Prediction Semi Final: Changes v Sydney (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)

[Deaneus!]

Playing Wright ahead of younger guys last year was fine. The club were trying to steady the ship and even try to make the 8, they did both.

I respectfully disagree sir.

Steadying the ship and making the 8 is all well and good, but if you're relying on the star-power of the 21st and 22nd players picked in your side, you have to ask why the 1st - 20th players need them.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Someone said that Henderson was battling with an achilles during the SANFL game. Was that the injury he missed a couple of games with after the Geelong game?

 

[Peter Doherty]

Oh bullshit.

Wrights position was being defended as non-statistical and yet a couple of weeks later he was dropped despite no change in his performance.

Wright didn't help us make the finals and when Knight played he helped us win one.

Let's not re-write history. They went with someone they thought would be safer, given the circumstances it's understandable really.

 

[Elite Crow]

Let's not re-write history. They went with someone they thought would be safer, given the circumstances it's understandable really.

I understand they went with the safer option, you're the one rewriting history saying it was the right move.

They admitted their mistake eventually when they dropped him, in your desire to back the club you're ignoring that.

 

[WetCrow1991]

What it tells me is that he is a real chance to play and we're disguising our intentions.

Fine be damned.

I'm serious by the way. I think we're going out of our way to potentially hide our thinking

And I like it, especially against a side that may have issues with their focus this week.

 

[Elite Crow]

Someone said that Henderson was battling with an achilles during the SANFL game. Was that the injury he missed a couple of games with after the Geelong game?

Not sure but Rowey said he was today.

 

[1970crow]

Someone said that Henderson was battling with an achilles during the SANFL game. Was that the injury he missed a couple of games with after the Geelong game?

Yep, achilles it was.

 

[Peter Doherty]

I understand they went with the safer option, you're the one rewriting history saying it was the right move.

They admitted their mistake eventually when they dropped him, in your desire to back the club you're ignoring that.

I said I was fine with the decision considering the circumstances, I tolerated it, I didnt love it. I got where they were coming from. When the season ended they moved him on, on the path to the finals he was seen as a safer option not a long term option. I don't really seeing that as admitting a mistake. More like they prioritised safer selection options over promoting kids for half a season. Again, given the circumstances I get that.

I'm a strong believer that the club doing so well to make the 8, win a final in Melbs played a huge role in giving this team belief this year.

 

[jenny61_99]

If you want certainty then it's not a risk

Blight took a risk because he'd lost players to injury. He said when asked about his genius moves in the grand final, his response was "They look genius only because they came off, so many more I make that don't. I don't look like a genius then." Would Blight have taken those risks if Mods and Roo were in the side? I don't think so.

 

[Elite Crow]

I said I was fine with the decision considering the circumstances, I tolerated it, I didnt love it. I got where they were coming from. When the season ended they moved him on, on the path to the finals he was seen as a safer option not a long term option. I don't really seeing that as admitting a mistake. More like they prioritised safer selection options over promoting kids for half a season. Again, given the circumstances I get that.

I'm a strong believer that the club doing so well to make the 8, win a final in Melbs played a huge role in giving this team belief this year.

What circumstances?

 

[Peter Doherty]

What circumstances?

The Phil Walsh passing gets glossed over quite a bit. The club held together and we should be proud of what they achieved last year. Looking back and thinking, 'they had no balls at the selection table' is a little unfair I feel. My view is I was okay with selections that were seen as 'safe' given the circumstances.

Anyway, will the emergencies be in a cab to the airport as soon as the match starts Sat night to be ready for Sturt?

 

[GROTTO]

Surely this board has at least one more selection changes for 2016 left in it?????

I think we will just manage to roll the Swans in a tight one.

 

[Sanders]

Blight took a risk because he'd lost players to injury. He said when asked about his genius moves in the grand final, his response was "They look genius only because they came off, so many more I make that don't. I don't look like a genius then." Would Blight have taken those risks if Mods and Roo were in the side? I don't think so.

Not sure what that has to do with your requirement for certainty?

Or even what it has to do with timings either.

If the deck is stacked against you, you need to take a risk to swing the odds back in your favour. If you hold the advantage then you probably want to keep doing what your doing

We've had a track record in the past of continuing with the same old plans despite not having the advantage

Tiger woods' great move when he was winning things, was he would establish a lead in the first 3 rounds and then play ultra cautious in the last round. Not making mistakes and keeping a steady hand.

That forced others to take risks, to try and overhaul him.

What wouldn't have made sense is playing safe and steady from 5th place.

Unless you were happy with a placing and not winning

 

[Elite Crow]

The Phil Walsh passing gets glossed over quite a bit. The club held together and we should be proud of what they achieved last year. Looking back and thinking, 'they had no balls at the selection table' is a little unfair I feel. My view is I was okay with selections that were seen as 'safe' given the circumstances.

Anyway, will the emergencies be in a cab to the airport as soon as the match starts Sat night to be ready for Sturt?

Wright played 12 games before Phil's passing and 4 after it. He wasn't kept in because of circumstances, we played him when out of form for 12 games before Phil passed.

I imagine they will be, unless we want to hold any back just in case against because of the short turnaround until the prelim.

 

[dylan123]

Going by the padding he had on his ribcage and the fact he played deep in the forward line in the SANFL, I'm guessing Jono is carrying broken ribs. No way he plays AFL this year.

Ah wasn't aware.

Just assumed since he was upgraded later in the season, kicked 7 last week and a couple the week before to go with 20 odd disposals he'd be a decent chance given I assumed it would have been for Jenkins if anyone.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Wright played 12 games before Phil's passing and 4 after it. He wasn't kept in because of circumstances, we played him when out of form for 12 games before Phil passed.

I imagine they will be, unless we want to hold any back just in case against because of the short turnaround until the prelim.

4 games? Right, seemed like more.

Would be weird being in the air knowing the guys are playing a final.

 

[Shoota Welsh]

Contracted till 2017 at which point he'll be an UFA, only way he "moves" is if he so wishes to.

who cares he sucks no where near best 22 should delist. sad to say seeing his injuries but tbh could have been delisted 2 years ago

 

[Bicks]

who cares he sucks no where near best 22 should delist. sad to say seeing his injuries but tbh could have been delisted 2 years ago

I disagree, Otten is 1st class depth, capable of pinch hitting up forward or in defence, competes well when called on to give a chop out in ruck and has genuine hardness, something some of his team-mates sadly lack.
I've watched several of his SANFL games recently and he has performed really well and it's no coincidence the selectors have noted it also given he's an emergency for this week's final.

 

[Interloperer]

Wright played 12 games before Phil's passing and 4 after it. He wasn't kept in because of circumstances, we played him when out of form for 12 games before Phil passed.

Wright was only truly terrible in the first few games, his form wavered between mediocre and acceptable for the rest of the year in a role where it is impossible to perform beyond that. Relieved of that burden he's getting 20 disposals and a goal a game at Carlton.

I wonder what would have happened had his crucial goal vs Sydney last year not been ridiculously cancelled out by the video replay.

 

[Sanders]

192cm Otten is going to ruck?

He was 3rd man up for us a couple of times under Sando but I don't recall him actually taking a centre bounce

 

[Paladin]

192cm Otten is going to ruck?

He was 3rd man up for us a couple of times under Sando but I don't recall him actually taking a centre bounce

He didn't take many centre bounces but he certainly rucked around the ground for 10-15 mins a game for a considerable stretch.

 

[Sanders]

He didn't take many centre bounces but he certainly rucked around the ground for 10-15 mins a game for a considerable stretch.

Well he does only have a total of 14 career hitouts, spread over just 3 games

 

[jenny61_99]

Not sure what that has to do with your requirement for certainty?

Or even what it has to do with timings either.

If the deck is stacked against you, you need to take a risk to swing the odds back in your favour. If you hold the advantage then you probably want to keep doing what your doing

We've had a track record in the past of continuing with the same old plans despite not having the advantage

Tiger woods' great move when he was winning things, was he would establish a lead in the first 3 rounds and then play ultra cautious in the last round. Not making mistakes and keeping a steady hand.

That forced others to take risks, to try and overhaul him.

What wouldn't have made sense is playing safe and steady from 5th place.

Unless you were happy with a placing and not winning

I get what you are saying, absolutely. My point was that everyone throws blights risk taking around as examples of good risk taking, I'm saying he was forced to think out of the box because of circumstances and he was lucky they paid off. He wouldn't have taken those risks if he wasn't forced to. We don't have that situation. We have a settled side who have won 17 games this season. We've already beaten the swans. Why would we throw a rookie player into the mix now?

 

[mistylake]

I get what you are saying, absolutely. My point was that everyone throws blights risk taking around as examples of good risk taking, I'm saying he was forced to think out of the box because of circumstances and he was lucky they paid off. He wouldn't have taken those risks if he wasn't forced to. We don't have that situation. We have a settled side who have won 17 games this season. We've already beaten the swans. Why would we throw a rookie player into the mix now?

He will do this because some big footy posters have suggested it.

 

[Godallblighty]

Two interesting selections... albeit on the emergency list.

Seedsman selected, Henderson not selected. Conclusion? Paladin - this one's all yours.
Otten selected, for the first time in ages. Conclusion: there's still a chance that JJ might not play, and Otten appears to be the likely replacement if that happens.

You're right, these are interesting selections, but you're a little too eager to get one over Paladin - Hendo's clearly injured. But picking Seed after an ordinary game in the twos would seem to indicate they have faith in him regardless. Otten for JJ seems the only interpretation, which suggests Jenkins is not right and they're hoping he'll improve by Saturday. I don't believe they'd select him if they knew he wouldn't get up. Longmire can read the emergency list too.