Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[briztoon]

Not hard to improve when you go from barely getting a game to playing every week.

 

[Grasshopper17]

On the back of last night's performance our red time % has risen to 107.0. Compared to our full game % of 115.8, I suppose this is now getting into the realm where it could be considered "natural variation", rather than any sort of pattern or indicator of a long term trend.

Having said that, I would like to see us get to the stage where our red time (and last quarter) performances are regularly exceeding our full game performances. This will lead to more performances like last Friday's against the Bulldogs, and less performances like the Carlton game, the Melbourne fade-out, the rollovers against Freo and the Giants, and the near miss last night.

It's telling that in just 13 games we can readily identify 5 performances which match the trends we've been concerned about for at least a couple of years now, and only 1 which matches what I think we'd like to see.

There's much to be said for an opponent knowing they're cooked once they get X goals down against us. We saw this exact thing tonight in Adelaide. Better to have them in that mindset than "these guys take their foot off the pedal all the time, we're still right in this".

If nothing else, I know we have a number of, how do I say, "more experienced" supporters on this forum... I'm just thinking of their health here

Update on this. We have risen from 14th to 6th on the back of Friday's game for red time

Still 13th for last quarters, down from 11th. 89.2%

 

[buttermuffs]

Not hard to improve when you go from barely getting a game to playing every week.

I wonder if it counts sun games as well, since Lohmann was sun a decent amount of times last year for basically all of his games played. Basically causes the stats to plummets by themselves.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Whoops, looks like Hoyney has jumped off us. Love him or hate him you certainly can't accuse him of swaying in the breeze. Think the comments and concerns are pretty valid.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Whoops, looks like Hoyney has jumped off us. Love him or hate him you certainly can't accuse him of swaying in the breeze. Think the comments and concerns are pretty valid.

Definitely got his feeling watching the saints and hawthorn games

 

[Elixuh]

Whoops, looks like Hoyney has jumped off us. Love him or hate him you certainly can't accuse him of swaying in the breeze. Think the comments and concerns are pretty valid.

Have we had to give up some aspects of our defensive game to build some scoring confidence or just a down patch defensively. I suppose it has yielded ok results the last few weeks, but don't know if it'll stack up against the really good teams.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Have we had to give up some aspects of our defensive game to build some scoring confidence or just a down patch defensively. I suppose it has yielded ok results the last few weeks, but don't know if it'll stack up against the really good teams.

I've been wondering this myself. Looks like we are still trying to find that right balance. Hopefully by lurching from one extreme to another, as it seems we've done, we are able to find a middle ground where we are able to get scoreboard rewards without the excessive risks that can sometimes cost us.

 

[Elixuh]

I've been wondering this myself. Looks like we are still trying to find that right balance. Hopefully by lurching from one extreme to another, as it seems we've done, we are able to find a middle ground where we are able to get scoreboard rewards without the excessive risks that can sometimes cost us.

I suppose for the St Kilda game, Fages said on that interview you posted that we intended to attack against the Saints to avoid them flooding back. So stands to reason if we turned it over or couldn't lock it in 50, it'd probably slingshot out and give the saints a decent look. And perhaps when you change your style to push attack so hard for a single game it really has the propensity to expose you the other way.

I would also LOVE to see the stats on Jack Higgins probability of kicking all those goals from 50 out. I genuinely thought he couldn't kick further than 35m.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I suppose for the St Kilda game, Fages said on that interview you posted that we intended to attack against the Saints to avoid them flooding back. So stands to reason if we turned it over or couldn't lock it in 50, it'd probably slingshot out and give the saints a decent look. And perhaps when you change your style to push attack so hard for a single game it really has the propensity to expose you the other way.

I would also LOVE to see the stats on Jack Higgins probability of kicking all those goals from 50 out. I genuinely thought he couldn't kick further than 35m.

For what it's worth, both teams beat expected scores by about the same:



Wheelo ratings has broken down the expected scores in the following manner:



So I guess on that measure Joe's goals were just as @rsey.

To your first point, that's the beauty and the peril of attacking quickly: you're more likely to have an open forward line. This both makes it easier to score and easier to be rebounded quickly against.

But I think I'd prefer this problem than the problems we saw earlier in the season. I'm quite sure there are better ways to address the risk of a quick rebound than simply to attack slower.

 

[Elixuh]

To your first point, that's the beauty and the peril of attacking quickly: you're more likely to have an open forward line. This both makes it easier to score and easier to be rebounded quickly against.

But I think I'd prefer this problem than the problems we saw earlier in the season. I'm quite sure there are better ways to address the risk of a quick rebound than simply to attack slower.

Yeah thats kind of what I'm getting at. If you change style to get the attacking confidence it probably will take a few weeks for the defensive side of the game to settle again and for us to find a better balance. So might lag a few weeks.

 

[KissKiss]

For what it's worth, both teams beat expected scores by about the same:



Wheelo ratings has broken down the expected scores in the following manner:



So I guess on that measure Joe's goals were just as @rsey.

I think Joe had those two goals from distance on the left flank that were really tough shots - Im guessing they were a big part of such such a big differential. Of course he missed that simple shot from dead infront as well.

 

[Dalions]

Although we have been pretty poor defensively at times this year we are still 4th overall for scores against.
So what that tells me is that our good games are still pretty good.
Sydney are number 1 with 903 against
Freo number 2 with 959
Melbourne with 1004
And us on 1005
So averaging 77.3 points against which is a damn long way better than when we were averaging 130 against in Fages first year.
We would need Port to kick 104 point on the weekend to fall any further than 4th this week.

If we can strike a better balance between attack and defence for the rest of the year we are still right in it.

 

[Nunez]

I've been wondering this myself. Looks like we are still trying to find that right balance. Hopefully by lurching from one extreme to another, as it seems we've done, we are able to find a middle ground where we are able to get scoreboard rewards without the excessive risks that can sometimes cost us.

This. We had the defensive aspects of our game very well drilled but couldn't get out offensive game going. We've done that but in turn robbed Peter to pay Paul.

I am confident we'll get the balance right. I think having Dew come in as an outsider and not a four-walls guy helps. He will have had some great feedback.

 

[buttermuffs]

Although we have been pretty poor defensively at times this year we are still 4th overall for scores against.
So what that tells me is that our good games are still pretty good.
Sydney are number 1 with 903 against
Freo number 2 with 959
Melbourne with 1004
And us on 1005
So averaging 77.3 points against which is a damn long way better than when we were averaging 130 against in Fages first year.
We would need Port to kick 104 point on the weekend to fall any further than 4th this week.

If we can strike a better balance between attack and defence for the rest of the year we are still right in it.

Some teams have played an extra game. Give it another week and we will have some better insight.

 

[T Rick]

To be honest I think Joe has looked pretty comfortable doing it. Well, the most comfortable doing it anyway. Has kept a pretty cool head, made good decisions usually and executed well most of the time.

Joe has been pivotal for us in the latter stages of tight games. I think it was in the away game against Freo last year that he played an exceptional role in us winning.

 

[Dalions]

Some teams have played an extra game. Give it another week and we will have some better insight.

Yep that’s why I wrote this line in the post your replied to.

“We would need Port to kick 104 points on the weekend to fall any further than 4th this week.”

To allow for those teams that have played an extra game.

 

[briztoon]

I have a bit of different view of the St Kilda turn around.

Ross released their defense when in possession shackles at quarter time.

They still set up defensively behind the ball, but went in to route 1 all out run and attack as soon as we turned the ball over. It wasn't straight down the middle either, it was run and overlap handball in waves.

Our usual kryptonite, our midfield can't handle teams that run hard both ways.

We're lucky that they turned it over so often, when they had to kick it.

 

[HereIGoAgain]

I have a bit of different view of the St Kilda turn around.

Ross released their defense when in possession shackles at quarter time.

They still set up defensively behind the ball, but went in to route 1 all out run and attack as soon as we turned the ball over. It wasn't straight down the middle either, it was run and overlap handball in waves.

Our usual kryptonite, our midfield can't handle teams that run hard both ways.

We're lucky that they turned it over so often, when they had to kick it.

This is how they beat the Magpies earlier in the season. We were a bit fortunate in that Wanganeen-Milera wasn't playing because he provides that run and attack you mention. Saints haven't got the balance right between their dour defensive footy and their free running attack of Hill, Henry, Wanganeen-Milera and co.

 

[MSB ROYS]

This is how they beat the Magpies earlier in the season. We were a bit fortunate in that Wanganeen-Milera wasn't playing because he provides that run and attack you mention. Saints haven't got the balance right between their dour defensive footy and their free running attack of Hill, Henry, Wanganeen-Milera and co.

They are still in the "Learnings" phase.

 

[buttermuffs]

Yep that’s why I wrote this line in the post your replied to.

“We would need Port to kick 104 points on the weekend to fall any further than 4th this week.”

To allow for those teams that have played an extra game.

You’re right, my bad.

 

[Elixuh]

Lol look at Essendon

 

[buttermuffs]

Lol look at Essendon

Unsurprisingly, our worst stats relate to our poor transition defence.

 

[Tom14]

If everything had gone according to expected score we'd be #1 in points for in #2 in points against.

 

[Nunez]

On par with last year now. Swans ahead in more but have dropped off in a big way as teams have learned how to play their style. Going to be interesting to see if they find a plan B. 9th in the comp for time in front in the last 6 weeks, so not a one or two week thing.

 

[Grasshopper17]

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On par with last year now. Swans ahead in more but have dropped off in a big way as teams have learned how to play their style. Going to be interesting to see if they find a plan B. 9th in the comp for time in front in the last 6 weeks, so not a one or two week thing.

I too took a snapshot of this. Got the other ones too for comparison:



I guess it just goes to show you can use the data to tell you anything you want. If you want to listen to Hoyney, he will tell you our defensive profile is awful and needs work if we are contend. Whereas these stats makes it look like we are in pretty good shape.

The trick is in the sample size: Joey is using the full season whereas Hoyney is going off the last 6 weeks.

Pick your poison.