Preview Semi Final: Changes vs. Hawthorn

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[1970crow]

So just doubling down on the too many defenders plan. Bold choice.

Laird is a mid now. Perfectly balanced.

 

[Moonwatcher]

Hawks changes from last time we met seem to be

Out: Day, Deer, Morrison
IN: Butler, Weddle, Jiath

 

[FR0GGY]

surely dowling would make a better sub than smith?

 

[maxlilly]

Am thinking Bond must be crook. Given the likes of Borlase and Rankine are training.

No sign of Cook. Few of the younger lads not sighted either - Draper, Edwards, etc. Guessing they’ve been told to not bother with a captains run.

This really feels like a great opportunity to get the young guys involved and training in a finals environment.

I think this is terrible development for young guys wanting to get into the team, especially a guy like Draper, not training at the moment, it would be a great learning experience to be out there, plus the other guys you named as well.

No wonder it is difficult for new guys to come up and feel part of the team.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

surely dowling would make a better sub than smith?

Said the same last week & same this week.

Better to have a midfielder to inject as moving Cumming back is a better option than moving Laird into the midfield.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Smith has been our best sub

Every sub who has been sub for a few consecutive games has struggled.

 

[1970crow]

Or Smith comes onto wing and we can move Curtin into the middle.

Who’s coming off then?

 

[cleanhands]

Am thinking Bond must be crook. Given the likes of Borlase and Rankine are training.

No sign of Cook. Few of the younger lads not sighted either - Draper, Edwards, etc. Guessing they’ve been told to not bother with a captains run.

WTF

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Bond unlucky, not all on him that Elliot had a big game.

 

[Greenfinger]

We can’t seriously be playing laird as a midfielder. We will get torched

 

[1970crow]

Id drop Smith for being selfish in the last qtr and having a shot from inside the square.

Would rather Smith for Rachele and leave Bond in

Smith’s finals experience and leadership is vital.

 

[Moonwatcher]

Smith’s finals experience and leadership is vital.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Laird will play midfield, that pretty much confirms it.

Or at least part of the rotation if he doesnt start in there

how does that confirm it?

we're going in with the same back 7 setup as we have the whole season.

If anyone else plays midfield, it will likely be Keays or Neale-Bullen ( or Curtin if someone else plays on a wing )

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

God the media is embarrassing.

edited for accuracy

 

[CrowToon]

Hope to see Laird again through the midfield a lot earlier if the starting lot don't start well.

 

[Cromulant]

how does that confirm it?

we're going in with the same back 7 setup as we have the whole season.

If anyone else plays midfield, it will likely be Keays or Neale-Bullen ( or Curtin if someone else plays on a wing )

We threw him in there Thursday, and he was probably the better one of the lot sadly.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Hope to see Laird again through the midfield a lot earlier if the starting lot don't start well.

Prefer we use Curtin.

 

[CrowToon]

Prefer we use Curtin.

I'm not against Curtin going in there and if they put him in and it goes well all the better.

But is Curtin going in there and giving us first hands?

And what do we lose around the ground when we put him central? I'd argue less than what we lose if Laird goes through the middle.

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

Sarcasm.
I get it.
You're pissed off with the negativity and support Nicks and tonight's selection, which is your right.

Your assumptions about "best team" are questionable, though; many would have Cook in front of Taylor and/or Pedlar, and even you'd have Dowling in for Smith (so would I). Others think Butts is a better choice than Murray.
No matter. It's ok to disagree
AND

We don't have the final say.

The one selection I disagree with on every level is Murphy as an Emergency.
I know that means he's unlikely to play but regardless of his SANFL form, he has proved again and again that he is not AFL Minor Round standard, let alone good enough for a Final.
Now that, is a f****n disgrace.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

MURRAY v BUTTS
Similar profile this year. Murray has been more defensive since returning. How many goals were kicked on him last week? Since he has returned?

Murray has averaged 8.6 disposals per game (below average for a key defender), 1.2 intercept marks (below average) and 6.9 spoils (elite).

Butts has averaged 6.4 disposals per match, 5.5 spoils and 1.4 intercept marks.

Both are listed at 195 cm and Butts is a year older. Murray has a bigger leap. It is a line ball decision, I believe that Muzza has more upside but it is a line ball decision.


COOK v TAYLOR v PEDLAR
Cook has spent more of his AFL time on the wing, Taylor and Pedlar have had the odd squirt as an inside mid but >95% forward.

Compared to ABN, Keays and Rachele both Pedlar and Taylor have been marginal. Taylor plays higher up the ground hence more disposals (9.3 v 7.4) but less goals (0.3 v 1.5) more goal assists (0.4 v 0.0)

Taylor is playing what used to be called the Murphy role, if he is dropped the Board will EXPLODE.

Cook has only played 3 games and has averaged 6 disposals per game.If you exclude his 1 possession masterclass in 3 quarters against Hawthorn, he has still only averaged 8.5 disposals, no goals in his other 2 matches. Cooky has averaged less than 10 disposals a game over his 30 AFL games. I know he looks great selling candy and he can do a couple of things a match that makes you think he could be anything but can you trust him in a final?


Dowling v Smith
Ideally our Sub would be an impactful inside midfielder. Dowling has played most of the season on the wing in the Twos and played mainly wing against North Melbourne. Unless someone doctored his heat map he played mainly within the arcs. This is not how our wings play, they must provide support to our defence. I would like to see Billy given a run in the AFL as an inside mid but imho, now is not the time to experiment.

Murphy
He has been selected in our 22 on three occasions to play a run with role on the oppositions rebounding small defender. It hasn’t been super successful. Strangely his stats are similar to Taylor and better than Cook.

Late change? Murphy to tag Impey?

 

[crowholder]

Hawks changes from last time we met seem to be

Out: Day, Deer, Morrison
IN: Butler, Weddle, Jiath

Day is a big out, but but Weddle is a biggish in

 

[cleanhands]

Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

MURRAY v BUTTS
Similar profile this year. Murray has been more defensive since returning. How many goals were kicked on him last week? Since he has returned?

Murray has averaged 8.6 disposals per game (below average for a key defender), 1.2 interceptions marks (below average) and 6.9 spoils (elite).

Butts has averaged 6.4 disposals per match, 5.5 spoils and 1.4 interceptions marks. Hard to believe but his stats are similar to Taylor and better than Cook

Both are listed at 195 cm and Butts is a year older. Murray has a bigger leap. It is a line ball decision, I believe that Muzza has more upside but it is a line ball decision.


COOK v TAYLOR v PEDLAR
Cook has spent more of his AFL time on the wing, Taylor and Pedlar have had the odd squirt as an inside mid but >95% forward.

Compared to ABN, Keays and Rachele both Pedlar and Taylor have been marginal. Taylor players higher up the ground hence more disposals (9.3 v 7.4) but less goals (0.3 v 1.5) more goal assists (0.4 v 0.0)

Taylor is playing what used to be called the Murphy role, if he is dropped the Board will EXPLODE).

Cook has only played 3 games and has averaged 6 disposals per game.If you exclude his 1 possession in 3 quarters against Hawthorn masterclass, he as still only averaged 8.5 disposals, no goals in his other 2 matches. Cooky has averaged less than 10 disposals a game over his 30 AFL games. I know he looks great selling candy and he can do a couple of things a match that makes you think he could be anything but can you trust him in a final?


Dowling v Smith
Ideally our Sub would be an impactful inside midfielder. Dowling has played most of th Eason on the wing in the Twos and played mainly wing against North Melbourne. Unless someone doctors his heat map he played mainly within the arcs. This is not how our wings play, they must provide support to our defence. I would like to see Billy given a run in th AFL as an inside mid but imho, now is not the time to experiment.

Murphy
He has been selected in our 22 on three occasions to play a run with role on the oppositions rebounding small defender. It hasn’t been super successful. Strangely his stats are similar to Taylor and better than Cook.

Late change? Murphy to tag Impey?

Late change? They can stick it up there ….

 

[n4sir]

Late change? Murphy to tag Impey?

 

[Danger in Texas]

Prefer we use Curtin.

If we’re struggling to win the ball (like last week), Laird would be a better option in a do or die final (as much as he shouldn’t be a usual option)

If we need footskills around the ball, Curtin’s the better option

 

[kirky]

Murphy
He has been selected in our 22 on three occasions to play a run with role on the oppositions rebounding small defender. It hasn’t been super successful. Strangely his stats are similar to Taylor and better than Cook.

Late change? Murphy to tag Impey?

Wasn’t Murphy on Impey in R14 and wasn’t that an outstanding success? Not.

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

Wasn’t Murphy on Impey in R14 and wasn’t that an outstanding success? Not.

No, Murphy was on Amon but several of our learned posters swore he was on Impey ( because Impey killed us). Have a look at the replay of that match but, but, but I’m sure someone will find a screenshot to dispute it. Then check the facts from champion data. I am happy to have a bet on this, say $500?

The threat that Hawthorn pose is that both Amon and Impey are very good at hurting the opposition if not manned up. Amon is a better kick but Impey uses run and carry. Hopefully we have a plan for Sicily ( intercept marking), Amon and Impey.