Media SFA Ladder Predictor

[MWPP]

With just two rounds remaining in the home-and-away season, the finals race is beginning to tighten- but it’s still far from settled. Positions inside the eight remain volatile, percentage may yet become decisive, and a handful of results over the next fortnight could completely reshape both the finals bracket and the minor premiership race. Some clubs are beginning to consolidate their place in the premiership window, while others are still trying to push themselves onto the right side of the historical profile before finals arrive.

Using the full season’s squiggle data through Round 13 (including scoring rates, defensive trends, balance profiles and historical premiership comparisons) we have put together a ladder predictor to see how the run home might unfold. It’s obviously not intended as a certainty model; games in this league still sit close to 50/50. But the squiggle does provide an interesting structural lens for where teams currently sit, which sides project strongly, and which contenders may still carry underlying statistical vulnerabilities despite strong ladder positions.

For simplicity, projected scores have been standardised around a baseline losing score of 100, allowing the focus to stay on expected margins rather than fake score precision. Feel free to download the ladder predictor link below and then play around with your own permutations before posting your own predicted ladders.

Ladder Predictor

 

[Jabba73]

Pretty sure we wont be allowed to win the wooden spoon again.

We were getting quite the collection

 

[MWPP]

CHAOS LADDER

This is how the ladder looks if every remaining result is flipped against the above Squiggle predictions- essentially a full alternate universe where every projected winner loses instead. In other words: a chaos ladder. Given how compressed the ladder still is, it doesn’t actually take many upsets to completely reshape the season. A couple of unexpected results could swing home finals, percentage positions, elimination matchups, or even the minor premiership itself. The gap between “contender” and “scrambling to survive” is still remarkably thin.

 

[ClarkeM]

MWPP have you ever heard of the Beez trophy? It's this popularity contest and usually it gets voted on by simpletons who struggle to remember more than 11 names but in short, they rank up to 20 posters.

I reckon you'd be in for a chance. You should campaign for it.

 

[Jabba73]

MWPP have you ever heard of the Beez trophy? It's this popularity contest and usually it gets voted on by simpletons who struggle to remember more than 11 names but in short, they rank up to 20 posters.

I reckon you'd be in for a chance. You should campaign for it.

 

[The Half Back]

MWPP have you ever heard of the Beez trophy? It's this popularity contest and usually it gets voted on by simpletons who struggle to remember more than 11 names but in short, they rank up to 20 posters.

I reckon you'd be in for a chance. You should campaign for it.

Wait, you have to actually campaign for it? Someone should have told me that 4 months ago

 

[ClarkeM]

Wait, you have to actually campaign for it? Someone should have told me that 4 months ago

I'll vote for you if you want me to?

 

[The Half Back]

I'll vote for you if you want me to?

I’ve wasted a lot of hours at work for nothing if you don’t…

 

[ClarkeM]

I’ve wasted a lot of hours at work for nothing if you don’t…

I’ll slot you into my top 6.

 

[MWPP]

UPDATED LADDER PREDICTOR

Using the current ladder predictor, with the squiggle projections used as the underlying tips, produces a relatively stable-looking top end. The Dragons are projected to finish minor premiers at 11-3, while the Wonders, Hawks and Bears all land on 10 wins. The Gumbies and Warriors are forecast to round out the top six, although the middle pack remains volatile enough that a single upset could still reshuffle several finishing positions.

As always, this is more for fun than certainty, but it provides an interesting snapshot of how the final week could unfold if current form lines broadly hold. Feel free to download it, plug in your own tips and margins, and see how different permutations reshape the final ladder.

 

[MWPP]

UPDATED CHAOS LADDER PREDICTOR

For comparison, this is what the ladder looks like if every remaining result is flipped from the original squiggle projection resulting in a full “chaos ladder” built entirely on upsets. The top end compresses dramatically, the finals race becomes almost completely unstable, and several sides that looked structurally safe suddenly become vulnerable. It’s does highlight how little margin for error still exists with only a handful of games remaining. One upset might not break the ladder- but a chaotic week like the weekend just gone absolutely could.

 

[MWPP]

There are a few crucial games this weekend

• Coney Island Warriors vs Gumbies FFC at Van Cortlandt Park - The Warriors take 4th if they win. The Bears will be watching nervously.
• Fighting Furies vs Wonders FFC at rfctigerarmy's hippodrome - The Furies must win to guarantee that they remain in the top 8. The teams around them will be watching this interest. If the Furies lose they are very likely eliminated if the Demons win. A Furies loss also makes the Demons' pathway to the finals easier since the Demons have a much superior %.
• Ophidian Old Boys vs Roys FFC at Spotswood Oval MOTR - A finals-decider. Again, the teams around them will be watching this with interest. An unlikely draw improves the chances of the teams around them.
• Sin City Swamprats vs Mount Buller Demons at The Underground Stadium -The Demons must win to keep their finals' chances alive

I just played around with various margins and results using the ladder predictor and:

• If Furies and Roys win, Demons must win and chase the Roys’ % to qualify. Even if the Roys win by just 1 point, the Demons would need to win by about 110 points to make up the % difference. A tough ask but not impossible.
• If Furies and Old Boys win, Demons must win and chase Old Boys’ % to qualify. This % gap is much easier to bridge. It can happen if the Old Boys win by 10/Demons win by 30, Old Boys win by 20/Demons win by 40 etc ie the Demons can make up the % gap if they win by an extra 20 points compared to the Old Boys' win.

 

[ClarkeM]

There are a few crucial games this weekend

• Coney Island Warriors vs Gumbies FFC at Van Cortlandt Park - The Warriors take 4th if they win. The Bears will be watching nervously.
• Fighting Furies vs Wonders FFC at rfctigerarmy's hippodrome - The Furies must win to guarantee that they remain in the top 8. The teams around them will be watching this interest. If the Furies lose they are very likely eliminated if the Demons win. A Furies loss also makes the Demons' pathway to the finals easier since the Demons have a much superior %.
• Ophidian Old Boys vs Roys FFC at Spotswood Oval MOTR - A finals-decider. Again, the teams around them will be watching this with interest. An unlikely draw improves the chances of the teams around them.
• Sin City Swamprats vs Mount Buller Demons at The Underground Stadium -The Demons must win to keep their finals' chances alive

I just played around with various margins and results using the ladder predictor and:

• If Furies and Roys win, Demons must win and chase the Roys’ % to qualify. Even if the Roys win by just 1 point, the Demons would need to win by about 110 points to make up the % difference. A tough ask but not impossible.
• If Furies and Old Boys win, Demons must win and chase Old Boys’ % to qualify. This % gap is much easier to bridge. It can happen if the Old Boys win by 10/Demons win by 30, Old Boys win by 20/Demons win by 40 etc ie the Demons can make up the % gap if they win by an extra 20 points compared to the Old Boys' win.

Headless you’re going to have to barrack for the Wonders this weekend, that’s not going to feel nice

 

[nahnah]

I played 11 of the finest games for the wonders, they owe me this, beat those fluorescent Fcuks

 

[nahnah]

I played 11 of the finest games for the wonders, they owe me this, beat those fluorescent Fcuks

Wosh filter is not working

 

[Wosh]

Wosh filter is not working

This happened to me yesterday too.
****s

Or did we both just typo?

 

[nahnah]

This happened to me yesterday too.
****s

Or did we both just typo?

Filter error

 

[Wosh]

Filter error

Seems to be random. Lets just enjoy it while it lasts