Review Season 2025 a mixed bag

[PCORF]

You won’t have 4 double ups against all four top teams. It will be a maximum of 3 with minimum of 2.

Guarantee that Collingwood will be one of them, mind you if Elliot and Milochek don’t re-sign with Collingwood then they will be more than beatable in 2026.

Next year's top 4 might be Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn and either Brisbane/Collingwood/Adelaide/Fremantle/GWS.

Of course Elliot and Mihocek are back next year.

 

[kirky]

I reckon we'll play Hawthorn in gather round, 95% confident it happens.

Double up against Port, Fremantle, Giants, Suns (away game in Darwin), Geelong, Brisbane, Sydney, Hawthorn (AO Gather round and in Tassie again)

Collingwood at AO

One away game vs North, one away game vs West Coast, one away game vs Carlton. Away game vs Melbourne in Alice Springs.

You’ve quoted 8 double ups - there are only 6 double ups per season. We won’t have 5 double ups vs non-Vic sides.

 

[Geoffa32]

Disappointing we didn't win a Final. Or even a quarter of Footy in September.

Really needed to play GC in that first Final. A cheap win to reward the guys for the season. We would have belted them.

The season was a good one though.

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

I do find it a bit confusing that the prevailing narrative in the media is that our season was a failure, but the Suns were a success. Sure, the Suns won a final and well done to them, but they also choked a top 4 spot by losing to half a Port team in round 23. Does the media just forget this stuff once finals start?

Adelaide broke a heap of long standing poor records against teams like Sydney, Collingwood, Hawthorn and at grounds like the MCG, yet we failed? Of course not winning a quarter in finals is disappointing, but it's still our highest winning season in club history (including finals).

I've never understood why in the AFL finishing 1st on the ladder after 23 rounds is thrown in the bin if you then fail over a 2-3 week period in finals; it's a lot harder to be up for 6 months against 17 different teams than it is for 1 month. Conference championships are celebrated in the NFL and finishing top over in European football is considered the pinnacle.

 

[Slim258]

I do find it a bit confusing that the prevailing narrative in the media is that our season was a failure, but the Suns were a success. Sure, the Suns won a final and well done to them, but they also choked a top 4 spot by losing to half a Port team in round 23. Does the media just forget this stuff once finals start?

Adelaide broke a heap of long standing poor records against teams like Sydney, Collingwood, Hawthorn and at grounds like the MCG, yet we failed? Of course not winning a quarter in finals is disappointing, but it's still our highest winning season in club history (including finals).

I've never understood why in the AFL finishing 1st on the ladder after 23 rounds is thrown in the bin if you then fail over a 2-3 week period in finals; it's a lot harder to be up for 6 months against 17 different teams than it is for 1 month. Conference championships are celebrated in the NFL and finishing top over in European football is considered the pinnacle.

It's simple, we are a big independent club outside of Victoria, therefore a villain and a threat and we aren't the AFL's love child. so whatever we do will come with a line of negativity.

 

[Golumless]

It's an 8/10 year in my book factoring in where we were at previously. Was on track for a 9/10 if we got to the preliminary, but we stumbled at that hurdle. Unfortunately, we decided to copy that part of the Brisbane rebuild.

Kids mostly took over, we won a lot of minor round games, Thilthorpe put up ~60 goals and our defense took some significant steps were all big positives. Curtin having a month that he did as well also, but one has to wonder if him fading was a catalyst to us fading - though that also bodes well for Dan's future. Some negatives popped up near the end, for example, the utterly stupid and avoidable suspension to Rankine and that we finally ran out of luck with our stoppage game but another preseason in the list (alongside a good acquisition or two) could rectify that.

 

[kulak]

I haven't been following this forum so I'm not sure how well my opinion here lines up with the consensus:

Coming into the finals, I thought we were probably about in the 5-8 range. I thought we didn't deserve to be minor premier on the quality of our football, not at all. We struggled against the good teams all year, falling over the line due to poor finishing by our opponents multiple times.

Then we lost Rankine for the finals, and with him out I think we are clearly not a top 8 quality side, the Dogs for example much better than us. Once that happened I was 95 percent confident that we would go out in straight sets, and that it wouldn't be close. I didn't see it as a finals choke or underperformance at all. Just a team who didn't deserve to be there.

In terms of coaching, obviously Nicks played a slow kicking down the line style. I thought that was correct and appropriate for our list.

• We have very little run and pressure. If we still had DMac he might still be getting a game. Our wingmen are average, our forward "pressure" comes from plodding 29 year olds. Our defence is great going forwards, but easily exposed one-on-one defensively. If we try to play a running game we get blown out.
• Our centre square is clearly the worst of the finals teams, and lacks any competitive advantage - ability to win contests, skill, pace. O'Brien is mediocre, Berry is hopeless with ball in hand, Soligo doesn't have the physical presence to impose himself, and Dawson would be better suited as a receiver than a first-possession player. It's a really bad centre square for a supposed premiership contender.
• What we do have is good contested marking across the ground, very good. We were +3.2 contested mark differential across the year, Geelong were next on +2.6, then Hawthorn on +2.0.
• There's only one gameplan which fits those capabilities, which is the one that Nicks went with. Smart man!

It was great to see Thilthorpe's continued development into one of the best key forwards in the game. Curtin had a fantastic second year. Rachelle was injured too much to say. Draper showed some good signs, also his kicking was terrible, but maybe he was just getting up to speed and will be fine next year.

Overall I thought good signs from the players and coaching group, and I left the year more positive than I went in. Even though for now I still think the list overall is unbalanced and don't see a path to beating the best teams in finals.

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

Overall I thought good signs from the players and coaching group, and I left the year more positive than I went in. Even though for now I still think the list overall is unbalanced and don't see a path to beating the best teams in finals.

Are we better placed than 12 months ago? Apparently not, according to the usual frequent flyers on this Board.

Prior to the 2025 season we were forecast to finish equal 9th/10th according to Sportsbet. I am an optimist and predicted we would finish 6th although this was based on 14 wins which wouldn’t have been enough to make the Eight.

After our deplorable finals performance and the great Brisbane Grand Final, the odds for 2026 have been released;
Brisbane $5.00
Hawthorn $7.00
Geelong and Adelaide $9.00

Yes, equal third favourite above Collingwood, GWS, Fremantle, Bulldogs and Gold Coast.

There must be many delusional punters out there. Surely everyone who follows the AFL knows;

• Nicksy is shit
• All our coaches are shit
• Our game plan is shit
• Our players are shit

In fact everything and everybody connected with the Adelaide Football Club are shit .

 

[GreyCrow]

After our deplorable finals performance and the great Brisbane Grand Final, the odds for 2026 have been released;
Brisbane $5.00
Hawthorn $7.00
Geelong and Adelaide $9.00

Yes, equal third favourite above Collingwood, GWS, Fremantle, Bulldogs and Gold Coast.

There must be many delusional punters out there. Surely everyone who follows the AFL knows;

You do realise the odds have been framed by the sports market and not the people

Post this in February

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

You do realise the odds have been framed by the sports market and not the people

Post this in February

You do realise how betting agencies work?

Naturally not a single person would bet on the Crows winning the flag in 2026 (I wouldn’t). The incompetent betting agencies have provided attractive odds for Collingwood, Fremantle, Bulldogs etc. so a flood of money will come in for these teams. As a result our odds will blow out and all the other teams will become less attractive.

Betting agencies are designed to make money and are very good at it. The current odds are their best prediction of 2026 at this stage.

The odds will change following the trade/draft period, the release of the fixtures and team’s preseason form. Its been like Christmas the last three weeks for the usual suspects on this Board. Note that that I said prior to the finals that we were definitely not the best team in the finals. I believed Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood (and possibly Hawthorn and Fremantle) were capable of playing better footy than our best footy. Straight sets at home was very disappointing but hardly surprising.

My point is that the opinions expressed by the frequent flyers on this Board does not reflect the general views of the AFL community.

Where do you predict we will finish at the end of 2026, my guess is 4th but things could change a bit if the Godfather (Roo) makes Tracc an offer he can’t refuse.

 

[GreyCrow]

You do realise how betting agencies work?

Yes which is why I corrected you

Betting agencies are designed to make money and are very good at it. The current odds are their best prediction of 2026 at this stage.

Which is exactly what I said

The odds will change following the trade/draft period, the release of the fixtures and team’s preseason form.

Again which is exactly what I said

My point is that the opinions expressed by the frequent flyers on this Board does not reflect the general views of the AFL community.

And thats fine but you went at it incorrectly

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

Yes which is why I corrected you

Which is exactly what I said

Again which is exactly what I said

And thats fine but you went at it incorrectly

Please explain to me why the betting agencies have the Crows as equal third favourites? The odds change based on the weight of money bet on every option and it is up the the betting agency to make sure they make money regardless of which team wins the flag.

Are the short odds for the Crows designs to ensure there is not a flood of money bet on them which would make the betting agency vulnerable?

Ignoring the usual Trumpian conspiracy theories, we are equal third favourites because that is about where we sit in the pecking order 51 weeks before the Grand Final.

So……..what position do you predict we will finish (post finals) in 2026?

 

[GreyCrow]

Please explain to me why the betting agencies have the Crows as equal third favourites?

Because of our finish.

So……..what position do you predict we will finish (post finals) in 2026?

I will look at the draw and assess our chances then

I will also see what coaches depart or dont depart , what trades we get in etc

But by all means if you have a crystal ball then let us know your thoughts

Post in the next seasons thread

Prediction - Ladder Prediction 2025

My rose coloured glasses have come out to play: :p 1. Brisbane 2. Sydney 3. Adelaide 4. Collingwood 5. Giants 6. Geelong 7. Hawthorn 8. Melbourne 9. Carlton 10. Freo 11. Bulldogs 12. Suns 13. Port 14. Essendon 15. St Kilda 16. Eagles 17. North 18. Tigers I had Sydney and Melbourne too...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Velvet George]

I haven't been following this forum so I'm not sure how well my opinion here lines up with the consensus:

Coming into the finals, I thought we were probably about in the 5-8 range. I thought we didn't deserve to be minor premier on the quality of our football, not at all. We struggled against the good teams all year, falling over the line due to poor finishing by our opponents multiple times.

Then we lost Rankine for the finals, and with him out I think we are clearly not a top 8 quality side, the Dogs for example much better than us. Once that happened I was 95 percent confident that we would go out in straight sets, and that it wouldn't be close. I didn't see it as a finals choke or underperformance at all. Just a team who didn't deserve to be there.

In terms of coaching, obviously Nicks played a slow kicking down the line style. I thought that was correct and appropriate for our list.

• We have very little run and pressure. If we still had DMac he might still be getting a game. Our wingmen are average, our forward "pressure" comes from plodding 29 year olds. Our defence is great going forwards, but easily exposed one-on-one defensively. If we try to play a running game we get blown out.
• Our centre square is clearly the worst of the finals teams, and lacks any competitive advantage - ability to win contests, skill, pace. O'Brien is mediocre, Berry is hopeless with ball in hand, Soligo doesn't have the physical presence to impose himself, and Dawson would be better suited as a receiver than a first-possession player. It's a really bad centre square for a supposed premiership contender.
• What we do have is good contested marking across the ground, very good. We were +3.2 contested mark differential across the year, Geelong were next on +2.6, then Hawthorn on +2.0.
• There's only one gameplan which fits those capabilities, which is the one that Nicks went with. Smart man!

It was great to see Thilthorpe's continued development into one of the best key forwards in the game. Curtin had a fantastic second year. Rachelle was injured too much to say. Draper showed some good signs, also his kicking was terrible, but maybe he was just getting up to speed and will be fine next year.

Overall I thought good signs from the players and coaching group, and I left the year more positive than I went in. Even though for now I still think the list overall is unbalanced and don't see a path to beating the best teams in finals.

These teams that we struggled to beat, we won quarters against right? We didn’t ****ing win one.

This “right” gameplan, is that the one that led to Moore taking the record for intercept marks in a final?

Lack of run? Has that got anything to do with our gameplan or selection? Maybe if we didn’t select 9 defenders!!

The mental gymnastics to defend our coaches is astounding.

The number of errors in the finals and you didn’t list one, great review.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Disappointing we didn't win a Final. Or even a quarter of Footy in September.

Really needed to play GC in that first Final. A cheap win to reward the guys for the season. We would have belted them.

The season was a good one though.

Just because we belted them in the H&A season doesn't mean we would've done the same in the finals.

Given the way we played, I doubt we would've won had we played them.

 

[Crow_Magnon]

For me, I was pleasantly surprised at how many games we managed to win after poor starts throughout the year, and often against good sides. I did have a foreboding sense that it was all going too well, however, and that proved to be the case, even before the Rankine incident - where I thought we'd struggled badly against WC and North. I would like to see Van Berlo given his marching orders, as this is the main area of our game where we struggle. The likes of Berry, and even Peatling in the finals were often trailing their opponents (noted this often throughout the year also), and I felt that this is not necessarily a player issue, but more structural / coaching. It was our Achilles heel, and we were on the back foot when it counted. The other factor with the finals was having played the same opponents in the previous few weeks, which gave them a really good look at where our strengths were, and they were able to adjust much better (similar with Geelong and Brisbane).

Our depth is an issue as well - oh to be like Brissy and have something like 8 top tier players unavailable for the Granny, and still blow away a very good opponent. When forced to bring in Dowling for instance, it became apparent that he's not quite AFL standard. Bond, however, is one that has potential, but is another half-back type, of which we seem to have a plethora of. Need to get Charlie Edwards more midfield time also.

I like that we're targetting Ah Chee, and potentially George Stevens from Geelong (his game against Richmond was excellent earlier in the year - small sample size I know, but he does have some weapons). I don't think we can afford to lose Seymour, as I think he's better than Muzz, who I'd push forward - assuming Tex does the right thing and retires. A fit and firing Petracca would be nice, but I can't see us having enough draft capital / salary cap to fit him in.

 

[Scorpus]

To me this season is the perfect example of how expectations rightfully change based on the circumstances

Finishing 5th after last year would obviously have been seen as a win at the start of the season given we finished bottom 4 last year.

But the implication in that being a success would have been us making finals and (to finish 5th) winning an elimination final. No real shame going from bottom 4, to making 5-8 on the ladder, winning a final and going down to a top 4 side in the semi

But as soon as we finished 1st, expectations rightfully changed. Most wins ever in a H&A season, incredible record at home, low losing margins. That's a legitimate starting point for a flag run

To then lose in straight sets without winning a single quarter in embarrassing fashion is hugely disappointing, even though our overall finishing position of 5th would have been seen as a success prior to the season. Context is massively important in how we went.

We might go on to better things next year, but there's no doubt we blew a great opportunity this year without firing a shot. And the club can't make amends for that until the finals next year so it's an incredibly long wait to see whether we've improved, because basically H&A wins will be meaningless in 2026.

 

[Geoffa32]

Just because we belted them in the H&A season doesn't mean we would've done the same in the finals.

Given the way we played, I doubt we would've won had we played them.

We would have beaten them.

The Freo v GC game was two ordinary teams.

We would have feasted on them.


The two clear best teams in the comp played in the GF though. We are clearly behind those two (and Hawthorn/Collingwood), despite finishing top.

 

[Scorpus]

We would have beaten them.

The Freo v GC game was two ordinary teams.

We would have feasted on them.


The two clear best teams in the comp played in the GF though. We are clearly behind those two (and Hawthorn/Collingwood), despite finishing top.

We weren't clearly behind those teams in the H&A season. That's revisionism purely based on how we went in finals.

We were every bit as good as the eventual top 4 right up to finals (maybe a few weeks before in the West Coast match at worst)

 

[Geoffa32]

We weren't clearly behind those teams in the H&A season. That's revisionism purely based on how we went in finals.

We were every bit as good as the eventual top 4 right up to finals (maybe a few weeks before in the West Coast match at worst)

True, but Finals are different.

Our club probably went in with the view that Finals are the same as H&A.

They aren't.

 

[Scorpus]

True, but Finals are different.

Our club probably went in with the view that Finals are the same as H&A.

They aren't.

I see it differently

I reckon the club knew finals are different and that you need to play hard contested footy to win them, so we purposefully changed our gameplan to a more contested brand.

We trialled it first in the West Coast match and the remaining games, then doubled down in finals

The problem is this alternate contested brand was absolute dogshit and destroyed the strength that got us wins throughout the year.

We tried to tweak it a bit in the Hawthorn match by forcing a lot more switches early, but the damage was already done. The style we switched to had already robbed the playing group of confidence and that was compounded by the Rankine suspension

 

[Geoffa32]

I see it differently

I reckon the club knew finals are different and that you need to play hard contested footy to win them, so we purposefully changed our gameplan to a more contested brand.

We trialled it first in the West Coast match and the remaining games, then doubled down in finals

The problem is this alternate contested brand was absolute dogshit and destroyed the strength that got us wins throughout the year.

We tried to tweak it a bit in the Hawthorn match by forcing a lot more switches early, but the damage was already done. The style we switched to had already robbed the playing group of confidence and that was compounded by the Rankine suspension

Yeah I can see that.

I reckon we played better against Collingwood though.

Still think had Thilthorpe kicked that open goal instead of handballing we probably win.

We had momentum then and such a goal would have been a big lift on field and the crowd.


Thilthorpe misses the handball (a dumb decision anyway), the boys drop their head. Then the dreaded Collingwooood chant starts. Game over.


Hawthorn game, we were never in it.

 

[Geoffa32]

Both Finals we came up against teams with real Finals experience.

Collingwood recently winning a flag. Hawthorn still some Premiership players and a coach who understands Finals.


Just hope we build on it for 26/27.

 

[AFC979810]

I've never understood why in the AFL finishing 1st on the ladder after 23 rounds is thrown in the bin if you then fail over a 2-3 week period in finals; it's a lot harder to be up for 6 months against 17 different teams than it is for 1 month. Conference championships are celebrated in the NFL and

How can you not understand that?

A conference championship in the NFL is the equivalent of making the grand final. Maybe you meant winning the division in the NFL? The only reason that is coveted is that winning your division is an automatic playoff spot.

finishing top over in European football is considered the pinnacle.

Thats because they don't have finals or playoffs.

 

[AFC979810]

Gotta be happy with the season overall.

Made the finals. Gave our youngsters a taste of what September action is like.

Need to build on it for 2026.