Season on the line next week

[D BRIDGE]

We were 5-4 last year - Melbourne were 9-0 - and we finished two games clear on top.

A lot of the season still to play out as you say.

100%

In the end I just wanna hit finals (assuming we make them) with a fit and inform list.

 

[you pick one]

Believe me, still loving what we achieved last year- this season interrupts that joy. I know, life goes on, but the near perfect season and execution will likely never be repeated by Geelong in my lifetime.

Any of the sides looking good right now could have their own horror injury run yet and derail their season, to early to be locking sides into top 4 for me.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

I think if we win 2 of the next 3 to the bye we're fine. We'll probably drop to Freo but beat GWS and Doggies.

We still have 6 games out of 11 at Geelong in the 2nd half of the year.

 

[catempire]

There are only 4 genuinely difficult games left. Even if we won none of them and dropped another 14 wins with good % would get us a home elimination final.

I don’t even think that’s likely. It’s more likely we win 11/12 of the last 14 and finish top 4.

It would not be ideal to lose this week but it’s far from season over. Probably more important is not copping any more injuries to key players.

 

[DV2000]

Last week I was pretty optimistic about our season and thought that we could come back from a poor opening 1-2 months and have a really good end to the season (like we did last year) to finish top 4, but my optimism has been shattered after our loss to Richmond and recent injuries.

We have a tough set of fixtures coming up - between now and end of the season, we play the following:

• Dogs (6th)
• Port (4th)
• Demons (2nd)
• Lions (3rd)
• Port (4th)
• Pies (1st)
• Saints (5th)
• Dogs (6th)

To finish top 4, we can only afford to lose 2-3 games between now and the end of August, but looking at the list of opponents above, I just can’t see that happening.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Not really. 4 weeks is not that short. Technically, you can call it a form of management, but we need wins, and Freo away, and Doggies anywhere are big challenges

Realistically we should have everyone available by about round 15 bar conway (but thats ok if stanley is back) and menegola so we will essentially be at full health unless we get more injuries before then.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Last week I was pretty optimistic about our season and thought that we could come back from a poor opening 1-2 months and have a really good end to the season (like we did last year) to finish top 4, but my optimism has been shattered after our loss to Richmond and recent injuries.

We have a tough set of fixtures coming up - between now and end of the season, we play the following:

• Dogs (6th)
• Port (4th)
• Demons (2nd)
• Lions (3rd)
• Port (4th)
• Pies (1st)
• Saints (5th)
• Dogs (6th)

To finish top 4, we can only afford to lose 2-3 games between now and the end of August, but looking at the list of opponents above, I just can’t see that happening.

The fact that several of those games are at gmhba helps.
We also have a very good record against the dogs, the saints are fairly overrated and havent done much yet and port are flat track bullies.

The only games on that list that are really difficult are the lions (although we have a good record up there) melbourne (will be very tough but its at home) and collingwood (who are a challenge everywhere).

If we go even 4-4 in that set of fixtures we will win enough of the other games (most of which are at home) that we are 6th/7th at worst and we might sneak top 4 (the fact that our % is so good helps).

 

[Vdubs]

Any of the sides looking good right now could have their own horror injury run yet and derail their season, to early to be locking sides into top 4 for me.

Fair enough.
I have never seen us with so much depth being so severely tested.
It is true what you say, but we are the team going through it.
That plus our early season cat-nap, it just does not feel like we have the breaks in our favour.
14 games to go- but our run home is largely against the current top 8

 

[Vdubs]

I think if we win 2 of the next 3 to the bye we're fine. We'll probably drop to Freo but beat GWS and Doggies.

We still have 6 games out of 11 at Geelong in the 2nd half of the year.

true, if we do, but Doggies are improved, with potent MF and forwards, and a great ruck. I see them as closing in on top 4, and being too settled to get done by us in the next 2 weeks.

 

[Gazzathegoat]

Unfortunately, I don't think top 4 is possible looking at Port and Brisbane's fixture. We would need to beat Port in Adelaide and/or Brisbane at the Gabba to have a chance.

I think we will be battling with Bulldogs for the 5th position which wouldn't be the end of the world. We may actually get a home final against Adelaide or St Kilda (worst case Richmond if they sneak in).

Rounds 12 to 15 will ultimately determine where we finish.

12 - Bulldogs at Marvel (50/50)
13 - BYE
14 - Port in Adelaide (40/60)
15 - Melbourne in Geelong (50/50)

We play both Bulldogs and Port again in Geelong which are no guaranteed wins. Bulldogs in the final round at GMBHA could be a playoff for a top 4/5 position..

AFL making us play Collingwood at the MCG twice is the biggest farce. Our management should do all in its power to never let this happen again once our stadium redevelopment is complete.

Collingwood, Melbourne, and Brisbane should safely hold the top 3 positions and Port look like holding the 4th unless we can beat them twice.

Side note, we play all 6 teams above us on the ladder at least once so our destiny is in our own hands.

 

[fpm84]

We can’t beat Freo without either Danger or Guthrie. I’d roll the dice is either of them is 80%, based on Scott’s comments during the week Danger could have pushed to play v Tigers.

 

[Baudolino]

I think we will be battling with Bulldogs for the 5th position which wouldn't be the end of the world. We may actually get a home final against Adelaide or St Kilda (worst case Richmond if they sneak in).

History says you have basically no chance of winning the flag from outside the top four. It would be a bad result to finish outside the top four in one of our "prime Jez + Tomahawk in the same team" years. It's such a rare thing to have two forwards of that quality in the same team. Some teams have literally never had such a luxury in their whole club history. To squander a chance to capitalise on that like we did last year would be a huge waste.

 

[Munich]

Unfortunately, I don't think top 4 is possible looking at Port and Brisbane's fixture. We would need to beat Port in Adelaide and/or Brisbane at the Gabba to have a chance.

I think we will be battling with Bulldogs for the 5th position which wouldn't be the end of the world. We may actually get a home final against Adelaide or St Kilda (worst case Richmond if they sneak in).

Rounds 12 to 15 will ultimately determine where we finish.

12 - Bulldogs at Marvel (50/50)
13 - BYE
14 - Port in Adelaide (40/60)
15 - Melbourne in Geelong (50/50)

We play both Bulldogs and Port again in Geelong which are no guaranteed wins. Bulldogs in the final round at GMBHA could be a playoff for a top 4/5 position..

AFL making us play Collingwood at the MCG twice is the biggest farce. Our management should do all in its power to never let this happen again once our stadium redevelopment is complete.

Collingwood, Melbourne, and Brisbane should safely hold the top 3 positions and Port look like holding the 4th unless we can beat them twice.

Side note, we play all 6 teams above us on the ladder at least once so our destiny is in our own hands.

We've played Coll twice every year for years.

 

[Footy Smarts]

If we're good enough we can win any game on any day. But losing to Freo away if we get a few back just suggests we're not that good.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

We can’t beat Freo without either Danger or Guthrie. I’d roll the dice is either of them is 80%, based on Scott’s comments during the week Danger could have pushed to play v Tigers.

Tbh i do think we can do it without danger i think doing it without stanley is the bigger issue. Ceglar on the bigger ground will get exposed for run a lot.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

History says you have basically no chance of winning the flag from outside the top four. It would be a bad result to finish outside the top four in one of our "prime Jez + Tomahawk in the same team" years. It's such a rare thing to have two forwards of that quality in the same team. Some teams have literally never had such a luxury in their whole club history. To squander a chance to capitalise on that like we did last year would be a huge waste.

Historically yes but this is the weakest top 4 we have seen in many years. I can see an in form team winning it from 6th this year.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

true, if we do, but Doggies are improved, with potent MF and forwards, and a great ruck. I see them as closing in on top 4, and being too settled to get done by us in the next 2 weeks.

It Depends on what personal we have back, I believe most will be back before the bye. If we get around 5-6 players back, then I think we should win that.

 

[Jumping Jack]

Cats will be fine.

Bookies have 4 firm favourites of which we’re one. Then a big gap between us and the rest in most markets.

There’s a reason for that. Everyone knows our best is better than anyone’s, and no one wants to play us.

When the whips are cracking I reckon we’ll be thereabouts. If we can get most blokes back and the team gelling, then I think we’re still a big chance. Never really got too invested in going back to back but we’re one of 4-5 who I think can win it. To be saying that in May sits ok with me.

Let’s enjoy the ride - it will be intriguing.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Historically yes but this is the weakest top 4 we have seen in many years. I can see an in form team winning it from 6th this year.

I agree 1000% with you

Im not that perturbed if Geel dont finish top 4 - for the very reason you have stated

Terribly weak comp - Geel get all their players fit and firing re Sept -bottom part of 8 you need to win 4 games to win flag - top 4 - have to still win 3 games to win the premiership - one double chance - but last 2 finals sudden death - and we have seen numerous short price faves on PF night get the jitters

And Geel in the finals this year - have got no pressure on them whatsoever - because the Premiership drought clock for the Cats is sitting at Zero years .

 

[Turbocat]

One week at time ........ all we have to do is .....

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I agree 1000% with you

Im not that perturbed if Geel dont finish top 4 - for the very reason you have stated

Terribly weak comp - Geel get all their players fit and firing re Sept -bottom part of 8 you need to win 4 games to win flag - top 4 - have to still win 3 games to win the premiership - one double chance - but last 2 finals sudden death - and we have seen numerous short price faves on PF night get the jitters

And Geel in the finals this year - have got no pressure on them whatsoever - because the Premiership drought clock for the Cats is sitting at Zero years .

Yep i agree too and the pre finals bye helps because it negates the QF winners getting the week off makes it easier to win from 6th.

Look if we dont have a healthy list with only s couple of key injuries we arent winning it anyway-and thats a concern for me bc older and younger players and we have a lot of both (we dont have a lot in the prime middle age bracket).

But if we are healthy and in good form the month before the finals we can 100 % win it from 6th as none of the top 4 are formidable this year.

 

[Vdubs]

It Depends on what personal we have back, I believe most will be back before the bye. If we get around 5-6 players back, then I think we should win that.

We should, as long they’re properly good to go

 

[foxdog50]

Fremantle A ️
GWS H️
Western Bulldogs A️
Port Adelaide A️
Melbourne H️
Sydney A️
North Melbourne H️
Essendon H️
Brisbane A️
Fremantle H️
Port Adelaide H️
Collingwood A️
St Kilda A️
Western Bulldogs H️

 

[catempire]

History says you have basically no chance of winning the flag from outside the top four. It would be a bad result to finish outside the top four in one of our "prime Jez + Tomahawk in the same team" years. It's such a rare thing to have two forwards of that quality in the same team. Some teams have literally never had such a luxury in their whole club history. To squander a chance to capitalise on that like we did last year would be a huge waste.

Perhaps but the only thing defeating us at this point is our injury list. The slow start of course didn’t help either. It’s not like we are fielding a full strength team and “wasting” it.

 

[Baudolino]

Perhaps but the only thing defeating us at this point is our injury list. The slow start of course didn’t help either. It’s not like we are fielding a full strength team and “wasting” it.

Fair point!

Still, in a way that would make it even more galling if one of our prime Jez + Hawkins in the same team years ended up being a "lost season" due to injuries. It could be decades before we assemble combined firepower like this again.