Simple Mathematician, firstly a tip. Unregistered posters - with very few exceptions - on this forum usually don't receive much credibility. As you are quite articulate and make some good points, do yourself a favour and register.
I found your post in the 'Salary Cap ...' thread well written and interesting. As it deals with the viability of the clubs in the competition, I thought it would be better placed in a thread of it's own.
I actually believe that the competition will be most viable with a 14 team competition, no Ansett Cup and 28 rounds of football.
I believe that the existing 6 interstate sides will survive intact and their will be at least one more team in each of Queensland (Southport) and New South Wales (West Sydney or Canberra). That leaves 6 teams within Victoria.
I believe Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon will remain intact for the reasons you have provided.
I believe Richmond have had a shocking 2 decades but have retained a large non-fickle supporter core, plus an even larger contingent of bandwagon jumpers! If we are this strong at our weakest, then our potential strength is up their with the likes of Essendon.
I believe Geelong will survive the near terminal financial cancer that they have recently experienced. Being the sole team in a largish town ensures plenty of local sponsorship, and helps the competition as a whole with better distribution of clubs.
I believe it is with the 5 remaining clubs that it will become interesting. I would suggest that at best either 2 sets of 2 clubs would have to merge OR at worst, 2 clubs will go to the wall. I would also suggest that only 1 of these 5 clubs will be able to survive in their own right in Melbourne.
As discussed in previous threads, the Southport carrot must be sorely tempting and the long term potential - with AFL support - of a second Sydney side possibly playing out of Homebush is great.
I believe that the Kangaroos have already put in a lot of ground work into a NSW migration with the (less than successful)Sydney experiment and the VFL side being based in Lavington. My belief is that until they committ to NSW they will not ever succeed. They would be perceived as a team that is only temporary and not one that belongs.
Judgning by comments made previously from David Smorgon, the Western Bulldogs are quite hard up against it. Smorgon is quite a smart operator though, and I wouldn't be suprised if he took the bold decision to 'merge' with Southport on his terms.
Given that North Melbourne and Western Bulldogs have quite a lot in common, I would not rule out a possible joint-venture Sydney move. They are the only 2 Victorian clubs with management bold enough to take this step.
It is reported in today's Herald Sun that Joe Gutnick will not be putting any more money into the Melbourne Football Club. Quite rightly, he indicates that they have to learn to stand on their own two feet.
I agree with your comments on Hawthorn. They have been successful in converting a large percentage of their supporters into members (and their supporters cats, dogs, cars, etc...
).
St. Kilda are interesting. A few years of excellent management may well see them as a power side. They have a large supporter base and a rapidly improving player list. However, they have a long history of failure and under achievment. Can Butterss and Blight change this culture? If yes, then they will survive. If no, then they will be one of the first to go. This is the crossroads for them.
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This is a hallucination and these faces are in a dream. A computer generated environment; a fantasy island you can do anything and not have to face the consequences.
I found your post in the 'Salary Cap ...' thread well written and interesting. As it deals with the viability of the clubs in the competition, I thought it would be better placed in a thread of it's own.
I actually believe that the competition will be most viable with a 14 team competition, no Ansett Cup and 28 rounds of football.
I believe that the existing 6 interstate sides will survive intact and their will be at least one more team in each of Queensland (Southport) and New South Wales (West Sydney or Canberra). That leaves 6 teams within Victoria.
I believe Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon will remain intact for the reasons you have provided.
I believe Richmond have had a shocking 2 decades but have retained a large non-fickle supporter core, plus an even larger contingent of bandwagon jumpers! If we are this strong at our weakest, then our potential strength is up their with the likes of Essendon.
I believe Geelong will survive the near terminal financial cancer that they have recently experienced. Being the sole team in a largish town ensures plenty of local sponsorship, and helps the competition as a whole with better distribution of clubs.
I believe it is with the 5 remaining clubs that it will become interesting. I would suggest that at best either 2 sets of 2 clubs would have to merge OR at worst, 2 clubs will go to the wall. I would also suggest that only 1 of these 5 clubs will be able to survive in their own right in Melbourne.
As discussed in previous threads, the Southport carrot must be sorely tempting and the long term potential - with AFL support - of a second Sydney side possibly playing out of Homebush is great.
I believe that the Kangaroos have already put in a lot of ground work into a NSW migration with the (less than successful)Sydney experiment and the VFL side being based in Lavington. My belief is that until they committ to NSW they will not ever succeed. They would be perceived as a team that is only temporary and not one that belongs.
Judgning by comments made previously from David Smorgon, the Western Bulldogs are quite hard up against it. Smorgon is quite a smart operator though, and I wouldn't be suprised if he took the bold decision to 'merge' with Southport on his terms.
Given that North Melbourne and Western Bulldogs have quite a lot in common, I would not rule out a possible joint-venture Sydney move. They are the only 2 Victorian clubs with management bold enough to take this step.
It is reported in today's Herald Sun that Joe Gutnick will not be putting any more money into the Melbourne Football Club. Quite rightly, he indicates that they have to learn to stand on their own two feet.
I agree with your comments on Hawthorn. They have been successful in converting a large percentage of their supporters into members (and their supporters cats, dogs, cars, etc...
St. Kilda are interesting. A few years of excellent management may well see them as a power side. They have a large supporter base and a rapidly improving player list. However, they have a long history of failure and under achievment. Can Butterss and Blight change this culture? If yes, then they will survive. If no, then they will be one of the first to go. This is the crossroads for them.
------------------
This is a hallucination and these faces are in a dream. A computer generated environment; a fantasy island you can do anything and not have to face the consequences.
