Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Nunez]

Final rankings for the year. Our huge Grand Final win shot us up to the #1 ranking for the first time all season. It was only a matter of time but the model eventually got it right!

I'll probably look to roll out a new model for my seeds next season, hopefully (a) putting a greater weighting on recent form and (b) utilising more of Champion Data's "Premiership Metrics", which, to be fair, are gonna need a rework over summer given they had only Hawthorn and the Bulldogs as the only potential premiers at the start of the finals.

#1 - Brisbane 129%

#2 - Sydney 127%

#3 - Western Bulldogs 125%
#4 - Greater Western Sydney 116%

#5 - Hawthorn 115%
#6 - Geelong 113%
#7 - Fremantle 108%
#8 - Port Adelaide 105.8%

#9 - Collingwood 105.6%
#10 - Adelaide 104.4%
#11 - Carlton 103.6%
#12 - Melbourne 100%
#13 - St Kilda 95%
#14 - Essendon 90%
#15 - Gold Coast 89%
#16 - West Coast 64.4%
#17 - Richmond 64.3%
#18 - North Melbourne 63%

Forget champion data, use The Couch premiership window! Easy peasy!

 

[Grasshopper17]

Forget champion data, use The Couch premiership window! Easy peasy!

To be fair, this was an impressive one-take performance from G Lyon.

 

[Nunez]

To be fair, this was an impressive one-take performance from G Lyon.

Haha indeed. Quality television

 

[Grasshopper17]

Also, https://afltables.com/afl/teams/allteams/last20.html is nice to look at right now. We rarely see the same team at the top of every table on this page.

 

[Grasshopper17]

A popular question for players and supporters etc has been "when did you think you had the Grand Final won"? For Fages, I reckon he was the latest... I don't reckon he cracked a smile until the last couple of minutes of the game. I reckon some of the players eased up a bit midway through the last quarter.

For me, ever the conservative worry wart, it was Cal Ah Chee's goal at the end of the 3rd quarter, giving us a 73 point lead and taking us out past the greatest ever comeback in AFL history. But that comeback happened in a vastly different era of scoring, was by a (the) top team at the time against a bottom 8 team, and the maximum margin in that game (69 points) came at the 9 minute mark of the 2nd quarter.

So it got me thinking, is there a way we can say, somewhat objectively, when did we have the game won? When did the margin exceed any previous historical comeback from the same stage of the game?

So with a bit of web scraping and coding, I've been able to analyse the score progressions to find the biggest comeback from any stage of a game during the 2024 season. At some stage I hope to be able to expand this out to include all seasons (well, back to 2001 at least, which is what AFL Tables has at the moment). But this is a start.

1st quarter - essentially these are fast starts that eventually got reeled in
16 seconds to 18 seconds - 1 point: Sydney v Carlton (17 May)
18 seconds to 1:29 - 6 points: 23 different matches
1:30 to 2:02 - 7 points: Essendon v Adelaide (19 July)
2:03 to 4:06 - 12 points: 4 different matches
4:07 to 5:27 - 13 points: 3 different matches
5:28 to 7:01 - 18 points: Gold Coast v West Coast (28 April)
5:45 to 7:01 - 18 points: Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn (5 May)
7:02 to 9:05 - 19 points: Collingwood v Western Bulldogs (31 May)
8:43 to 9:05 - 19 points: Essendon v Adelaide (19 July)
9:06 to 10:11 - 20 points: Collingwood v Western Bulldogs (31 May)
10:12 to 12:47 - 20 points: Sydney v Carlton (17 May)
12:48 to 13:34 - 23 points: Sydney v Geelong (9 June)
12:56 to 13:34 - 23 points: Fremantle v Brisbane (17 March)
13:35 to 14:06 - 24 points: Collingwood v Brisbane (17 August)
14:07 to 18:23 - 26 points: Sydney v Carlton (17 May)
18:24 to 21:32 - 26 points: West Coast v Richmond (14 April)
21:33 to 21:35 - 27 points: Brisbane v GWS (10 August)
21:36 to 23:52 - 31 points: Brisbane v Carlton (8 March)
23:21 to 23:52 - 31 points: Collingwood v Port Adelaide (20 April)
23:53 to 25:01 - 37 points: Brisbane v Carlton (8 March)
25:02 to 29:08 - 38 points: Brisbane v Carlton (8 March)
29:09 to 30:41 - 41 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June)
30:42 to QT - 43 points: Brisbane v Carlton (8 March)

2nd quarter
QT to 13:13 - 43 points: Brisbane v Carlton (8 March)
13:14 to 16:05 - 44 points: Brisbane v Carlton (8 March)
16:06 to 18:26 - 45 points: Brisbane v Carlton (8 March)
18:27 to 19:03 - 46 points: Brisbane v Carlton (8 March)
19:04 to HT - 48 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June)

3rd quarter
HT to 0:56 - 48 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June)
0:57 to 2:58 - 54 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June) - biggest comeback of 2024
2:59 to 9:09 - 48 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June)
9:10 to 11:41 - 47 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June)
11:42 to 13:06 - 46 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June)
13:07 to 23:00 - 45 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June)
23:01 to 25:36 - 44 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June)
25:37 to 28:59 - 38 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June)
29:00 to 30:35 - 37 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June)
30:36 to 3QT - 31 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June)

4th quarter - these may not necessarily be the biggest comebacks, but they're the ones that happened relatively late
3QT to 0:41 - 31 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June)
0:42 to 3:16 - 31 points: GWS v Brisbane (14 September)
3:15 to 3:56 - 31 points: North Melbourne v Collingwood (16 June)
3:57 to 8:14 - 28 points: Port Adelaide v Hawthorn (19 May)
8:15 to 11:08 - 27 points: Port Adelaide v Hawthorn (19 May)
11:09 to 14:02 - 25 points: Sydney v Collingwood (9 August)
14:03 to 15:37 - 22 points: Port Adelaide v Hawthorn (19 May)
15:38 to 17:18 - 21 points: Port Adelaide v Hawthorn (19 May)
17:19 to 17:58 - 20 points: Port Adelaide v Hawthorn (19 May) + GWS v Brisbane (14 September)
17:59 to 18:34 - 20 points: Port Adelaide v Hawthorn (19 May)
18:35 to 20:20 - 19 points: Port Adelaide v Hawthorn (19 May)
20:21 to 24:32 - 19 points: North Melbourne v West Coast (10 August)
24:33 to 25:15 - 16 points: GWS v Hawthorn (4 August)
25:16 to 27:16 - 14 points: North Melbourne v West Coast (10 August)
27:17 to 30:40 - 13 points: North Melbourne v West Coast (10 August)
30:41 to 32:37 - 11 points: Port Adelaide v Hawthorn (19 May)
32:38 to 33:47 - 5 points: Port Adelaide v Hawthorn (19 May)
33:48 to FT - 1 point: North Melbourne v West Coast (10 August)

AFL Tables uses the count-up clock, so it's hard to properly assess end-of-game comebacks, but hopefully you get the idea. Most of these games listed from quarter time onwards I'd suggest are reasonably easy to recall.

So to answer the original question, it was Callum Ah Chee

4

Callum Ah Chee

Age

28

Ht

182cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.5

3star

D

11.1

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.1

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

0.1

3star

D

9.4

3star

K

4.4

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

3.0

5star

G

0.8

4star

's first goal of the 3rd quarter which, based on this analysis, sealed victory. This goal took the margin out to 53 points, 8:11 into the 3rd quarter, which blew the margin out beyond the 48 points from where Collingwood came back to beat North Melbourne.

Anyway at some stage I might see if I can flesh this out to include matches from previous seasons. I reckon the Miracle On Grass might get a run somewhere

 

[Elixuh]

Charlie knew we had won before halftime.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Now here is a stat.

First goal of every final this year, sorted by earliest to latest

0:26 - Bulldogs v Hawthorn Elimination Final
1:08 - Swans v Port Prelim Final
2:56 - Port v Geelong Qualifying Final
3:42 - Port v Hawthorn Semi Final
4:31 - Swans v Giants Qualifying Final

5:56 - Giants v Lions Semi Final
9:56 - Grand Final
12:13 - Lions v Blues Elimination Final
18:56 - Cats v Lions Prelim Final

It's an interesting trend if nothing else. It seemed a lot of our games this year would start off a bit slowly then kick into gear midway through the first quarter. I wonder if this was some sort of instruction to play more conservatively/defensively early in quarters.

In the Grand Final I think we only kicked 2 of our 18 goals in the first half of quarters, which is quite staggering really.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Now here is a stat.

First goal of every final this year, sorted by earliest to latest

0:26 - Bulldogs v Hawthorn Elimination Final
1:08 - Swans v Port Prelim Final
2:56 - Port v Geelong Qualifying Final
3:42 - Port v Hawthorn Semi Final
4:31 - Swans v Giants Qualifying Final

5:56 - Giants v Lions Semi Final
9:56 - Grand Final
12:13 - Lions v Blues Elimination Final
18:56 - Cats v Lions Prelim Final

It's an interesting trend if nothing else. It seemed a lot of our games this year would start off a bit slowly then kick into gear midway through the first quarter. I wonder if this was some sort of instruction to play more conservatively/defensively early in quarters.

In the Grand Final I think we only kicked 2 of our 18 goals in the first half of quarters, which is quite staggering really.

Red time specialists

 

[Grasshopper17]

Saints' stunner over Dees among their best: Your club's biggest comeback win

Check out your club's biggest ever comeback win

www.afl.com.au

We are the only club with at least 5 comebacks of 44 points or more.

Heck, there are 6 clubs who have never had a bigger comeback than 44 points at all.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Saints' stunner over Dees among their best: Your club's biggest comeback win

Check out your club's biggest ever comeback win

www.afl.com.au

We are the only club with at least 5 comebacks of 44 points or more.

Heck, there are 6 clubs who have never had a bigger comeback than 44 points at all.

Best 4th quarter team of all time?

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

All-time finals results sorted by win percentage:

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

How high is Fitzroy in that table by the way? They may not have made the finals too often in their last 50 years but they gave a bloody good account of themselves when they did

Unlike some others (coughs up black and white genes)

 

[Jivlain]

How high is Fitzroy in that table by the way? They may not have made the finals too often in their last 50 years but they gave a bloody good account of themselves when they did

Unlike some others (coughs up black and white genes)

Don't get many clubs winning a spoon and a flag in the same season either

 

[dlanod]

Don't get many clubs winning a spoon and a flag in the same season either

We pulled that in my Div 1 netball comp that just finished. Four teams, didn't beat a fellow Div 1 all season team until the GF (the SF was forfeited to us).

Everyone looked confused when I mentioned it was the first time since Fitzroy in 1944. Heathens.

They did get the Bradbury comparison I made next at least.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Everyone looked confused when I mentioned it was the first time since Fitzroy in 1944. Heathens.

Maybe they just knew their footy history and knew it wasn't 1944 at all

 

[dlanod]

Maybe they just knew their footy history and knew it wasn't 1944 at all

Lol. All this time I thought it was WWII... It seemed fitting that Fitzroy's most recent premiership was bizarre!

 

[Grasshopper17]

Lol. All this time I thought it was WWII... It seemed fitting that Fitzroy's most recent premiership was bizarre!

To be fair, squeezing 43,000 into the Junction Oval for that Grand Final in 1944 would indeed have been bizarre.