Since 2000 no team has won the premiership from 4th

[PerthBoy86]

Premiers By Ladder Positions (2000-16)

Which spot has produced the most?

www.triplem.com.au

Article is from 2016 but trend still holds.

I find it really interesting that since 2000 no team finishing 4th has gone on to win it all. Given they get the second chance, and aren't really any more advantaged than 3rd, who also play an away QF, why is that? Gotta be pure coincidence, right? I can't see any other reason why. Granted yes, 3rd is generally better than 4th, it's not huge. A double chance is more important.

Could this be the year? I'd say maybe if Melbourne make it and improve form.

 

[PCORF]

Since VFL was renamed to AFL in 1990. Current finals system in RED.

1st, 1993, 1994, 1995, 2000, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2021
2nd, 1990, 1991, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2018
3rd, 2003, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020
4th, 1992, 1997
5th, 1998
7th, 2016

Collingwood nearly won it in 2002 from 4th.

 

[Eshay187]

Second is the place to be it seems.

Very silly of Geelong to have won the most games. Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

47

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

must be held accountable.

 

[GeelongFTW]

Second is the place to be it seems.

Very silly of Geelong to have won the most games. Chris Scott must be held accountable.

Geelong were clear best team in 2007. We also would've been top in 09/11 in literally any other year lol. Saints 09 and Collingwood 11 were freaks (but cats were even more freaky)

 

[Fadge]

Geelong were clear best team in 2007. We also would've been top in 09/11 in literally any other year lol. Saints 09 and Collingwood 11 were freaks (but cats were even more freaky)

'Super Era'

 

[endure]

Could it be that they're playing 1st place in the first week, and may get deafened badly which takes away their confidence for the rest of the finals?

Or just coincidental.

 

[My Tilly]

Minor premiers are 7-15 during that time.

 

[Duskfire]

Its just a statistical anomaly. It doesn't mean anything.

 

[theyellowsash]

probably just indicates that the top 3 are generally pretty even, and whoever finishes 22 games on top comes down to a bit of luck (easier fixture, fewer injuries, in game luck to win the close ones etc), but because of that theyre not necessarily the actual best team through the year.

 

[Ed_Gein]

Since VFL was renamed to AFL in 1990. Current finals system in RED.

1st, 1993, 1994, 1995, 2000, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2021
2nd, 1990, 1991, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2018
3rd, 2003, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020
4th, 1992, 1997
5th, 1998
7th, 2016

Collingwood nearly won it in 2002 from 4th.

Swans finished 3rd in 2005 behind West Coast and Adelaide.

 

[theiaofseed]

Premiers By Ladder Positions (2000-16)

Which spot has produced the most?

www.triplem.com.au

Article is from 2016 but trend still holds.

I find it really interesting that since 2000 no team finishing 4th has gone on to win it all. Given they get the second chance, and aren't really any more advantaged than 3rd, who also play an away QF, why is that? Gotta be pure coincidence, right? I can't see any other reason why. Granted yes, 3rd is generally better than 4th, it's not huge. A double chance is more important.

Could this be the year? I'd say maybe if Melbourne make it and improve form.

Generally 2nd and 3rd are closer than 1st and 4th in ability and more often than not 5th is much better than 6th, 4th by far has the toughest first 2 weeks of the finals.

 

[Fadge]

Its just a statistical anomaly. It doesn't mean anything.

This.

I suspect over the long term we'd see the relative number of Premiership wins directly proportional to the ladder finishing positions.

Over time there will regularly be dominant teams over the home and away who maintain their form through the finals series and take out the flag ala Bombers 2000, Cats 2007, Pies 2010.

Reckon over 100 years you'd see something like:
1st - 40 flags
2nd - 25 flags
3rd - 18 flags
4th - 13 flags
5th to 8th - 4 flags

 

[PieLebo87]

Here’s some random facts for you, make of it what you will -

- In the last 70 years, Cats have lost 3 GFs and won 1 from 1st position.

- Sydney have won their last 2 premierships from 3rd position.

- Freo’s one GF appearance came from 3rd position.

- Every Tigers flag from 1980 onwards has come from 3rd position.

- Lions have never won a flag from 1st position (2nd, 2nd, 3rd)

- Melbourne won their first premiership from 6th position (of 8 teams)

- Collingwood have never won a flag from further back than 2nd position.

- Carlton paid via brown paper bags under the table for a lot of their flags.

 

[Greggy]

If 4th lose the QF they usually play 5th in the SF which is clearly a difficult draw.

 

[Duskfire]

If 4th lose the QF they usually play 5th in the SF which is clearly a difficult draw.

there is typically little difference between 5th and 6th.

There is no pattern here, its just an anomaly. There is zero chance that every year 5tth has been noticeably stronger than 6th to the point where the 4th best placed team has a harder run at it.

 

[projectv]

4th has the hardest game week 1 of the finals - usually.

So it's probably more likely they lose the qualifying final, which makes it harder to then win the flag.

 

[Defabs]

4th has the hardest game week 1 of the finals - usually.

So it's probably more likely they lose the qualifying final, which makes it harder to then win the flag.

Swans were so close to winning it in 2006 from 4th place. Fell short by a point. They won the QF too against WCE.

Collingwood upset Port in the QF from 4th place and just fell short against Brisbane in the GF.

The other three winners of the QF from 4th place all lost their home PF despite having a week off. Swans in 2003, GWS in 2016 and Collingwood in 2019.

So the track record isn’t good from 4th since 2001. A 5 in 21 chance or less than 25% chance of winning the QF.

And if you win that, only a 40% chance you’ll win your home PF.

 

[Rod Stroker]

Why stop at 2000 though?

Since 1999, no team has won the premiership from 4th.
Since 1998, no team has won the premiership from 4th.

 

[Fadge]

Why stop at 2000 though?

Since 1999, no team has won the premiership from 4th.
Since 1998, no team has won the premiership from 4th.

We stop at 2000 as that was the first season of the current finals system.

 

[Rod Stroker]

Premiers By Ladder Positions (2000-16)

Which spot has produced the most?

www.triplem.com.au

Article is from 2016 but trend still holds.

I find it really interesting that since 2000 no team finishing 4th has gone on to win it all. Given they get the second chance, and aren't really any more advantaged than 3rd, who also play an away QF, why is that? Gotta be pure coincidence, right? I can't see any other reason why. Granted yes, 3rd is generally better than 4th, it's not huge. A double chance is more important.

Could this be the year? I'd say maybe if Melbourne make it and improve form.

For Melbourne to finish 4th, they would have to lose as well as Collingwood and Freo. Unlikely.

 

[el toado]

- Collingwood have never won a flag from further back than 2nd position.

I never knew this fact!

It is obviously well known that the Pies have a poor record in grand finals - 15 wins, 27 losses & 2 draws (36% win rate excluding draws)

However in 11 of the 42 years they played in grand finals they came from outside the top 2 - and as you stated they didn't win any of those 11.

When they made the top 2, the Pies' record is slightly more palatable (15 wins, 16 losses)

Its amazing that they haven't been able to steal at lease one of those 11 chances!

 

[Tippett2Goal]

This.

I suspect over the long term we'd see the relative number of Premiership wins directly proportional to the ladder finishing positions.

Over time there will regularly be dominant teams over the home and away who maintain their form through the finals series and take out the flag ala Bombers 2000, Cats 2007, Pies 2010.

Reckon over 100 years you'd see something like:
1st - 40 flags
2nd - 25 flags
3rd - 18 flags
4th - 13 flags
5th to 8th - 4 flags

If fixtures were even I'd agree with you, however with the in-equalities in the draw its not surprising that a better team with a harder draw may finish 2nd or 3rd whilst a good team with an easier draw may finish 1st.

I'd actually expect there to be a pretty even distribution between 1st and 2nd

so

1-2 (70% of flags)
3-4 (25% of flags)
5-8 (5% of flags)

 

[PieLebo87]

I never knew this fact!

It is obviously well known that the Pies have a poor record in grand finals - 15 wins, 27 losses & 2 draws (36% win rate excluding draws)

However in 11 of the 42 years they played in grand finals they came from outside the top 2 - and as you stated they didn't win any of those 11.

When they made the top 2, the Pies' record is slightly more palatable (15 wins, 16 losses)

Its amazing that they haven't been able to steal at lease one of those 11 chances!

When giving context, the Colliwobbles tag is unjustified, regularly making GFs they probably shouldn’t then losing.

Pies have missed finals just 43 times in its 126 season history. They make finals once every 3 seasons across 126 seasons and a GF average of 1 every 4. There’s no club that maintains that level of consistency in being competitive.

Outside a dark period in the late ‘90s where they missed finals from 1995 to 2001, the longest Collingwood has gone in their whole history without playing in finals is 4 seasons - it’s remarkable when compared to even the current streak of Carlton who are on 8 seasons without finals and had a 6 year streak without finals prior to that.

 

[PieLebo87]

If 4th lose the QF they usually play 5th in the SF which is clearly a difficult draw.

Not just that, without any data, you’d think historically each season there is always the 2 or maybe 3 standout teams and more often than not another 2-3 sides are battling for 4th as the rung below those top 2-3 standout teams, similar to this season.

4th will play the strongest team, then get a tough run through the Semis and Prelim. If they make a GF, it’s on the back of 3 hard weeks but if they do win the QF v #1, the top team more often than not gets another crack at them and gets the job done second time around.

There is some logic behind it I guess.

 

[Fadge]

If fixtures were even I'd agree with you, however with the in-equalities in the draw its not surprising that a better team with a harder draw may finish 2nd or 3rd whilst a good team with an easier draw may finish 1st.

I'd actually expect there to be a pretty even distribution between 1st and 2nd

so

1-2 (70% of flags)
3-4 (25% of flags)
5-8 (5% of flags)

Yep, good points. But I just think we'll always have the occasional absolutely dominant team that will finish first, regularly enough for more premiers to be the top placed team at the end of Home and Away than any other ladder position.