List Mgmt. Should I stay or should I go now? End of season list management discussion (now continued for 2020)

[Mercy Seat]

One thing I've been toying with over the last few days - especially with all the talk of how poor our list is at the moment - is I'd love someone to explain to me why we were so bloody good at the end of last year and even the first month of this year. We had essentially the same team and added a fit Impey, a fit Mitchell, a fitter Wingard, a fitter Scully, Frost, Patton etc. We didn't really lose anyone over the off-season and most of the over 28s didn't really feature in last years (and this years) B&F results so I don't think any decrease in their output really effected us this year more than last.

For me, I don't think our list is in as bad a shape as many think, I think our game plan wasn't the fit for us this year and for whatever reason I really think hub life had a bigger effect on us that others (for whatever reason).

I know Lewis had an injury-effected year, TOB wasn't as impactful, McEvoy was replaced with a battling Ceglar, but for the life of me I can't see why we were so good and then weren't. A few kids were down perhaps as well.

Obviously I think we need to keep adding great talent to the list over the next few years, but I can't see why we wouldn't have been doing that anyway even if our form from the first month continued.

IMO we had a better, fitter, healthier team on paper this year, came in with a great end to 2019, started really well this year. Are we really as bad as many are saying?

What am I missing?



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All signs point to our boys really hating hub life. We were the only ones who didn't get to experience the QL hub which by all reports was infinitely better than NSW and the Barossa. Particularly Adelaide where there was no wifi, nothing to do and a 2 hour walk to get a coffee at the shops. That combined with an older list of whom there were a lot of players separated from kids / families and just hating it.

Further to that, if you look at our fixture, it was the worst in the comp by a mile. One home game all year, and constant games against sides coming off an extra 4-5 day break.

That all being said, I think without covid, we probably settled around 6-10 in the comp, and zero chance of any impact of finals, so maybe this year will eventually be looked at as a blessing with the opportunity for higher draft picks and moving on some older players.

 

[KermitJagger]

All signs point to our boys really hating hub life. We were the only ones who didn't get to experience the QL hub which by all reports was infinitely better than NSW and the Barossa. Particularly Adelaide where there was no wifi, nothing to do and a 2 hour walk to get a coffee at the shops. That combined with an older list of whom there were a lot of players separated from kids / families and just hating it.

Further to that, if you look at our fixture, it was the worst in the comp by a mile. One home game all year, and constant games against sides coming off an extra 4-5 day break.

That all being said, I think without covid, we probably settled around 6-10 in the comp, and zero chance of any impact of finals, so maybe this year will eventually be looked at as a blessing with the opportunity for higher draft picks and moving on some older players.

We didn't only have the hardest fixture, we had a harder fixture than Brisbane had easier according to CD analysis.

	Outright home	Outright away	Home v away differential	Days break major advantage	Days break major disadvantage	Gap advantage differential	Fixture score
Brisbane Lions	9​	2​	7​	2​	2​	0​	7​
Port Adelaide	6​	2​	4​	2​	0​	2​	6​
Adelaide	9​	2​	7​	2​	4​	-2​	5​
Gold Coast	9​	3​	6​	2​	3​	-1​	5​
West Coast	6​	2​	4​	1​	1​	0​	4​
Richmond	0​	4​	-4​	5​	0​	5​	1​
Western Bulldogs	2​	4​	-2​	3​	0​	3​	1​
Fremantle	6​	3​	3​	0​	3​	-3​	0​
Melbourne	1​	3​	-2​	2​	0​	2​	0​
Carlton	1​	4​	-3​	2​	0​	2​	-1​
St Kilda	1​	5​	-4​	4​	1​	3​	-1​
Sydney	4​	5​	-1​	0​	0​	0​	-1​
GWS	6​	4​	2​	0​	4​	-4​	-2​
North Melbourne	2​	2​	0​	1​	3​	-2​	-2​
Essendon	1​	4​	-3​	2​	2​	0​	-3​
Geelong	3​	5​	-2​	1​	2​	-1​	-3​
Collingwood	1​	6​	-5​	3​	3​	0​	-5​
Hawthorn	1​	8​	-7​	0​	4​	-4​	-11​

 

[Judd2Sewell]

One thing I've been toying with over the last few days - especially with all the talk of how poor our list is at the moment - is I'd love someone to explain to me why we were so bloody good at the end of last year and even the first month of this year. We had essentially the same team and added a fit Impey, a fit Mitchell, a fitter Wingard, a fitter Scully, Frost, Patton etc. We didn't really lose anyone over the off-season and most of the over 28s didn't really feature in last years (and this years) B&F results so I don't think any decrease in their output really effected us this year more than last.

For me, I don't think our list is in as bad a shape as many think, I think our game plan wasn't the fit for us this year and for whatever reason I really think hub life had a bigger effect on us that others (for whatever reason).

I know Lewis had an injury-effected year, TOB wasn't as impactful, McEvoy was replaced with a battling Ceglar, but for the life of me I can't see why we were so good and then weren't. A few kids were down perhaps as well.

Obviously I think we need to keep adding great talent to the list over the next few years, but I can't see why we wouldn't have been doing that anyway even if our form from the first month continued.

IMO we had a better, fitter, healthier team on paper this year, came in with a great end to 2019, started really well this year. Are we really as bad as many are saying?

What am I missing?



Sent from my SM-A515U1 using Tapatalk

First month of this year? We got spanked by Geelong in round two and if the North game went on for another minute we'd have lost that.

 

[Stratton24]

First month of this year? We got spanked by Geelong in round two and if the North game went on for another minute we'd have lost that.

??? When the siren sounds the team in front wins - game over

 

[PhatHQ]

 

[sven_inc]

First month of this year? We got spanked by Geelong in round two and if the North game went on for another minute we'd have lost that.

We also spanked the other grand finalist and were a comfortable 30 points up against Nth halfway through the last. My point being that IMO we were far better than people give us credit for at the moment.

Sent from my SM-A515U1 using Tapatalk

 

[sven_inc]

All signs point to our boys really hating hub life. We were the only ones who didn't get to experience the QL hub which by all reports was infinitely better than NSW and the Barossa. Particularly Adelaide where there was no wifi, nothing to do and a 2 hour walk to get a coffee at the shops. That combined with an older list of whom there were a lot of players separated from kids / families and just hating it.

Further to that, if you look at our fixture, it was the worst in the comp by a mile. One home game all year, and constant games against sides coming off an extra 4-5 day break.

That all being said, I think without covid, we probably settled around 6-10 in the comp, and zero chance of any impact of finals, so maybe this year will eventually be looked at as a blessing with the opportunity for higher draft picks and moving on some older players.

I appreciate the info. To me it feels like hub life was the biggest issue. Clearly we had a poor fixture but we were notorious for having one of the worst fixtures through a lot of our three peat years. Having said that I can certainly see how a lack of home games and the more unappealing hub life could impact our season.

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[Billyc]

We also spanked the other grand finalist and were a comfortable 30 points up against Nth halfway through the last. My point being that IMO we were far better than people give us credit for at the moment.

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Also lost to Adelaide (18th) and Sydney (16th) and scraped over the line against North (17th). Cherry picking games swings both ways. We finished 15th. That’s where we are at

 

[WWSD]

An announcement on re-signings regarding Brooksby, Howe, Nash, Moore, Greaves, Jiath, Walker, Koschitzke, Jones, Jeka, Pepper and Reeves would be nice. What’s the hold up?

 

[TylerDurden]

An announcement on re-signings regarding Brooksby, Howe, Nash, Moore, Greaves, Jiath, Walker, Koschitzke, Jones, Jeka, Pepper and Reeves would be nice. What’s the hold up?

List sizes.

 

[WWSD]

List sizes.

Surely the club would know by now?

 

[sven_inc]

Also lost to Adelaide (18th) and Sydney (16th) and scraped over the line against North (17th). Cherry picking games swings both ways. We finished 15th. That’s where we are at

I hear what you're saying, but I was referring to the first 4 weeks of the season. We were 3-1 after being one of the most dominant sides in the 2nd half of 2019. I don't think where we're at is as bad as everyone thinks, or at least I'm keen to question why we suddenly fell off a cliff this year.

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[Billyc]

I hear what you're saying, but I was referring to the first 4 weeks of the season. We were 3-1 after being one of the most dominant sides in the 2nd half of 2019. I don't think where we're at is as bad as everyone thinks, or at least I'm keen to question why we suddenly fell off a cliff this year.

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I think Hawthorn has been guilty in recent years of looking at good performances (often in junk time back end of the season games) and overlooking poor performances. I’ve done it too in thinking we were closer than we were over last 5 years. Reality is all clubs ebb and flow in form, especially the poor ones. Our best at the MCG is ok, but our worst is as bad as any sides. We can’t overlook losses to the wooden spooner who hadn’t won in 12 months etc.

Had the season not been interrupted would we have done better? Very likely. But I very much doubt we’d have made the 8 and I’m certain we wouldn’t have been close to contending. And other lists are younger with much more scope for improvement. We need to invest in younger players now and reset for 3 years time.

My concern isn’t spending a couple years bottom 4, it’s continuing to tread water going nowhere, like Essendon has for over a decade

 

[dermott]

I hear what you're saying, but I was referring to the first 4 weeks of the season. We were 3-1 after being one of the most dominant sides in the 2nd half of 2019. I don't think where we're at is as bad as everyone thinks, or at least I'm keen to question why we suddenly fell off a cliff this year.

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I agree with your assessment in large part. The latter par of 2019 (without arguably our best player, Mitchell) would indicate that our list is not as bad as some believe. However we certainly need to add to it in order to be a finals contender. Adding a potential A grader this year (pick 4) and another next year in the draft will be critical to our growth. Whilst we have not been successful in luring free agents I have no doubt Clarkson and Wright know what types of player we need to get to round out the list and will have plans to do so.
Like you I am puzzled by our decline post COVID in 2020, when so many of our players seemed to be unfit and underperforming relative to some other clubs.
I am optimistic that 2021 will be an improvement and hopeful that the 2020 season was both an aberration and wake up call.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

We also spanked the other grand finalist and were a comfortable 30 points up against Nth halfway through the last. My point being that IMO we were far better than people give us credit for at the moment.

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We were better, but that's not saying much given how bad we were. Two good performances were offset by one terrible (Geelong) and one poor (North) performance.

 

[TylerDurden]

Surely the club would know by now?

No one does. Still no agreement with the PA.

 

[Sturty]

No one does. Still no agreement with the PA.

Could this be the holdup for Smith also?

 

[TazHawk15]

We were better, but that's not saying much given how bad we were. Two good performances were offset by one terrible (Geelong) and one poor (North) performance.

Even during Covid the Handbaggers got handed a dream first month, I wonder how that happened.

 

[TylerDurden]

Could this be the holdup for Smith also?

Could be. Especially if they are planning on cutting list sizes again in 2022, 2023.

 

[Hodginator]

An announcement on re-signings regarding Brooksby, Howe, Nash, Moore, Greaves, Jiath, Walker, Koschitzke, Jones, Jeka, Pepper and Reeves would be nice. What’s the hold up?

Hawthorn has locked in a further three players with Dan Howe, Damon Greaves and Conor Nash

11

Conor Nash

Age

25

Ht

198cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.7

2star

K

3.9

2star

HB

4.8

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

3.1

5star

CL

0.3

2star

No current season stats available

D

8.4

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.2

2star

signing new deals for the 2021 season.

GM-Football Graham Wright said the club is pleased to see its 2021 list continue to take shape.

“It’s pleasing to have Dan, Damon and Conor all locked in for next season,” said Wright.


Three young Hawks ink new deals…
https://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/829221

 

[Jaeger]

Greaves, Nash, Howe

 

[MrPremiership]

1 year deals.

I suspect Greaves stays on the rookie list for his 3rd and final year.

Howe and Nash on senior list, takes 2 more spots away from Jones and CJ if they were going to stick around

 

[Lickmesocks]

Howe and Nash..... buy a lotto ticket lads.

 

[Dazza the Viking]

Howe and Nash..... buy a lotto ticket lads.

We will be in trouble, if they get a few games next year.

 

[Bugs1977]

32 contracted player with 7 still unsigned (see orange)