Analysis Season 2023 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Tom14]

Expected score ladder after round 9 - number 1 team for attack on expected score, number 3 for defence (now ahead of the Saints). An excellent sign of the overall health of our game in terms of creating and preventing quality scoring opportunities.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

I see that some of the models are starting to put us finishing top 2, including Squiggle.

 

[Elixuh]

Expected score ladder after round 9 - number 1 team for attack on expected score, number 3 for defence (now ahead of the Saints). An excellent sign of the overall health of our game in terms of creating and preventing quality scoring opportunities.

I think we have a couple of players who could be more consistent in their defensive application but overall the group defensive mantra is really pleasing compared to last year.

Buy in from the forwards and the inclusion of Dunkley has made it infinitely easier to achieve.

 

[M Malice]

Is there a stat for the amount of hands in/knock downs to disrupt handball chains?

We are definitely doing this more than previous seasons, along with smothers.

 

[Section 5]

I now that some of the models are starting to put us finishing top 2, including Squiggle.

One from wheelo has us 3rd
A long way to go but top 4 will still be hard to achieve.
Hopefully things continue to go our way injury wise and our actual game play continues to improve.

 

[Tom14]

One from wheelo has us 3rd
A long way to go but top 4 will still be hard to achieve.
Hopefully things continue to go our way injury wise and our actual game play continues to improve.

View attachment 1688254

Dees will be interesting re finishing position/top4.

Their best win is probably the bulldogs in Round 1? Otherwise they've played 3 teams in the current top 10 and have lost two of them, to us and the bombers. Yet to play Collingwood, Cats, St Kilda, Port, Crows and Blues. Not sold on them as the team to beat just yet though they have all the talent in the world.

However they somehow have the privilege of playing North twice and Hawthorn twice. Going to be tough to finish ahead of them as a result.

 

[Elixuh]

Dees will be interesting re finishing position/top4.

Their best win is probably the bulldogs in Round 1? Otherwise they've played 3 teams in the current top 10 and have lost two of them, to us and the bombers. Yet to play Collingwood, Cats, St Kilda, Port, Crows and Blues. Not sold on them as the team to beat just yet though they have all the talent in the world.

However they somehow have the privilege of playing North twice and Hawthorn twice. Going to be tough to finish ahead of them as a result.

Yep. Some double ups will likely significantly influence the pointy end of the ladder this year. Melb has effectively been given the draw of a team that finished around 9th/bottom of 8.

 

[KissKiss]

Melbourne I think played Sydney when they still had their full backline and were much better. But yep have had (and will have) a much easier run than us or the Pies

 

[KissKiss]

I now that some of the models are starting to put us finishing top 2, including Squiggle.

I just saw that. The squiggle really didnt rate us preseason so has been a big swing around. It would have loved keeping Essendon to a low score.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Yep. Some double ups will likely significantly influence the pointy end of the ladder this year. Melb has effectively been given the draw of a team that finished around 9th/bottom of 8.

All the more satisfying to give them a rude shock when we get to play them

 

[Elixuh]

All the more satisfying to give them a rude shock when we get to play them

We already did that, but turning off the power backfired on us.

 

[Section 5]

Dees will be interesting re finishing position/top4.

Their best win is probably the bulldogs in Round 1? Otherwise they've played 3 teams in the current top 10 and have lost two of them, to us and the bombers. Yet to play Collingwood, Cats, St Kilda, Port, Crows and Blues. Not sold on them as the team to beat just yet though they have all the talent in the world.

However they somehow have the privilege of playing North twice and Hawthorn twice. Going to be tough to finish ahead of them as a result.

Dees also has a Swans double up that would have been considered two hard games, but not so much as the season unfolded.
You could even throw the Tigers double up games into that group although they may improve.

Looking at the double ups going into round 10 for the teams in the top 8.

They play this team twice in the remaining rounds.

Collingwood: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide
Melbourne: Brisbane, Carlton, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney
Brisbane: Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Melbourne, St Kilda
Port Adelaide: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
St Kilda: Brisbane, Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond
Western Bulldogs: Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond
Geelong: Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
Adelaide: Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast

Hopefully i have not missed anything

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Dees also has a Swans double up that would have been considered two hard games, but not so much as the season unfolded.
You could even throw the Tigers double up games into that group although they may improve.

Looking at the double ups going into round 10 for the teams in the top 8.

They play this team twice in the remaining rounds.

Collingwood: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide
Melbourne: Brisbane, Carlton, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney
Brisbane: Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Melbourne, St Kilda
Port Adelaide: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
St Kilda: Brisbane, Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond
Western Bulldogs: Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond
Geelong: Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
Adelaide: Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast

Hopefully i have not missed anything

That's a dream run for Melbourne, but I guess that's the advantage of losing a prelim.

 

[Elixuh]

 

[Section 5]

So basically, it closely follows the ladder position.
Who would have thunk.

 

[Elixuh]

So basically, it closely follows the ladder position.
Who would have thunk.

I have actually been working on a complex statistics model for a few weeks, which I just finished tonight. I can reveal that when the top 8 sides play each other it is 8 wins and 8 losses, the competition has never been more even.

 

[martinson]

My model shows that the teams who win the most games are far more likely to make the 8 than those who don't win enough games to get there.

Another interesting stat is that to win AA selection you have a far better chance if you are in a Top 4 team than a bottom 4 team.

Surprisingly enough the best players seem to play in the teams that win a lot of games.

The miracle of stats and in depth computer analysis is that we now have access to confirmation of all these theories that people once had but no conclusive proof.

 

[M Malice]

Firestarters and fast finishers: The best first and last-quarter teams

First quarters, 2023​

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Fourth quarters, 2023 season​

 

[Section 5]

Firestarters and fast finishers: The best first and last-quarter teams

First quarters, 2023​

​

Fourth quarters, 2023 season​

When these sorts of stats are released i wish they would do it properly and do the 4 quarters.
After all is it not recognized that the 3rd quarter is the premiership quarter.

 

[Grasshopper17]

When these sorts of stats are released i wish they would do it properly and do the 4 quarters.
After all is it not recognized that the 3rd quarter is the premiership quarter.

I got you

Updated to the end of Round 9

 

[twhowler]

Firestarters and fast finishers: The best first and last-quarter teams

First quarters, 2023​

​

Fourth quarters, 2023 season​

Doesn't worry me too much... yet.

All about context. Melbourne last quarter an absolute anomaly and as others have noted would make a difference if taken out.

Port - irrelevant as game was over. Lost 5.5 to 2.1
Dees - mulligan! Lost it 6.1 to 1.4
Dogs - disappointing but had our chances, lost it 1.3 to 2.3
Pies - game not quite over and we held them at bay well, 4.2 to 3.5
North - irrelevant as game over, won it 5.7 to 3.3
Giants - arguably the most disappointing last q because we let them get on top and get a sniff, but we also steadied really well and only lost because of inaccuracy, 3.2 to 1.7
Freo - close to irrelevant with margin but in any event won it 4.3 to 2.3
Carlton - the other disappointing one, lost it 5.3 to 3.1 but it was coming from a cushy margin and never let them get within 20
Essendon - Margin was only 17 so game not over, won very easily 5.4 to 1.3

So of the games where the last quarter was relevant, we did well v Dons and Pies, did not so well v Giants and Blues but didn't go close to losing, v dogs a bit disappointing rather than doing poorly, Dees terrible but mulligan for obvious reason

I think our last quarters are a watch at this stage rather than a worry. And when we came up against the specialist last quarter side in the Pies we did well.

First quarters are improving too. Lost them in rounds 1 and 4, haven't lost one since.

 

[Section 5]

I got you

Updated to the end of Round 9

View attachment 1688932

Thats great
So, the Lions are the 2 & 3rd quarter Kings of the jungle at least to round 10.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Doesn't worry me too much... yet.

All about context. Melbourne last quarter an absolute anomaly and as others have noted would make a difference if taken out.

Port - irrelevant as game was over. Lost 5.5 to 2.1
Dees - mulligan! Lost it 6.1 to 1.4
Dogs - disappointing but had our chances, lost it 1.3 to 2.3
Pies - game not quite over and we held them at bay well, 4.2 to 3.5
North - irrelevant as game over, won it 5.7 to 3.3
Giants - arguably the most disappointing last q because we let them get on top and get a sniff, but we also steadied really well and only lost because of inaccuracy, 3.2 to 1.7
Freo - close to irrelevant with margin but in any event won it 4.3 to 2.3
Carlton - the other disappointing one, lost it 5.3 to 3.1 but it was coming from a cushy margin and never let them get within 20
Essendon - Margin was only 17 so game not over, won very easily 5.4 to 1.3

So of the games where the last quarter was relevant, we did well v Dons and Pies, did not so well v Giants and Blues but didn't go close to losing, v dogs a bit disappointing rather than doing poorly, Dees terrible but mulligan for obvious reason

I think our last quarters are a watch at this stage rather than a worry. And when we came up against the specialist last quarter side in the Pies we did well.

First quarters are improving too. Lost them in rounds 1 and 4, haven't lost one since.

Looks like our last quarter its goal kicking accuracy thats our biggest issue

 

[Gadzorks]

2nd quarters are impressive, backs the "vibe" I have at the game that when the coaches get hold of them at quarter time the team soaks up the information and puts it into action

On the 4th quarters I agree with a couple of posters from yesterday who said we are changing our style and attempting to shut down the game far too early and this leads to a slight subconscious drop off in our pressure game. Could be the coaches not wanting to run our players into the ground though ie. fatigue management, it's a long season.

I feel like we lose most first quarters, but apparently it's only two so far this year.

I think I'm reacting to opposition intensity.

First quarters are when opposition who think they are going to lose throwing everything at us.

 

[Gibbo_88]

4th quarter is a bit of a weird one, how much does it really mean? I would guess that close to 50% of games are pretty much over early in the 4th quarter. We were probably a great 4th quarter team 2014-2016 because the game was over.

We seem to have the ability to kick enough goals to get a buffer of 4-5 goals and when other teams push us we can keep them just out of reach of really putting us under pressure.