Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Jivlain]

Interesting. How did you get this data?

If it's possible to see some data, it's possible to record it.

 

[BRAB]

If it's possible to see some data, it's possible to record it.

Wait did you do that manually? That must have taken ages

 

[Elixuh]

If it's possible to see some data, it's possible to record it.

The data equivalent saying of you got a door you got a gym

 

[Jivlain]

Wait did you do that manually? That must have taken ages

The data equivalent saying of you got a door you got a gym

I'm a programmer, there's no reason I can't automate that process.

 

[BRAB]

I'm a programmer, there's no reason I can't automate that process.

Just admit that you’re Ben Hudson.

 

[Jivlain]

Just admit that you’re Ben Hudson.

There's no reason both things can't be true

 

[Tom14]

Some more depressing stats about our goalkicking:

Equal 5th best quality of shot, worst conversion:




Three of our players in the bottom six, Charlie the worst for accuracy:

 

[Elixuh]

Some more depressing stats about our goalkicking:

Equal 5th best quality of shot, worst conversion:




Three of our players in the bottom six, Charlie the worst for accuracy:

Oh dear. We have also generated significantly less shots than most of the top teams.

 

[Tom14]

Oh dear. We have also generated significantly less shots than most of the top teams.

Yeah, but that's to be expected when you are 2-5. Less shots is a function of our broken ball movement and forward structure (and losing basically every groundball inside f50).

Missing this many shots means that the warts we have look even worse than they are.

 

[Elixuh]

Yeah, but that's to be expected when you are 2-5. Less shots is a function of our broken ball movement and forward structure (and losing basically every groundball inside f50).

Missing this many shots means that the warts we have look even worse than they are.

Sorry, yep I should have finished my thought, 100% agree.

 

[Tom14]

Take 2 - now posting this in the correct thread.

Once again, bad kicking is bad football:

 

[KissKiss]

Take 2 - now posting this in the correct thread.

Once again, bad kicking is bad football:

Bad sign when our most accurate goal kicker is barely kicking above the expected. Whether its confidence or something else, but our goal kicking is massively hurting us this year

 

[Elixuh]

3-5 years ago it seemed like we had quite a large spread of goal kickers. Do the stats say that is still the case? Feels like it’s not.

 

[Grasshopper17]

3-5 years ago it seemed like we had quite a large spread of goal kickers. Do the stats say that is still the case? Feels like it’s not.

I felt like this changed last year and reflected the greater focus from our midfield on team defence etc. Perhaps they weren't getting forward as much thus we started scoring a higher % of goals via our forwards.

 

[dlanod]

3-5 years ago it seemed like we had quite a large spread of goal kickers. Do the stats say that is still the case? Feels like it’s not.

It's not, but predominantly because we're not kicking enough goals for there to be a large spread in recent games.

 

[Section 5]

It's not, but predominantly because we're not kicking enough goals for there to be a large spread in recent games.

Yes Zorko gobbled up 50 percent of of our goals in the Cat's game

On Lenovo TB-X606F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Bob Neil]

It's only a matter of time. I'm currently brainstorming a model which might allow someone (ie a coaching group) to objectively measure momentum in a game, informing a decision as to whether to put a spare man behind the ball, or play an extra at stoppages, whatever.

You might think about how many goals goals you've conceded (the last 2, 4 of the last 5), how many of the last 5-10 inside 50s, how many of the last 5-10 clearances, time in forward half in the last 10 minutes, un/contested marks in the last 10 minutes, whatever.

And this is very likely just the start. ChatGPT might be a little crude, but it's only a matter of time before the game goes further down that path. Collingwood's move to have Leppitsch separated from the rest of the coaching group tomorrow night might be the first step.

G'day Grasshopper17 - just saw your post from a month or so back and wanted to share that this was something that had crossed my mind over the past year or so.

I did create an Excel model for momentum based on the scientific formula Momentum (p) = mass (m) × velocity (v).

I substituted in the team's current score for Mass and their Points Per Minute (based on the last 5/10/whatever minutes of play) for Velocity. I used some of the data from the afl.com Match Timeline info (see example below) to help build this out.

From memory it was actually quite instructive in helping identify turning points in momentum in the match but didn't get much further than that.

Not sure if that will provide any inspiration but please feel free to cite me in your upcoming groundbreaking research which will no doubt be acquired by Champion Data!

 

[Grasshopper17]

G'day Grasshopper17 - just saw your post from a month or so back and wanted to share that this was something that had crossed my mind over the past year or so.

I did create an Excel model for momentum based on the scientific formula Momentum (p) = mass (m) × velocity (v).

I substituted in the team's current score for Mass and their Points Per Minute (based on the last 5/10/whatever minutes of play) for Velocity. I used some of the data from the afl.com Match Timeline info (see example below) to help build this out.

From memory it was actually quite instructive in helping identify turning points in momentum in the match but didn't get much further than that.

Not sure if that will provide any inspiration but please feel free to cite me in your upcoming groundbreaking research which will no doubt be acquired by Champion Data!



View attachment 1975238

Nice. How do Adelaide generally fare when playing with unequal numbers? Is this something they initiate themselves as a general rule or do they prefer to play one on one?

We tend to go much better when it's 6-6-6 which is what prompted my initial thoughts.

 

[Bob Neil]

Nice. How do Adelaide generally fare when playing with unequal numbers? Is this something they initiate themselves as a general rule or do they prefer to play one on one?

We tend to go much better when it's 6-6-6 which is what prompted my initial thoughts.

Our tried and tested method is to bring an extra up to the contest and to then dump kick from a dirty clearance to ensure that the opposition's best intercept marking defender has a career-best game. It's going well!

 

[Grasshopper17]

Meanwhile back at the ranch, Daniel "Rocks In My Head" Hoyne is STILL not jumping off our Lions!



Also, bonus drinking game this week: you have to take a shot every time Hoyney says "if you like". Prepare to be on the floor after 20 minutes.

 

[Tom14]

Comprehensive, data driven and concerning:

How the two most important kicks in football are letting the Brisbane Lions down

With just two wins from seven starts this season, the Brisbane Lions need to nail the fundamentals if they are to turn around their fortunes, writes Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Nathan Barley]

Comprehensive, data driven and concerning:

How the two most important kicks in football are letting the Brisbane Lions down

With just two wins from seven starts this season, the Brisbane Lions need to nail the fundamentals if they are to turn around their fortunes, writes Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson.

www.abc.net.au

Interesting that our pressure has been good

Not sure about front half intercepts being a great stat. But difference winning it back 80m out than 40m out

Clear as day our kicking inside 50 and goal kicking has been woeful.

Not a great look for Zorko who’s kicking up the field has looked good

 

[Nunez]

Really need McKenna to fire. Has had a few weeks to get back into the swing of things.

 

[knaf]

Comprehensive, data driven and concerning:

How the two most important kicks in football are letting the Brisbane Lions down

With just two wins from seven starts this season, the Brisbane Lions need to nail the fundamentals if they are to turn around their fortunes, writes Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson.

www.abc.net.au

Great to read such in depth data driven analysts. Really shows where we are falling down.

Good to see Fletcher improving in such a critical role. As you say really need McKenna firing. I hope to see at least two or three effective in side 50 kicks from Reville today.

And Fages, I hate to be a BigFooty knaf, but we need a more effective third tall forward option than Gardiner.

 

[rye]

Really need McKenna to fire. Has had a few weeks to get back into the swing of things.

last week was his first game back in the seniors