Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[CarterS]

I’ve posted all about our pre-bye form since the byes inception in 2011 a number of times last week.

The loss yesterday makes it 0-10 in the match before a bye playing away. Amazing that more wasn’t made of it before the game or even raised by Fagan pre Hawthorn game.

Amazing statistic isn't it

 

[CarterS]

3 games at the gabba against hawthorn since 2009, 15 away. Absurd.

Yeah if you were a brisbane based Hawk you'd be ropable.
\

 

[Nathan Barley]

 

[briztoon]

Caught a bit of Hoyne on SEN on the drive home.

Was talking about the extreme drop off of Neale and Dunkley’s clearances leading to a score.

Of the top 50 clearance players, Neale rates last and Dunkley third last.

Highlights team wide issues.

 

[Tom14]

Per Daniel Hoyne - Logan Morris is the 4th highest rated key forward in the comp over the last 6 weeks (basically since his debut).

Reville is also a top 10 winger since his debut apparently. Caveat - based on AFL player ratings, so ignore if you don’t like that stat.

Also a general point on us:




Accuracy has gone from last to being mid-table in the last few weeks as well.

 

[Nathan Barley]

You wonder how much the Richmond thrashing influences those stats

 

[Tom14]

You wonder how much the Richmond thrashing influences those stats

Definitely skewing the accuracy stat positively.

 

[Grasshopper17]

luthor was asking about our red time performances this season. This is the first year I've tracked this after the Grand Final debacle. My definition of red time is the last 5 minutes of quarters, based on the countdown clock. So essentially it's the last quarter of each quarter.

Coming into this round our overall red time record was 14th best in the comp at 90.7%. Obviously with the current round still in progress I don't yet know where we'll be ranked by the end of the round but certainly our % will get a bit of an uptick.

These are our red time performances round by round so far:

Opening Round: 1 v Carlton 26
Round 1: 20 v Fremantle 50
Round 3: 18 v Collingwood 25
Round 4: 27 v North Melbourne 3
Round 5: 9 v Melbourne 19
Round 6: 4 v Geelong 16
Round 7: 9 v GWS 28
Round 8: 13 v Gold Coast 9
Round 9: 27 v Adelaide 22
Round 10: 37 v Richmond 4
Round 11: 14 v Hawthorn 27
Round 13: 44 v Western Bulldogs 17
Round 14: 51 v St Kilda 10

We were 18th at Round 8. Yes, below North and Richmond.

For comparison, our score of 1 against Carlton is the equal lowest for the year by any team. No team has been held scoreless in red time. Fremantle also scored 1 against Sydney (conceding 9), while GWS scored 1 against Geelong, conceding 15.

The best red time score is 58. That was by Collingwood against Port (conceding 7) and twice today, by the Bulldogs against Freo (conceding 13) and by Sydney against Adelaide (conceding 8).

Collingwood's 58-7 record against Port is also the biggest red time margin (51) of the year.

 

[Elixuh]

luthor was asking about our red time performances this season. This is the first year I've tracked this after the Grand Final debacle. My definition of red time is the last 5 minutes of quarters, based on the countdown clock. So essentially it's the last quarter of each quarter.

Coming into this round our overall red time record was 14th best in the comp at 90.7%. Obviously with the current round still in progress I don't get know where we'll be ranked by the end of the round but certainly our % will get a bit of an uptick.

These are our red time performances round by round so far:

Opening Round: 1 v Carlton 26
Round 1: 20 v Fremantle 50
Round 3: 18 v Collingwood 25
Round 4: 27 v North Melbourne 3
Round 5: 9 v Melbourne 19
Round 6: 4 v Geelong 16
Round 7: 9 v GWS 28
Round 8: 13 v Gold Coast 9
Round 9: 27 v Adelaide 22
Round 10: 37 v Richmond 4
Round 11: 14 v Hawthorn 27
Round 13: 44 v Western Bulldogs 17
Round 14: 51 v St Kilda 10

We were 18th at Round 8. Yes, below North and Richmond.

For comparison, our score of 1 against Carlton is the equal lowest for the year by any team. No team has been held scoreless in red time. Fremantle also scored 1 against Sydney (conceding 9), while GWS scored 1 against Geelong, conceding 15.

The best red time score is 58. That was by Collingwood against Port (conceding 7) and twice today, by the Bulldogs against Freo (conceding 13) and by Sydney against Adelaide (conceding 8).

Collingwood's 58-7 record against Port is also the biggest red time margin (51) of the year.

It easy to do could you show our red time scores for each game pls good sir

 

[Grasshopper17]

It easy to do could you show our red time scores for each game pls good sir

I believe I have?

 

[Elixuh]

I believe I have?

Are you saying I can’t read? Because I can’t.

 

[Elixuh]

luthor was asking about our red time performances this season. This is the first year I've tracked this after the Grand Final debacle. My definition of red time is the last 5 minutes of quarters, based on the countdown clock. So essentially it's the last quarter of each quarter.

Coming into this round our overall red time record was 14th best in the comp at 90.7%. Obviously with the current round still in progress I don't get know where we'll be ranked by the end of the round but certainly our % will get a bit of an uptick.

These are our red time performances round by round so far:

Opening Round: 1 v Carlton 26
Round 1: 20 v Fremantle 50
Round 3: 18 v Collingwood 25
Round 4: 27 v North Melbourne 3
Round 5: 9 v Melbourne 19
Round 6: 4 v Geelong 16
Round 7: 9 v GWS 28
Round 8: 13 v Gold Coast 9
Round 9: 27 v Adelaide 22
Round 10: 37 v Richmond 4
Round 11: 14 v Hawthorn 27
Round 13: 44 v Western Bulldogs 17
Round 14: 51 v St Kilda 10

We were 18th at Round 8. Yes, below North and Richmond.

For comparison, our score of 1 against Carlton is the equal lowest for the year by any team. No team has been held scoreless in red time. Fremantle also scored 1 against Sydney (conceding 9), while GWS scored 1 against Geelong, conceding 15.

The best red time score is 58. That was by Collingwood against Port (conceding 7) and twice today, by the Bulldogs against Freo (conceding 13) and by Sydney against Adelaide (conceding 8).

Collingwood's 58-7 record against Port is also the biggest red time margin (51) of the year.

So is the takeaway here that red time isn’t an issue for us when we are in form and playing our brand effectively?

Melbourne game aside.

 

[Grasshopper17]

So is the takeaway here that red time isn’t an issue for us when we are in form and playing our brand effectively?

Melbourne game aside.

On the back of last night's performance our red time % has risen to 107.0. Compared to our full game % of 115.8, I suppose this is now getting into the realm where it could be considered "natural variation", rather than any sort of pattern or indicator of a long term trend.

Having said that, I would like to see us get to the stage where our red time (and last quarter) performances are regularly exceeding our full game performances. This will lead to more performances like last Friday's against the Bulldogs, and less performances like the Carlton game, the Melbourne fade-out, the rollovers against Freo and the Giants, and the near miss last night.

It's telling that in just 13 games we can readily identify 5 performances which match the trends we've been concerned about for at least a couple of years now, and only 1 which matches what I think we'd like to see.

There's much to be said for an opponent knowing they're cooked once they get X goals down against us. We saw this exact thing tonight in Adelaide. Better to have them in that mindset than "these guys take their foot off the pedal all the time, we're still right in this".

If nothing else, I know we have a number of, how do I say, "more experienced" supporters on this forum... I'm just thinking of their health here

 

[Nathan Barley]

luthor was asking about our red time performances this season. This is the first year I've tracked this after the Grand Final debacle. My definition of red time is the last 5 minutes of quarters, based on the countdown clock. So essentially it's the last quarter of each quarter.

Coming into this round our overall red time record was 14th best in the comp at 90.7%. Obviously with the current round still in progress I don't yet know where we'll be ranked by the end of the round but certainly our % will get a bit of an uptick.

These are our red time performances round by round so far:

Opening Round: 1 v Carlton 26
Round 1: 20 v Fremantle 50
Round 3: 18 v Collingwood 25
Round 4: 27 v North Melbourne 3
Round 5: 9 v Melbourne 19
Round 6: 4 v Geelong 16
Round 7: 9 v GWS 28
Round 8: 13 v Gold Coast 9
Round 9: 27 v Adelaide 22
Round 10: 37 v Richmond 4
Round 11: 14 v Hawthorn 27
Round 13: 44 v Western Bulldogs 17
Round 14: 51 v St Kilda 10

We were 18th at Round 8. Yes, below North and Richmond.

For comparison, our score of 1 against Carlton is the equal lowest for the year by any team. No team has been held scoreless in red time. Fremantle also scored 1 against Sydney (conceding 9), while GWS scored 1 against Geelong, conceding 15.

The best red time score is 58. That was by Collingwood against Port (conceding 7) and twice today, by the Bulldogs against Freo (conceding 13) and by Sydney against Adelaide (conceding 8).

Collingwood's 58-7 record against Port is also the biggest red time margin (51) of the year.

So maybe a form issue and not a fitness issue?

 

[Grasshopper17]

So maybe a form issue and not a fitness issue?

The longer term trends indicate otherwise. This is the first year I've tracked red time scoring. I can't go back and do previous years without literally watching every game, because the AFL code every score using the count-up clock.

(And don't get me started on how it's 2024 and we still have this archaic count-up clock at all: a relic of a long bygone era of inadequate technology).

But our last quarter record is still poor and has worsened again this year. 96.8% in 2023 and now 89.2% in 2024. This 40-game sample size is enough to say more than simply form is involved.

 

[briztoon]

So maybe a form issue and not a fitness issue?

I wouldn’t call it form.

I would call it a tactic. Which doesn’t appear to work against experienced sides.

It looks like we deliberately go in to a game saving mode. You can generally see us change tactics or strategy.

Why we do it, I don’t know.

 

[Dalions]

I wouldn’t call it form.

I would call it a tactic. Which doesn’t appear to work against experienced sides.

It looks like we deliberately go in to a game saving mode. You can generally see us change tactics or strategy.

Why we do it, I don’t know.

As soon as we send a spare back in defence it appears the give the midfielders this false sense of security and they stop hunting the ball and stop defending.
And then we get scored against quite easily late in quarters.

 

[Nathan Barley]

I wouldn’t call it form.

I would call it a tactic. Which doesn’t appear to work against experienced sides.

It looks like we deliberately go in to a game saving mode. You can generally see us change tactics or strategy.

Why we do it, I don’t know.

Looked like we were sending Ah Chee back on Friday

 

[martinson]

Looked like we were sending Ah Chee back on Friday

What worries me is that JMO that it cost us , or at the least was a significant contributing factor ,to us losing the GF.

But we've still decided it's our go to factor in the dying stages of quarters ,particulaly when we have a lead.

I can only presume the thinking is that it wasn't the tactic that brought us undone ,more about the execution.

My view is that it's not a worthwhile tactic for a team that has form for clocking off .

 

[Dalions]

Looked like we were sending Ah Chee back on Friday

At the game I noticed it on one occasion. Might have been late in the third.

 

[KissKiss]

Looked like we were sending Ah Chee back on Friday

The weirdest thing is it seems to be a different player every week. The week before it was Daniher. So its clearly a tactic to do this but we don't have the same player doing it so everyone can be on the same page. We seem to rotate around every time and noone seems comfortable doing it

 

[Grasshopper17]

The weirdest thing is it seems to be a different player every week. The week before it was Daniher. So its clearly a tactic to do this but we don't have the same player doing it so everyone can be on the same page. We seem to rotate around every time and noone seems comfortable doing it

To be honest I think Joe has looked pretty comfortable doing it. Well, the most comfortable doing it anyway. Has kept a pretty cool head, made good decisions usually and executed well most of the time.

 

[Grasshopper17]

For what it's worth I don't think any of this tactical discussion is particularly relevant to how our 37 point 3 quarter time lead became 7 with 10 minutes to play on Friday night.

But I'll go a bit deeper on this in the review thread.

 

[martinson]

To be honest I think Joe has looked pretty comfortable doing it. Well, the most comfortable doing it anyway. Has kept a pretty cool head, made good decisions usually and executed well most of the time.

He's been by far the most competent. Takes marks which the rest struggle with and makes sensible decisions with disposal.

If they ever throw Rayner back there again my pacemaker won't be able to take it.

 

[Elixuh]