September Daily Punt - Spring is in the air

[ABitWoofy]

I declare snake season officially open



#StillDirty

 

[iluvparis]

Tosen being fave is one of the more laughable prices I've seen on a racetrack for a while. Would be happy to back all of these (in order) over him at the prices

Suavito
The United States
Miss Rose De Lago
Jameka
Mahuta

Could even be talked into Excess if Liefs whispered softly enough to me

Hoping Winx comes out so i can smash Hartnell to beat Prized Icon - expect him to leave it for dead.

 

[Jugada]

Dato looks a very interesting race. The Unites States and Suavito clearly the top 2 for me but a few bolters like The Cleaner, Signoff and Excess Knowledge could cause a blow out without much surprise

If i can get a H2H with Tosen and TUS ill be taking the latter for sure

 

[iluvparis]

The O'Shea anchor is out early this Spring. Telperion is headed back to the paddock for a spell after failing in the Run To The Rose

 

[iluvparis]

Wyong Gold Cup Day - who knows how the track will play as it currently buckets down in Sydney.

I initially liked Junoob (subsequently scratched), but was concerned that Bowman had been saved for Sacred Master. If that is Waller's best I am happy to play around his runners and have a nibble on ORBEC who was 3rd last year beaten less than a length.

 

[Main Man]

Winx unlikely to run, how anyone in Sydney can bang on about their weather is beyond me. Any danger of getting a good surface up there? They should bring Winx to Melbourne for the Makybe next week and leave her here.

 

[bombers21]

Interesting that Ollie rides Chloe In Paris for Ciaron Maher tomorrow. He hasn't ridden for Maher for quite some time.

 

[Main Man]

Tosen and The United States are the stand outs in the Dato ability wise, if either of them are in good order and ready to run well then confident one of them will win. The pace will be on which will suit them both.

Having had a good in depth look into Tosens form over the past 12 months I think he is far from finished as a horse and we have seen what Weir can do with horses that were going no good, Lucky Hussler is one in recent times, was going like a hack before Weir got him, now a G1 winner and up there with our best. All reports are that he has Tosen going well.

My biggest knocks on him are he has absolutely flopped out of the barrier at his last two starts, missing it by 2 lengths, don't think the Valley will suit him and don't know where he will be in the run, and also the question of how well he is actually going?

If he is hard in the market and the track is playing evenly then I want to be on him, same with The United States, if they cannot make ground I don't think either can win.

The rest are capable on their day but you could throw a blanket over them, particularly on their PB runs, very even bunch with the resuming stayer Tavago the potential wild card.

If its on pace and Tosen is out the door in betting I don't want to be on anything in the race.

 

[iluvparis]

Winx unlikely to run, how anyone in Sydney can bang on about their weather is beyond me. Any danger of getting a good surface up there? They should bring Winx to Melbourne for the Makybe next week and leave her here.

It's a joke - it is EASILY the worst weather of any city in the world I've lived for an extended period of time.

 

[iluvparis]

The problem with Tosen is he is fave not double figures. No one questions his ability - most just think he is too short given all the unknowns - which is entirely fair enough in my opinion. Insane that he is shorter in the betting than TUS for example.

If he wins tomorrow you can just keep backing him until Winx shows up but way too many doubts for me to back him as fave in this.

I like the solid fence sit from Gator in Best Bets - 'Tosen Stardom goes in everything' - except his top 4 apparently

 

[Main Man]

Interesting that Ollie rides Chloe In Paris for Ciaron Maher tomorrow. He hasn't ridden for Maher for quite some time.

I rate her as a horse but first up here off a long break with 1 soft trial, if she wins she is better than I thought.

Heatherly is the one I want to be on, she went to a high level last campaign, I had her rating only about 0.5 lengths of Lankan Rupees winning mark in the Rubiton of 14, she was backed off the map in the Oakleigh Plate and nabbed late off a hot speed.

I liked her return win, presented soft and left in front a long way out but held on, will be fitter now and actually has a fitness edge on most of her rivals, outside barrier is good for her, she can come across in her own time with 400M to the first turn.

If she improves at all she should be hard to beat, think Sheidel is the threat.

 

[Main Man]

The problem with Tosen is he is fave not double figures. No one questions his ability - most just think he is too short given all the unknowns - which is entirely fair enough in my opinion. Insane that he is shorter in the betting than TUS for example.

If he wins tomorrow you can just keep backing him until Winx shows up but way too many doubts for me to back him as fave in this.

I like the solid fence sit from Gator in Best Bets - 'Tosen Stardom goes in everything' - except his top 4 apparently

I just think the bookies are keeping him safe because they have no idea either, they don't want to put him up at a big price and get smacked in case he is flying.

This way if he is off the map and wins then they have limited the damage to an extent.

 

[FallingLiefs]

The problem with Tosen is he is fave not double figures. No one questions his ability - most just think he is too short given all the unknowns - which is entirely fair enough in my opinion. Insane that he is shorter in the betting than TUS for example.

If he wins tomorrow you can just keep backing him until Winx shows up but way too many doubts for me to back him as fave in this.

I like the solid fence sit from Gator in Best Bets - 'Tosen Stardom goes in everything' - except his top 4 apparently

even on TS's last prep here i have him about $18-$24. bit of weir magic i dragged him down to $13.

as far as i'm concerned if theres a genuine pace TUS or EK win. EK is apparently going very, very well. it's a genuine raffle with only quality horses needing genuine tempo and are first up.

 

[iluvparis]

even on TS's last prep here i have him about $18-$24. bit of weir magic i dragged him down to $13.

as far as i'm concerned if theres a genuine pace TUS or EK win. EK is apparently going very, very well. it's a genuine raffle with only quality horses needing genuine tempo and are first up.

6 572217x20x EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (GB) Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Ryan Maloney (late alt) 4 59kg 106

I lol'd

How much did you adjust your EK's price for given your massive hard on for him He better be going well because on exposed form he needs a lot to run below par to win.

 

[iluvparis]

Not sure why people are being so closed minded about the Data to be honest. Make no mistake it is a complete lottery and lots of horses that are being written off are genuine winning chances. People seem to be closing their eyes and putting up their homer picks. I think 7 or 8 of them are winning chances.

 

[Main Man]

Not sure why people are being so closed minded about the Data to be honest. Make no mistake it is a complete lottery and lots of horses that are being written off are genuine winning chances. People seem to be closing their eyes and putting up their homer picks. I think 7 or 8 of them are winning chances.

Thats the point though, I rate TUS and TS the best horses in it, but if either of them present soft, are out the door in betting or have none become of bias then as I said throw a blanket over them, I don't think you can confidently separate any of them out of the PB which is the race most of them come through.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Not sure why people are being so closed minded about the Data to be honest. Make no mistake it is a complete lottery and lots of horses that are being written off are genuine winning chances. People seem to be closing their eyes and putting up their homer picks. I think 7 or 8 of them are winning chances.

i think i only have two under double figures TUS and Jameka, agreed its a genuine raffle. Signoff off that disastrous adelaide run is one above 35:1. all the rest in that 10-35 range.

6 572217x20x EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (GB) Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Ryan Maloney (late alt) 4 59kg 106

I lol'd

How much did you adjust your EK's price for given your massive hard on for him He better be going well because on exposed form he needs a lot to run below par to win.

actually wasn't from Gai, seen 2-3 things so far that point towards his tuesday gallop at MV being very good and also fit which i think is public information from Bott.

-1.5L for EK bias. TUS is pretty consistent but EK is just hard to find.

 

[iluvparis]

EK's not hard to find mate if you know his true ability - he just ain't as good as you think

And any info coming out about a horse from that stable is a complete ignore job IMHO - no matter where you find it.

 

[FallingLiefs]

EK's not hard to find mate if you know his true ability - he just ain't as good as you think

And any info coming out about a horse from that stable is a complete ignore job IMHO - no matter where you find it.

trackwork info wasn't from the stable and i've seen how fit he is without that hype article from when he arrived in Melbourne.

 

[Main Man]

Chloe in Paris is out tomorrow apparently, even more confident on Heatherly now, 1 less horse there generating pace.

 

[iluvparis]

trackwork info wasn't from the stable and i've seen how fit he is without that hype article from when he arrived in Melbourne.

Full Disclosure

Said similar about him before the Gold Coast when he went ordinary?

 

[FallingLiefs]

Full Disclosure

Said similar about him before the Gold Coast when he went ordinary?

don't remember him being well or looking good at trackwork at gold coast, that was purely on his last run being too good for them. was a noted drifter and i expected him to tighten so i'm prepared to wipe that one out. problem is he has really only shown great ability twice and good enough ability to win this once before that. good news is all 3 are in his last 5 starts.

also a few of his early runs said he could go to a higher level but you would say he is just a 2 miler.

 

[iluvparis]

I would say he's just not that good and nothing in his profile suggests he is capable of winning a race like this. You just think he has some mythical ability that no one else sees. As a 7yo he is fully exposed to me.

 

[bombers21]

Keen Array looks a good bet at each way odds

 

[FallingLiefs]

I would say he's just not that good and nothing in his profile suggests he is capable of winning a race like this. You just think he has some mythical ability that no one else sees. As a 7yo he is fully exposed to me.

there is some sparse WFA form around It's Somewhat. who's is an ok horse at a mile no more. realistically i have him a 1/12 chance to repeat that run and that run would win.