have for the flu,’’ he said.

“And people get the flu and there would be cases of COVID if the international borders were lifted, there would be cases and we’d have to be confident and comfortable that that would be in Australia’s interest to have, in potentially large numbers of cases of COVID, knowing that it would not lead to the horrific outcomes that we saw, in particular in Victoria, when the second wave ripped through particularly Melbourne.”
 
he wasnt advocating for it, but warning opening too soon would let it happen:



“The first goal I think is to enable Australians who are vaccinated to be able to move and travel, particularly for important purposes,” the PM said in Perth.

“And secondly, for Australian residents and citizens from overseas who have been properly vaccinated, they will be able to come back in that way.

“If this works without major outbreaks, Australia could slowly consider a return to international travel.

“That would enable Australians to travel first for business and those sorts of things but ultimately if that worked well over a period of time and the data was showing that home-based quarantine was not creating any additional, scaled risks, that could lead to something more significant. That is how we move to the next step.

“That would require being vaccinated and I think that would be an important incentive to do that.”

“If we were to lift the borders and people come, then you would see those cases increase and Australians would have to become used to dealing with 1000 cases a week or more,’’ Mr Morrison said.

“Now, it is true that our most vulnerable populations would be vaccinated, but I don’t think Australians, particularly Western Australians, would welcome restrictions and closures and border shutting and all of those things, again, out of states concerned about the rising numbers of case numbers.

“So there needs to be, everyone needs to get on the same page with that. And so they’re the important threshold issues we’ve got to work together through as a National Cabinet. And that’s why I’m calling them back together again to work on that same operational tempo that we were during the pandemic, because these are the challenges we need to solve together now.”

Asked if the border restrictions needed to stay in place until “everybody in the world who can be vaccinated is vaccinated” the Prime Minister said it was “a moving situation.”

“We can’t control what’s happening in the rest of the world. We just have to understand what’s happening there,’’


“There are high risk countries, there are lower risk countries. We’re already open to New Zealand. I think I can see a future where we could be in a similar arrangement with Singapore and we’re working on that now. Other Pacific countries, that’s possible. But when you’re talking about countries, you know, for example, like Indonesia or India or Papua New Guinea or countries where we know that the virus is in a very strong form, including in Europe and even still the United Kingdom, the United States.

“You know, Australians, I don’t think would welcome the incursion of the virus into the country. So we have to weigh all of that up.”



What I think may be skewing this, is the earlier statement from Wednesday:



“And if we want to treat COVID like the flu, then we have to have the same tolerance for COVID as we have for the flu,’’ he said.

“And people get the flu and there would be cases of COVID if the international borders were lifted, there would be cases and we’d have to be confident and comfortable that that would be in Australia’s interest to have, in potentially large numbers of cases of COVID, knowing that it would not lead to the horrific outcomes that we saw, in particular in Victoria, when the second wave ripped through particularly Melbourne.”

It is clearly groundwork for softening the states up on agreeing to some sort of threshold which the states have not done yet and will not do. State governments are enormously popular after pursuing elimination strategies and 90% of the population will not give two *s if there is no international travel.

This is classic Morrison. He has monumentally screwed up the vaccine roll out but he is moving on anyway. It is all announcements and no work.

We cannot even talk about opening up when we have no idea when the vaccine roll out will even re-commence let alone be finished.

Morrison's entire political strategy is simply perpetual motion. Simply move onto the next issue. it does not matter if the last issue is a shambles, it does not matter if the last issue is critical to the success of the next. Just move on and hope everyone forgets. "Now is not the time for that".

He is infuriating. All spin and nothing else.
 
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