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Showdown XIX - Predictions

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J

jasnik

Senior List
Sep 10, 2003
214
0
SE Swampland
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I thought I may as well get the ball rolling here:


Weather: Crap, SW gusty wind, 12 degrees, passing showers, slippery pill
Crowd: 50,726
Port's Best Players: Tredrea, Mahoney, Lade, C Cornes
Crows' Danger Men: Ricciuto, Edwards, Goodwin, Johncock
Probability of Choppy laying a big hip and shoulder: 80%
Probability of Choppy getting reported: 40%
First fight on ground: Between Francou and Ricciuto before first bounce
Number of arrests at the ground during and after the game: 12
Winner: Port by 17 points

Comment: It won't be ideal conditions for footy. Crows have the advantage of not travelling and playing in similar conditions last week and Ricciuto returning. Port have the advantage in recent form, slightly less pressure and key players hitting their straps at the right time of the season. This is a 50-50 game, but I think that Port plays its best when the pressure is off (anyone who disagrees - compare the impact of pressure on Port's performances between last year's prelim final against St Kilda and the Grand Final against the Lions). It will come down to who is willing to take the chances when they are there to be taken, and I think Adelaide may stick to playing the percentages rather than taking the calculated risks needed to win the game.
 

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jasnik said:
Probability of Choppy laying a big hip and shoulder: 80%
Probability of Choppy getting reported: 40%
First fight on ground: Between Francou and Ricciuto before first bounce
Number of arrests at the ground during and after the game: 12
Click to expand...
Hmm
Probability of Monty hitting Burton during match: 70%
Probability of Burton squealing like a pig at the tribunal if this happens: 100%
Probability of McLeod waving his hands at some point, yet for him Crows fans say it isn't goal celebration arrogance: 50%
 
probability of a hitherto well respected Port midfield player (let's say Gav) breaking the jaw of the Crows fullback and putting him in hospital....then writing a written apology. 0% - we have much more class than that.








oh and.......

1. yes yes Port players couldn't write an apology anyway :rolleyes:
 
blackdiamond said:
That would be funny, Francou will start on the bench so Im guessing all this will take place just after the teams run through the banners.
Click to expand...
Oh yeah, didn't think of that. Well, there's nothing like getting proceedings underway early is there? :p
 
Here's a ********-stirrer

Chances of Choppy and Roo providing exactly the same bump on opposition player and Choppy getting 3, Roo gets a $150 fine - 80%

Burton and/or Bassett making a load of errors - 95%

Crows to lose and Crows fans claim that it wasn't a choke - 100%




Port by 17 points
 
Borscht Mat said:
probability of a hitherto well respected Port midfield player (let's say Gav) breaking the jaw of the Crows fullback and putting him in hospital....then writing a written apology. 0% - we have much more class than that.








oh and.......

1. yes yes Port players couldn't write an apology anyway :rolleyes:
Click to expand...


Russell Johnson
 

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This game could be a blowout for either team, but if things get tight then the Crows will have to be favourites.

Port by about 15 but never looking like losing. Blowout our way to start with then the Crows pegging us back but too late to win.
 
*PAF said:
This game could be a blowout for either team, but if things get tight then the Crows will have to be favourites.

Port by about 15 but never looking like losing. Blowout our way to start with then the Crows pegging us back but too late to win.
Click to expand...
That's interesting - I would have picked the opposite. I expect Crows to jump out to an early lead, with Port pegging them back in the 3rd and 4th quarters. It seems to take Port at least a quarter to get their matchups right and find the rhythm of the game, and generally other teams play the flood against Port, which means they run out of legs about halfway through the 3rd quarter.

I think the last Showdown Choco deliberately let Crows flood while Port played kick to kick outside the 50. The tactic nearly worked, except for some horrible turnovers that killed us. I think we'll know within the first 10 minutes if Choco wants Port to replicate this tactic, or go for the fast movement forward option that a) worked so well last week and b) looks far more attractive from a supporter's perspective. I'm tipping the super-fast ball movement if possible, with plan B being "retain possession and let them flood" (I hear you say nooooooooo).
 
jasnik said:
That's interesting - I would have picked the opposite. I expect Crows to jump out to an early lead, with Port pegging them back in the 3rd and 4th quarters. It seems to take Port at least a quarter to get their matchups right and find the rhythm of the game, and generally other teams play the flood against Port, which means they run out of legs about halfway through the 3rd quarter.

I think the last Showdown Choco deliberately let Crows flood while Port played kick to kick outside the 50. The tactic nearly worked, except for some horrible turnovers that killed us. I think we'll know within the first 10 minutes if Choco wants Port to replicate this tactic, or go for the fast movement forward option that a) worked so well last week and b) looks far more attractive from a supporter's perspective. I'm tipping the super-fast ball movement if possible, with plan B being "retain possession and let them flood" (I hear you say nooooooooo).
Click to expand...
I think the first will be a slugfest with us winning the second and third quarters.
 

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My predictions

* First quarter - probably 5 goals will be scored in total. Many points.
* Crows to deal with C. Cornes by treating him like a regular midfielder.
* Ken McGregor to be the key player for the Cows.
* Port's midfield getting first possession to be our only chance of winning.
* Pettigrew not to back-up last week's performance.
* Salopek will be in for P. Burgoyne or Wilson, and will likely match up on Reilly.
* Whichever of Brogan or Lade doesn't start in the ruck will be our dominant ruck for the day.
* Kingsley will get a run primarily as a half-forward.
* Wakelin will beat Perrie.
* Various players will try to provoke Scott Thompson into giving away stupid free kicks.
* Tredrea will be fired up, and may smash the Crows if our midfield isn't thrashed.
* Chaplin will make at least one damaging rookie mistake, offset by a spectacular mark or contested possession.
* Byron Pickett will fire up for the second half.
* We will try to run the clock down in at least one quarter.
 
Goal for goal in the first half.
Crows to get the yips 10 minutes from 3/4 time.
Power senses this,and switch to thumping mode.
Power win by 47pts.
Crows fans congratulate each other on a wonderful season,then write to Oxford to have the word ''choke'' removed from the dictionary. :D
 
*PAF said:
This game could be a blowout for either team, but if things get tight then the Crows will have to be favourites.

Port by about 15 but never looking like losing. Blowout our way to start with then the Crows pegging us back but too late to win.
Click to expand...


If it's a blowout, there'll be a lot of tribunal activity on Monday.
 

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Showdown XIX - Predictions

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