Preview Season Opener; "The War In Heaven": Etihad Stadium (H), Saturday 25 March 2017, 4;35pm

[schmuttt]

Pardon me for intruding, but have read through the whole thread. Some good analysis in here, just wanted to address ChrisRyanSaints about us supposedly being 'soft'. In 2016 we were the 5th best side in contested possession differentials and the 3rd best for clearances (Source). We have some flaws as a team yes, and St.Kilda match up very well on us in terms of style but we aren't soft. One thing I thought was symptomatic of the problems we have against you guys was in the 2nd game this year, we had a really good 1st quarter but in the 2nd the saints got their running and pressure game going and instead of doing the smart thing and just Paul Roosing the s**t out of the game and locking it down (Which is a pretty strong strategy at Etihad as you guys would know) we kept trying to run through it.

Our improvement going forward is not only on our kids progressing again but us developing guys like Salem/Stretch/Hunt who can play on the outside, whereas you guys are the same with kids progressing but the opposite in the middle in that you need to develop more quality inside players.

I thought that Schwarz article was absolute rubbish by the way, any Melbourne supporter with a brain knows we need to win anywhere if we want to improve and make finals. I think any game between our two clubs is an 8 point game next year because I see North dropping out but there are no guarantees no-one else does, and our two sides are the two best chances to go into the 8.

After looking at them teams two things jump right at me.

1. How the Dees have a better top 6 or so players right now.

2. How our bottom 6 are incredibly better than Melbournes. There's not a chance blokes like Pedersen, Melksham, Kent, Vanderberg, Frost or Bugg get a game in our team though.

It's going to be a few greatly talented players verse a well rounded team all over the park. Which wins?

Dean Kent would definitely get a game for the Saints. Averaged 16 disposals and 1.25 goals a game whilst leading our team for goal assists. Frost would be borderline but the rest I'll give you, I don't have Vandenberg or Bugg on my current best 22 for us either (Frost is matchup dependant, for example he'll definitely play against the Saints).

 

[ChrisRyanSaints]

Viney and gawn = clearances. No surprise there.
BUT 5th for contested?? surprises me
It just seems when we apply pressure you go to water. Thats just been the experience last 2 years.
Possibly the youngsters but jones and viney vince were with them.
Mmmm i dont know. Maybe just a classic bogey team.
Anyway dont take it to heart too much just pushin buttons having fun. No point having bragging rights if cant use it lol. I know im bad. How much do you want to beat us now ey??
Schmuttt

 

[Diehard Saint]

Just browsing the Dees board to see their thoughts over our round 1 match when I came across this gem from Sellout Scully. They REALLY hate Etihad over there

Bring the torches, bring the wood
Gather the mates from the neighborhood
We're taking the bus, into town
We're gonna go burn Etihad down

The facilities are sh*t, the grass is fake
Why do we have home games there, ffs
It's empty concrete, it has no soul
Scheduling us there is just being a troll

So forget the rebuild, forget the picks
Collect the rocks, assemble the bricks
It's not our fault this club ain't sound
It's all the fault of this f***ing ground

PS: Don't arrest me ASIO

 

[schmuttt]

Viney and gawn = clearances. No surprise there.
BUT 5th for contested?? surprises me
It just seems when we apply pressure you go to water. Thats just been the experience last 2 years.
Possibly the youngsters but jones and viney vince were with them.
Mmmm i dont know. Maybe just a classic bogey team.
Anyway dont take it to heart too much just pushin buttons having fun. No point having bragging rights if cant use it lol. I know im bad. How much do you want to beat us now ey??
Schmuttt

I've got no issue with you s**t talking us on your own board, just we are nothing if not a 'tough' team.

You match up well on us, and our skills aren't good enough under a lot of pressure right now which is your benchmark. It frustrates me greatly that we can't apply the same pressure back because I think I'm right in saying whilst our skills aren't top tier neither are yours.

I want to beat you guys badly because it'll be a big confidence boost and like I said it is an 8 point game. I know you all think the same, North should drop but there is no guarantee anyone else will leave the 8. If we can't make it I'd rather you guys than anyone else outside the 8 anyway, I tend to sympathise a lot with saints supporters. Our clubs owe us a lot!

 

[Barrels]

Potential match ups:
Bruce- TMac
McCartin- OMac
Membrey- Frost

Hogan- Carlisle
Pederson- Brown
Watts- Dempster/ Roberto

Hopefully we will be able to contain Hogan now with a few more options.

Been thinking about this a bit... Some of the matchups are really excellent.

The way I've set the teams up, you'd have:

StK FWD
Bruce - T. McDonald
McCartin - O. McDonald
Membrey - Frost*
Billings - Bugg
Steele - Hibberd
Weller - Jetta

* Hibberd a better fit, but Frost is not at all suited to Steele.

Dees FWD
Hogan - Carlisle
Pedersen - Brown
Watts - Roberton
Petracca - Dempster
Gartlett - Geary
Melksham - Savage

In the MIDS
Hickey - Gawn
Steven - Kent
Armitage - Viney
Newnes - Tyson
Ross - Jones
Riewoldt - Vandenberg
Stevens - Lewis
Gresham - Vince
Acres - Oliver
Montagna - Harmes

That's a bloody even game.

 

[RoundCubic]

I've got no issue with you s**t talking us on your own board, just we are nothing if not a 'tough' team.

You match up well on us, and our skills aren't good enough under a lot of pressure right now which is your benchmark. It frustrates me greatly that we can't apply the same pressure back because I think I'm right in saying whilst our skills aren't top tier neither are yours.

I want to beat you guys badly because it'll be a big confidence boost and like I said it is an 8 point game. I know you all think the same, North should drop but there is no guarantee anyone else will leave the 8. If we can't make it I'd rather you guys than anyone else outside the 8 anyway, I tend to sympathise a lot with saints supporters. Our clubs owe us a lot!

Lol we actually have the highest disposal efficiency no problem with us

Saints problem is getting more clearances and until this year a lack of true KPD's which lead to top teams smashing us because they got the clearance and kicked long to a 1 on 1 which favored them thus we beat you but Hogan kicked 6 goals.

Dees are good at running with the ball carrier and taking away the easy handballs but Richo from the start been building a team that looks to kick instead of handballs

Contested possessions/clearances is largely skill not toughness

toughness is the ability to absorb energy and plastically deform without fracturing. That's Paddy kicking a goal with a broken collar bone, Wellers chin, Websters smashing through players, Roo getting his knee drained every week or anything Geary/Wright does and it has been nurtured by a coach who played as tough as anyone.

That's what they accuse some Dee's players of braking when the pain is put on not of lacking skills and that's what the Saints bring pain

 

[JG22]

Reckon Nathan Brown will take Hogan, while Carlisle possibly the second defender but more of a looser role as he goes into the ruck and uses his best asset of intercept marking in the back half.

 

[King_Steele]

Reckon Nathan Brown will take Hogan, while Carlisle possibly the second defender but more of a looser role as he goes into the ruck and uses his best asset of intercept marking in the back half.

+1.

Can't bloody wait to see Carlisle/Brown duo

 

[sverik25]

Lol we actually have the highest disposal efficiency no problem with us

Saints problem is getting more clearances and until this year a lack of true KPD's which lead to top teams smashing us because they got the clearance and kicked long to a 1 on 1 which favored them thus we beat you but Hogan kicked 6 goals.

Dees are good at running with the ball carrier and taking away the easy handballs but Richo from the start been building a team that looks to kick instead of handballs

Even though we had the highest disposal efficiency this year, I think our disposal is still problematic at times, especially when going forward. I remember long periods of games this year which we dominated, but kept bombing it long inside 50, looking for contested marks which just doesn't happen that often. It definitely cost us the second game against North, we had something like 15 more I50s for the game, but only managed to score 62 points. It was a problem for a while in the second game against Melbourne too, but luckily we kept our dominance going and broke them in the second half.

This is an area that still needs work if we are going to be confident of beating Melbourne and seriously challenging IMO.

 

[RoundCubic]

Even though we had the highest disposal efficiency this year, I think our disposal is still problematic at times, especially when going forward. I remember long periods of games this year which we dominated, but kept bombing it long inside 50, looking for contested marks which just doesn't happen that often. It definitely cost us the second game against North, we had something like 15 more I50s for the game, but only managed to score 62 points. It was a problem for a while in the second game against Melbourne too, but luckily we kept our dominance going and broke them in the second half.

This is an area that still needs work if we are going to be confident of beating Melbourne and seriously challenging IMO.

Sure we can get better but we are not lacking in kicking disposal skills I think when we don't get the ball forward quick we need to get better at working the systems to get space and a mark at that 40-45m from goal instead of the obvious kick that gets intercepted or the bomb to the top of the goal square.

Bruce also had a horrid time with the umps this year though I hate blaming the umps for anything

 

[gringo2011]

I've got no issue with you s**t talking us on your own board, just we are nothing if not a 'tough' team.

You match up well on us, and our skills aren't good enough under a lot of pressure right now which is your benchmark. It frustrates me greatly that we can't apply the same pressure back because I think I'm right in saying whilst our skills aren't top tier neither are yours.

I want to beat you guys badly because it'll be a big confidence boost and like I said it is an 8 point game. I know you all think the same, North should drop but there is no guarantee anyone else will leave the 8. If we can't make it I'd rather you guys than anyone else outside the 8 anyway, I tend to sympathise a lot with saints supporters. Our clubs owe us a lot!

I have Melbourne mates so have watched a fair bit more of them than some other clubs. I don't think they any softer or harder than any other club. You guys probably were soft a few years ago but have addressed that...Jones has always liked it hard but he has some friends now. Melbourne are building a killer midfield and I think with a coach with a modern game plan you should be aiming for finals, anything less and it's a fail for Goodwin. We should have fair rivalry coming up in the next few years. Your on the right path for the first time in a long time.

 

[Glen Buterol]

Salem & Tyson instead of Kelly. Yuck.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Being as impartial as I can be (Melbourne supporters who read this please chime in and tell me if I rate one of your blokes wrong) I reckon we stack up decently given the circumstances.

Steven is better than Viney easily.
Not too sure if Armo and Lewis are comparable as I see Lewis playing more as a flanker for the Dee's than in an under like Armo. I'd say Lewis is better off half back and Armo in the centre.
Ross vs Tyson was pretty similar. Checked the stats and Tyson has played 12 more games and averages 2 more possessions but Ross had a better season last. I'll give it to Tyson but they're quite similar players.
Jones is better than Kobe no questions
I know the Dee's rate Oliver pretty high but we rate Acres pretty highly too. Honestly Oliver was a bolter in his draft year and I like his game but bias wins here Acres
Brayshaw should be better than Luke.
Have Newnes ahead of Bugg comfortably
Riewoldt next
Love Gresh but Petracca should be top 5 player at his peak.
Billings is better than Salem comfortably
Not sure about Gilbo or Vanderberg (Tie I guess, don't see either adding much)
Steele, I liked ANB in his draft year but he just a tad vanilla to me, should be a 150 gamer though.
Weller is much better than bloody Melksham.

Have 7 to the Saints and 4 to the Dee's not including Armo vs Lewis and Gilbert vs VDB.

Just my main issue is that Jones for all of his leadership is quite easily replaced by the Dee's and we have no real youngster that is stepping up to replace Stuv (I'm resigned to the fact Riewoldt is irreplaceable).

I rate our spread better than there's (how we beat this this year) but they're a stronger team on the inside.

I think they have a higher concentration of "high end" talent, we have Paddy, Freeman and Billings which are top 10 picks whilst they have Petracca, Tyson, Brayshaw, Oliver, Salem, Weidman (Hogan if you want to count mini drafts as well). Our young talent is actually near the end of the first round and early second round with the likes of Dunstan, Acres, Dmac, Gresh, Steele etc..

Must be noted we were playing Grand Finals in 2009 and 2010 whilst the Dee's were at the bottom and rebuilding even then so in 2016 for both clubs to be arguably in the same position says a lot about how we're coached and how we drafted.

I have no issue with people saying Melbourne have a better talent cause on paper they do like we did in 04/05/09/10 and it counted for stuff all in the long run.

Sorry if this was incoherant

tl'dr: They tanked longer than us and got better draft picks but we're still doing alright

My comparisons and how I rated them were all to do with how I reckon they'll go in this round 1 game in particular though, or at most next season, not in the long run. Eg. in the Acres v Oliver comparison, I would imagine Blake will be ahead of Oliver by early next season, as he will hopefully have a 4th preseason under his belt by then and a more prominent role in his side, whereas Oliver will only be in his 2nd year and may not even be established in his side by then yet.

I also don't agree with the assertions that Steven is well ahead of Viney. Just about a toss of the coin for mine, especially since Viney is still only 22yo and as such could be better again in 2017 without much trouble. 16 Brownlow votes from 22 games v 14 from 21 suggests that there's probably not much in it as well.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Salem & Tyson instead of Kelly. Yuck.

Kelly and whoever they would have taken at 21. Although they have said that they wouldn't have taken Kelly if they had kept the pick and I believe would have actually taken Billings, so at this stage I doubt they have any great regrets.

Salem is very similar to Billings IMO in that for various reasons, we haven't seen anywhere near the best of him yet. With Hibberd and Vince across HB now and also Hunt back there, they will now be able to push Salem up to the wing and he could be just what they need there.

Tyson is their version of Ross, so I don't think they'd be unhappy to have him.

 

[crasha301]

Been thinking about this a bit... Some of the matchups are really excellent.

The way I've set the teams up, you'd have:

StK FWD
Bruce - T. McDonald
McCartin - O. McDonald
Membrey - Frost*
Billings - Bugg
Steele - Hibberd
Weller - Jetta

* Hibberd a better fit, but Frost is not at all suited to Steele.

Dees FWD
Hogan - Carlisle
Pedersen - Brown
Watts - Roberton
Petracca - Dempster
Gartlett - Geary
Melksham - Savage

In the MIDS
Hickey - Gawn
Steven - Kent
Armitage - Viney
Newnes - Tyson
Ross - Lewis
Riewoldt - Vandenberg
Stevens - Lewis
Gresham - Vince
Acres - Oliver
Montagna - Harmes

That's a bloody even game.

Lewis really standing up in his first year with the dees, bloke is everywhere.

 

[King_Steele]

Been thinking about this a bit... Some of the matchups are really excellent.

The way I've set the teams up, you'd have:

StK FWD
Bruce - T. McDonald
McCartin - O. McDonald
Membrey - Frost*
Billings - Bugg
Steele - Hibberd
Weller - Jetta

* Hibberd a better fit, but Frost is not at all suited to Steele.

Dees FWD
Hogan - Carlisle
Pedersen - Brown
Watts - Roberton
Petracca - Dempster
Gartlett - Geary
Melksham - Savage

In the MIDS
Hickey - Gawn
Steven - Kent
Armitage - Viney
Newnes - Tyson
Ross - Lewis
Riewoldt - Vandenberg
Stevens - Lewis
Gresham - Vince
Acres - Oliver
Montagna - Harmes

That's a bloody even game.

I'm expecting a tight game

It feels like Skunk has been the difference in both matches this year so other than that it's pretty close IMO

 

[cooperrules]

saints to win the flag membrey for the coleman 3500 to 1.

 

[aussierulesrules]

saints to win the flag membrey for the coleman 3500 to 1.

If you're going to make that bet I'd be happy to take it and give you 3600 to 1.

 

[12Chill]

Didn't they also get a late pick that they used on Jayden Hunt from the Kelly/Tyson/Salem deal?

 

[By a Point]

Looks like a really good game to start the year. Normally we get to play the Suns at Metricon. Any footy fan looking to go to one good game that would go to Etihad on Sunday afternoon. First game again is the blockbuster of Carlton v Richmond ffs. Why does the AFL persist with this favour. I think we have been given a cracker, win or lose. Two modern style teams have a crack. I have ordered the Tiger Moth for the trip. See you there.

 

[theprospect]

Heard a rumour we could get a Friday night game against the Dogs...not entirely sure on the legitimacy of it but strewth, wouldn't it be great to show up the champs on a Friday night under the roof at Etihad

 

[SaintLex]

I don't think he'll miss the game, but it's news anyway. Who plans their wedding during footy season anyway c'mon now

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-27/late-fixture-change-means-saint-will-be-a-sinner

 

[King_Steele]

I don't think he'll miss the game, but it's news anyway. Who plans their wedding during footy season anyway c'mon now

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-27/late-fixture-change-means-saint-will-be-a-sinner

Come on Jakey

We've waited long enough

 

[schmuttt]

I don't think he'll miss the game, but it's news anyway. Who plans their wedding during footy season anyway c'mon now

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-27/late-fixture-change-means-saint-will-be-a-sinner

Cmon Jake, your sister (Hopefully) only gets married once!

 

[Quixote]

I prefer to play Melbourne when they're on top of the world and sailing into September after 2 straight wins, but this will do I guess.

Tight game predicted.