Analysis Season 2015

[Mr Ripper]

Simple target: 4 goals per quarter. Should get us 20-21 wins.

 

[POBT]

Golby Merrett Harwood
Adcock Maguire CBeams
Hanley Redden Rich
Zorko Staker Christensen
Green Leuenberger Mayes

Martin DBeams Rockliff

McGuane, Paparone, Bewick, Lester

No 1st or 2nd year players. The only third year players are on the bench or in a pocket. Just about every player has played 20+ games.

That's not my preferred side but I make the point that we can afford to be a bit more selective about which youngsters to play when and in what role.

 

[John]

mainly due to organic improvement

I know that I have taken this in isolation (and will add that I have no opinion on your opinion per se) but can you please tell me what you mean by organic improvement? Genuinely curious.

 

[lukiuslion]

I know that I have taken this in isolation (and will add that I have no opinion on your opinion per se) but can you please tell me what you mean by organic improvement? Genuinely curious.

Organic improvement, natural improvement from within, not necessarily from any particular outside interference or influence? Haha does that work?

 

[lukiuslion]

The problem with your analysis is that you've cited the departure of a number of experienced players as problematic when only Patfull played a major role in 2014. So I don't think our age profile is, in reality, worse than last year.

In fact, I think we are going to be able to play much more experienced side next year. We won't play anywhere near the same number of first year players. Our second year players are a year older and with valuable senior game time. Our third year players likewise. We then add in two midfielders who have played 50+ games including finals and grand finals. We bring in 3 best 18 players who missed plenty of footy last year (Rich, Leuey, Redden). We may also be able to call on Staker and McGuane.

That all has a knock on effect. A young bloke only plays if he's up for it and can contribute as a senior player. There are higher standards to play senior footy. And young players won't be forced to play significant roles. An Aish or Taylor may not have to go into the centre square contest all year because they've gone from the 4th or 5th midfielder to the 9th or 10th.

I also don't think we are necessarily hugely reliant on the young KPPs. I mean, I don't even have any of Gardiner, Clarke or Close as sure things for round 1 because we might instead put Goose and Merrett into key defensive posts and Staker at centre half forward. We have options which takes away from the "youngsters or bust" approach we were forced to take in 2014.

So I actually see our age profile as being in its best shape for several years. I also think you are underestimating the value of a 7 or 8 strong midfield all with 50+ games and all in their prime years. Coaches would kill for that sort of midfield depth - midfield quality and depth is the most important factor for success in modern footy IMO and we have it. That's going to help mask growing pains in other areas of the ground. Couple that with our ruck stocks and we've got a group of blokes who can control games from the midfield.

I can see reasons why we may struggle. But we are far more advanced than last year. We've recruited incredibly well, still have lots of internal natural improvement to come and will get critical blokes back from injury. I'm happy for people to manage expectations but I don't think it is at all unreasonable to expect something more than incremental improvement.

Not sure if you ever took a look at a post I did last year called "leppas hypothetical vision - 2017" but I broke down what a wonderful position our list is in and how our age structure is perfect, that only got better this off season. This is not a sure assessment if our list over all. However.. I maintain, that I believe, that next year will still provide another tough year due to many factors, we are in a very early development phase and a couple of great additions won't dramatically change that.

Losing experience hurts around the club as well as on the field, they are still learning a new game plan, we have a serious lack of KPP that I don't think can be denied. The pieces are there, we are just another season away.

And hey if I'm wrong, we are winning games and I don't care, and if I'm right I can say I told you so. Win win lol

 

[John]

Organic improvement, natural improvement from within, not necessarily from any particular outside interference or influence? Haha does that work?

FWIW I think that natural improvement is what all coaches would want. There are the obvious exceptions with the drafting of experienced players but by the nature of the ALF draft and the limitations of the AFL "transfer" system improvement is limited outside of what you call "Organic" IMO.

 

[EskiBro]

Does anyone know if Staker will be right to go on day 1 of preseason, or is he still recovering?

 

[Panthera]

Anywhere b/w 10 & 14 wins should be our target for 2015, considering the below:

• Leppitsch first season complete, game plan / player knowledge should improve. He's also got more support around him now.
• Easier draw if the AFL place us in that bottom 6 pool of teams (find out in 48hrs).
• 3 premium midfielders straight into the best 18 in Beams, Christensen & Rich.
• Martin and Leuenberger, potentially the best ruck combo in the AFL, played only the final game together.
• At least 10% improvement in all our kids' output.
• Staker and McGuane (if fit at any stage) to assist Close, Freeman and McStay up forward will make a big difference.
• Rockliff, Hanley and Zorko performed well in their first real season as primarily midfielders - they all have a few more gears to go up.

Actually, looking at the above, I'd say 10 was a minimum pass mark for 2015

Can't wait for the ride

 

[Big Sauce 21]

St Kilda, Sydney, Suns in NAB Challenge

 

[POBT]

St Kilda, Sydney, Suns in NAB Challenge

I like that mix. Suns and Saints should take it super seriously, Swans maybe not so much.

 

[Crawb]

Burpengary, Coffs Harbour and Gold Coast. Not too much travel during the Pre-Season which is nice.

 

[Sherrinator]

Should we be playing Close, Freeman and McStay regardless of 'form' to try and forge running patterns etc and getting games into them? They are all pretty capable and I would ha

 

[Sherrinator]

Should we be playing Close, Freeman and McStay regardless of 'form' to try and forge running patterns etc and getting games into them? They are all pretty capable and I would hate to see any dropped in what will be a development year.

 

[BL_dobsmob]

Whoohoo only 123 days until football...

Oh crap, that's a long time.

its ummmmmmm...
2,952 hours
177,120 minutes
10,627,200 seconds

Think I'll go back to sleep now, or watch the 7 victories of this year and the 10 from last year AGAIN.

 

[dlanod]

Burpengary, Coffs Harbour and Gold Coast. Not too much travel during the Pre-Season which is nice.

Might have to start investigating how to sell a trip up to Coffs. Maybe catch up with mates in Port Macquarie or something...

 

[Lace Out]

Disappointing Vic fans don't get a taster

 

[POBT]

Might have to start investigating how to sell a trip up to Coffs. Maybe catch up with mates in Port Macquarie or something...

Just had the same thought. Road trip.

 

[dlanod]

Doh, Friday night does make it less appetizing.

 

[HowYouDoin]

Let's play our entire squad and go for a massacre.

 

[POBT]

Disappointing Vic fans don't get a taster

Yeah, although there are very few games in Melbourne, particularly in the first couple of weeks. And, in the third week, they look to have tried to restrict travel as much as possible.

I assume the Cricket World Cup also played a part in this fixture.

Not sure but I don't think there is a direct commercial flight from Brisbane to Coffs so the boys might be on a bus.

 

[Fatcat08]

Doh, Friday night does make it less appetizing.

Well that killed that trip then

 

[The Golfing Lion]

True b

Disappointing Vic fans don't get a taster

True but having 2 games in Melbourne in the first 10 would more than make up for it. Would be great for membership engagement.

 

[Tairy Greene]

Not sure but I don't think there is a direct commercial flight from Brisbane to Coffs so the boys might be on a bus.

Hope the lads fill up the eskies then.

 

[jackess]

Surely a day game in February isn't the best idea. We might be playing our 3rd 18 in that game.

 

[POBT]

Hope the lads fill up the eskies then.

Gatorade? You bet.