Play Nice Scott Morrison - How Long? Part 7 - Prosperity Theology, The Coal Man + His Bootlickers

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The political equivalent of being hit with a wet lettuce leaf...


I told the paper to tell write a sternly worded article.


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DaRick

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It's interesting, looking at the election pendulum the LNP's best chance at gains seems to be in NSW. Victoria doesn't matter to them unless there is a BIG swing (which could happen, and if it does, then election tactics become moot), WA looking a bit dicey could potentially lose four seats., not sure about TAS, they have a few close ones too.

His strategy may be to go chips in on NSW and some selected pork barrelling in other states to bail some water.

I recon he will either just win the election somehow, or get right royally rodgered.

I said yesterday that his best hope is a 1998-style election where he squeaks in despite a lower, or even negative, 2PP because Albo can't shift the margins enough in LNP-held seats. I haven't written him off because there are so many variables at play (pandemic + economy + voter memories), plus Albo is unconvincing, but I just can't see a better outcome for him than that, all things considered.

Looking at the states:

- QLD will definitely see a significant swing towards the ALP, due to reduced ON/UAP influence and more scattered preferences, plus OMICRON ripping through the state will definitely affect retirees (ON have been weak RE stopping COVID in general, and there is no Adani to funnel votes to the LNP). How much so is the question - if Queenslanders want you gone, they will swing hard - the 1989/1995/1998/2012/2015 state elections are a case in point, as are the 1996/2007/2013 federal elections.

- WA seems to swing pretty hard itself - the WA L/NP's effort in 2021 makes the QLD ALP's effort in 2012 look heroic - and the state election before that was a landslide. Plus, Clive is poison there and ScoMo isn't much better because of 1) association with Clive and 2) a need to duke it out with a very popular state premier. That said, they are quite parochial, and the federal ALP haven't performed there since one of their own was in charge (even Rudd fared poorly). There will be a swing towards the ALP all right, but Albo not being one of their own probably limits it - the question is by how much?

- ScoMo was never popular in VIC, and is even less popular down there now, though the federal ALP have always been relatively strong there. ScoMo's biggest threat down there seems to come down to independents turning blue-ribbon seats, with the Greens playing a minor role in chipping away at their PV (Higgins, Kooyong, Flinders, Goldstein). Deciding to portray himself as being anti-China won't do him many favours in Chisholm either.

- I doubt much changes in SA in terms of seats. People talk about Boothby swinging to the ALP, but it never quite happens. Plus South Australians have Steven Marshall - ironically one of the more competent state L/NP premiers - to take some of their anger out on.

- TAS has the most competent L/NP government in the country, but they're like a pendulum - swinging randomly back and forth. In 2016 they swung to the ALP, then away in 2019. I think they swing back in 2022.

- I don't doubt that NSW is, or at least was, their best chance at picking up ALP seats (Eden-Monaro, Warringah, Western Sydney). However, Western Sydney was subject to Berejiklian's selective lockdown much more than the East, plus NSW has suffered the most from this outbreak. Plus, their leader is L/NP. This is why John Howard never liked state governments from the same party being in charge - if they screwed up, particularly during or close to election time - there was a good chance that it would rebound on the Feds, plus the state and federal governments taking contrary positions just makes the LNP as a whole look more divided, which isn't conductive to winning votes.

Also, from what I've heard ScoMo's shtick just doesn't resonate in Wentworth, and he's got a bit of Latham's brash, bullying nature. Latham wasn't popular with doctor's wives, and I get the impression ScoMo isn't that much more popular with them. He might well lose Wentworth, especially since he barely held on in 2019 and is in a much weaker position today.

EDIT: Also, there's no Fraser ******* Anning in QLD to shift votes the LNP's way, which complicates things a little for ScoMo.
 
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I said yesterday that his best hope is a 1998-style election where he squeaks in despite a lower, or even negative, 2PP because Albo can't shift the margins enough in LNP-held seats. I haven't written him off because there are so many variables at play (pandemic + economy + voter memories), plus Albo is unconvincing, but I just can't see a better outcome for him than that, all things considered.

Looking at the states:

- QLD will definitely see a significant swing towards the ALP, due to reduced ON/UAP influence and more scattered preferences, plus OMICRON ripping through the state will definitely affect retirees (ON have been weak RE stopping COVID in general, and there is no Adani to funnel votes to the LNP). How much so is the question - if Queenslanders want you gone, they will swing hard - the 1989/1995/1998/2012/2015 state elections are a case in point, as are the 1996/2007/2013 federal elections.

- WA seems to swing pretty hard itself - the WA L/NP's effort in 2021 makes the QLD ALP's effort in 2012 look heroic - and the state election before that was a landslide. Plus, Clive is poison there and ScoMo isn't much better because of 1) association with Clive and 2) a need to duke it out with a very popular state premier. That said, they are quite parochial, and the federal ALP haven't performed there since one of their own was in charge (even Rudd fared poorly). There will be a swing towards the ALP all right, but Albo not being one of their own probably limits it - the question is by how much?

- ScoMo was never popular in VIC, and is even less popular down there now, though the federal ALP have always been relatively strong there. ScoMo's biggest threat down there seems to come down to independents turning blue-ribbon seats, with the Greens playing a minor role in chipping away at their PV (Higgins, Kooyong, Flinders, Goldstein). Deciding to portray himself as being anti-China won't do him many favours in Chisholm either.

- I doubt much changes in SA in terms of seats. People talk about Boothby swinging to the ALP, but it never quite happens. Plus South Australians have Steven Marshall - ironically one of the more competent state L/NP premiers - to take some of their anger out on.

- TAS has the most competent L/NP government in the country, but they're like a pendulum - swinging randomly back and forth. In 2016 they swung to the ALP, then away in 2019. I think they swing back in 2022.

- I don't doubt that NSW is, or at least was, their best chance at picking up ALP seats (Eden-Monaro, Warringah, Western Sydney). However, Western Sydney was subject to Berejiklian's selective lockdown much more than the East, plus NSW has suffered the most from this outbreak. Plus, their leader is L/NP. This is why John Howard never liked state governments from the same party being in charge - if they screwed up, particularly during or close to election time - there was a good chance that it would rebound on the Feds, plus the state and federal governments taking contrary positions just makes the LNP as a whole look more divided, which isn't conductive to winning votes.

Also, from what I've heard ScoMo's shtick just doesn't resonate in Wentworth, and he's got a bit of Latham's brash, bullying nature. Latham wasn't popular with doctor's wives, and I get the impression ScoMo isn't that much more popular with them. He might well lose Wentworth, especially since he barely held on in 2019 and is in a much weaker position today.

EDIT: Also, there's no Fraser ******* Anning in QLD to shift votes the LNP's way, which complicates things a little for ScoMo.

One thing to remember as well is that effectively LNP are starting one seat down and the ALP are starting one seat up due to the redistributions in WA and VIC.
 

DaRick

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Call the election Scummo you fraud.

He won't; you only call early elections from a position of strength, not weakness.

Early elections are effective when the opposition leader is clearly unelectable (Latham) or when there's obvious division in the oppositon ranks (Joh for PM). When you're just trying to surprise the opposition, they either send you out of government (Campbell Newman in 2015) or unnecessarily weaken your position (Gillard 2010, Turnbull 2016).

One thing to remember as well is that effectively LNP are starting one seat down and the ALP are starting one seat up due to the redistributions in WA and VIC.

Thanks; I didn't know that.

Although redistributions did favour the ALP in 2019 as well.
 

Christopher Buttersnip

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He is an active member and spruker for a cult that rapes children.
He has never spoken out about members of his cult who have committed child rape

By staying silent, that is in effect giving them tacit approval

(Does your argument "If all you can come up with is his membership of a church that was guilty of that horror then don't bother" apply to members of the LNP and their politics?)
I've been more critical than most of the Catholic Church and not only on child rape but euthanasia, birth control, abortion too. However it's not a cult.

If you'd taken any time look you'd know Fr Bob has been an active critic of his church and the hierarchy for decades. To the point, he was a burr under the saddle of many of the red caps including Hart and Pell which included him railing against sexual abuse by the clergy and not confined to children.

uOja6bX.jpg


In Bob we Trust

Some "staying silent"

And unlike many of his churches paid members he actively spent time - and still does - helping the poor and oppressed.

Your response was not only ill-informed it didn't address the central question of how Fr Bob "enabled" child rape. That would be because it was a lie.
 

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I've been more critical than most of the Catholic Church and not only on child rape but euthanasia, birth control, abortion too. However it's not a cult.

If you'd taken any time look you'd know Fr Bob has been an active critic of his church and the hierarchy for decades. To the point, he was a burr under the saddle of many of the red caps including Hart and Pell which included him railing against sexual abuse by the clergy and not confined to children.

uOja6bX.jpg


In Bob we Trust

Some "staying silent"

And unlike many of his churches paid members he actively spent time - and still does - helping the poor and oppressed.

Your response was not only ill-informed it didn't address the central question of how Fr Bob "enabled" child rape. That would be because it was a lie.
The old mantra about being inside the tent pissing out only works if you piss out.

Ol bob did exactly that
 
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What a shame I'll be at work and will miss this. Check out the list of speakers....

FJWlDwlaQAAlFSF
Wow the Kennedy's must be really disappointed in that one.

Looks like a who who of complete idiots.

Doubt you'd get one single coherent sentence out of the entire group.
 

DaRick

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What's the saying "The standard you walk past is the standard you accept." I guess it doesn't apply to Shonky Scott as he has no perceptible standards so it's a free-for-all for Christensen, Rennick, Canavan, Antic .......



And this.



The good people of Dawson (whom I despise for personal reasons) are not voting for Christensen, so it's a moot point.
 
What a shame I'll be at work and will miss this. Check out the list of speakers....

FJWlDwlaQAAlFSF
if someone is logging in as a "interested bserver" (ie going to harass and troll) I give permission for you to let Mr Kelly know that I have reported him to the domestic terrorist hotline.
 

E Shed

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Wow the Kennedy's must be really disappointed in that one.

Looks like a who who of complete idiots.

Doubt you'd get one single coherent sentence out of the entire group.

Vomiting a bit looking at this.
What an awful collection of individuals.
Nothing could make me watch this.
What does it even mean? Prayer & Pushback?


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