Preview Second Semi-Final – Collingwood vs GWS Giants, Saturday 15th September 2018, MCG, 7.25pm

[KevDawg]

Doubt it. Theres talk of stars leaving every year.

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Hopefully, there’s so much that it just becomes irrelevant background noise.

 

[KevDawg]

Its so nice of Eddie going in to bat for us and trying to get our prelim against Richmond moved so that we're not disadvantaged by a 6 day break. And all this time i thought he was a self serving knob ...

He’s only doing it for himself. Just like everything he does.
He doesn’t come out to say the Pies had a relatively easy home n away draw.

 

[KevDawg]

I am all booked for my first Giants match at the MCG, can't wait. Not expecting to win but expecting a competitive showing at least.

We will win!

 

[KevDawg]

Holy cow

Could have Kelly, Griffen, Taylor, and big Dawson all available !!

Doubt it would happen but imagine if we picked Dawson to ruck and threw Lobb forward too. That would cause some headaches

Also personally I don't think Josh will get up. Reckon the keeping Collingwood on their toes

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Do y’all think we should risk Kelly?

 

[Sime11]

personally if he's not right - dont play him, its likely he goes down in the game if he plays - we need everyone 100% firing and cant carry someone who will struggle to make an impact - even if he's one of the best players in our squad....

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Collingwouldn’ts thousands of supporters will descend I’m sure.
I was at the G for our first game with them. They top my list of clunge supporters.
General Admin. Maybe a mistake. First bounce, I yell out, “Go Giants!!!!” Loudly.
Three rows back, Pies ‘**** goes, “I’m going to kill that f#cken pr!ck”.
I can handle myself. I wasn’t bothered, but on it went throughout the game.

I had a young punk if a Swans fan step into my face and spit beer at me on the concourse leaving the SCG on Saturday. Security were there pretty much straight away and said they'd handle it.
There's a but if randomness involved I think. The vibe in mostly their crowd was ok.

I've never seen a nasty vibe like the Bulldogs supporters at the PF, and again at Manuka last year. This year there didn't seem to be many of them there.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Do y’all think we should risk Kelly?

Cal called it he will play a bit sore on AFL360.

 

[kulak]

Stats!

Tackle differential:
Magpies +8.4 (1st in AFL)
Giants -0.2

Clearance differential:
Magpies +3.6 (1st in AFL)
Giants +2.8

Handball differential:
Magpies +22.0 (1st in AFL)
Giants +8.7

Mark differential:
Magpies -5.1
Giants +1.3

Uncontested possession differential:
Magpies +18.1 (2nd in AFL)
Giants +10.6

Collingwood has a very distinctive style which fits their team. They have a great midfield, and their defence and forward line are both great at ground level, but not so much if exposed in one-on-one aerial duels.

They like to run, handball, pressure and tackle. They don't try to possess the ball with uncontested marks. Create a high pressure messy game which suits their strengths; lots of ground level contests.

Whereas the Giants are mid-table in all those stats. Nothing which really jumps out about the game style. A bit of everything. Which also makes sense because the Giants have a good mix of quality in all types of roles.

Nothing really jumps out in the other main stats:

Inside 50 differential:
Magpies +4.8
Giants +1.4

Contested possession differential:
Magpies +9.3
Giants +9.6

Intercept differential:
Magpies +0.7
Giants +3.0

Who does it suit?

I think if the Giants match the Magpies in the effort stats like tackles and contested possessions, then it may be quite difficult for the Magpies to kick too many goals. The Giants have a nicely balanced defence right now. With good pressure to ensure we don't lose on the fast break, the Magpies will struggle to score.

The Magpies key defence is poor. Cameron and Himmelberg should both have good opportunity to take marks. If the Magpies midfield can win the pressure arm-wrestle, then the messy entry to the Giants forwards will mean the Magpies mid and small defenders will have a field day. However if the Giants midfield can break even, and get into space from time-to-time, then the Giants forwards should get to a reasonable score.

Overall I would expect something similar to the WCE / Pies result, with a Giants win 13 goals to 9.

With the one caveat that if the Magpies rise to the occasion, the Giants shrink, and the Magpies bulldoze the midfield contest - then it could get ugly. If the Magpies small and mid forwards repeatedly get out into space they will put a big score on the board. I would think that's unlikely as the Giants have been good in hostile environments this year but 60k+ at the MCG is a different experience than most people would ever have in their lives so you never know.

 

[Cmarsh]

Cal called it he will play a bit sore on AFL360.

Problem with that is he won't get a chance to fully recover for the rest of the finals series, assuming we make it through.

 

[kulak]

Brodie Grundy vs Rory Lobb will be huge.

Lobb fought a draw with Sinclair on the weekend. Sinclair is not that good, I doubt he is in the top 10 ruckmen in the league.

Grundy is very close to the best along with Max Gawn. Grundy has the ability to completely dominate the ruck, give Collingwood a clear win around the contest, and basically win them the game.

Can Lobb force enough of a contest to partially neutralise Grundy?

 

[frenchconnection]

personally if he's not right - dont play him, its likely he goes down in the game if he plays - we need everyone 100% firing and cant carry someone who will struggle to make an impact - even if he's one of the best players in our squad....

Don't mind the intrusion, but when Mick Malthouse used to coach he always said no Club can afford to play injured players in a final as you come unstuck. If said player breaks down, you are then playing 1 player short for the rest of the game.

Good luck for this weekend guys - relying on you to win as would love to see you get through to the GF and likewise us and then 2 non Victorian teams end up playing off in the GF. One can only dream I guess

 

[Big Stinky Monk]

Good luck for this weekend guys - relying on you to win as would love to see you get through to the GF and likewise us and then 2 non Victorian teams end up playing off in the GF. One can only dream I guess

Well it is the only outcome where the grand final would be played at a neutral venue, so in the interest of a fair and equal comp, I'm with you

 

[CFC2010]

Should be a great game guys & gals...….may the best team win.

Heater still makes me laugh

 

[Simmofreo]

Hopefully, there’s so much that it just becomes irrelevant background noise.

Sit Next to Snookers

Seriously

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[Simmofreo]

personally if he's not right - dont play him, its likely he goes down in the game if he plays - we need everyone 100% firing and cant carry someone who will struggle to make an impact - even if he's one of the best players in our squad....

No tomorrow though

Tough one

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[Simmofreo]

I had a young punk if a Swans fan step into my face and spit beer at me on the concourse leaving the SCG on Saturday. Security were there pretty much straight away and said they'd handle it.
There's a but if randomness involved I think. The vibe in mostly their crowd was ok.

I've never seen a nasty vibe like the Bulldogs supporters at the PF, and again at Manuka last year. This year there didn't seem to be many of them there.

Nothing tops the dogs prelim

My 60 year old father at his first AFL game almost got into a brawl at the pub because I put a ginats hat on him and they were trying to knock his beer out of his hand saying "plastic cup to go with your plastic club"

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[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Brodie Grundy vs Rory Lobb will be huge.

Lobb fought a draw with Sinclair on the weekend. Sinclair is not that good, I doubt he is in the top 10 ruckmen in the league.

Grundy is very close to the best along with Max Gawn. Grundy has the ability to completely dominate the ruck, give Collingwood a clear win around the contest, and basically win them the game.

Can Lobb force enough of a contest to partially neutralise Grundy?

Is the big lug a bolters chance? He was a couple of rows down from ne at the SCG and looked to moving ok for it's worth.
Could maybe see him at the taps, but around the ground with Grundy he might struggle.

 

[Colonial]

Saturday, September 15 at 7:25pm
MCG
FB: Zac Williams, Phil Davis, Adam Kennedy
HB: Nick Haynes, Adam Tomlinson, Matt Buntine
C: Sam Reid, Callan Ward, Matt de Boer
HF: Dylan Shiel, Harry Himmelberg, Brett Deledio
FF: Tim Taranto, Jeremy Cameron, Toby Greene

RR: Rory Lobb, Stephen Coniglio, Jacob Hopper
Interchange: Ryan Griffen, Lachie Keeffe, Lachie Whitfield, Zac Langdon
In: Ryan Griffen, Lachie Keeffe
Out: Josh Kelly (Knee), Harry Perryman (Omitted)
Emergencies: Aiden Bonar, Isaac Cumming, Harry Perryman, Daniel Lloyd


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[Land of the Giants]

Kelly out, Perryman omitted.

Griffen and Keefe in.

 

[Drummond]

Keeffe?? Explain that one to me. Thought Perryman has been solid.

Absolutely sucks that neither Corr or Taylor are fit, and they have to resort to Keeffe.

 

[Teeso]

Kelly out, Perryman omitted.

Griffen and Keefe in.

Keefe to follow Cox around (presumably selected since can run all day and all our defenders would give up a 15cm height disadvantage to him), Buntine to DeGoey, Davis to Mihocek and Haynes to float and help out everyone. Greene vs Maynard should be interesting but hopefully Greene has a big game. The mids will be critical and wll need to run the Collingwood mids off their feet. Also a bit nervous about injuries with Lids, Reid, Griffen and DeBoer in the team.

 

[Land of the Giants]

Keeffe?? Explain that one to me. Thought Perryman has been solid.

Absolutely sucks that neither Corr or Taylor are fit, and they have to resort to Keeffe.

We've selected on fitness.

Griffen is a great addition for any team, he'll provide some physicality, which won't hurt.

 

[dlanod]

Keeffe?? Explain that one to me. Thought Perryman has been solid.

Absolutely sucks that neither Corr or Taylor are fit, and they have to resort to Keeffe.

I struggled to come up with a reason, and I was thinking maybe he's to ruck and we'll play Lobb up forward to expose Collingwood's lack of height.

The Cox theory by Teeso also holds water though.

 

[Colonial]

Keeffe?? Explain that one to me.

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[Colonial]

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