Scottish Independance

[Lester Burnham]

Sturgeon now claiming that the Scottish government is beginning work on a second referendum.

Can't see it happening any time soon. Losing a second vote would kill the issue. And polls indicate that despite the Brexit result Scots would still vote to stay in the UK.

The latest polling evidence suggested breaking with Brussels would not make Scots any more likely to want secession from Britain.

A TNS survey of 1,008 Scottish voters between May 4 and 22 found that 56 per cent of Scots would vote to stay in the UK post-Brexit, excluding "don't know" voters.​

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-25/brexit-vote-puts-british-unity-in-question/7543320

 

[Play by Numbers]

Can't see it happening any time soon. Losing a second vote would kill the issue. And polls indicate that despite the Brexit result Scots would still vote to stay in the UK.

The latest polling evidence suggested breaking with Brussels would not make Scots any more likely to want secession from Britain.

A TNS survey of 1,008 Scottish voters between May 4 and 22 found that 56 per cent of Scots would vote to stay in the UK post-Brexit, excluding "don't know" voters.​

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-25/brexit-vote-puts-british-unity-in-question/7543320

The polls were pre-Brexit polls.

When financial hardship starts to set in, say in two to 3 years, once arcticle 50 is activated and British banks lose their EU passports, EU grants are removed and relationships become strained between westminster and hollyrood, I suspect Scotland will again explore devolution.

The only thing I can see stopping the process, is Spain promising to veto a Scottish bid, to join the EU.

 

[swingdog]

The polls were pre-Brexit polls.

When financial hardship starts to set in, say in two to 3 years, once arcticle 50 is activated and British banks lose their EU passports, EU grants are removed and relationships become strained between westminster and hollyrood, I suspect Scotland will again explore devolution.

The only thing I can see stopping the process, is Spain promising to veto a Scottish bid, to join the EU.

That veto might be different if Scotland is applying as an independent country, rather than as a region like Catalunya.

 

[Play by Numbers]

That veto might be different if Scotland is applying as an independent country, rather than as a region like Catalunya.

And thats the issue. How quickly can the Scots expidite devolution. Given the process to join the EU would take 5 years at minimum, but devolution could take up to 10, they will be relying on the UK to negotiate in good faith, whilst Scotland negotiates with the EU. Meaning, they will be negotiating membership post a referendum still as part of a UK.

If all works perfectly, I imagine you would have a refferendum in 3-4 years, a devolution trigger a year or two after that and Scotland begins the EU application process which would take 5 years to complete. At minimum it would be 10-15 years before Scotland is independant and a member of the EU.

It will probably happen, but it will take a long time.

NI is more concerning. There are calls for reunification, and with the recent rise of smaller paramillitary groups and a loss of EU funding, for many of the unionist orgs, it could lead to violence.

 

[Sydney Bloods]

That veto might be different if Scotland is applying as an independent country, rather than as a region like Catalunya.

except this ignores that the reason the Spaniards are against an Scotland joining the EU, it's because Catalonia nationalists have seized upon the idea of an independent Catalonia off the back of Scotlands push for independence and are threatening to have Catalonia kicked out of the EU should they claim there independence.

the entire point of opposing Scotland has nothing to do with Scotland, its about quelling any ideas about a successful independent Catalonian state.

 

[swingdog]

except this ignores that the reason the Spaniards are against an Scotland joining the EU, it's because Catalonia nationalists have seized upon the idea of an independent Catalonia off the back of Scotlands push for independence and are threatening to have Catalonia kicked out of the EU should they claim there independence.

the entire point of opposing Scotland has nothing to do with Scotland, its about quelling any ideas about a successful independent Catalonian state.

Not sure they could oppose them if it was an independent country seeking to join. That's different.

 

[Sydney Bloods]

Not sure they could oppose them if it was an independent country seeking to join. That's different.

doesn't change anything, all EU members have to vote in the affirmative to allow a new member state in. if any of the now 27 member states votes no, there is no entry, doesn't matter if its an independent state or a region.

This is what prevented the UK for joining what was then the ECC in the first place as france voted down the UK's entry on two separate occasions and scuttled further negotiations for over a decade. only after 12 years, a change in presidency in France and a ton of concessions on behalf of the UK were the english allowed in.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

 

[camsmith]

If trade is at all important, they trade far more with England (65% of all Scottish exports) than the EU so detaching from England to join the EU seems a bit strange. Obviously there are other factors in play.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

If trade is at all important, they trade far more with England (65% of all Scottish exports) than the EU so detaching from England to join the EU seems a bit strange. Obviously there are other factors in play.

Well if trade was important the UK wouldnt have voted to exit.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Malifice are you a moderator who can fix the awful spelling in the title?

 

[HairyO]

Well if trade was important the UK wouldnt have voted to exit.

The EU will still trade with the UK. But it will be under agreed terms, not the EU's terms.

I wonder if our farmers are looking at reviving trade with the UK now that the UK doesnt have to buy lesser quality produce from France.

 

[Todman]

Lol, wishful thinking. Bugger all pro Europe tories are left. The 2010 intake is supposedly extremely anti Europe (good old Boris knows which way the wind is blowing) . Cameron knows if he doesn't do something re freedom of movement he is in trouble. EU wont let him. So what can he do?

Look like a useless tool (just as he has re Euro human rights) or campaign to leave the EU? Not much of a choice, I reckon he will go for column A and risk Boris deposing him.

Visionary, and the lotto numbers are?

 

[VineyIsLORD]

The EU will still trade with the UK. But it will be under agreed terms, not the EU's terms.

I wonder if our farmers are looking at reviving trade with the UK now that the UK doesnt have to buy lesser quality produce from France.

What motivation do the EU have to give the UK better terms than they previously had as members of the EU?

 

[HairyO]

What motivation do the EU have to give the UK better terms than they previously had as members of the EU?

Because they need a strong economy trading with them so they can fund all the basketcases they let in. Germany is not going to want to do it all. Germans are getting sick of it.

 

[VineyIsLORD]

Because they need a strong economy trading with them so they can fund all the basketcases they let in. Germany is not going to want to do it all. Germans are getting sick of it.

That isnt really answering my question.

For what reason would the EU effectively REWARD the UK for leaving?

Far more likely the UK has to abide by the same rules and pay a huge fee for doing so (like Norway) without any representation at the bargaining table.

 

[HairyO]

That isnt really answering my question.

For what reason would the EU effectively REWARD the UK for leaving?

Because they may not have a choice as much as they want to punish them.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

The polls were pre-Brexit polls.

When financial hardship starts to set in, say in two to 3 years, once arcticle 50 is activated and British banks lose their EU passports, EU grants are removed and relationships become strained between westminster and hollyrood, I suspect Scotland will again explore devolution.

The only thing I can see stopping the process, is Spain promising to veto a Scottish bid, to join the EU.

1. Scotland can't just call another referendum on their own accord. That's up to the UK parliament.
2. Scotland's deficit is and will be too large for them to gain EU membership.
3. Scotland's economic ties to the UK are far more valuable than it's economic ties to the EU.

I don't see Scots voting to leave the UK when that will cause more economic strife and further inhibit their capacity to join the EU due to deficits around 8-10 percent.The SNP can't join the EU without engaging in electoral suicide through extreme austerity measures.

 

[Todman]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...idents-want-Scotland-independent-country.html

Most Scots still want to stay in Britain despite a Brexit vote, a new poll has revealed.

In a blow to Nicola Sturgeon, a total of 53 per cent of those quizzed said they want to remain in the UK.

The YouGov poll found 47 per cent want Scotland to become an independent country.

The results show little difference since before the referendum in May - when the figures were 55 per cent wanting to stay and 45 per cent favouring independence.

 

[medusala]

The polls were pre-Brexit polls..

Recent one was post Brexit

When financial hardship starts to set in, say in two to 3 years, once arcticle 50 is activated and British banks lose their EU passports, EU grants are removed and relationships become strained between westminster and hollyrood, I suspect Scotland will again explore devolution.[/QUOTE]

Passporting rights isnt a huge issue for UK based banks, EUR clearing far more so. Very few political journos have a clue about the City.

 

[medusala]

Because they need a strong economy trading with them so they can fund all the basketcases they let in. Germany is not going to want to do it all. Germans are getting sick of it.

This. Germany isnt going to wear the burden of Southern Europe alone. Now the other big northern Europe / non Latin player has left the table, they will change their tune. Plus there is the rather large issue of Deutsche Bank.

 

[Mofra]

This. Germany isnt going to wear the burden of Southern Europe alone. Now the other big northern Europe / non Latin player has left the table, they will change their tune. Plus there is the rather large issue of Deutsche Bank.

Keeping low GDP states in the EU keeps the Euro under control which means Germany's mammoth manufacturing sector is more competitive globally.
Merkel is no fool and she certainly isn't bailing out smaller countries out of some sense of European solidarity or altruism.

 

[medusala]

Keeping low GDP states in the EU keeps the Euro under control which means Germany's mammoth manufacturing sector is more competitive globally.
Merkel is no fool and she certainly isn't bailing out smaller countries out of some sense of European solidarity or altruism.

See where cash flows go re Greece bail out. In one door and out the other.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-05/german-study-proves-it-–-95-greek-bailout-money-went-banks

Some 95 percent of the 220 billion euros disbursed to Greece since the start of the financial crisis as loans from the bailout mechanism has been directed toward saving the European banks. That means about 210 billion euros was eventually channeled to the eurozone credit sector while just 5 percent ended up in state coffers, according to a study by the European School of Management and Technology (ESMT) in Berlin.