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Analysis Season 2025 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

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That's pretty much inline with the premiership window. Hawthorn are a false flag, Suns should be more respected, Geelong will come good at the end of the season and Bulldogs and Collingwood are the two most dominant sides.

Frankly at this point all I want out of the season is a non-Collingwood flag. Shame the dogs will somehow miss top 4 by losing to west coast and lose in finals.
 
Frankly at this point all I want out of the season is a non-Collingwood flag. Shame the dogs will somehow miss top 4 by losing to west coast and lose in finals.
Collingwood are too defensive minded to win it, as they're outside of the premiership window too. Their defensive is absolutely elite, which is the reason why they are likely to finish 1st. But come finals time, they won't have enough scoring avenues when the intensity rises 10fold. I actually think Bulldogs, Geelong or Gold Coast are the most likely ones to win a flag. Which sounds crazy when you think about including GC, but they are good across all parts of the ground. Yes, they had a mare against us, but they can score at a blistering pace, and they've proven that they can absorb comebacks in the last few weeks as well. This is the gameplan that stacks up in finals! Bulldogs are similar as well.
 

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Collingwood are too defensive minded to win it, as they're outside of the premiership window too. Their defensive is absolutely elite, which is the reason why they are likely to finish 1st. But come finals time, they won't have enough scoring avenues when the intensity rises 10fold. I actually think Bulldogs, Geelong or Gold Coast are the most likely ones to win a flag. Which sounds crazy when you think about including GC, but they are good across all parts of the ground. Yes, they had a mare against us, but they can score at a blistering pace, and they've proven that they can absorb comebacks in the last few weeks as well. This is the gameplan that stacks up in finals! Bulldogs are similar as well.
Do tell us how Collingwood are "outside the premiership window"?
 
Do tell us how Collingwood are "outside the premiership window"?
They're elite in defence, but their scoring output is average. To be in the premiership window, you need to be elite in defence and scoring. Collingwood's biggest weakness is that they can't score high, and they can't score quickly. This will be a problem for them come finals time, as the heightened pressure will cause more defensive cracks, and if they are down by a considerable margin, they won't be able to find a way back. The way collingwood play is that they control the game, and they break you apart. If you crack through them before they get that chance, they will fall apart right away, like they did against GWS.
 
I think he meant the fox footy thing ranking teams but points for and against
Hmmmm I have collingwood #6 for points for. I had a couple of goes at it but possible I've mis-counted? Someone might have to double check my work 😬
 
btw, these data points only observe what we're seeing now, not what we will see in the future. Things like the fox premiership window can change as the season progresses. Likewise, the AFL simulated Wheelo can change as well. Nothing is final, and this only tells us what the season would look like if it ended today. For reference, the Wheelo was wrong about Carlton last season (overshot them massively) and undershot hawthorn and bulldogs. If teams adjust throughout the season, these data points quickly become irrelevant.
 
btw, these data points only observe what we're seeing now, not what we will see in the future. Things like the fox premiership window can change as the season progresses. Likewise, the AFL simulated Wheelo can change as well. Nothing is final, and these datas basically tell us what the season would look like if it ended today. For reference, the Wheelo was wrong about Carlton last season (overshot them massively) and undershot hawthorn and bulldogs. If teams adjust throughout the season, these data points quickly become irrelevant.
Carlton was never in the premiership window last year, due to their dicey defence. The window was onto them well before anyone else in the media. I think you're under selling collingwood considerably, unfortunately.
 
Carlton was never in the premiership window last year, due to their dicey defence. The window was onto them well before anyone else in the media. I think you're under selling collingwood considerably, unfortunately.
Carlton weren't, but they were projected second on the predicted AFL ladder. The premiership window is never wrong though, so if the finals happened today, i think the chances of collingwood winning would be insanely low. However, if they can improve their scoring, then that changes everything. Defensive minded teams have had a horrible history winning flags, that's why i can't trust collingwood. Despite how good they seem to be.
 
Carlton weren't, but they were projected second on the predicted AFL ladder. The premiership window is never wrong though, so if the finals happened today, i think the chances of collingwood winning would be insanely low. However, if they can improve their scoring, then that changes everything. Defensive minded teams have had a horrible history winning flags, that's why i can't trust collingwood. Despite how good they seem to be.
Collingwood are #6 for attack. 18 of the last 20 premiers have been top 6 in both attack and defence. That is the premiership window.

20 of the last 20 premiers have been top 6 in defence (ie 2 of them were not in the top 6 for attack).

I think you need to review where you're getting your info from.
 

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Collingwood are #6 for attack. 18 of the last 20 premiers have been top 6 in both attack and defence.

20 of the last 20 premiers have been top 6 in defence (ie 2 of them were not in the top 6 for attack).

I think you need to review where you're getting your info from.
And look at the teams who score more than Collingwood. Gold coast, geelong, bulldogs. Even hawthorn. And i said the best teams are elite in defence and attack. Being 6th in attack isn't elite. Even if their defence is stronger than Geelong, bulldogs and gold coast, those teams attack and defence are more balanced than what collingwood is right now. And my info is from the premiership window, which has collingwood outside of it. If you want to review those figures, go ahead and ask fox footy because they put them outside the window, not me.
 
And look at the teams who score more than Collingwood. Gold coast, geelong, bulldogs. Even hawthorn. And i said the best teams are elite in defence and attack. Being 6th in attack isn't elite. Even if their defence is stronger than Geelong, bulldogs and gold coast, those teams attack and defence are more balanced than what collingwood is right now. And my info is from the premiership window, which has collingwood outside of it. If you want to review those figures, go ahead and ask fox footy because they put them outside the window, not me.
What show was this? Cos they're wrong. They usually bring out the premiership window on Monday nights on the couch (or so I thought).
 
What show was this? Cos they're wrong. They usually bring out the premiership window on Monday nights on the couch (or so I thought).
they brought it out early this year, haha but they did show it on the couch



here you go
View attachment fox-footys-on-the-couch-premiership-window-is-back-for-v0-aw47b5kvrjxe1.webp

It's probably a bit outdated now given this was a few weeks ago, but you can see that collingwood are outside of it because of their attack, and brisbane are outside of it because of their defence (both teams are close though). But collingwood need to be better than 6th in attack if they want to get into the window, so they have to score more. I think an updated one would probably have the bulldogs in, considering how much they've changed in the last month
 
The Pies are very even across the field and are playing with the intent and effort you need to win finals. The query I have with them is that they have quite a few guys who are nearing the end and how they manage them to be fit and firing in September will be key.

I could see a younger, quicker team give them the runaround on the MCG in a big final. On the season so far we're not in the race with the best 3 teams despite our ladder position but the good thing is we can get a lot better ( I hope )
 
they brought it out early this year, haha but they did show it on the couch



here you go
View attachment 2318579

It's probably a bit outdated now given this was a few weeks ago, but you can see that collingwood are outside of it because of their attack, and brisbane are outside of it because of their defence (both teams are close though). But collingwood need to be better than 6th in attack if they want to get into the window, so they have to score more. I think an updated one would probably have the bulldogs in, considering how much they've changed in the last month

By my analysis the teams currently in the window are:

Collingwood: #6 in attack, #1 in defence
Western Bulldogs: #1 in attack, =#4 in defence
Hawthorn: #5 in attack, #3 in defence
Gold Coast: #2 in attack (after allowing for the fact they've played one game less), #6 in defence (I worked out the average for this and they're just inside the 6)

*Carlton #2 in defence
*GWS =#4 in defence

Those who remember my seedings last year will recall I also published individual attack and defence ratings, and that these ratings also took into account who your opponents had been across the season. So if you'd had an easy draw your numbers were degraded, and vice versa.

I'm not using this model for my seedings this year but I'm still running it in the background. According to this these are the teams who would be in the premiership window right now:

Collingwood: #4 in attack, #1 in defence
Western Bulldogs: #2 in attack, #5 in defence
Adelaide: #3 in attack, #6 in defence
Geelong: #1 in attack, #4 in defence

*GWS #2 in defence
*Carlton #3 in defence

So some different ratings there and interestingly some different teams as well. My old modelling rates Hawthorn as having had the easiest draw so far and Gold Coast the 4th easiest draw. So both are downgraded accordingly. On the flipside, Geelong has had the 2nd hardest draw so far so they are upgraded as a result, as are Adelaide who have had the 4th hardest draw.
 
Collingwood are #6 for attack. 18 of the last 20 premiers have been top 6 in both attack and defence. That is the premiership window.

20 of the last 20 premiers have been top 6 in defence (ie 2 of them were not in the top 6 for attack).

I think you need to review where you're getting your info from.
Nothing like good fact checkin! :)
 

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"At the lower end of the goalkicking rankings, Brisbane premiership forward Charlie Cameron is enduring a form slump, converting just eight of his 29 shots on goal this year, good for 27.6%. Cameron has recorded 15 behinds, making up more than half of his shots on goal, with a further six failing to register a score."

"Of the top 106 players for shots on goal, Cameron is only joined by Collingwood ace Nick Daicos in being below the 30% mark, with the Magpies midfielder kicking five goals and nine behinds from 17 shots at goal, an accuracy rating of 29.4%."

 
Charlie is the worst kick in the comp going for goal sitting at 27.6%... YIKES, Nick Daicos 2nd worst at 29.4%
Dunno where to go with Charlie. I thought he sorted out his kicking for goal last year when he got more of a routine going bar being confused as to when to go round the corner (why bother ? ) or not.

If you're a small forward not getting a heap of it with those numbers it needs to be fixed. Surely Stu can get hold of him and work out a set routine . Like all good shots for goal have. Or maybe he's tried . Charlie seems to spray his snaps now as well.

It's hard to fathom how a champ with his CV and a flag under his belt can be so lacking in confidence every time he takes a shot. A good start would be to be not so hard on himself and relax .It's pitiful watching him line up , you know where it's going and he seems to as well.
 
Dunno where to go with Charlie. I thought he sorted out his kicking for goal last year when he got more of a routine going bar being confused as to when to go round the corner (why bother ? ) or not.

If you're a small forward not getting a heap of it with those numbers it needs to be fixed. Surely Stu can get hold of him and work out a set routine . Like all good shots for goal have. Or maybe he's tried . Charlie seems to spray his snaps now as well.

It's hard to fathom how a champ with his CV and a flag under his belt can be so lacking in confidence every time he takes a shot. A good start would be to be not so hard on himself and relax .It's pitiful watching him line up , you know where it's going and he seems to as well.
I might be wrong but I am pretty sure he kicked his first 2 set shots this year.
But things went south very quickly for there.
 
I might be wrong but I am pretty sure he kicked his first 2 set shots this year.
But things went south very quickly for there.
You're right . I really feel for him. Just watching him line up there's no purpose ,he's twirling the ball around , just having a ping .On shots he should be swallowing. Someone needs to sit him down and give him a set strategy . The worst thing he ever did was bring the bananas into his repertoire because he often uses it when there's no hope. He sometimes misses them by metres.

Fix that and it will really help the team.
 

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Analysis Season 2025 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

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