Egga
Cancelled
North Melbourne - 2018 Luke Davies-Uniacke and Paul Ahern Player Sponsor
North Melbourne - 2016 Daw & Anderson Player Sponsor
North Melbourne - 2015 Daw & MacMillan Player Sponsor
North Melbourne - 2014 Daw, Black, Gibson Player Sponsor
North Melbourne - 2013 Daw, Black and Gibson Player Sponsorship
- Nov 10, 2009
- 3,418
- 8,489
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
I'm interested in a more informed discussion of our list turnover over the next 4-6 years, what this means for our on-field fortunes, our off-field recruitment and the prospects of some individual players on our list.
For the purposes of stimulating discussion, I have:
*Of course, we all know there are lots of caveats and unknowns with these types of predictions, such as career ending injuries, trades in and out and rates at which players develop or age. So, I'm happy for people to have different views about our best 23, exactly how many years certain players may have left, etc. But I'm more interested in people's conclusions about the next 5 years.
So, with this in mind.....
1) My best 23 is:
B: Wright, Tarrant, Hansen
HB: Atley, Thompson, Macmillan
C: Dal Santo, Ziebell, Wells
HF: Harvey, Waite, Higgins
F: Brown, Petrie, Thomas
Foll: Goldstein, Cunnington, Swallow
I/C from: Anderson, Garner, Firrito, Gibson, Jacobs
2&3) Potential Ins and Outs over the next 6 years (age at April 2016 in brackets)
4) Conclusion 1: Our Prospects
2016: I believe our list will be in better shape to contend for a flag than in 2015. We add Wells and Anderson and another year of experience and conditioning to the whole list. Firrito may be the only older player struggling to hold on.
2017: Whichever year we lose Harvey I expect us to take a small step backwards. I have guessed 2017 to be the year we lose Boomer and Spud, but replace them with LMac and Dumont (or perhaps Turner or Clarke). These are good additions and I still see us as a solid top 8 team in 2017.
2018: I expect us to go backwards, with potential departures of Wells, Dal Santo, Petrie and Waite. These are very difficult players to replace. Our recently recruited key position players will still be maturing and so far we have no way of knowing what Durdin, Black, McKay or even Daw might offer us. I hope Garner, Anderson, McDonald and others are exciting us with their talent.
2019: This is the year I expect us to bottom out, with departures that could include Swallow, Thompson, Hansen and Gibson. By this stage, we may have turned over more than half our best 18 in the space of three years.
2020 and 2021: Our rise up the ladder should begin anew as we have few departures; and the Ziebell/ Cunners era players will still be at the height of their powers while our recent young draftees are coming of age. How good are they and how far will they take us? Only time will tell.
Conclusion 2: Recruitment
We have done well to build a very versatile list, with many dual position players who will help us fill gaps created by retirements over the next 3-4 years.
We need to prioritise the recruitment of 1 or 2 solid key position players. Currently, we would need all of Durdin, Nielson, McKay, plus either Black or Daw to become players (while Brown continues to develop) just to cover our departures. Most of these guys may be 5+ years away from maturing into their roles.
Conclusion 3: Individual Players
I would like to see the club being ruthless at the trade table next year if it looks like we have peaked. For example:
Thompson, Hansen and Swallow would all likely have trade value, but may not be around when north makes its next run
Wood/ Black/ Daw may all be competing for the same spot on the list
What do you think?
For the purposes of stimulating discussion, I have:
- Started with our 'best 23' (assuming we will always have at least 1 player injured/ suspended)
- Made a best guess about when each of the older players may retire (based on age, form and fitness)*
- Considered who might be available to replace them*
- Made some tentative conclusions about what this might mean for our club's prospects in the coming year
*Of course, we all know there are lots of caveats and unknowns with these types of predictions, such as career ending injuries, trades in and out and rates at which players develop or age. So, I'm happy for people to have different views about our best 23, exactly how many years certain players may have left, etc. But I'm more interested in people's conclusions about the next 5 years.
So, with this in mind.....
1) My best 23 is:
B: Wright, Tarrant, Hansen
HB: Atley, Thompson, Macmillan
C: Dal Santo, Ziebell, Wells
HF: Harvey, Waite, Higgins
F: Brown, Petrie, Thomas
Foll: Goldstein, Cunnington, Swallow
I/C from: Anderson, Garner, Firrito, Gibson, Jacobs
2&3) Potential Ins and Outs over the next 6 years (age at April 2016 in brackets)
4) Conclusion 1: Our Prospects
2016: I believe our list will be in better shape to contend for a flag than in 2015. We add Wells and Anderson and another year of experience and conditioning to the whole list. Firrito may be the only older player struggling to hold on.
2017: Whichever year we lose Harvey I expect us to take a small step backwards. I have guessed 2017 to be the year we lose Boomer and Spud, but replace them with LMac and Dumont (or perhaps Turner or Clarke). These are good additions and I still see us as a solid top 8 team in 2017.
2018: I expect us to go backwards, with potential departures of Wells, Dal Santo, Petrie and Waite. These are very difficult players to replace. Our recently recruited key position players will still be maturing and so far we have no way of knowing what Durdin, Black, McKay or even Daw might offer us. I hope Garner, Anderson, McDonald and others are exciting us with their talent.
2019: This is the year I expect us to bottom out, with departures that could include Swallow, Thompson, Hansen and Gibson. By this stage, we may have turned over more than half our best 18 in the space of three years.
2020 and 2021: Our rise up the ladder should begin anew as we have few departures; and the Ziebell/ Cunners era players will still be at the height of their powers while our recent young draftees are coming of age. How good are they and how far will they take us? Only time will tell.
Conclusion 2: Recruitment
We have done well to build a very versatile list, with many dual position players who will help us fill gaps created by retirements over the next 3-4 years.
We need to prioritise the recruitment of 1 or 2 solid key position players. Currently, we would need all of Durdin, Nielson, McKay, plus either Black or Daw to become players (while Brown continues to develop) just to cover our departures. Most of these guys may be 5+ years away from maturing into their roles.
Conclusion 3: Individual Players
I would like to see the club being ruthless at the trade table next year if it looks like we have peaked. For example:
Thompson, Hansen and Swallow would all likely have trade value, but may not be around when north makes its next run
Wood/ Black/ Daw may all be competing for the same spot on the list
What do you think?
