Analysis Season 2020 - What should the season look like now?

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Lazza16

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Yep, every team playing each other once would be the fairest. Given there's enough time to get that full season in like that of course. No givens at this stage, who knows how this will all pan out.

No bye rounds. Each team plays half their games at home and half away. Richmond plays every game at the MCG.
Hehehehe
 

Lazza16

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Gees, there’s some optimistic people here.

My guess is the season is canceled by Easter, and there’s no finals.

Once the epidemic is in full swing, it will be months and mid spring before we’re on the other side.
Yeah once players r positive n team mates isolated it cant go on...unless a vaccine magically appears
 

Saucery

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If the games go ahead there is almost no doubt that our first few games at least will be played in front of no spectators, home games v North, Pies, Swans crowd number = 0.

It will be a strange/eerie feeling watching games on TV with no crowd noise.
Look on the bright side, no need to have the sound up so no commentary. I guess FOXTEL and Kayo will be flooded with cancelled accounts.
 

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PattyKwasagun

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Gees, there’s some optimistic people here.

My guess is the season is canceled by Easter, and there’s no finals.

Once the epidemic is in full swing, it will be months and mid spring before we’re on the other side.
But once it’s in full swing, why would they cancel any events? Surely once we reach that stage, containment efforts will be over and it will just be a situation of management.

Once 2-3% of the population have it, containment without a full nationwide lockdown (nobody leaving the house at all) won’t be possible. So why wouldn’t they just play games as normal from that point onwards?
 

Pns_blister

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But once it’s in full swing, why would they cancel any events? Surely once we reach that stage, containment efforts will be over and it will just be a situation of management.

Once 2-3% of the population have it, containment without a full nationwide lockdown (nobody leaving the house at all) won’t be possible. So why wouldn’t they just play games as normal from that point onwards?
I agree with this. My understanding is that they are just trying to stagger the infectious timeline, so that our health system doesn't get overwhelmed. The Government is consigned to the fact that it's going wreak havoc, they are just trying to ease the rate in which at which it unfolds/spreads.
 

Jason mp

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But once it’s in full swing, why would they cancel any events? Surely once we reach that stage, containment efforts will be over and it will just be a situation of management.

Once 2-3% of the population have it, containment without a full nationwide lockdown (nobody leaving the house at all) won’t be possible. So why wouldn’t they just play games as normal from that point onwards?
Yer, I'd be surprised if they cancelled the whole season, play a shortened season with the GF in mid October, with mid week games if needed. Surely gatherings of 500+ people wont be outlawed for more than a few months.

It's all about spreading out the infection and hospitalisation rates(bell curve) so that the health industry can cope with the influx, from what I understand large numbers of people are going to get it and some wont even be sick enough to realise they have it.
 

FLVanLandingham

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I shall set out to watch a match each week from a corresponding week in a year from 2012+

I think for week one, it will be our roaring win against the eagles last year :D
 

jackess

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But once it’s in full swing, why would they cancel any events? Surely once we reach that stage, containment efforts will be over and it will just be a situation of management.

Once 2-3% of the population have it, containment without a full nationwide lockdown (nobody leaving the house at all) won’t be possible. So why wouldn’t they just play games as normal from that point onwards?
Because a significant amount of players, officials, staff, etc. will be sick/quarantined.
 

luthor

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Gees, there’s some optimistic people here.

My guess is the season is canceled by Easter, and there’s no finals.

Once the epidemic is in full swing, it will be months and mid spring before we’re on the other side.

There are also some very pessimistic people here.

I'll concede that things look bad but I'd rather remain hopeful of some meaningful outcome, than throw in the towel completely.
 

PattyKwasagun

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Because a significant amount of players, officials, staff, etc. will be sick/quarantined.
But this is my point - once it’s widespread and out in the community, quarantining will stop.

Quarantining is a measure of trying to contain the virus. Once it’s broken out in the community, we will move away from the containment period.

At that stage, many people will get it and mostly just have symptoms of a relatively mild cold.

It will be a very dangerous situation for those at risk, but there will be nothing much societally that can be done by then outside of the at risk groups having to be incredibly careful themselves.
 

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PattyKwasagun

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This is only a real problem as long as we’re in the containment phase. Once it’s wide spread and we’re out of that phase, it will be an entirely different situation.

No use quarantining anybody when 5% of the population is infected. We’re past the point of no return then.
 

Big Sauce 21

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Why would they even bother starting it. Will 100% be boned in the coming weeks. Extremely frustrating and depressing mood right now. Super ******* sour at work at the moment. Nothing to look forward to for 12 months.
 

PattyKwasagun

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Why would they even bother starting it. Will 100% be boned in the coming weeks. Extremely frustrating and depressing mood right now. Super ******* sour at work at the moment. Nothing to look forward to for 12 months.
Again though, why would that be the case?

Unless we are still in a containment stage in 2 months time (which would be a remarkable success for the current measures and is not at all expected I don’t believe), why would any games be cancelled at that stage?

All the current measures we are seeing - cancelling major events, being cautious about flights, extreme hygiene measures - are all about trying to slow down the spread. That’s only a temporary solution. That won’t last much longer.

When it’s out there and no longer able to be contained (which most experts suggest will be by mid/late April), there will be no use in cancelling games or anything.

Nothing short of a prolonged complete shut down of literally everything - all public transport, all shops, any kind of activity outside of the home with others - will have any impact at that stage.

The response to the virus by mid April will almost certainly not be quarantine. By then it will be ramping up treatment for the most vulnerable.
 

PattyKwasagun

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There will be cases within playing groups and staff. Which will lead to isolation protocols. It's going to happen.
There absolutely will be. But isolation is only the current method. That is what society is doing in this current containment period.

Isolation isn’t the permanent response to the virus. It’s just the current approach as we’re trying to slow it down. Once it’s out there, we won’t be containing it any longer in that way - people will just go about their day to day lives with it.
 

Gadzorks

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briztoon

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But once it’s in full swing, why would they cancel any events? Surely once we reach that stage, containment efforts will be over and it will just be a situation of management.

Once 2-3% of the population have it, containment without a full nationwide lockdown (nobody leaving the house at all) won’t be possible. So why wouldn’t they just play games as normal from that point onwards?
But this is my point - once it’s widespread and out in the community, quarantining will stop.

Quarantining is a measure of trying to contain the virus. Once it’s broken out in the community, we will move away from the containment period.

At that stage, many people will get it and mostly just have symptoms of a relatively mild cold.

It will be a very dangerous situation for those at risk, but there will be nothing much societally that can be done by then outside of the at risk groups having to be incredibly careful themselves.
I’m only guessing, because our government hasn’t outlined their plan.


Right now we’re in the quarantine phase. Hospitalise all confirmed cases, and quarantine, or self isolate, the close contacts.


Next will be the contain phase. At some point, and I’ve no idea what the trigger will be, if you show any symptoms of a cold, or flu, or coronavirus, it will be you and your family stay home and self isolate. This is something Boris said they will do in the UK.

At some point they will have to stop hospitalising every new case of coronavirus, and just hospitalise the seriously ill patients.

I’m guessing this will be the flatten out stage, and they will try and keep it going as long as possible.

Again, my guess is that they’ll want to keep this in place until the flattened bell curve is on a downward trajectory.


Again, I’m guessing, the next step is what Italy have done. Shut it all down. When it gets to the point that they can’t control and contain the virus in society, they close down society.

That’s what they did in Wuhan for 10 weeks.


The whole thing is to keep the virus at a manageable level for our hospitals. I’ve no idea how many ICU beds we have in QLD or Australia.

If we “open” society back up when we reach 5%, that’s just going to spike the bell curve.

A fair bit of the first 5% might well be recovered and able to go back to work while the virus keeps spreading.

So as the total percentage of the infected goes up, it doesn’t mean that all cases are continuous and permanently contagious.

While we might end up with a total of 25% of the population infected. We might see it top out at only 5% being infected and contagious at any one time.


By the numbers, we’re about a week behind the UK. So I’d be watching them for a possible guide as to what might happen here.

The downside for us is we’re heading in to winter, and my gut instinct is that things will be worse here.

Last year we had ~300,000 flu cases. 20% of that is 60,000. Do we have 60,000 public hospital beds in Australia? Let alone ICU beds.


The government is not telling us what numbers the public health system can handle. When the government don’t tell us something, I tend to worry a little, because I believe they don’t want to panic society.
 
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briztoon

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Not every case is going to warrant a hospital bed. Majority of people are fine
I did say that.

1% percent of 25 million is 250,000. 10% of 250,000 is 25,000.

So even if we only have 1% of the population infected at any one time during the peak period, we would want a low proportion being serious cases.
 

luthor

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Last year we had ~300,000 flu cases. 20% of that is 60,000. Do we have 60,000 public hospital beds in Australia? Let alone ICU beds.
You are drawing an equivalence between "flu" cases last year and a hypothetical serious infection rate for Covid19

So we had 300K flu cases (your figure) last year and yet we managed.

The available stats for Covid19 suggest that it is the mainly the very elderly and /or infirm that are at risk

The 3 (only) deaths so far in this country were 80+ years of age.

Mild infections and Recoveries outweigh serious infections and Deaths by 13 to 1 on a global scale.


I'm not suggesting that Coronavirus isn't a very worrisome phenomena but I have every confidence that this nation is as well, if not better equipped to repel this scourge.

By all means take every precaution, wash your hands, avoid crowds and but for Chrissakes lets keep a bit of balance here.

Stressing out about worst case hypotheticals isn't good for anyone
 

PattyKwasagun

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In terms of the comparisons to the lengthy lockdown in Wuhan and what we are seeing in terms of a total lockdown in Italy, I think it's worth noting that on the global scale they both exist in different circumstances to the one that Australia will find itself in come April.

Wuhan in particular didn't go into complete lockdown in an attempt to contain the virus just in Wuhan - it went into complete lockdown to contain the virus globally. As the origin of the virus and the scene of the initial outbreak, their response was of such a drastic scale (in terms of measures taken and length of time they were taken for) because it was all so early in the piece that they potentially could have cut it off at the source.

Italy similarly has gone into their current level of lockdown in an attempt to catch it early on in its global impact.

By the time Australia is in a similar boat in terms of scale of outbreak, the global outbreak will likely be so significant that such extreme lockdown measures will be quite pointless overall, because by then it will largely be accepted that this thing is out of the box globally and isn't going back in (whereas both the Wuhan and Italy lockdowns were motivated by the hope that it could be).

I fully expect from all the information that has been released that this thing will be out there and widespread by the end of April in this country, and that current measures are being taken just to delay it as long as possible. It seems as though each day helps in terms of giving more time to set up response centres and come up with a national plan to handle this situation.

In terms of the point about hospital beds, I think each day is helping on that front too. As has been reported, numerous hotels around the country are currently being assessed as potential pop-up hospitals for further space for patients, and drive-through testing facilities are being trialled - the luxury to look into these things in a preparation stage is what is being bought for us by the current measures.

We're holding the tide, but with what's happening here and globally we won't be able to hold it too much longer. I don't think there is an expectation that we will be able to from any level of government either - the phrasing is continually around slowing the spread, not stopping it.

But once the metaphorical dam wall has burst and this thing is in the community, quarantine and self-isolation will almost certainly not be required. It simply won't make much sense anymore - it will be so prevalent that keeping yourself away for weeks on end just because you might have caught it will not be the recommended course of action. Those diagnosed with the virus will almost certainly still be required to stay home and recover (like anyone with the flu would be), but social activities will no longer be halted to try to stop it.

All of the projections I've read point to that stage being reached by early in May. That's why I expect that from that point onwards, we will be able to have a relatively normal and uninterrupted footy season - albeit one that those in high risk health categories will probably not consider attending, as the virus will be through the community by then.

What happens between now and then though is an entirely different situation. I suppose that is probably why the AFL is keen to play as many rounds as possible without crowds now - because they anticipate losing weeks in April, and want to get to May in a state where picking up the season again is still feasible.
 

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