Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Grasshopper17]

Posted this last year, but updated now for our 2024 list. We've actually got younger! Aided mainly I guess by the departures of Rich, Gunston and Adams.

Last year we had the 3rd oldest list (behind Geelong and the Bulldogs)... this year we are down to 4th (behind Collingwood, Geelong and Melbourne). Our average age has dropped from 25.2 to 25.1).

Of the other clubs I've mentioned here:

Geelong: 25.4 (1st) --> 25.5 (2nd)
Bulldogs: 25.2 (2nd) --> 24.9 (7th)
Collingwood: 25.0 (4th) --> 25.9 (1st) - this is a huge change!
Melbourne: 24.7 (7th) --> 25.2 (3rd)



Older
Carlton: 24.6 years (8th) --> 25.0 (6th)
Port Adelaide: 24.4 years (9th) --> 24.6 (10th)
Greater Western Sydney: 24.2 years (12th) --> 24.3 (13th)
Sydney: 24.0 years (13th) --> 24.7 (8th)
Adelaide: 23.8 years (16th) --> 24.3 (14th)
Essendon: 23.8 years (17th) --> 24.5 (12th)
Hawthorn: 23.0 years (18th) --> 23.7 (17th)

Port and the Giants are notable as both groups are slightly older but both have slipped a rung down the age ladder. This is as good an indication as any that the whole league is getting older. As is the relatively few lists that have become younger.

Younger
Gold Coast: 24.8 years (6th) --> 24.7 (9th)
West Coast: 24.4 years (10th) --> 23.9 (16th)
North Melbourne: 24.0 years (14th) --> 23.4 (18th)

The league-wide average age in 2023 was 24.42 and that has risen to 24.63 for 2024.

 

[Elixuh]

 

[Tom14]

Someone else started this thread so I didn't have to!

No Kingy stats dump yet (no sign of Purefooty, assume it starts next week), and his 360 segment didn't cover anything interesting.

I'll plug the Shinboner as I always do - from the preview post on us: The Look Ahead: Brisbane in 2024 - The Shinboner

Does it all come down to executing in key moments?​

When a side is as good as Brisbane, and without any significant departures over the off-season, all the questions are around the margins.

In this case, the focus (or mine, anyway) is on one thing: Over the course of 2023, the Lions ticked off most of the (my) question marks – defensive half ball use, general structure on both sides of the ball, limiting opposition uncontested ball – except for…

Crunch time execution.

At the end of a game there was always a nagging query on how Brisbane could close it out and it all came home to roost on Grand Final day:

It’s the small margins that make a premiership team. Collingwood knew, right down to the last blade of grass, where everyone had to be and when – and were able to execute it. Brisbane couldn’t match it.

Nothing else on the Lions’ list, barring an unexpected injury run, appears to be in trouble, there’s depth across all lines, not to mention their formidable home record guaranteeing 9-10 wins before they even consider hopping on a plane.

For me it comes down to execution when it matters most. It’s the only thing standing between them and a flag.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Someone else started this thread so I didn't have to!

No Kingy stats dump yet (no sign of Purefooty, assume it starts next week), and his 360 segment didn't cover anything interesting.

I'll plug the Shinboner as I always do - from the preview post on us: The Look Ahead: Brisbane in 2024 - The Shinboner

Great example of why we all never wanted to see Neale, Dunkley and Lyons in the same team.

Lyons got sucked into the contest, was ineffective then unable to transition defensively. Nothing to do with fitness or concentration. Replace Lyons with Clug and Ashcroft and it could’ve been very different

Then made worse with Dunkley slipping on Gene Simmons sweat puddle

Very lucky to be on the list

 

[Elixuh]

Hot streak: Lion's insane record stretches to 26 games

One Brisbane player hasn't been part of a losing side at the Gabba since round one of 2021

www.afl.com.au

 

[Elixuh]

 

[Grasshopper17]

 

[Lazza16]

I wonder if anyone has ever asked ChatGPT for a decent game plan?

 

[Grasshopper17]

I wonder if anyone has ever asked ChatGPT for a decent game plan?

It's only a matter of time. I'm currently brainstorming a model which might allow someone (ie a coaching group) to objectively measure momentum in a game, informing a decision as to whether to put a spare man behind the ball, or play an extra at stoppages, whatever.

You might think about how many goals goals you've conceded (the last 2, 4 of the last 5), how many of the last 5-10 inside 50s, how many of the last 5-10 clearances, time in forward half in the last 10 minutes, un/contested marks in the last 10 minutes, whatever.

And this is very likely just the start. ChatGPT might be a little crude, but it's only a matter of time before the game goes further down that path. Collingwood's move to have Leppitsch separated from the rest of the coaching group tomorrow night might be the first step.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Daniel Hoyne worth a listen this week. Brisbane addressed pretty close to the start.

 

[Tom14]

After our 0-3 start, this is my official statement on this thread:

 

[Elixuh]

Daniel Hoyne worth a listen this week. Brisbane addressed pretty close to the start.

So really it’s good news.

• defensively we are ok except for d50 stoppages which are easy to clean up.
• our main issue is in our attack where we are getting reamed on ground ball. Should be fixable based on prior years.
• our list is in great shape for the longer term if this year doesn’t work out, ie we should be competing for a flag next year with all of Ashcroft x2, Doedee and Coleman in.

 

[twhowler]

So really it’s good news.

• defensively we are ok except for d50 stoppages which are easy to clean up.
• our main issue is in our attack where we are getting reamed on ground ball. Should be fixable based on prior years.
• our list is in great shape for the longer term if this year doesn’t work out, ie we should be competing for a flag next year with all of Ashcroft x2, Doedee and Coleman in.

i am still a fan of 2 rucks.

But i wonder if going smaller will help because A helps the groundballs and B means we actually know we are smaller and lower our eyes. Maybe we just bombed it in blindly last week knowing we were tall? Lohman should actually start and plays as pressure forward


On the other hand we really should be getting more out of the smalls in there. Bailey and Charlie should be told go back to basics, tackle and pressure.

I wonder if we have been partly left behind tactically and that has been exacerbated by kiddy out reading this

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1100510

Fagan sees inside 50s as the holy grail.
Not sure other sides do.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Maybe we just bombed it in blindly last week knowing we were tall?

Perhaps. Altho we bombed it pretty blindly against Freo with only 2 tall forwards as well. Predictably, Freo feasted on our turnovers and their intercept marks etc. It basically necessitated us playing 3 tall forwards against Collingwood.

The panacea is we nail our ball movement, to such a degree that we don't have to play ANY tall forwards at all. (Ridicule this all you want, but one day A TEAM will nail this and change football irrevocably)

But we are worlds away from that right now.

 

[Nathan Barley]

i am still a fan of 2 rucks.

But i wonder if going smaller will help because A helps the groundballs and B means we actually know we are smaller and lower our eyes. Maybe we just bombed it in blindly last week knowing we were tall? Lohman should actually start and plays as pressure forward


On the other hand we really should be getting more out of the smalls in there. Bailey and Charlie should be told go back to basics, tackle and pressure.

I wonder if we have been partly left behind tactically and that has been exacerbated by kiddy out reading this

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1100510

Fagan sees inside 50s as the holy grail.
Not sure other sides do.

It’s a strange article. So we should let the opposition get the ball inside 50 to give us more opportunities to rebound?

 

[Grasshopper17]

It’s a strange article. So we should let the opposition get the ball inside 50 to give us more opportunities to rebound?

As previously addressed.

 

[martinson]

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

You can make the stats mean whatever you'd like them to mean and every time I see Fages look down at our stats sheet to try to justify our poor play I feel like saying just throw it away mate.

The problem with our i/s 50's of late has been that we often kick it haphazardly into a congested forward line with our smalls not doing enough work at the drop of the ball. So our push up the ground in front of the forward line has to work like hell to get it back in there ,something we've done a reasonable job of. But we burn up a lot of juice and just haven't had the run in our legs or positioning when the opposition get an overlap going.

In other words they get their scores easily ,we've had to work too hard for ours. That was evident in the 2nd quarter last week when we dominated for no equivalent reward. They came out as fresh as a daisy in the 3rd and we were a bit tired.

 

[KissKiss]

Its been hard to tell from tv (as you dont see the wider shot of the forward line) but on tv the commentary has quite a few times made comments that our talls dont make enough proactive leads (ie leading even just to create space without really meaning to get the ball). They just stand there waving and pointing to space and then lead as the ball is kicked there.

Im wondering if that is true and if it causes so many issues in the talls and smalls all going up as everyone can see where the ball is going

 

[martinson]

Its been hard to tell from tv (as you dont see the wider shot of the forward line) but on tv the commentary has quite a few times made comments that our talls dont make enough proactive leads (ie leading even just to create space without really meaning to get the ball). They just stand there waving and pointing to space and then lead as the ball is kicked there.

Im wondering if that is true and if it causes so many issues in the talls and smalls all going up as everyone can see where the ball is going

It is true.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Its been hard to tell from tv (as you dont see the wider shot of the forward line) but on tv the commentary has quite a few times made comments that our talls dont make enough proactive leads (ie leading even just to create space without really meaning to get the ball). They just stand there waving and pointing to space and then lead as the ball is kicked there.

Im wondering if that is true and if it causes so many issues in the talls and smalls all going up as everyone can see where the ball is going

Yep absolutely true... Have been saying for years we need blokes to be leading even if they know they aren't going to get the ball.

 

[McIvor]

Its been hard to tell from tv (as you dont see the wider shot of the forward line) but on tv the commentary has quite a few times made comments that our talls dont make enough proactive leads (ie leading even just to create space without really meaning to get the ball). They just stand there waving and pointing to space and then lead as the ball is kicked there.

Im wondering if that is true and if it causes so many issues in the talls and smalls all going up as everyone can see where the ball is going

They need to watch some old highlights of someone like Jason Dunstall or Richard Osborne, two undersized KPF and their leading patterns

 

[Denno]

So really it’s good news.

• defensively we are ok except for d50 stoppages which are easy to clean up.
• our main issue is in our attack where we are getting reamed on ground ball. Should be fixable based on prior years.
• our list is in great shape for the longer term if this year doesn’t work out, ie we should be competing for a flag next year with all of Ashcroft x2, Doedee and Coleman in.

Bit late to the party on this one, but the first two dot points back up what the "feel" has been (at least to me).

I reckon we've been susceptible to ground balls in our D50 from the mid-way point of last year (culminating in Bobby Hill saluting on GF day). Obviously Coleman/McKenna being out doesn't help this one iota, but, with Answerth in now (and going OK), and Starcevich hopefully getting back into his form of a few years ago, we may be able to nullify more scoring chances (even if it comes at a cost of slower movement out of the back 50).

As for our F50, I guess the I50 numbers tell a story in itself (in that we can't keep it in there this year). The pressure in this part of the ground was a "sign" for me over the past few years - bring it, and "we're on". Unfortunately, prior to Fri, it was few and far between this year. Not sure why, considering minimal changes to personnel (although Cameron is clearly out of form). This is part of the reason I was so keen for Lohmann to get a full game - think he brings some of this spark (let alone his attacking ability).
Reckon too, we may have finally seen some of it on Fri (where there is overlap defensive pressure until a turnover results - we swarm in waves). Even better, it was later in the game, so hopefully it's a sign that it's returning

P.S. I have absolutely no stats to back up the above paragraphs.............

It will be very interesting to see how Thurs plays out - if we can bring this sustained pressure, we will surely generate plenty of scoring opportunities (their back six, for mine, aren't great when the ball hits the deck). There's a whole lot more to the game though - that can wait for the preview thread(s)!

On the last point, I'm not giving up on this year yet, but agree, there is plenty of talent on the list going forward. Hopefully we can snaffle yet another "broken" player in the off-season and have them slot into our best 22 from Rd. 1. Worry about that later this year though.......

 

[Grasshopper17]

Comments from Daniel Hoyne about Melbourne at about 24 mins...

Also a shout-out for Darcy Wilmot at about 38 minutes and Hoyne's forecast for Thursday at 41 minutes.

It's the hope that kills you

 

[Tom14]

So after 2 wins I thought I'd subject myself to Kingy and Daniel Hoyne's video show on a wednesday... only to find out that its been canned!

Basically, only possible access to champion data's stats now is Hoyne's segment on sportsday every tuesday evening. A sad situation gets worse!

Anyway, as posted in other threads here's the relevant story about what he had to say this week:

The only team living up to key premiership indicator after Round 5, according to Champion Data

“If this continues... I will be shocked if they’re not playing on Preliminary Final weekend.”

www.sen.com.au

Brisbane is the only team in the AFL currently hitting some of the key markers for a premiership side, despite the Lions sitting outside the top eight after Round 5.

16 of the last 18 premiers ranked in the top four in both points scored and points conceded, while every premier in that time has been top six defensively.

The Lions are the only team in the competition that, from a ball movement perspective, are sitting inside the top four both offensively and defensively, Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne revealed to SEN’s Sporstday on Tuesday night.

He believes a 2-3 record for Chris Fagan's side is deceiving and believes their current profile is that of a Preliminary Finalist at the very least.

“The win/loss (record) can mask things… I think Brisbane were going a lot better than their win/loss suggested,” he began.

“The reason I keep banging on about the turnover game, 17 of the last 18 premiers have been top three in the turnover game so if you can’t get that aspect right, that is when there are red flags and that’s what’s happening at Collingwood at the moment.

“Brisbane don’t have that… their turnover game, and what they’re doing defensivley at the moment, is the best in the competition.

“They are the hardest team to punish a turnover against and get it on the scoreboard. Full ground defence… no team is conceding fewer shots at goal than what Brisbane has done at the moment.

“If their opponents had kicked to expectation at the moment, they would be ranked no.1 for points against.

“In terms of where their opposition wins possession and turns it into a score, only Gold Coast and Geelong are harder to score against at the moment.”

“This defensive profile is rock solid… in terms of a system perspective, it is absolutely rock solid.”

 

[Elixuh]

So after 2 wins I thought I'd subject myself to Kingy and Daniel Hoyne's video show on a wednesday... only to find out that its been canned!

Basically, only possible access to champion data's stats now is Hoyne's segment on sportsday every tuesday evening. A sad situation gets worse!

Anyway, as posted in other threads here's the relevant story about what he had to say this week:

The only team living up to key premiership indicator after Round 5, according to Champion Data

“If this continues... I will be shocked if they’re not playing on Preliminary Final weekend.”

www.sen.com.au

The issue is if we want top 4, we can probably only afford maybe 3 more losses for the entire season. It is going to be a tough ask regardless of the form we are in. We will basically need to go on a 7 or 8 game streak at some stage.