Analysis Season 2025/6 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Elixuh]

Not lions specific but genuinely great stuff this from Simmo:

I could genuinely watch games from the behind the goals vision. Maybe a small screen insert with the close up in the bottom right.

Unrelated, but I saw the Fox commentators were giving Kingy grief the other night because he brought his HP laptop to the grand final parade.

 

[dlanod]

Unrelated, but I saw the Fox commentators were giving Kingy grief the other night because he brought his HP laptop to the grand final parade.

He was pulling it out whenever someone lingered too long in earshot to explain how we couldn't win with Joe and Eric.

 

[Tom14]

Good wrap up of analysis from a variety of independent spots - breath of fresh air compared to the 20th panel show this week featuring Kane Cornes discussing Harley Reid.

https://thisweekinfootball.great-site.net/?p=1

 

[thedaz]

Hi all. Me again - I've already posted some player ratings from the Cats match which you can catch here : https://roar-metrics.ghost.io/dire-start-daring-finish-lions-break-the-cats-again/

 

[Tom14]

 

[Nunez]

Chris Scott inspired Fagan to invest in a plan B. :')

 

[Grasshopper17]

No new teams into the seeds this week, but all 4 teams took a bit of a hit on their rating this week.

#1 Hawthorn (1061) - Beating an ordinary Carlton by only 20 points felt a bit "meh", and a 51 point slide in their rating reflects this.

#2 Geelong (812) - Their loss to the Saints, who are still (slightly) in the red sees them slide 131 points.

#3 Brisbane (750) - However our slide is more significant (194 points), with our 19 point win being far lower than expected.

#4 Western Bulldogs (596) - Collingwood are in the positive so even though the Bulldogs were expected to win, only losing by a goal only sees their rating fall by 52.

Geelong's slightly higher rating means I have them as a 2 point favourite over us this Saturday.

Broadly speaking a pretty underwhelming weekend for the four seeds, but nobody else performed well enough to take their place!

#1 Hawthorn (1055) - A slight underperformance by the Hawks in their 12 point win against the Giants.

#2 Brisbane (792) - The only team of the 4 to lift their rating this week.

#3 Geelong (781) - The Lions gaining points means Geelong lose points on the flipside.

#4 Western Bulldogs (561) - only beating Carlton by 8 points is also frowned upon, so they also lose a few points.

Biggest movers and shakers for the round were Gold Coast who gained 189 points with their win over Melbourne, and St Kilda who gained 161 points with their win over Richmond.

This week we play Richmond, who are now in a similar position to West Coast a fortnight ago: #18 rank with a rating of -1525. This equates to an expected win for our lads of 64 points this Saturday, which the West Coast game showed last weekend is fraught with danger!

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

I see Squiggle has the Suns finishing second, Lions 5th, and the Suns beating us by a point in a semi final at the Gabba

 

[Grasshopper17]

I see Squiggle has the Suns finishing second, Lions 5th, and the Suns beating us by a point in a semi final at the Gabba

The week 1 matchups in that model don't actually align with the ladder positions.

 

[MSB ROYS]

I see Squiggle has the Suns finishing second, Lions 5th, and the Suns beating us by a point in a semi final at the Gabba

That would suck.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

It'd put some spice into the next few Q-clashes

 

[MSB ROYS]

Thought that this was interesting:

 

[KissKiss]

Very interesting to hear both about our speed of play and how teams have been trying to copy it

 

[Elixuh]

Thought that this was interesting:

Riley Thilthorpe the best player in the league over the past 10 games.

 

[Tom14]

Riley Thilthorpe the best player in the league over the past 10 games.

I thought of you when Hoyney went with that one.

 

[Tom14]

Great analysis from Simmo again - the best bit isn't regarding us trying to use a spare to protect a lead, its actually starting from 1:57 where he goes through how we use short 45 kicks, selfless running from forwards to widen and lengthen the oppositions defence, then explode forward:



Key bit of jargon - small bubble vs big bubble. Cats try to cut off the 45 kick with a spare about 30m away from Lachie on the logo:




Lachie hits a shorter 45 kick to motty, and then all our players immediately start sprinting wide and forward to create space:



One handball over the top to Will, and we've created a 'big bubble', with a wide open corridor to run and carry into a wide open forward 50:




This ends in a Noah shot that misses from 52, but with the space created Noah misses Cal who has acres of green grass to lead into - should have been an easy hit up lead:



This is how despite us preferring uncontested marks, we are the quickest team for ball movement - because we manipulate space and create great opportunities to move the ball forward.

Gotta recognise how well drilled the team is and how hard the players work to create space on offense with lots of unrewarded running.

There was some great stuff after the prelim last year on how we kept our forwards really far away from the ball, close to goal to create vertical space, which is a risk on turnover but generates chances against high quality opposition defences that want to clog up the ground.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Great analysis from Simmo again - the best bit isn't regarding us trying to use a spare to protect a lead, its actually starting from 1:57 where he goes through how we use short 45 kicks, selfless running from forwards to widen and lengthen the oppositions defence, then explode forward:



Key bit of jargon - small bubble vs big bubble. Cats try to cut off the 45 kick with a spare about 30m away from Lachie on the logo:

View attachment 2270076


Lachie hits a shorter 45 kick to motty, and then all our players immediately start sprinting wide and forward to create space:

View attachment 2270078

One handball over the top to Will, and we've created a 'big bubble', with a wide open corridor to run and carry into a wide open forward 50:

View attachment 2270079


This ends in a Noah shot that misses from 52, but with the space created Noah misses Cal who has acres of green grass to lead into - should have been an easy hit up lead:

View attachment 2270080

This is how despite us preferring uncontested marks, we are the quickest team for ball movement - because we manipulate space and create great opportunities to move the ball forward.

Gotta recognise how well drilled the team is and how hard the players work to create space on offense with lots of unrewarded running.

There was some great stuff after the prelim last year on how we kept our forwards really far away from the ball, close to goal to create vertical space, which is a risk on turnover but generates chances against high quality opposition defences that want to clog up the ground.

Great stuff with your screen shots!

Just on the Ah Chee stuff, Geelong actually did that really nicely. That's what you've got to do if you realise that your opponent is the spare: get dangerous. Nobody is manning you up so get into dangerous spots to receive the ball, and Clark has a couple of involvements there obviously in what results in a goal. Great vision also by whoever kicked it to him to have the presence of mind late in the game to change lanes and keep us off balance defensively.

What Ah Chee needed to do there was initiate a hand over: instruct a team mate to drop back and cover his man. In all likelihood that then generates a chain reaction, where multiple players are switching opponents, until in an ideal scenario, Geelong still has an unmarked opponent of course, but they're in a goalkeeper position - right at the back of the play, and no attacking threat whatsoever.

You'd like to think we broke that down a bit on Monday. Maybe Ah Chee simply dropped back without vocalising to anyone that his man needed to be covered. Maybe Cal called out but wasn't specific, "ie someone needs to cover this guy". Maybe Cal was specific, but that guy either decided not to or was unable to get to Clark in time.

Ideally we'd have sorted that out before the centre bounce. ie We know Cal is going to start on the wing and then drop back. So we need a forward, say Charlie, to drop back and cover their winger. Then Charlie's opponent needs to be manned up. Maybe Eric can go to that guy. Ideally, sooner or later you want to be able to hand over to a big bloke, because its THEIR direct opponent who is most likely to be playing that goalkeeper role. That's another reason why having big blokes who are mobile is such an asset: they can play on smaller types for short periods of time. Hipwood yep, Morris probably, Day perhaps not so much.



On the ball movement clip, it's a world removed from where we were even as recently as 2022, when that kick from what I took to calling the "twilight zone" would have gone long and boring, down the line to a contest, and if it was the Prelim Final of that year it would have been picked off and come right back through us with interest.

But that's the lengthening (and widening) of the ground we discussed multiple times last year, and something which Joey highlighted late in the year with how Hawthorn were playing. I love it, it keeps oppositions off balance, and the way Simmo describes it, that first 45⁰ kick inside is the most important. It's not even all the way into the corridor necessarily, but importantly it opens up the possibility of attacking in multiple directions.

From there you can keep going into the corridor and beyond if you like, you might be able to zigzag back out to the wing on the same side you started (we did this a few times on Saturday night as well). That option is a bit more conservative because there will be a higher density of players on that side, so you have better coverage if there's a turnover. Or maybe that whole channel opens up and you can kick (or in this case, handball) straight over the man on the mark to a team mate, who ideally has options on either side ready to handball to, usually including the guy who kicked it to him (ie Zorko, McKenna types).

But it's that first kick back inside which opens everything up. If you can't get that done, you are indeed forced long down the line, and that's what teams like Adelaide have done really well against us in our recent meetings against them. After that it's actually the relatively straightforward matter of all the blokes in front of the ball having the discipline to "get out of the way", rather than going kick chasing for themselves. Drag their opponents out of the way with them, opening up gaps for others.

 

[thedaz]

Back! With some player ratings v the tigers

 

[thedaz]

Great analysis from Simmo again - the best bit isn't regarding us trying to use a spare to protect a lead, its actually starting from 1:57 where he goes through how we use short 45 kicks, selfless running from forwards to widen and lengthen the oppositions defence

I saw this on 360 as well and it is awesome content - the stuff I really love hearing about and the stuff you never hear about in other forms of footy media. I hope they keep Simmo on, while his coaching career at West Coast ended on a bit of a sour note, he's definitely got a bright future in media if he keeps up this insight.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Broadly speaking a pretty underwhelming weekend for the four seeds, but nobody else performed well enough to take their place!

#1 Hawthorn (1055) - A slight underperformance by the Hawks in their 12 point win against the Giants.

#2 Brisbane (792) - The only team of the 4 to lift their rating this week.

#3 Geelong (781) - The Lions gaining points means Geelong lose points on the flipside.

#4 Western Bulldogs (561) - only beating Carlton by 8 points is also frowned upon, so they also lose a few points.

Biggest movers and shakers for the round were Gold Coast who gained 189 points with their win over Melbourne, and St Kilda who gained 161 points with their win over Richmond.

This week we play Richmond, who are now in a similar position to West Coast a fortnight ago: #18 rank with a rating of -1525. This equates to an expected win for our lads of 64 points this Saturday, which the West Coast game showed last weekend is fraught with danger!

First change to the seedings for the season!

#1 Hawthorn (1059) - had the bye.

#2 Geelong (784) - basically had the bye. You know how well Melbourne are going when your 40 point win was basically "expected".

#3 Brisbane (663) - worst performing team of the round relative to expectations!

#4 Greater Western Sydney (604) - they finally break in after a pretty impressive start to the season, gaining 101 points in their flogging of West Coast.

The Bulldogs slip back to #6 on 452 rating points, after the model had them beating Freo by a couple of goals.

The biggest gains on the weekend were Richmond (+130) despite losing, Fremantle (+110) and the Giants as above.

The model has us beating the Dogs by 6 points this week.

 

[Tom14]

From Champion Data via Kingy's laptop:

The ball movement ladder


1. Gold Coast Suns (1st at moving it, 7th at stopping it)

2. GWS Giants (3rd at moving it, 4th at stopping it)

3. Brisbane Lions (6th at moving it, 2nd at stopping it)

4. Adelaide Crows (2nd at moving it, 9th at stopping it)

5. Collingwood (5th at moving it, 8th at stopping it)

6. Geelong (8th at moving it, 5th at stopping it)


7. Hawthorn (11th at moving it, 3rd at stopping it)

8. Sydney Swans (10th at moving it, 6th at stopping it)

9. Fremantle (9th at moving it, 10th at stopping it)

10. Carlton (17th at moving it, 1st at stopping it)

11. Western Buldogs (12th at moving it, 11th at stopping it)

12. Essendon (4th at moving it, 15th at stopping it)

13. Port Adelaide (7th at moving it, 14th at stopping it)

14. St Kilda (13th at moving it, 13th at stopping it)

15. Melbourne (16th at moving it, 12th at stopping it)

16. North Melbourne (14th at moving it, 16th at stopping it)

17. Richmond (15th at moving it, 17th at stopping it)

18. West Coast Eagles (18th at moving it, 18th at stopping it)

 

[KissKiss]

That Carlton differential!

Fine if you can stop the ball (it will help trying to get Weitering AA blazers) but wont do anything if you cant actually get the ball into the forward line

 

[Tom14]

Good stuff in this week's This Week In Footy:

Round 5 2025 – This Week In Football

www.hpnfooty.com

Fremantle are clearly the slowest team in the comp across all three zones leading into the forward 50m, closely followed by Collingwood. Essendon, Brisbane and Geelong like to keep the ball in motion. St Kilda, Richmond and West Coast appear to speed up as they move the ball up the ground, while the likes of Gold Coast and Carlton get slower.

 

[Nathan Barley]

From Champion Data via Kingy's laptop:

The ball movement ladder


1. Gold Coast Suns (1st at moving it, 7th at stopping it)

2. GWS Giants (3rd at moving it, 4th at stopping it)

3. Brisbane Lions (6th at moving it, 2nd at stopping it)

4. Adelaide Crows (2nd at moving it, 9th at stopping it)

5. Collingwood (5th at moving it, 8th at stopping it)

6. Geelong (8th at moving it, 5th at stopping it)


7. Hawthorn (11th at moving it, 3rd at stopping it)

8. Sydney Swans (10th at moving it, 6th at stopping it)

9. Fremantle (9th at moving it, 10th at stopping it)

10. Carlton (17th at moving it, 1st at stopping it)

11. Western Buldogs (12th at moving it, 11th at stopping it)

12. Essendon (4th at moving it, 15th at stopping it)

13. Port Adelaide (7th at moving it, 14th at stopping it)

14. St Kilda (13th at moving it, 13th at stopping it)

15. Melbourne (16th at moving it, 12th at stopping it)

16. North Melbourne (14th at moving it, 16th at stopping it)

17. Richmond (15th at moving it, 17th at stopping it)

18. West Coast Eagles (18th at moving it, 18th at stopping it)

Good signs given our slow start to the season

 

[Elixuh]

From Champion Data via Kingy's laptop:

The ball movement ladder


1. Gold Coast Suns (1st at moving it, 7th at stopping it)

2. GWS Giants (3rd at moving it, 4th at stopping it)

3. Brisbane Lions (6th at moving it, 2nd at stopping it)

4. Adelaide Crows (2nd at moving it, 9th at stopping it)

5. Collingwood (5th at moving it, 8th at stopping it)

6. Geelong (8th at moving it, 5th at stopping it)


7. Hawthorn (11th at moving it, 3rd at stopping it)

8. Sydney Swans (10th at moving it, 6th at stopping it)

9. Fremantle (9th at moving it, 10th at stopping it)

10. Carlton (17th at moving it, 1st at stopping it)

11. Western Buldogs (12th at moving it, 11th at stopping it)

12. Essendon (4th at moving it, 15th at stopping it)

13. Port Adelaide (7th at moving it, 14th at stopping it)

14. St Kilda (13th at moving it, 13th at stopping it)

15. Melbourne (16th at moving it, 12th at stopping it)

16. North Melbourne (14th at moving it, 16th at stopping it)

17. Richmond (15th at moving it, 17th at stopping it)

18. West Coast Eagles (18th at moving it, 18th at stopping it)

Given the gap with Carlton, if they improve their movement I wonder how much that’ll impact their stopping it stat. I assume the gap in the two are related.