List Mgmt. Should I stay or should I go now? End of season list management discussion (now continued for 2020)

[Bardo State]

Thoughts on Harry Morrison? Each year I hear about him tearing up the preseason track, yet each year he delivers very little.

I can't for the life of me see any notable improvement since his debut season.

Wouldn't at all be disappointed if he was delisted.

He might go but he's a similar age to guys like Jones, Jiath, Ross, Glass, Nash, Hanrahan... And he's shown more than those guys at AFL level, even though his ceiling is low.

Ideally you'd replace a guy like him but there might be too much dead weight on the list for cuts to get to him. Especially if list sizes aren't reduced by much and with the draft being hard to guage.

If it comes down to Morrison or pick 80 in a draft where half the pool hasn't played for a year, I reckon he stays on.

 

[cryptor]

From listening to the Radio, it sounds like they following has gone down re: Breust:

1. Hawthorn lets it be know he is potentially available.
2. Geelong like him as a footballer and register interest.
3. Geelong baulk at Hawthorn's price. Not even close. Cats thinking second rounder likely 30-40.
4. Cats walk away.
5. Breust unlikely to be at Geelong as miles apart. Not miles apart where it can be reconciled but miles apart why waste your time miles apart.

Not really bad. Kind of what I expect from both sides. Hawthorns want to maximise trade value, Cats want to get a bargain if it exists.

When we were in there positon during the threepeat our list management team wouldn't have thought twice about trading our single first round pick for a player like Breust. Maybe some would consider it "overs" at the time, but the fact of the matter is that he's that "final piece of the puzzle" player and I could quite easily see him elevating them to a flag in 2021 crumbing Hawkins. If they don't want to pony up then I'll still enjoy watching them continue to fall short in finals.

 

[theiaofseed]

When we were in there positon during the threepeat our list management team wouldn't have thought twice about trading our single first round pick for a player like Breust. Maybe some would consider it "overs" at the time, but the fact of the matter is that he's that "final piece of the puzzle" player and I could quite easily see him elevating them to a flag in 2021 crumbing Hawkins. If they don't want to pony up then I'll still enjoy watching them continue to fall short in finals.

They have 3 first round picks with a group that's about to go over the cliff, with such a questionable draft it's laughable they wouldn't give up a first round pick for him.

Next year during the finals this will be the age of their core group, Geelong will join Hawthorn in the bottom 4 soon.

Tuohy 31
Hawkins 33
Menegola 29
Duncan 30
Dahlhaus 29
Henderson 31
Taylor 35
Selwood 33
Rohan 30
Ablett 37
Guthrie 29
Steven 31
Blicavs 30
Dangerfield 31
Stanley 30

 

[Hodgey 15]

They have 3 first round picks with a group that's about to go over the cliff, with such a questionable draft it's laughable they wouldn't give up a first round pick for him.

Next year during the finals this will be the age of their core group, Geelong will join Hawthorn in the bottom 4 soon.

Tuohy 31
Hawkins 33
Menegola 29
Duncan 30
Dahlhaus 29
Henderson 31
Taylor 35
Selwood 33
Rohan 30
Ablett 37
Guthrie 29
Steven 31
Blicavs 30
Dangerfield 31
Stanley 30

That is a very big cliff Cats are about to fall off and it will be interesting to see if they land on their feet as well as their namesake's capable of.
They are going to be a lot worse of than others believe our club is or possibly will be.

 

[Bugs1977]

we have offered 1 year as we do with all our 30 year olds.

Our 1 might be at 600k compared to the lions at 3 x 400k.

If he stays and has a cracker then he will get another one on good coin with us.

Do you take the guarantee and move to QLD and commit to 3 years up there or stay in Melb back yourself and potentially earn the same amount in 2 seasons?

That is the sort of stuff these guys have to weigh up.

Correct me if I’m wrong but I thought we’ve offered a 2 year deal with the 2nd year having certain triggers which need to be met.

 

[Davo-27]

They have 3 first round picks with a group that's about to go over the cliff, with such a questionable draft it's laughable they wouldn't give up a first round pick for him.

Next year during the finals this will be the age of their core group, Geelong will join Hawthorn in the bottom 4 soon.

Tuohy 31
Hawkins 33
Menegola 29
Duncan 30
Dahlhaus 29
Henderson 31
Taylor 35
Selwood 33
Rohan 30
Ablett 37
Guthrie 29
Steven 31
Blicavs 30
Dangerfield 31
Stanley 30

Geelong also draft good talent, they also have 3 first round picks this year, they aren't like us, they manage their list extremely well, like we used to from 2005 to 2012 or thereabouts imo.

 

[theiaofseed]

Geelong also draft good talent, they also have 3 first round picks this year, they aren't like us, they manage their list extremely well, like we used to from 2005 to 2012 or thereabouts imo.

They have is the important part, name 3 players under 25 that are elite.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

They have is the important part, name 3 players under 25 that are elite.

We have none either, though I expect Day will change that soon enough.

Worpel, Scrimshaw, Hardwick, Impey are all good players, but not elite. Though I suppose this all depends on what you consider elite to be.

 

[SA HAWK]

The big list calls Hawthorn will have to weigh up according to Luke Hodge

“It’s a mature conversation and they always come out with the same answer.”

www.sen.com.au

Hodgey’s opinion on the list some interesting names thrown up.

 

[theiaofseed]

We have none either, though I expect Day will change that soon enough.

Worpel, Scrimshaw, Hardwick, Impey are all good players, but not elite. Though I suppose this all depends on what you consider elite to be.

No s**t, nothing to do with what I said though.

 

[Wandering Hawk]

Hoping to get some pleasure in other's pain, here's an hypothetical overview of Geelong's list in 2023:
There will remain below age 32 a total of 20 current players who have ever played a game, assuming none go in the coming list size reductions.

Defenders (7):
Kolodashnij, Bews, Stewart (30yo), Henry, O'Connor, Clark, z Guthrie.
(lose Taylor, Tuohy, Henderson, Blicavs)

Mids (5): Parfit, Atkins, Narkle, Constable, Simpson
(lose Selwood, Dangerfield, Duncan, Steven, Guthrie)

Forwards (7): Dahlhaus (30yo), Ratugolea, Miers, Parsons, Cockatoo, Fogarty, Close
(lose Ablett, Hawkins, Jenkins, Rohan, Menegola)

Ruck: Fort (30yo)
(lose Stanley, Abbott)

That's rancid.

Cockatoo and Parsons can't even get on the park.

Sure they'll have this year picks 11, 16, 18, who will be 20yo kids to start 2023.
Sure they've got 7 currently unplayed kids who'll be 22-23yo if they survive the list cull.
Sure they'll have 2 years of further young draft picks to develop.
Maybe Guthrie, Rohan, and Menegola go one more year at 32.

They'll have 5 x 1st round picks by 2023, and 3 x 2nd round picks, and 2 x 3rd round picks. Can you imagine the list even vaguely being competitive?

They still need to replace 16 quality players over 3 years with 7 unplayed kids plus 10 total picks from rounds 1 to 3 in crap shot covid drafts. These players won't get many games together as the old players hog the games trying to get that flag.

Their picks won't be high enough to get structural players to rebuild their spine until after the cliff in 2022/3, and their surviving list is strung out demographically and so will continue to have to retire and replace players.

Short term they've got to further squeeze kids out for the list size reductions and to make way for the picks this year - they want to keep themselves with a shot at a flag and so will be very reluctant to trim their current game ready depth, but they've got 3 x 1st round picks plus round 2 and 3 to use this year, as well as a total list size reduction. If they unload kids their squad gets very threadbare in 2023. They'll probably have to swap current picks for future picks or just lose their later picks unused.

They're rooted.
Let's enjoy.
Let's also steal any young players that they delist.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Thoughts on Harry Morrison? Each year I hear about him tearing up the preseason track, yet each year he delivers very little.

I can't for the life of me see any notable improvement since his debut season.

Wouldn't at all be disappointed if he was delisted.

Not good enough for regular league footy, hopefully delisted in the next 2 years unless something substantial changes.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Hoping to get some pleasure in other's pain, here's an hypothetical overview of Geelong's list in 2023:
There will remain below age 32 a total of 20 current players who have ever played a game, assuming none go in the coming list size reductions.

Defenders (7):
Kolodashnij, Bews, Stewart (30yo), Henry, O'Connor, Clark, z Guthrie.
(lose Taylor, Tuohy, Henderson, Blicavs)

Mids (5): Parfit, Atkins, Narkle, Constable, Simpson
(lose Selwood, Dangerfield, Duncan, Steven, Guthrie)

Forwards (7): Dahlhaus (30yo), Ratugolea, Miers, Parsons, Cockatoo, Fogarty, Close
(lose Ablett, Hawkins, Jenkins, Rohan, Menegola)

Ruck: Fort (30yo)
(lose Stanley, Abbott)

That's rancid.

Cockatoo and Parsons can't even get on the park.

Sure they'll have this year picks 11, 16, 18, who will be 20yo kids to start 2023.
Sure they've got 7 currently unplayed kids who'll be 22-23yo if they survive the list cull.
Sure they'll have 2 years of further young draft picks to develop.
Maybe Guthrie, Rohan, and Menegola go one more year at 32.

They'll have 5 x 1st round picks by 2023, and 3 x 2nd round picks, and 2 x 3rd round picks. Can you imagine the list even vaguely being competitive?

They still need to replace 16 quality players over 3 years with 7 unplayed kids plus 10 total picks from rounds 1 to 3 in crap shot covid drafts. These players won't get many games together as the old players hog the games trying to get that flag.

Their picks won't be high enough to get structural players to rebuild their spine until after the cliff in 2022/3, and their surviving list is strung out demographically and so will continue to have to retire and replace players.

Short term they've got to further squeeze kids out for the list size reductions and to make way for the picks this year - they want to keep themselves with a shot at a flag and so will be very reluctant to trim their current game ready depth, but they've got 3 x 1st round picks plus round 2 and 3 to use this year, as well as a total list size reduction. If they unload kids their squad gets very threadbare in 2023. They'll probably have to swap current picks for future picks or just lose their later picks unused.

They're rooted.
Let's enjoy.
Let's also steal any young players that they delist.

I'd be willing to put big money on Dangerfield still playing in 2023 and still playing at All Australian level or close to it.

Duncan will likely still be going and playing pretty good footy also in 2023.

 

[Wandering Hawk]

I'd be willing to put big money on Dangerfield still playing in 2023 and still playing at All Australian level or close to it.

Duncan will likely still be going and playing pretty good footy also in 2023.

Seems right. I'd imagine that they'll likely have 2-4 33yo+ players hanging round. Probably someone will go another 5 years. There's little alternative and no real competition for spots, so they'll persist. Danger is fit and going strong, will probably still be amidst it all. He'll probably keep them from absolutely bottoming out for another 1-2 further years if he can stay on the park.

 

[Lickmesocks]

Correct me if I’m wrong but I thought we’ve offered a 2 year deal with the 2nd year having certain triggers which need to be met.

1 year guaranteed and a second year if triggers are met is what I believe.

As a player that is 1 year guaranteed.

 

[Davo-27]

They have is the important part, name 3 players under 25 that are elite.

Elite is subjective, ill name their top players under 23
Parfitt
Clark
L.Fogarty
S. De Koning
Constable
Miers
Henry

Then there's 3 players who are potentially really good
Close
Taheny
C.Stephens

3 first rounders this year, we don't have close to as good youth unfortunately

In comparison we have
Hardwick
Worpel
Scrimshaw
Day
Greaves

Maybe?
Maginness
Koschitzke

With pick 3

 

[KermitJagger]

Geelong also draft good talent, they also have 3 first round picks this year, they aren't like us, they manage their list extremely well, like we used to from 2005 to 2012 or thereabouts imo.

"Geelong draft good talent" is one of the most embarrassing ongoing jokes of all time. Let's have a look at their recent history of first rounders and other early picks:

2009 - Daniel Menzel, gone
2010 - Billie Smedts, gone
2011 - no first rounder, first picks were Hamling and Kersten shortly after, gone
2012 - Jackson Thurlow, gone
2013 - Darcy Lang, gone!
2014 - Nakia Cockatoo... going, going...
2015 - None
---
2016 - Parfitt, Stewart, Ratugolea - finally a good draft
2017 - Fogarty, Kelly, Constable, Miers - seems like it might be a good one
2018 - Jordan Clark - too early to tell
2019 - Cooper Stephens, Sam De Koning - too early to tell

They only thing stopping them from taking that plunge over a cliff is the stalwarts they've had for ages, a leader in the backline (Taylor), a leader in the midfield (Selwood) and a leader up forward (Hawkins). They've complimented them with solid, mature players in order to compete - but there's sweet FA carrying this team after they retire.

 

[Falco131415]

Must find a way to palm off Ceglar to GWS. Not up to it at all at AFL level.
They're screaming out for another Ruck.

 

[Davo-27]

"Geelong draft good talent" is one of the most embarrassing ongoing jokes of all time. Let's have a look at their recent history of first rounders and other early picks:

2009 - Daniel Menzel, gone
2010 - Billie Smedts, gone
2011 - no first rounder, first picks were Hamling and Kersten shortly after, gone
2012 - Jackson Thurlow, gone
2013 - Darcy Lang, gone!
2014 - Nakia Cockatoo... going, going...
2015 - None
---
2016 - Parfitt, Stewart, Ratugolea - finally a good draft
2017 - Fogarty, Kelly, Constable, Miers - seems like it might be a good one
2018 - Jordan Clark - too early to tell
2019 - Cooper Stephens, Sam De Koning - too early to tell

They only thing stopping them from taking that plunge over a cliff is the stalwarts they've had for ages, a leader in the backline (Taylor), a leader in the midfield (Selwood) and a leader up forward (Hawkins). They've complimented them with solid, mature players in order to compete - but there's sweet FA carrying this team after they retire.

You might be right, but they managed their dip a few years before us, better than us, they are back in the hunt as we are falling apart with no clear future

 

[sohsam]

The big list calls Hawthorn will have to weigh up according to Luke Hodge

“It’s a mature conversation and they always come out with the same answer.”

www.sen.com.au

Hodgey’s opinion on the list some interesting names thrown up.

Nothing too out of the ordinary, just that club would sit down with players 26+ and seeing where their future lies.

It really comes down to what club wants, even if players agreed, they would not be able to trade all for picks they were happy with, so there will be some left over to help the younger guys.

 

[KermitJagger]

You might be right, but they managed their dip a few years before us, better than us.

They managed it better in order to keep winning, but our saving grace is that we brought in younger players as opposed to Geelong who brought in players just those few years older. We also had a lot less luck in regards to injury - Dangerfield never lost a year with a broken leg, for example.

Our better players are predominantly under 30, and they're increasingly dependent on players over 30.

2018 was a season where we had fairly good continuity in player availability and we made the top 4, and those players we brought in to get us there aren't too old yet.

 

[Davo-27]

They managed it better in order to keep winning, but our saving grace is that we brought in younger players as opposed to Geelong who brought in players just those few years older. We also had a lot less luck in regards to injury - Dangerfield never lost a year with a broken leg, for example.

Our better players are predominantly under 30, and they're increasingly dependent on players over 30.

2018 was a season where we had fairly good continuity in player availability and we made the top 4, and those players we brought in to get us there aren't too old yet.

And they are ahead of us in the rebuild, so not only did they manage their dip really well, they are currently ahead of us in their rebuild, Lloyd was wrong, were the laughing stock of the AFL currently, something needs to change, drastically

 

[Bardo State]

I think supporters underestimate how much AFL lists can change in 3-5 years.

Taking a current list, adding 3 to players ages and writing off anyone who will be over 29 hasn't been a good way to predict which lists will be contenders or rubbish.

Before the 2010 draft and trade period, Hawthorn didn't have Stratton, Lake, Burgoyne, Gibson, Smith, Puopolo, Hale, Gunston, Hill or Simpkin on the list who would play in the 2013 grand final. And Luke Breust just a rookie. Hawthorn kept an amazingly talented core through that period which Geelong won't be able to. But they don't need to be a dynasty level team to win a flag.

Now it's even easier to add talent to a list and Geelong have 3 first round picks to play with.

I remember being convinced that Brisbane would be an amazing team in the mid/late 2010s. Which is what happens when you take lists and add years and linear development.

 

[Steven Tyler]

The big list calls Hawthorn will have to weigh up according to Luke Hodge

“It’s a mature conversation and they always come out with the same answer.”

www.sen.com.au

Hodgey’s opinion on the list some interesting names thrown up.

Not sure why they keep asking someone on the Brisbane Lions payroll his opinions on a club he left 3 years ago regarding its playing list

 

[MatteeG]

The main difference is their older brigade have performed to a much higher level than our older brigade.