Analysis Season 2025 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Section 5]

I have a feeling Keidean Coleman was/is our chief exponent of this. Zorko tends to target shorter/quicker options when attempting to access the corridor.

Zorko, McCluggage and quite a few others took that option regularly.
Zorko messes a few up but takes more chances than others so errors do occur and can be costly.
He is an old head so missing the occasional one up does not stop him trying again soon after.
The vast majority of the kicks were around the 20 to under 30-meter mark. The longer the kick the bigger the risk.
But once the target is hit that opens up a lot of avenues forward from that point.

Opposition coaches were/are aware of this and are adjusting their defense so probably not as many options opening up so far this year.

On Coleman he only played 1 game in 2024 so not the reason we were quite good at this last year.

 

[Tom14]

Zorko, McCluggage and quite a few others took that option regularly.
Zorko messes a few up but takes more chances than others so errors do occur and can be costly.
He is an old head so missing the occasional one up does not stop him trying again soon after.
The vast majority of the kicks were around the 20 to under 30-meter mark. The longer the kick the bigger the risk.
But once the target is hit that opens up a lot of avenues forward from that point.

Opposition coaches were/are aware of this and are adjusting their defense so probably not as many options opening up so far this year.

On Coleman he only played 1 game in 2024 so not the reason we were quite good at this last year.

This is correct but I think he would help enormously in addressing that issue this year.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Interesting we’re retaining the ball well from clearances but not scoring from them as well as usual.

Could come back to that dimwits article about us not winning contests in the forwardline or maybe we’re not getting the ball to the better users for that last kick

 

[Nunez]

Interesting we’re retaining the ball well from clearances but not scoring from them as well as usual.

Could come back to that dimwits article about us not winning contests in the forwardline or maybe we’re not getting the ball to the better users for that last kick

Kiddy back in + releasing Fletcher back to the wing will help a lot in that final kick inside 50.

 

[Tom14]

Interesting we’re retaining the ball well from clearances but not scoring from them as well as usual.

Could come back to that dimwits article about us not winning contests in the forwardline or maybe we’re not getting the ball to the better users for that last kick

That was obviously one of the big issues early last year that corrected itself. I do think we'll have some positive regression with F50 groundballs but better delivery/method would help.

Feels like we are struggling to find the hit up kick to 55-65m out which we did regularly late last year, leading to deeper entries.

 

[On the quiet]

Hrm, perhaps the player ratings produced by the AFL are cooked. While I've published them, not sure I endorse them

View attachment 2305523

I've got a bit more on my blog if you're interested.

yep 'thedaz', little recognition for those who did their roles exceptionally well, for example, Dunkley and Payne, and to a lesser extend Eric, and Cam who was very physical with his tackling. Harris was marking Jed Walter a talented 19 year old 20 gamer and scored 15.1 as opposed to Payne who was marking the 100 gamer Coleman medal leader, and received a rating of 7.0. Noah was also good, especially in the first half and a rating of 0.2, bloody joke. Thank goodness clubs would pay little attention to these, and other limited stats; such as uncontested possessions and cheap disposals. Just look at the last 3 minutes against the Suns when winding down the clock. I suspect All Australian selectors have a peak at some of these stats, how else can you explain McGovern's selection over Andrews last year.

 

[M Malice]

Since Fagan stared Eric down at half time a few weeks ago he has been very good, showing consistent aggression now, keep it going Eel.

 

[thedaz]

I suspect All Australian selectors have a peak at some of these stats, how else can you explain McGovern's selection over Andrews last year.

I actually thought McGovern's selection was probably deserved last year, but I think Weitering was lucky to get a jacket over Andrews.

 

[On the quiet]

I actually thought McGovern's selection was probably deserved last year, but I think Weitering was lucky to get a jacket over Andrews.

I liked seeing a deep lockdown defender named in the All Australian Team in their correct position. Arguably Andrews and McGovern more intercepting types. True than can both play lock down, but not as effective as a couple of other players.

 

[Elixuh]

I’ll be disturbed to see how low we have dropped on Grasshoppers rankings. Could be biblical.

 

[martinson]

We might look a bit better when North win a few games.

They're not too far off and will rue another one coughed up today.

 

[dlanod]

I’ll be disturbed to see how low we have dropped on Grasshoppers rankings. Could be biblical.

We might still be out of the premiership Fox box!

 

[MSB ROYS]

We might still be out of the premiership Fox box!

I want to win the GF from outside of that box for the FoxFooty melts.

 

[dlanod]

I want to win the GF from outside of that box for the FoxFooty melts.

They'll just increase the size of the box next season and never comment on it.

 

[ZoBlitz]

They'll just increase the size of the box next season and never comment on it.

Add the Wildcard box section.

 

[M Malice]

I want to win the GF from outside of that box for the FoxFooty melts.

RIP David King.

 

[Grasshopper17]

We might still be out of the premiership Fox box!

By my rough count we're #7 in attack and #7 in defence. So yes.

 

[M Malice]

Daniel Hoyne from champion data aired his top 10 kicks in the competition on SEN today, I like the way they decide these statistics, it is not pure disposal efficiency, they take into account difficulty of the kick.

1- Bailey Dale

31

Bailey Dale

Age

29

Ht

188cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

1.6

4star

MG

117.4

2star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.1

2star

HB

3.9

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.7

3star

MG

117.4

2star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.0

4star

2- Max Holmes
3- Karl Amon

10

Karl Amon

Age

30

Ht

181cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.8

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

294.5

4star

D

21.0

5star

K

15.0

5star

HB

6.0

3star

M

6.0

5star

T

2.0

3star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

146.8

3star

4- Jaspa Fletcher
5- Lachie Ash
6- Mason Redman

27

Mason Redman

Age

28

Ht

187cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.2

4star

K

10.1

4star

HB

5.1

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.7

4star

MG

262.0

4star

D

12.0

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.2

3star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.8

3star

MG

210.3

3star

D

12.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.4

4star

MG

144.2

3star

7- Riley Bice
8- Zac Guthrie
9- Luke Ryan
10- Massimo D'ambrosio

Mentioned that in 2025 footy elite disposal is where the game is at as far as being a great metric as to who wins is concerned, also how deadly we would be with Keidean Coleman back in our defensive set up.

Zorko and Coleman out of the back and Fletcher out on the wing delivering lace out passes.. yum!

 

[Grasshopper17]

I need to update my seedings. By the way, this all started last year because Gerard and Kingy would do their seedings every week, and they would jump around so much week-to-week that they basically lost all meaning and Gerard's regular comeback was "if you don't like them, do your own". So I thought f**k it, I will.

Now Bucks does the seedings with Gerard instead and I quite enjoy their balance. Gerard is still flighty and all over the shop. "Hostage to the moment" as he likes to say. Bucks on the other hand is far more cautious, and takes more of a long term view, so he doesn't make big moves from week to week. Mine are probably somewhere in the middle. In theory, they assign a 10% weight to the most recent game, with a gradual decrease week-by-week from there.

#1 Western Bulldogs (1019) - a compelling performance against Port on Saturday. In fact they've been excellent ever since they played us in Gather Round, so they fully deserve to be the top seed right now in my view, regardless of their ladder position.

#2 Hawthorn (799) - basically did the business against Richmond. A small points gain here.

#3 Collingwood (777) - expected to win against Geelong but lose few admirers in what was a cracking match, so only a small points hit here.

#4 Geelong (741) - they gain the points Collingwood lose (more or less).

Our win over Gold Coast was basically right on expectations, so we stay #5 with 628 rating points.

Outside of the Dogs (and therefore Port), the other big movers this week were St Kilda, up 270 with their upset flogging of Freo, and Adelaide who gained 228 with their win over Carlton.

North have showed a bit in recent weeks, but I still have them at #16 (-1173), and we're favoured to beat them this week by 48 points. We've formed a bit of a habit of going through the motions against the lower ranked teams this season, so if this margin eventuates on Sunday I'll be a pretty happy vegemite.

And if you don't like my seedings, do your own!

I’ll be disturbed to see how low we have dropped on Grasshoppers rankings. Could be biblical.

As INXS once said...



Nearly all of the top 6 actually regressed this week, while 6 of the bottom 7 all made up ground. The only one of those 7 teams was Richmond, who gave 13 rating points to West Coast. So we've seen a pretty noticeable evening up of the comp. 11 teams still have a positive rating.

#1 Western Bulldogs (911) - no real shame in losing in Darwin to the Suns, but the Suns being only a mid-ranked team means the model docks the Doggies a fair bit here.

#2 Hawthorn (808) - Same as last week vs Richmond: basically did the business against Melbourne, even if the damage was only done in the last quarter.

#3 Collingwood (766) - Similar to Hawthorn: did the business against Freo. The model doesn't take into account 5 day breaks etc.

#4 Geelong (702) - A narrow loss to the Giants means they also lose some points.

It wasn't the biggest rating points loss of the season, but we still haemorrhaged 173 to fall to 455 after our draw with North, the worst performance of the round. It was enough to see us drop to #6, behind Adelaide who also lost points but not nearly as many in their narrow win over Port.

Outside North, the Suns were the best performing team, making up 108 rating points, and Essendon took 106 off Sydney.

The model has a 27 point margin in our favour against Melbourne (#15, -604) on Sunday.

 

[Nathan Barley]

 

[MSB ROYS]

The Crows are winning the stats!!! Take that Premiership window!!!

After AFL journalists finish with football gossip, out come the stats. Call me old fashioned but I thought that winning the most games and top of the table matches was the benchmark.

 

[Sunny Land]

The Crows are winning the stats!!! Take that Premiership window!!!

After AFL journalists finish with football gossip, out come the stats. Call me old fashioned but I thought that winning the most games and top of the table matches was the benchmark.

Dont ruin a good story with common sense or facts please.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Number 10 is interesting

 

[Nunez]

Number 10 is interesting

View attachment 2314857

Clearly bullshit Nick is God.

 

[Tom14]

Look away everyone: