-
Mobile App Discontinued
Due to a number of factors, support for the current BigFooty mobile app has been discontinued. Your BigFooty login will no longer work on the Tapatalk or the BigFooty App - which is based on Tapatalk.
Apologies for any inconvenience. We will try to find a replacement.
Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread
- Thread starter Grasshopper17
- Start date
- Tagged users None
🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.
Grasshopper17
They're goin' all the way the orange tsunami
- Mar 12, 2003
- 6,986
- 12,927
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Brisbane
- Thread starter
- #77
I've posed this question to the author, who is normally pretty responsive. My hypothesis is he is kicking from further out this season, hence the entries are lower percentage. Still, the drop-off is stark.
Jivlain
Hammelmann Appreciation Society
AFL Fantasy Club Board Champion
Lions Board Service Medal
AFL Fantasy Club Board Champion
AFL Fantasy Club Board Champion
Brisbane Lions - Charlie Cameron Player Sponsor 2020
Brisbane Lions - Charlie Cameron Player Sponsor 2019
Brisbane Lions - Hugh McCluggage Player Sponsor 2018
Brisbane Lions Board Tipping Champion
- Sep 19, 2015
- 9,279
- 16,647
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Swansea City
- Moderator
- #78
| Quarter | Time | Off | On |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noah Answerth, Logan Morris, Kai Lohmann, Harry Sharp, Jarrod Berry | ||
| 6m | Darcy Wilmot, Lincoln McCarthy | Noah Answerth, Kai Lohmann | |
| 7m | Hugh McCluggage, Bruce Reville | Jarrod Berry, Harry Sharp | |
| 10m | Lachie Neale, Dayne Zorko | Hugh McCluggage, Darcy Wilmot | |
| 13m | Oscar McInerney, Conor McKenna | Bruce Reville, Logan Morris | |
| 15m | Charlie Cameron | Dayne Zorko | |
| 16m | Joe Daniher, Jack Payne | Oscar McInerney, Conor McKenna | |
| 17m | Cam Rayner | Lachie Neale | |
| 18m | Jaspa Fletcher | Charlie Cameron | |
| 20m | Josh Dunkley | Cam Rayner | |
| 21m | Ryan Lester, Darcy Gardiner | Joe Daniher, Jack Payne | |
| 24m | Harry Sharp, Noah Answerth | Ryan Lester, Jaspa Fletcher | |
| 26m | Jarrod Berry, Eric Hipwood | Josh Dunkley, Darcy Gardiner | |
| 2 | Cam Rayner, Darcy Wilmot | Jarrod Berry, Harry Sharp | |
| 1m | Logan Morris | Eric Hipwood | |
| 7m | Bruce Reville | Cam Rayner | |
| 9m | Darcy Gardiner | Logan Morris | |
| 10m | Jaspa Fletcher | Darcy Wilmot | |
| 12m | Hugh McCluggage | Bruce Reville | |
| 14m | Lachie Neale | Hugh McCluggage | |
| 15m | Jarrod Berry, Dayne Zorko | Jaspa Fletcher, Lachie Neale | |
| 17m | Jack Payne | Dayne Zorko | |
| 21m | Conor McKenna | Jack Payne | |
| 22m | Josh Dunkley | Jarrod Berry | |
| 26m | Logan Morris | Josh Dunkley | |
| 3 | Jaspa Fletcher | Conor McKenna | |
| 6m | Bruce Reville, Ryan Lester | Jaspa Fletcher, Logan Morris | |
| 11m | Lachie Neale, Dayne Zorko | Ryan Lester, Bruce Reville | |
| 14m | Bruce Reville | Lachie Neale | |
| 16m | Conor McKenna | Dayne Zorko | |
| 20m | Harris Andrews | Conor McKenna | |
| 25m | Jarrod Berry, Charlie Cameron | Bruce Reville, Harris Andrews | |
| 27m | Bruce Reville | Jarrod Berry | |
| 4 | Logan Morris, Conor McKenna | Charlie Cameron, Bruce Reville | |
| 5m | Bruce Reville, Jaspa Fletcher | Logan Morris, Conor McKenna | |
| 8m | Jarrod Berry | Jaspa Fletcher | |
| 12m | Logan Morris | Bruce Reville | |
| 18m | Bruce Reville | Jarrod Berry | |
| 20m | Cam Rayner | Logan Morris | |
| 25m | Logan Morris | Cam Rayner |
KissKiss
Norm Smith Medallist
- Nov 26, 2012
- 9,475
- 12,610
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Massive effort by a bunch of guys who got almost zero rest after the first quarter. Most of the senior players might have got one rest in the second half
Log in to remove this Banner Ad
I have a funny feeling that Charlie is regularly getting jabs for his ankles/feet and this may be having a negative effect on his "feel" when kicking for goal. Just a thought.
Correct. He's not right. The look on his face when he kicked the last goal was one of total exhaustion and relief. He could have a slight hammy issue as well.
Tom14
Brownlow Medallist
- Oct 13, 2015
- 12,636
- 32,482
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
I reckon Charlie has been pretty hit and miss conversion wise since mid last year. He was pretty good at drop punt set shots from memory but his snaps have been really bad for a while.
But injury could well be making it worse.
But injury could well be making it worse.
Charlie's a bit of a confidence player and when something's not right he struggles .
The good thing is he's doing the team things he can do without thinking and without feeling the pressure of having to kick goals.
I don't know what his conversion rate is on the around the corners but I don't remember too many he's nailed. Set shots he seemed to sort last year as you say now it's just set up for the kick in.
Grasshopper17
They're goin' all the way the orange tsunami
- Mar 12, 2003
- 6,986
- 12,927
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Brisbane
- Thread starter
- #84
9.30 
9.30
Well our defence is working really well then isn't it to concede the same number of points when we have gone from creaming it to being virtually unable to score ( comparatively )
Dalions
Premium Platinum
- Aug 12, 2016
- 19,288
- 31,946
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
9.30
Hit smack bang on our average ‘points’ in Q3 last night didn’t we.
9 point wonders.
We've probably done well to win 3 games and when you consider the other 2 we coughed up and the injuries we're going ok.
I'm hoping 2024 proves to be cathartic in that we weathered the storm and come out a lot stronger mentally in 2025 and beyond. Plus finding 3 or 4 young players.
HereIGoAgain
All Australian
- Nov 30, 2022
- 720
- 1,505
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Counterintuitive but I was a bit relieved that the ball was down our end even with the spate of points kicked in that third quarter. May have contributed to a few of the players further afield getting a bit of a breather.
Tom14
Brownlow Medallist
- Oct 13, 2015
- 12,636
- 32,482
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Heard an incredible stat from Xavier Ellis on the West’s footy podcast (despite having Xavier on it I think it’s a good show normally).
Apparently, Joe and Eric…..
Don’t kick many goals when we lose.
Wow!!!
Apparently, Joe and Eric…..
Don’t kick many goals when we lose.
Wow!!!
- May 3, 2015
- 21,299
- 25,114
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
A surprise
- Jun 27, 2017
- 1,872
- 4,412
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Not exactly a great stat considering nowadays you have stats that account for kick difficulty.
Still makes sense since Zorko went to halfback so is essentially another kick away and Clugs having a down season in terms of his kicking.
Section 5
Norm Smith Medallist
- Nov 26, 2018
- 9,308
- 14,883
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
This from footywire.
Jo certainly does get up the ground during a game.
Footywires stat does not have a "based on how often their team retains possession" just who leads the stat.
So I thought about digging into a few different stats this morning to see what I could find that might be interesting. The first was a cheeky review into Charlie Cameron this year to get an idea about just how out of form he is. These are his expected score +/- for each round this year:
R0 Carlton -6.8
R1 Freo -4.9
R3 Pies -2.2
R4 NM +0.9
R5 Melb -6.5
R6 Geel -5.2
R7 GWS -0.9
R8 GC -3.0
R9 Ade -3.7
R10 Rick +3.7
R11 Hawks -11.1
That puts him a total of -39.7 points in expected score across the entire season. In comparison here are a few other players across the season expected score totals to round 11:
Joe Danniher -20.8 (11 Games)
Eric Hipwood -11.5 (10 Games)
Lincoln McCarthy +5.5 (8 Games)
Kai Lohhman +0.2 (11 Games)
Cam Rayner -6.8 (11 Games)
Callum Ah Chee +5.7 (10 Games)
Logan Morris +1.0 (4 Games)
If we extract this out to the actual scores for our main forwards with year:
(Total Goals Total Behinds - Avg Goals Avg Behinds)
Danniher - 20.21 (1.82g 1.91b)
Cameron - 18.16 (1.64g - 1.45b)
Lohmann - 14.10 (1.27g - 0.91b)
Hipwood - 11.10 (1.10b - 1.0b)
McCarthy - 8.9 (1.0g - 1.12b)
Rayner - 7.5 (0.73g - 0.45b)
Morris - 7.5 (1.75g - 1.25b)
I think overall this shows that the eye test for Cameron is very much what you would expect. He isn't really getting more or less shots then usual (last season he went 2.27g 1.04b averages across the year), but his accuracy on the expected scores have been way down. Had to pull his shot chart up from the telecast as well (thanks AFL for having dogshit fan stat access) and it is even more dire then what I thought.
He's basically kicked (excluding the clumpof goals he has from what appears to be 0-20m directly infront):
5Goals 12Behinds and 9 Did Not Score
That puts his goal kicking accuracy at 19% for the year.
The good news IMO about all this is that the issue isn't that he's lost a yard of pace and about to fall off a cliff. His shot generation hasn't changed since last year, it's just his conversion has been terrible. If he can get his head right for the back half of the season then we might be able to actually put a string of wins together.
One other interesting piece to note out of this is how bloody well Logan Morris is doing 4 games in. He has pretty much become out most dangerous forward and has done very well to replace Lincs missing output up forward. 7g5b in 4 games is an insane return for a first year third tall.
R0 Carlton -6.8
R1 Freo -4.9
R3 Pies -2.2
R4 NM +0.9
R5 Melb -6.5
R6 Geel -5.2
R7 GWS -0.9
R8 GC -3.0
R9 Ade -3.7
R10 Rick +3.7
R11 Hawks -11.1
That puts him a total of -39.7 points in expected score across the entire season. In comparison here are a few other players across the season expected score totals to round 11:
Joe Danniher -20.8 (11 Games)
Eric Hipwood -11.5 (10 Games)
Lincoln McCarthy +5.5 (8 Games)
Kai Lohhman +0.2 (11 Games)
Cam Rayner -6.8 (11 Games)
Callum Ah Chee +5.7 (10 Games)
Logan Morris +1.0 (4 Games)
If we extract this out to the actual scores for our main forwards with year:
(Total Goals Total Behinds - Avg Goals Avg Behinds)
Danniher - 20.21 (1.82g 1.91b)
Cameron - 18.16 (1.64g - 1.45b)
Lohmann - 14.10 (1.27g - 0.91b)
Hipwood - 11.10 (1.10b - 1.0b)
McCarthy - 8.9 (1.0g - 1.12b)
Rayner - 7.5 (0.73g - 0.45b)
Morris - 7.5 (1.75g - 1.25b)
I think overall this shows that the eye test for Cameron is very much what you would expect. He isn't really getting more or less shots then usual (last season he went 2.27g 1.04b averages across the year), but his accuracy on the expected scores have been way down. Had to pull his shot chart up from the telecast as well (thanks AFL for having dogshit fan stat access) and it is even more dire then what I thought.
He's basically kicked (excluding the clumpof goals he has from what appears to be 0-20m directly infront):
5Goals 12Behinds and 9 Did Not Score
That puts his goal kicking accuracy at 19% for the year.
The good news IMO about all this is that the issue isn't that he's lost a yard of pace and about to fall off a cliff. His shot generation hasn't changed since last year, it's just his conversion has been terrible. If he can get his head right for the back half of the season then we might be able to actually put a string of wins together.
One other interesting piece to note out of this is how bloody well Logan Morris is doing 4 games in. He has pretty much become out most dangerous forward and has done very well to replace Lincs missing output up forward. 7g5b in 4 games is an insane return for a first year third tall.
🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.
Darren Downunder
Team Captain
- Apr 26, 2024
- 431
- 1,253
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Thanks, Sanchez. This is really interesting. So the problem seems to be between the ears. It makes we wonder whether that is where the problem is for the whole team.
Brisbane and losing away games before the bye, name a better duo...
2024- lost to hawthorn away by 25
2023- lost to Adelaide away by 17
2022- lost to Fremantle away by 14
2021- lost to Melbourne away by 22
2020- covid- dont count
2019- lost to Carlton away by 15 (i remember this game,,, a huge carlton comeback)
2018- lost to Essendon home by 22
surprised it hasn't been picked up by media as one of their talking points- unless I've misread (definitely possible) if you forget the covid season, we have lost our last 6 games before the bye (didn't check further back because we were no good anyway). considering we've been amoungst the top 4 in that time it's an interesting trend.
the draw obviously goes by a certain structure and they just fill in certain gaps, we appear to get an away game before the bye every season by some quirk.
Last season we had away games either side of the bye as well, and lost both of them.
2024- lost to hawthorn away by 25
2023- lost to Adelaide away by 17
2022- lost to Fremantle away by 14
2021- lost to Melbourne away by 22
2020- covid- dont count
2019- lost to Carlton away by 15 (i remember this game,,, a huge carlton comeback)
2018- lost to Essendon home by 22
surprised it hasn't been picked up by media as one of their talking points- unless I've misread (definitely possible) if you forget the covid season, we have lost our last 6 games before the bye (didn't check further back because we were no good anyway). considering we've been amoungst the top 4 in that time it's an interesting trend.
the draw obviously goes by a certain structure and they just fill in certain gaps, we appear to get an away game before the bye every season by some quirk.
Last season we had away games either side of the bye as well, and lost both of them.
KissKiss
Norm Smith Medallist
- Nov 26, 2012
- 9,475
- 12,610
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
We have had such issues in getting up for away games for a while (I know they are harder than playing at home) but it just does ask the questions of the motivation. We just seem to so regularly have games that the players are checked out and put in minimal effort. Seems very likely that away and before a bye is one of those games were a bunch of guys are just mentally off
Tom14
Brownlow Medallist
- Oct 13, 2015
- 12,636
- 32,482
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
I look at this list and I say can we please have a home game before the bye? And can we play hawthorn at the gabba?
3 games at the gabba against hawthorn since 2009, 15 away. Absurd.
Dalions
Premium Platinum
- Aug 12, 2016
- 19,288
- 31,946
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
We also had a bye in Round 2 this year and lost an away game against Freo in Round 1 by 23 points.
