Season 2012 wide open.

Howard Moon

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I'll preface this by saying I know we and all our fans are up and about right now... and this isnt designed to say that we are going to win the flag.

But

This season reminds me alot of 1993. You could say we were in the right place at the right time that year, and it probably fell into our lap. It was a year of flux.. the dominant sides of the years before were in decline or having an off year and the new powers were not quite there yet. In reality we got a flag we probably had no right to win because of the sofness of the year.

I reckon this year seems much the same... the dominant sides of the past few years Coll/Geel are slightly in decline. WCE/SYD/Carl are they there yet? Hawthorn the obvious threat. Just like in 93 you could feasibly see any one of 6 or more teams actually winning it this year.

It could easily fall into the lap of a Syd, a WCE, or even an.. Essendon.

We do seem to be building something here.... I reckon this year there is a gap in the market and whoever peaks at the right time gets it.. its anyones flag for the first time in a long time!

anyone Agree? disagree? Whos actually favorite? Could we sneak one a few years too early like in 93?
 

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#2
My opinion is that it's Round 4 and that anything could happen.

Still, it is actually exciting that we can see things like Richmond coming within a bee's whatsit at Kardinia Park (why oh why they don't take the game on in the last 10 minutes when the chips are down is beyond me, whether the opposition is GC or Geelong), GWS providing a bit of niggle for a quarter, GC threatening us, Port testing us and the Pies, et cetera. If the trend was to continue (not that I think it necessarily will), we might even see a premier come from outside the Top 4.

At this point though, I must say it's disappointing we weren't able to ramp up percentage at Carrara.
 

daffo

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#3
IMO Essendon won't win the flag, we won't make top four but with an 4-0 start to the year, we should make finals which will be a great effort for the club.
 

Howard Moon

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early assments of the top bracket of teams....

Collingwood - seem to be tailing off a bit.. new coach, new ideas, but having trouble implemting new ideas. Injury ravaged but dont seem as hungry as before - will be there abouts

Geelong - may just be tipping over the edge after being up for so many years - will be there abouts

Hawthorn - seem like flag favs, have had the hurt of a few past year losses which you need, if they dont choke should be close to premiers.

WCE - look a force to be reckoned with but might just be a year away.. home games will get them most of the way there.. home finals help even more - will give it a shake

SYD - flying under the radar as usual, by virtue of home games should make it easy to the finals and home finals will help them further... do they have the team to go all the way? have doubts.

CARL - have a good list of players and were flying.. last week was a week off for them, they will still be there abouts but i still think they lack soemthing.

ESS- have a list that is building together and are on a roll.. but same happened last year. Are better equpped this year to deal with the injuries and fatigue i think. -bottom half of the 8 then its up in the air!

FREO - have always had a decent list but lyon has given them resolve and have won in melb already... home games should get them close to a home final. - in the mix

theres 7 to begin with without mentioning maybes like stk, nth ect.

You could nearly argue that any of the 7 sides mentioned could nearly win it and it wouldnt be a suprise from here..

its going to be a competeitive open season and the winner could come from anywhere.
 

Bombers36

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#10
Indeed it is wide open

I think

Weagles
Hawks
Geelong
Blues

are all certainities for the 8

Swans & Freo will very very likely make it.

Essendon, Collingwood, Adelaide, Saints & North will likely fight out last 2 spots

The 4 points on Wednesday is crucial and Id just about go as far as to say whoever wins that game will make the 8.

Also - the flag could potentially be won from the bottom half of the 8 this year, but i really like the WA sides and think one of them will at least play off in the grand final.
 

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Knight Ryders

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#12
The only team that I fear is .... well actually it is a ground. Anyone we play at Subiaco is fearsome but otherwise I think we can take it up to all teams.

The most important 5 players to our structure that we need to ensure that we stay competitive is Watson, Ryder, Stanton, Fletcher and Hurley. Keep these blokes on the ground for most of the year and we can surprise.

Collingwood can bounce back with Tarrant, Reid, Brown and Didak to come back in. Their rucks are their weakest link at the moment and their biggest concern.

Geelong - lost a lot of experience and have a lot of kids playing. I think they've come back to the pack a little but hard to imagine they won't build throughout the year. Having more kids in the team might mean that they can't rest as many stars throughout the year.

Hawks - backline still a concern. Need to get some more out of Cyril and will welcome the return of Hodge.

WCE - my pick to sneak a premiership from early February. They've got the aura back.

Sydney - About the same us. Need to see some more to be convinced and want to see how they go at the G this year. Goodes and Mumford carried them into the finals last year but there are more contributors this year.

Freo - all depends on Sandilands staying fit. They've still got improvement to come from Mundy and Barlow.

Very competitive top 8!
 

Howard Moon

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great analysis!!

i personally am going out on a limb and am gunna say Collingwood can't win the flag...

the two players they chased like crazy to get them a flag were Ball and Jolly. With Ball now out i think they really lack that type of player and have no replacment. And i reckon Jollys knee is giving him more grief than they are letting on.. will struggle to play the year out. Wood is well.. dead Wood, the loss of Leigh Brown is bigger then most give credit for.

Add to this the change of coach and structure... and the natural loss of intensity and desire post premiership and i think they drop right off this year... top 4 maybe..top 8 definatley.


they will probably make a fool of me now :p
 

blitzer

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#14
It definitely doesn't appear to the cookie-cutter year that we have all grown accustomed to where we have 1,2,3 teams head and shoulders above the rest, a couple of teams that can beat the lower ranked teams consistently but not the top 3 and then a few stragglers finishing up the rest of the 8. This year I reckon there's genuinely about 6 or 7 pretty good sides and these numbers will thin as the year goes on probably down to 3-5 sides.

Right now we are in that the main group of the 6 or 7 good sides. We need to be on top of all areas, injuries included if we want to be in the final group of the serious contenders. One thing that I have been pleased about is improved depth. Its clear to me that when we are beating quality sides like Carlton with a lot of guys not available (even though they are mostly fringe players) that we have come a fair way from previous years in this area. I genuinely think we have picked up a few guys, that can not only come in and play a role if required but are capable of some quality football.
Our team seems more mature, and more capable of winning even when things don't go our way early. However it is still very early stages yet and for mine the real test comes around rounds 8, 9, 10 when historically we've found the AFL to become a bit of a hard slog and we haven't been able to maintain our early intensity, I think this year we can change that.

In terms of other sides, West Coast are a really dangerous side and their strengths are hard to counter. Their ruck duo really has no counter, their tall forwards are quality and their defence is really underated. Their midfield is also full of genuine inside ball winners. However their long term injuries to best 22 players could hurt them as the year goes on.

Hawks are quality that has faced a really hard draw thus far. They have quality all over the list apart from their tall defenders. If worst comes to worst they still have the option of Roughead in defence though. Will be thereabouts.

Carlton are a really good side, that lacks a second good tall forward (or a defender if Henderson plays forward). Great midfield, probably the best running team, defence is now solid, forward line is great when firing and should get better with Walker to come in, Rucks are solid. Top 4.

Geelong in my opinion have finally slowed enough to be a 5-8 side rather than a top 4 side. However they do still have some great quality players that on their day will allow them to beat any side.

Collingwood - great side with a lousy injury run, long and short term injuries to depth and top players. Huge structural problems in defence right now. Would have been top 4 with a good run with injuries, will be 5-8 now.

Sydney - Could be top 4, Mumford's back is a bit of a concern though. They will need him later in the year. Quality all over the ground. Kennedy one of the form players in the comp. Defence underated.

Freo - No Idea I tip the bastards wrong every week.
 

raskolnikov

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#16
The difference is that in 93 we still had experienced players like Thompson, Harvey, Salmon, O'Donnell and Watson in the side to complement the young guns. This year the only really experienced player is Fletch. We need a couple of years finals experience before we are a premiership threat.
 

yaco55

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#18
Leaning towards Carlton VS West Coast.

Coasters will win enough games and have two home finals - Carlton matches up well against the other contenders.

Collingwood have little depth and think Geelong are sliding and the Hawks can't get over the line against the top teams.

A very even year.
 

Howard Moon

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that's cool.. most peoples tips proved my point

not one person has tipped the same winner/gf combo.

in the past few years its always been the same top couple and then the rest were miles behind.

but now... The rest have caught up and the top guys have fallen. Bring on a season of nightmarish tips and missed multi bets!

and hopefully a surprise gf winner!
 

fishardansin

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#21
Will be interesting how our boys go if we can get close to a full list back for the second half of the season, especially the most important players.
 

Howard Moon

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everyone in the media thought there would be a 2-3 year window before GC and GWS statred to win things.. i still somehow don't see it.

was just the media panicking about all the draft concessions and what not.

Could almost argue that GC have gone backwards.
 

BrunoV

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#23
To quote myself:

From what I've seen Steinberg does not strike me as particularly good at applying pressure or working at ground level. For a wet day I'd prefer selecting someone with proper defensive skills (i.e. a defender) to play a defensive forward role or a genuine KPF rather than a lightly built 191cm boy. Baguley/Davis/other small will be better placed to defend and Carlisle is much more likely to draw the attention of O'Brien/Maxwell (and free other players)

We are obviously still in the midst of developing the list (and Steinberg could do with some big game exposure) but we need to throw absolutely everything at winning tomorrow's game. To me this means as much run and ground level grunt as possible (and no speculative "development" games). If we get up we are 5-0 with a 10 day break until we face Brisbane at Etihad. We should risk injury and exhaustion because we can afford to do it - Myers, Dempsey, Colyer and NLM owuld have to be possibilities for round 6 given the length of the break.

We are placed, based on our draw, to genuinely attack the top 4 (and at least 5th position) from 5-0. Seriously, we are already two games up on Geelong, Hawthorn and Collingwood. If we can maintain or extend the gap they are not going to make up the difference before round 13 at the earliest - none of the sides mentioned are in particularly good form either.

I quite like what Dermie was saying at the start of the year about predicting the preiership winner. All we can really predict is the ladder spot this early in the year.

Rather than going all the way and saying that we can steal a flag I think that we can "steal" a top four spot (and it is likely that we can finish 5th). This would be an almost remarkable achievement given the stage of development we seem to be in.

A top 4 finish would not necessarily be a true reflection of our side relative to the sides that would potentially finish lower than us. Assuming an upward trend in form of a "superior" side below us I could even see us going out in straight sets. The fact is that if we can get over the filth tomorrow there is no reason we would fall out of the top 4 before round 13 (based purely on our draw) - ladder positions do not dramatically change once we are that far into the season.

This is shaping as a year in which the premier could come from a side outside of the top 4 because of the way the draw has fallen for Sydney/Us/WCE and Geelong/Hawthorn/Collingwood. The best sides have spent the openng month of the season beating the **** out of each other which will work to our advantage. I do not subscribe to the theory that you need a top 4 spot to win the flag. The dominance of the top 4 (and in effect top 2 and occasionally 3) has been the result of a significant lack of depth in the AFL. Every year (by default) the top 4 spot becomes meaningless for the two sides who loose the qualifying finals - come the preliminary final the second chance/week rest does not seem to be that significant.
 

Orazio2Joe

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#24
The difference is that in 93 we still had experienced players like Thompson, Harvey, Salmon, O'Donnell and Watson in the side to complement the young guns. This year the only really experienced player is Fletch. We need a couple of years finals experience before we are a premiership threat.
This is misleading IMO. By 1993, these guys had similar amounts of experience (Tim Watson excluded) as guys like Winders, Stanton, Watson, Hille, Dyson and Monfires have now. Given the older guys had finals experience, but 1993 had similar traits to our squad now. Not saying it will end up in the same result, just pointing out age demographic similarities.
 
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#25
This is misleading IMO. By 1993, these guys had similar amounts of experience (Tim Watson excluded) as guys like Winders, Stanton, Watson, Hille, Dyson and Monfires have now. Given the older guys had finals experience, but 1993 had similar traits to our squad now. Not saying it will end up in the same result, just pointing out age demographic similarities.
It's a pretty dramatic difference, though. Thompson, Harvey, Salmon, and Watson were all already premiership players. Not the case for our older players, Fletcher excluded.

And for that matter O'Donnell, Bewick, Daniher, Grenvold, Long and Somerville had all played in a Grand Final before. Spike is the only one who fits into that category.
 
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