Shame on us: Do we have literally the worst development of players in the league?

JimmyBeerCans

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Teekray! You prove my point! This is exactly the sort of rubbish statistic that gets wheeled out ad nauseam here on Bigfooty.

Come back with figures on how many "top line key forwards" have premiership clubs like Hawthorn, Richmond, Collingwood, and the Swans, developed since Warren's time. Never mind the likes of Fremantle, Carlton, Essendon, St Kilda etc.

The figures for ruckmen are even worse with many of these clubs! VERY few clubs develop ruckmen from draft to stars. The very few exceptions are the Grundy-type first round picks, and quality talent that falls though the cracks. We have one of those in Hayes, who will be a superstar IMO ... But hey, statistically Port cant develop players! So sorry Hayes, statistics say you are doomed!

I get it that people are angry, but if you are going to use statistics to back up arguments that are flawed, then do it properly! Otherwise they remain "Lies, damned lies, and statistics."
We haven't developed a high quality KPF since Warren or a quality ruck since Lade, Primus & Brogan you can spin it anyway you like but no damned lies there.
 

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simba_

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we have been regressing as a club so how can we develop players? our coaches are not elite so how can they instil elite traits? haven't all of our junior sides been replaced with 'next gen academies' too? do we have any kids teams or does it start with reserves or something?

the club has barely been able to catch its breath after joining the league. the sole purpose of existing in the AFL was to win the flag until we did. there has been little progression since and instead a lot of change and regression.
 

Andre

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Teekray! You prove my point! This is exactly the sort of rubbish statistic that gets wheeled out ad nauseam here on Bigfooty.

Come back with figures on how many "top line key forwards" have premiership clubs like Hawthorn, Richmond, Collingwood, and the Swans, developed since Warren's time. Never mind the likes of Fremantle, Carlton, Essendon, St Kilda etc. I cant think of any that stand out, other than those they traded in!
We're not talking superstars here. A Dixon tier KPF, rather than a Warren, Buddy or Reiwoldt (either). As Butters Made Me Do It noted we are cowards. Tall forwards you are going to have more busts then successes, but to have a good chance of success you have to draft early (as we did with Marshall, for the rarity).

Our recruiters / list managers would rather get the praise for 10 successful smalls picked early, then cop potential grief for going 5 successful smalls, 2 successful talls and 3 talls that were complete busts. They are afraid of blow back on "Why did you pick that spud early! We could have had <insert successful midfielder>! You should be sacked!". That we have no direction from higher up to do these picks and you can take the inevitable failures without it being a risk to your job (unless you are grabbing a Mitch Harvey at pick #5 type situation) is yet another mark of failure by the club.
 

TeeKray

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Teekray! You prove my point! This is exactly the sort of rubbish statistic that gets wheeled out ad nauseam here on Bigfooty.

Come back with figures on how many "top line key forwards" have premiership clubs like Hawthorn, Richmond, Collingwood, and the Swans, developed since Warren's time. Never mind the likes of Fremantle, Carlton, Essendon, St Kilda etc. I cant think of any that stand out, other than those they traded in!

The figures for ruckmen are even worse with many of these clubs! VERY few clubs develop ruckmen from draft to stars. The very few exceptions are the Grundy-type first round picks, and quality talent that falls though the cracks. We have one of those in Hayes, who will be a superstar IMO, and another rookie pick in Ladhams who is also heading in that direction... But hey, statistically Port cant develop players! So sorry guys, statistics say you are doomed!

I get it that people are angry, but if you are going to use statistics to back up arguments that are flawed, then do it properly! Otherwise they remain "Lies, damned lies, and statistics."
The best KPF we have drafted and developed since Tredrea is Toby Thurstans. The best ruckman we have drafted and developed since Brogan is Matthew Lobbe. At any given time there would be at least 20 better KPFs running around in the AFL than Toby Thurstans and at least 20 ruckmen running around in the AFL better than Matthew Lobbe.

Now, it's not all doom and gloom. We've had some recent success trading in these players from other clubs - Schulz, Ryder and to a lesser extent Dixon have all been good players for us and actually improved in their time at Port. But we still seem to lack the patience to actually draft and develop these players in one hit. I've got high hopes for Ladhams to buck this trend. Developing KPFs still appear thin on the ground though.
 

Lawnchair Larry

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Be careful with Toby Thurstans.
During the minor rounds he was close to awful, but his performances during finals was exemplary.
I will go so far as to say he was he was our best player in the 2007 "men vs boys" GF debacle.
 

Tibbs

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We haven't developed a high quality KPF since Warren or a quality ruck since Lade, Primus & Brogan you can spin it anyway you like but no damned lies there.
Yeah, so? ... What exactly is your point, because it means bugger all!

The very same stat applies to many sides including the likes of numerous premiership sides that just "buy" talent from other clubs. We have done the same, bringing in Schulz, Dixon, Ryder et-al. Our failure to convert that into club success lies elsewhere!
 
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Tibbs

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We're not talking superstars here. A Dixon tier KPF, rather than a Warren, Buddy or Reiwoldt (either). As Butters Made Me Do It noted we are cowards. Tall forwards you are going to have more busts then successes, but to have a good chance of success you have to draft early (as we did with Marshall, for the rarity).

Our recruiters / list managers would rather get the praise for 10 successful smalls picked early, then cop potential grief for going 5 successful smalls, 2 successful talls and 3 talls that were complete busts. They are afraid of blow back on "Why did you pick that spud early! We could have had <insert successful midfielder>! You should be sacked!". That we have no direction from higher up to do these picks and you can take the inevitable failures without it being a risk to your job (unless you are grabbing a Mitch Harvey at pick #5 type situation) is yet another mark of failure by the club.
Firstly, thats not the argument here! You are off on a royal tangent! This is a thread about developing our players we draft in. The argument presented was that Port has a record of failure when it comes to developing tall KP players brought in from the draft. The facts are that many other clubs have a similar record. The star KP players they do have, are often traded in from other clubs.

STAR tall players are damned hard to come by. Drafting them from the national draft is a lottery, and Port have fared no worse than most.

If you want to rave on about list management, drafting strategies, and the like, that is a different matter. We clearly have had a strategy of not going after talls in the national lottery, seeking rather to trade them in. Right or wrong, debate that tactic in a different thread
 

NEGAN

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Yeah, so? ... What exactly is your point, because it means bugger all!

The very same stat applies to many sides including the likes of numerous premiership sides that just "buy" talent from other clubs. We have done the same, bringing in Schulz, Dixon, Ryder et-al. Our failure to convert that into club success lies elsewhere!
I kind of agree, some of the club's have been kissed on the penie though, WCE and Geelong come to mind. Hawks previous to that.

Collingwood been fairly successful with developing kpps recently....and are probably an outlier and not the norm
 

El_Scorcho

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Teekray! You prove my point! This is exactly the sort of rubbish statistic that gets wheeled out ad nauseam here on Bigfooty.

Come back with figures on how many "top line key forwards" have premiership clubs like Hawthorn, Richmond, Collingwood, and the Swans, developed since Warren's time. Never mind the likes of Fremantle, Carlton, Essendon, St Kilda etc. I cant think of any that stand out, other than those they traded in!

The figures for ruckmen are even worse with many of these clubs! VERY few clubs develop ruckmen from draft to stars. The very few exceptions are the Grundy-type first round picks, and quality talent that falls though the cracks. We have one of those in Hayes, who will be a superstar IMO, and another rookie pick in Ladhams who is also heading in that direction... But hey, statistically Port cant develop players! So sorry guys, statistics say you are doomed!

I get it that people are angry, but if you are going to use statistics to back up arguments that are flawed, then do it properly! Otherwise they remain "Lies, damned lies, and statistics."
You're missing an important point.

Other clubs might trade for players and then turn them into superstars, but we're just bringing in already developed players.

It's not like Adelaide taking Jacobs from Carlton and making him a long term gun, or Hawthorn poaching a young Gunston and turning a promising youngster into a star, or West Coast making lemonade out of losing Judd by bringing in a 20yo, 21 gamer Kennedy.

The only one we have that comes close to this is Schulz, but he was still a 24yo 70 gamer who came on under Primus.

We're taking well established players in their mid 20s. And we're paying a lot more to get them over here. We gave up first round picks for Dixon and Ryder. Imagine if we'd just been able to develop our own players and had 2 more 23yo first rounders on our list going into 2020.

You're right that plenty of talls change clubs before they really come on, but you're missing the point that none of them come on at Port Adelaide.
 

El_Scorcho

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Yeah, so? ... What exactly is your point, because it means bugger all!

The very same stat applies to many sides including the likes of numerous premiership sides that just "buy" talent from other clubs. We have done the same, bringing in Schulz, Dixon, Ryder et-al. Our failure to convert that into club success lies elsewhere!
It's a lot more expensive to buy already developed players than it is to develop our own. If we're trading away first rounders for AFL quality talls every second year, we're missing out on the depth of top end talent you need to be successful.
 

Andre

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It's a lot more expensive to buy already developed players than it is to develop our own. If we're trading away first rounders for AFL quality talls every second year, we're missing out on the depth of top end talent you need to be successful.
Ruckman is the list position you can let others develop, given how long they take and how hit and miss. Flankers I'd argue you can similarly look at trading in, rather than drafting, but that's for the different reason of they are a dime a dozen and they are generally icing players not the core of a team, so don't overly clutter the list with them and hold for too long (as Port have done with both too many and too long held in the last decade). Talls - get lots and let develop. We've been so arse about as a club. :huh:
 
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Tibbs

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You're missing an important point.

Other clubs might trade for players and then turn them into superstars, but we're just bringing in already developed players.

It's not like Adelaide taking Jacobs from Carlton and making him a long term gun, or Hawthorn poaching a young Gunston and turning a promising youngster into a star, or West Coast making lemonade out of losing Judd by bringing in a 20yo, 21 gamer Kennedy.

The only one we have that comes close to this is Schulz, but he was still a 24yo 70 gamer who came on under Primus.

We're taking well established players in their mid 20s. And we're paying a lot more to get them over here. We gave up first round picks for Dixon and Ryder. Imagine if we'd just been able to develop our own players and had 2 more 23yo first rounders on our list going into 2020.

You're right that plenty of talls change clubs before they really come on, but you're missing the point that none of them come on at Port Adelaide.
What great forwards or rucks have Sydney developed? Can include clubs like Freo - what have they done besides Pavlich? There are more like that. You mention Hawthorn as an example of developing Gunston into a star, what is the criteria though? He comes with great potential into a star-studded side that has master-coach Clarkson on the helm and is bankrolled to the hilt. Just about guaranteed.

Port has had some really bad luck with Dixon & Ryder particularly (Ryder's situation should have been foreseen). But these guys have still done a good job. Young draftees in Frampton, Howard, etc, havent been a failure either. They have come on well, Howard esp so. Our current crop of Ladhams & Hayes are showing a great development curve.

Developing them as players wasnt the issue, it has been how they have been used. Selection policy has been ridiculous & inconsistent. Our forward setup has been a joke, & Ken's overall gameplan(s) a failure. The team as a whole has played hot & cold. BOE and management have got lost, and our head-coach has become a meme! To target KP player development as a/the problem is flawed IMO.

Get rid of Ken, fix our dysfunctional management, and get the players playing as a team under a better coach .... And we wouldnt be having this discussion.
 

El_Scorcho

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What great forwards or rucks have Sydney developed? Can include clubs like Freo - what have they done besides Pavlich? There are more like that. You mention Hawthorn as an example of developing Gunston into a star, what is the criteria though? He comes with great potential into a star-studded side that has master-coach Clarkson on the helm and is bankrolled to the hilt. Just about guaranteed.

Port has had some really bad luck with Dixon & Ryder particularly (Ryder's situation should have been foreseen). But these guys have still done a good job. Young draftees in Frampton, Howard, etc, havent been a failure either. They have come on well, Howard esp so. Our current crop of Ladhams & Hayes are showing a great development curve.

Developing them as players wasnt the issue, it has been how they have been used. Selection policy has been ridiculous & inconsistent. Our forward setup has been a joke, & Ken's overall gameplan(s) a failure. The team as a whole has played hot & cold. BOE and management have got lost, and our head-coach has become a meme! To target KP player development as a/the problem is flawed IMO.

Get rid of Ken, fix our dysfunctional management, and get the players playing as a team under a better coach .... And we wouldnt be having this discussion.
If you're arguing that getting rid of Hinkley will fix a lot of these issues, I totally agree.

Hinkley doesn't value KPF as a position so he's not going to persist with a developing tall long enough to effectively develop them, and he's not going to foster a style that allows them to shine. This is a huge part of our problem.

Freo have been a poor club and have had scoring issues for the entire Lyon era. Sydney leveraged their larger salary cap to overpay to recruit key star key forwards.

Plenty of other clubs have been able to do this better than us. It's not just stars. We could survive without a star KPF, but you have to have guys who can hold their own.

Lauding Marshall and Ladhams as prospects is fine, but we've heard it with plenty of previous talented prospects who didn't make it.
 

Macca19

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"Lies, damned lies, and statistics." Whether it was Mark Twain, or Benjamin Disraeli, or whoever ... It is such a truism!

So statistically, Port struggle to develop "talls." To make the statistical formula more complex, we add in another factor - "stringbean" talls. Lets make it even more complex - "Stringbean" talls taken with "late picks."

So by giving a list of 8 talls taken later in the draft, supposedly proves that Port has failed in developing talls players! Really? Three of those mentioned arguably have developed well, Dougal Howard, traded for 1st round pick & on big moola to the Saints. Frampton targeted with a multi-year contract. Austin has some flaws in his game, but showed heaps, sadly however has struggled with injury - The only fault possibly was that we didnt keep/want them. The rest were duds.

If people really want to come up with statistics to back up this kind of statement, then you need to at a minimum, provide similar statistics for each club as a comparison! I would hazard a guess that Port are just average in this. That in fact, just about every club has similar challenges developing talls, especially "Stringbean talls taken with late picks."

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics."
I often think this board goes overboard on hyperbole, but are you really defending our development of KPPs? If it's not league worst, it wouldn't be far off.
 

Macca19

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What great forwards or rucks have Sydney developed? Can include clubs like Freo - what have they done besides Pavlich? There are more like that. You mention Hawthorn as an example of developing Gunston into a star, what is the criteria though? He comes with great potential into a star-studded side that has master-coach Clarkson on the helm and is bankrolled to the hilt. Just about guaranteed.

Port has had some really bad luck with Dixon & Ryder particularly (Ryder's situation should have been foreseen). But these guys have still done a good job. Young draftees in Frampton, Howard, etc, havent been a failure either. They have come on well, Howard esp so. Our current crop of Ladhams & Hayes are showing a great development curve.

Developing them as players wasnt the issue, it has been how they have been used. Selection policy has been ridiculous & inconsistent. Our forward setup has been a joke, & Ken's overall gameplan(s) a failure. The team as a whole has played hot & cold. BOE and management have got lost, and our head-coach has become a meme! To target KP player development as a/the problem is flawed IMO.

Get rid of Ken, fix our dysfunctional management, and get the players playing as a team under a better coach .... And we wouldnt be having this discussion.
Frampton played 3 games in 5 years

The club actively traded away Howard

These are not examples of developing talls. Clurey is an example.
 

El_Scorcho

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Howard is a great example of how we make stupid development decisions. Good KPF prospect, we moved him down back for 2 years, let him settle, and then moved him into a non-functional forward line and traded him when he said he preferred defence.
 

Macca19

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Come back with figures on how many "top line key forwards" have premiership clubs like Hawthorn, Richmond, Collingwood, and the Swans, developed since Warren's time. Never mind the likes of Fremantle, Carlton, Essendon, St Kilda etc. I cant think of any that stand out, other than those they traded in!
It doesn't need to be top line key forwards. Top line key forwards are rare, but even still, Hawthorn developed Gunston into an All Australian, Richmond drafted and developed Riewoldt into a likely HOFer, Collingwood drafted and developed Cloke into an All Australian. Sydney are a different circumstance and seem hell bent on trading in gun KPF's to help with marketing purproses.

Even just bog standard KPF's, these clubs have developed some. Someone like a Cox or Vickery. Ordinary players but they've still kicked 20 goals in a year. Vickery 30 once. The last player we drafted that kicked 20 goals in a year was Westhoff, who we drafted 13 years ago.

I'd rather not compare ourselves with perennial losers to be honest, but thats the company we keep at the moment. And even then, Essendon got some alright service out of Mitch Brown, Josh Bruce was recruited as a FB and they turned him into a 40 goal a year goalkicker.

Ruck is a similar story.

Now i'm totally against the never ending bashing of the club. But our lack of tall development is something that has been an issue for an exceptionally long time. There is no point putting our head in the sand.
 

Tibbs

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It doesn't need to be top line key forwards....
Well yes it does mate ... You have come in on the back end of this. My posts were in reference to an earlier post re Port being incapable of developing a "top line key forward with any draft pick since Warren Tredrea." So that is what this has been about! it implies that we have a development issue. I dont think we have. And you confirmed that by saying "Top line key forwards are rare."

Indeed they are, and Port has no worse record than most in this regard.

What Port has been guilty of is not being proactive in wanting to draft and develop them. Port (Ken) has chosen to focus on drafting inside bulls, speed, and smalls in general. They seem to have a deliberate policy of not looking for the earliest & best tall prospects in the draft, but rather picking some as Hail Mary picks later on, and trading in from other clubs. As mentioned, Port are not alone in doing this.

No I am not defending them ... I am not going to bash them either, but clearly we have issues. Issues of game plan, coaching, team cohesion, forward structure, and the like. I still maintain that with a better coach & gameplan, the Port teams of the last five years could have contended for a premiership. Our talls havent been the issue, its how we used (or misused) the ones we have that is.
 

Macca19

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Well yes it does mate ... You have come in on the back end of this. My posts were in reference to an earlier post re Port being incapable of developing a "top line key forward with any draft pick since Warren Tredrea." So that is what this has been about! it implies that we have a development issue. I dont think we have. And you confirmed that by saying "Top line key forwards are rare."

Indeed they are, and Port has no worse record than most in this regard.

What Port has been guilty of is not being proactive in wanting to draft and develop them. Port (Ken) has chosen to focus on drafting inside bulls, speed, and smalls in general. They seem to have a deliberate policy of not looking for the earliest & best tall prospects in the draft, but rather picking some as Hail Mary picks later on, and trading in from other clubs. As mentioned, Port are not alone in doing this.

No I am not defending them ... I am not going to bash them either, but clearly we have issues. Issues of game plan, coaching, team cohesion, forward structure, and the like. I still maintain that with a better coach & gameplan, the Port teams of the last five years could have contended for a premiership. Our talls havent been the issue, its how we used (or misused) the ones we have that is.
My point is that we havent just failed to draft and develop a topline key forward, we havent drafted and developed even a competent key forward since 2006.
 

Powerage

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Edited...
I was originally going to include Danyle Pearce. Truth be told he was quite a serviceable player for us and obviously very good in 2007. Whenever I think of him though a wave of disappointment comes over me because he could, he should have been so much more than he was. His aversion to body contact made Motlop look like Luke Hodge.

I was talking specifically about stringbeans (tall, skinny kids) with late picks. All of those players have been great pick ups, but not the type of player i am referring to.

Port has really struggled with their tall KPP (i don't class Jonas as a tall) and i don't know if the failure is the talent identification, the development or where the blame lies. We have got players in, and they have gone backwards!

Butcher is a classic example. Go and have a look at his U/18 year, he was slotting them from everywhere! He was definitely worth the early pick but then he regressed when he got to the club! From there, it has been a debacle and since 2009, these players have come and gone:

John Butcher
Daniel Stewart
Matt Westhoff
Mason Shaw
Mitch Harvey
Dougal Howard
Logan Austin
Billy Frampton

So is this recruiting, identification or development, or all three? Certainly frustrating to watch. Hopefully Buzza can be the next mildly successful recruit we get from another side...
Fair enough. We don't do well with talls, particularly during the Hinkley era. It's probably a combination of the things you mentioned.

Looking around the league, however, most of the successful key forwards were taken as top 10 picks. So there is that. We have had very few picks in the top 10 and when we have Butcher has been the only tall forward we have selected this decade. There is also Marshall slightly and the jury is out on him. Taking a tall with an early pick is chancy because they can be hit or miss even if they are high draft picks but also, like ruckmen, you know they will take a few years before they begin to fulfil their potential.

This is where three scenarios, in particular, can set up a club. Father/son picks, priority picks and expansion team concession picks. These scenarios have assisted clubs lucky enough to have them to be bolder about picking young talls. It's easier to pick a tall when you also have another early pick that you can use on what is probably considered a 'sure thing' such as a pacy skilled midfielder. Looking back over the past 20 years you have Hawthorn getting Franklin AND Roughead, St Kilda getting Riewolt, Geelong getting Hawkins as a father/son pick up, Gold Coast get Lynch and Dixon, GWS getting like, ******* everyone else. Collingwood got Travis Cloke. In all cases, those teams received a tremendous advantage as a result for several years at least.

We have some f/s's in our future which should help although they are not the advantage they once were to the club. We are unlikely to get any priority picks but who knows. Otherwise, as Ken says, we will have to be bold and pick the tall talent early in the draft. It's not often that ready-made tall forwards get traded between clubs, and rare that they come to SA. Luk, of course, is one to watch.
 

Tibbs

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My point is that we havent just failed to draft and develop a topline key forward, we havent drafted and developed even a competent key forward since 2006.
I am not disagreeing with you. Its semantics. I know, but my point is that like a number of other clubs we chose not to make it a focus. They have chosen to trade in the likes of Schulz, Dixon, Ryder over the last 10 years, while using later picks to find a smokey as backup.

My point also is that this only stands out as being an issue because Port has failed in every other facet. We have failed in management, coaches, poor game plan, poor forward structure. We have made deleterious decisions, like appointing co-captains, that have eroded the fabric of the club.

IMO this is not as big an issue as some bang on about here. Correct the other issues, and this team could have, and can become anything.
 

Shaucob_Burjan

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It does help if coaches and list management are on the same page.

It's a common theme to bury young players in the SANFL to play old blokes under Ken.

Primus for all his flaws was honest from the get go about getting games into the younger players, pissed off vets in the process and then got fired but then Hinkley came in and reaped the benefits.

Fwiw in a way I don't really count AFL ready draftees ie early year Wines, Wingard, Rozee, Durrsma as player development.
 

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