You've just deflated me.
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Analysis Season 2025 - Statistics and Analytics Thread
- Thread starter Grasshopper17
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Premiership window MEH!
Just another hoodoo for us to smash.
Just another hoodoo for us to smash.
GenericUsername202
Club Legend
Nah don't say that. Kingy is basically the kiss of death in terms of predictions.
Dalions
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- Aug 12, 2016
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I would like to see a Premiership window against current top 8 teams only.
I feel we would be going ok in that.
I feel we would be going ok in that.
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GenericUsername202
Club Legend
I trust tarot cards before I trusted anything reliant on champion data.
PattyKwasagun
Norm Smith Medallist
What stage did we enter the premiership window last year? I know it was late in the piece - were we in it by this point in time?
GenericUsername202
Club Legend
I think around round 16 last year.
Nunez
Premium Platinum
We did what only one other team has done in winning the flag outside the top four last year. History says that shouldn't happen either.
Not sure if it's just my recency bias but we're seeing wild swings in form the last couple of years that indicate the better teams know they can't do it for the whole season and it's all about getting there and timing your run.
We're also now seeing the bottom teams just giving themselves up totally when they don't have anything much to gain by winning.
I don't care about whatever a Premiership window is or what's happened in the past . I sense the landscape is changing and if you're in the Top 8 and in form you're a chance the way the competition is now.
We're also now seeing the bottom teams just giving themselves up totally when they don't have anything much to gain by winning.
I don't care about whatever a Premiership window is or what's happened in the past . I sense the landscape is changing and if you're in the Top 8 and in form you're a chance the way the competition is now.
Elixuh
See you on the 9th green at 9
Don't we have the best W-L against top 9 teams this season?
I suppose that's irrelevant though and its all about the champion points.
I suppose that's irrelevant though and its all about the champion points.
MSB ROYS
Premium Platinum
Brilliant, now we have something to write on Fage's board and then cross off. Good times, now run towards the fire my friends.
dlanod
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Does anyone have a plot of said last 20 premiership winners against the beloved window?
Because I'd love to see which ones won it from outside the window until the window was redefined to include them post facto.
Because I'd love to see which ones won it from outside the window until the window was redefined to include them post facto.
Grasshopper17
They're goin' all the way the orange tsunami
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For what it's worth, the model I use which accounts fully for "fixture difficulty", has us #5 in attack and #9 in defence across the whole season.
It has Adelaide (#3 and #2), Collingwood (#6 and #1), Geelong (#2 and #4) and Gold Coast (#4 and #3) in the premiership window.
Hawthorn (#8 and #6) and the Giants (#7 and #5) would be "above the line".
Grasshopper17
They're goin' all the way the orange tsunami
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I think the stat is that 19 of the last 20 were in the window at the end of the regular season and the other (Bulldogs in 2016) were on the left. So 100% of premiers in the last 20 years have had a top 6 defence.
dlanod
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That helped me find info on it:
"Teams that rank in the top six for points for and points against have won 18 of the last 20 AFL premierships; all 20 have ranked in the top six for points against."
So it's not even as hard and fast as the guy keeps insisting, and it includes a period where it went from including 37.5% of the comp to 33.3% of the comp. If it existed back then Fox would've had it as top 4 until 2013 (Hawthorn won with the 5th best points against) and 2014 (Hawthorn won with the 6th best).
The window model assumes that fixtures are reasonably even amongst the competing teams, and as we know that's simply not the case this year. It's especially egregious when teams pushing for top 2 or 4 are playing teams late in season whose seasons are over and have excessively long injury lists.
It's popular because it's easy to explain but it's one of the cruder models, and very flawed in the current circumstances. I'm not losing any sleep over it
It's popular because it's easy to explain but it's one of the cruder models, and very flawed in the current circumstances. I'm not losing any sleep over it
Tom14
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- Oct 13, 2015
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I'm very much of the view that the ability to thrash bad opponents is usually a good indicator of a good team. But we've both had less bad opponents than anyone else, and we played them all in the first 14/15 weeks, so their seasons weren't over yet.
The dogs are a massive outlier the opposite way - dreadful record against good teams but absolutely beat down the terrible ones.
At the end of the day though:
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The point being that it's usually easier to thrash a bad opponent than a good one. If you play a lot of such sides it's no surprise that you score a lot and concede not much. But it doesn't say a lot about how well you perform against contenders.
Goalkicking is getting worse, except in this one part of the ground
Take a look at angle and distance goalkicking trends from the past decade
www.afl.com.au
The rise of the banana seems to have come at the cost of the drop punt.
Squiggle is good for this - https://live.squiggle.com.au/. Shows all the premiership clusters that could conceivably be considered a window before game/strategy changes dictate a new window. Pies 2023 sill an outlier though
Grasshopper17
They're goin' all the way the orange tsunami
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We rarely see the banana any more. It's usually the snap on the non-preferred foot when it's in the wrong pocket.Goalkicking is getting worse, except in this one part of the ground
Take a look at angle and distance goalkicking trends from the past decade
The rise of the banana seems to have come at the cost of the drop punt.
Tom14
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Good section in here on our game against Collingwood:
Sadly the audio on the embedded video doesn't seem to work.
Round 22, 2025 – This Week In Football
This Week In Football explores insights from contributors on various topics, including game analysis and coaching narratives. Key discussions include Brisbane's adaptability at the MCG, Luke Beveridge's unique coaching journey, and the implications of smaller AFLW fields on gameplay. The content...
thisweekinfootball.com
Sadly the audio on the embedded video doesn't seem to work.
Section 5
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Audio worked for me maybe they fixed it as the audio is most helpful
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