Skippos's Final 2014 Phantom Draft

[Zach Package]

Damn Skippos, you've smashed out a power of work since the last time I checked this. I always like drafts that factor in rookie upgrades, adds a bit more realism rather than picking all the way up to like 120 or whatever.

as far as a general comment on our picks goes, I feel we're unlikely to go into the 5th round this year, but that's nitpicking in the extreme, and you're spot on in terms of the types of players we'd go for, but i'd preference different individuals, but that's just me.

Blakely i think is a smart pick given how the cards have fallen here (Ideal world i think we go a De Goey/Duggan/Ahern though), Bevan addresses a definite need (although again, I favour a Cripps/Watchman/Fox because they can pinch hit in the ruck), and the Mclean pick i give a big tick to, considering we don't have anything like him at present.

Chuck in another mid and a ruck in the rookie draft and you've got me sold.

 

[Skippos]

Damn Skippos, you've smashed out a power of work since the last time I checked this. I always like drafts that factor in rookie upgrades, adds a bit more realism rather than picking all the way up to like 120 or whatever.

as far as a general comment on our picks goes, I feel we're unlikely to go into the 5th round this year, but that's nitpicking in the extreme, and you're spot on in terms of the types of players we'd go for, but i'd preference different individuals, but that's just me.

Blakely i think is a smart pick given how the cards have fallen here (Ideal world i think we go a De Goey/Duggan/Ahern though), Bevan addresses a definite need (although again, I favour a Cripps/Watchman/Fox because they can pinch hit in the ruck), and the Mclean pick i give a big tick to, considering we don't have anything like him at present.

Chuck in another mid and a ruck in the rookie draft and you've got me sold.

Yeah I've got time on my hands which is going to end in mid September so I'm just trying to smash everything out this month. Being a bit of a pedant and wanting to constantly re-structure doesn't help . Thanks for the kind words though!

I'd thought you might be tempted into the fifth purely because you're down a pick so it'd still leave you with three live selections + a rookie upgrade.

I don't think De Goey or Ahern are going to fall to your pick - Duggan might as from what I've heard he's not as high up on recruiter's boards as he is on mine but I still feel it's unlikely. Thought I hope for your sakes one of those do! Blakely's a really nifty player and someone I'd be stoked with at 19. High character bloke too. Cripps, Watchman and Fox are all similar at least in dimensions and style (but much worse) to what you've already got in Daniher and potentially Carlisle. I'm a fan of balance in general and Bevan if he were to reach his ceiling (at least in my opinion) is far better for balance than the aforementioned and adds a bit of a point of difference, something the others don't do. I think Cripps and Watchman both have overstated ruck ability and wouldn't be expecting them to chop out to a high standard; in fact I'd say if you told Bevan to do it he'd probably do just as average a job - he just hasn't been asked to you. I'm beginning to think McLean won't last till the fourth either unfortunately - think he might be a third round proposition.

 

[HereIam86]

Your missing GWS first pick.

 

[Skippos]

Your missing GWS first pick.

Doing a big update atm and saving progress regularly so I don't lose anything. Might be a little messy for the next little while.

 

[Mofra]

Good read - especially enjoyed the fact that even for the top prospects you've noted weaknesses in their game or things to work on.

Do you think there's much chance of Caleb Daniel going higher? If height is the only thing holding him back, a team of inside mids and bigger bodied mids may have the luxury of taking him earlier.

 

[Skippos]

Good read - especially enjoyed the fact that even for the top prospects you've noted weaknesses in their game or things to work on.

Do you think there's much chance of Caleb Daniel going higher? If height is the only thing holding him back, a team of inside mids and bigger bodied mids may have the luxury of taking him earlier.

It's possible but from what I've heard it's unlikely. I think he's worth the punt with a third in a draft like this with the fact that he's not genuinely electric in straight lines the only real flaw in his game. If a club reckons he can do what Lewis Taylor has done this year then yeah, they could punt on him - but given recruiters are defined by their selections I'd be surprised if one were to risk it so early on a 166-168cm bloke.

Stranger things have happened but I'd be surprised.

 

[Zach Package]

Yeah I've got time on my hands which is going to end in mid September so I'm just trying to smash everything out this month. Being a bit of a pedant and wanting to constantly re-structure doesn't help . Thanks for the kind words though!

I'd thought you might be tempted into the fifth purely because you're down a pick so it'd still leave you with three live selections + a rookie upgrade.

I don't think De Goey or Ahern are going to fall to your pick - Duggan might as from what I've heard he's not as high up on recruiter's boards as he is on mine but I still feel it's unlikely. Thought I hope for your sakes one of those do! Blakely's a really nifty player and someone I'd be stoked with at 19. High character bloke too. Cripps, Watchman and Fox are all similar at least in dimensions and style (but much worse) to what you've already got in Daniher and potentially Carlisle. I'm a fan of balance in general and Bevan if he were to reach his ceiling (at least in my opinion) is far better for balance than the aforementioned and adds a bit of a point of difference, something the others don't do. I think Cripps and Watchman both have overstated ruck ability and wouldn't be expecting them to chop out to a high standard; in fact I'd say if you told Bevan to do it he'd probably do just as average a job - he just hasn't been asked to you. I'm beginning to think McLean won't last till the fourth either unfortunately - think he might be a third round proposition.

Here's hoping. Our recruiting has been exceptional of late, so i'll back in whoever we pick in any event. I just don't think Bevan suits us tbh, he's similar to Ambose but wouldn't offer us that manic pressure and ground game, which is what makes Ambrose so good for someone that's 195cms ish. Plus I feel like Fox in particular could be developed as our 3rd primary ruckman, but with that ability to move forward and hit the scoreboard.

But as I said, the idea is spot on, IMO it's very likely to be big/small/Ambrose or small/big/Ambrose

 

[Doggone]

Hi Skippos, you've got Kyle Langford as a small back!! He's about 191, I think playing CHF at Knights

Also wondering how far lower Reece Mckenzie will go, if he nails a few tomorrow against quality opp

 

[Banshee23]

G’day Skippos

For Adelaide, is Reece McKenzie worth a punt if he is available late enough in the 2nd or 3rd round?

I’m aware of Adelaide’s more pressing needs in a KPD and outside pace, but do you think we should consider replenishing our KPF stocks with some young talent? Pods will move on soon and I’m not sure LJ and Smack will last. Reece also has the capacity to ruck?

Personally, I like the sound of Lever, Ahern & Laverde … Thoughts?

 

[Skippos]

Hi Skippos, you've got Kyle Langford as a small back!! He's about 191, I think playing CHF at Knights

Also wondering how far lower Reece Mckenzie will go, if he nails a few tomorrow against quality opp

Yeah there are plenty of players who are utilities so I've tried to list what I think their best position is. Langford isn't going to play key forward at the next level and will need to be attractive as either a forward or back flanker type to make it.

Personally I reckon his skill set suits better to playing off a back flank and that's what I'd be taking him as. But he does offer some real versatility which is always nice to have. At his current size when he puts on a few kilos he's bound to be a very different player so who knows what the future holds.

With Reece, he's a tough one. I don't really think he's going to go that high even if he kicks 8. I'd say 25 is the absolute earliest with 30-50 more realistic.

 

[Skippos]

G’day Skippos

For Adelaide, is Reece McKenzie worth a punt if he is available late enough in the 2nd or 3rd round?

I’m aware of Adelaide’s more pressing needs in a KPD and outside pace, but do you think we should consider replenishing our KPF stocks with some young talent? Pods will move on soon and I’m not sure LJ and Smack will last. Reece also has the capacity to ruck?

Personally, I like the sound of Lever, Ahern & Laverde … Thoughts?

With Reece I personally wouldn't. He's a very very long term proposition with it likely taking 4-5 years to get anything out of him and him being 24-25 before he's much more than a tree stump at afl level. While the end product might be appealing the fact that he's going to take so long would likely malign him with the supporters before he even plays, for one. But I just can't see his worth anyway. I'd be staying away unless our targets were all taken and he was there late third.

Agreed that the kpf stocks need something new. At our likely pick it'd be Goddard at best and I wouldn't want him as a forward. I'd be waiting until next year to look at high quality key forwards as we'll be able to fill a more pressing need in round one this year. I'd be absolutely stoked if Lever dropped to our pick. Perfect fit. I'd happily take Laverde if he doesn't. Ahern would be a plan C and I'd probably favour Weller but I still wouldn't be upset. Would prefer them all to marchbank.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Just starting to read through some of your updates now Skippos; really great work, thanks for that. Enjoying the read. Have a few questions if you don't mind as I'm always interested to get your perspective on players.

1. First of all, with the power rankings, are they how you see the players developing long-term, or simply how you rank them right now? I tend to lean towards the former with Wright at #1. If so, I'm interested in your thoughts on McCartin: you mention that you don't think McCartin ever becomes a top-tier key forward - I agree - yet have him third in your power rankings. Is this a reflection on how you view the draft's quality (or lack thereof)? As much as I do rate him as a long-term quality - but not elite - key forward, it does seem a little odd to have a second-tier guy that high up. Are you being generous because of the valuable position he plays (and the fact that most clubs are constantly on the lookout for a capable KPF), or do you really not see many prospective first-tier players in the draft this year?

2. I'm extremely harsh on players that aren't prepared to defend so it's no real surprise I'm not a huge fan of Pickett. You mention the two Jettas in your description - at this point, which way are you leaning more closely to him projecting as? Like you I'm not sure that his work rate (especially defensively) can be improved too much, even in an AFL system, and I can't name too many successful players that put in as little as he does. For me, poor work ethic and the lack of much of a contested game are two weaknesses that should never be mixed and I'm yet to be convinced that Jarrod can do enough to overturn either category. The better wingmen at AFL level will tear him and whatever team he plays for to shreds either on the inside or by running around by themselves on the outside in my opinion. That probably all sounds extremely harsh for a player with his skill set but I just haven't been sold on him yet. I compare him to a player like Laverde who probably possesses slightly less of an offensive game-breaking nature but more scope to develop an inside game as well as a much better work rate both ways, yet is rated lower by a considerable number of people.

3. Despite a lot of talk about the attitude factor and having shown very little consistency this year, Lamb is still talked up as a top 20 prospect. My question is pretty simple: why? I just haven't seen it, to be honest. He has some fantastic attributes and probably has the tools to develop into an AFL standard player, but for a player that is so raw and so flawed at present they desperately need the attitude and motivation to improve at a rapid enough rate to break into an AFL side. I don't imagine he gives a good impression in a lot of key psychological categories and I don't exactly see him acing interviews. He's my pick to drop considerably and am curious to hear some more details on why you think a club will look past his attitude based on what are essentially flashes of talent.

4. You have Jack Hayes listed as a key defender - is this where you see him projecting best at AFL level? I think you've probably seen my thoughts on the BF phantom as well as the Dogs board but I've been more impressed with his forward work in previous years than this year's key defensive efforts.

I may have other questions when I get a chance to read through round two and beyond but I'll leave it there for now. Don't stress about getting a response to me quickly, take your time - I realise I've asked a fair bit.

 

[Skippos]

Just starting to read through some of your updates now Skippos; really great work, thanks for that. Enjoying the read. Have a few questions if you don't mind as I'm always interested to get your perspective on players.

1. First of all, with the power rankings, are they how you see the players developing long-term, or simply how you rank them right now? I tend to lean towards the former with Wright at #1. If so, I'm interested in your thoughts on McCartin: you mention that you don't think McCartin ever becomes a top-tier key forward - I agree - yet have him third in your power rankings. Is this a reflection on how you view the draft's quality (or lack thereof)? As much as I do rate him as a long-term quality - but not elite - key forward, it does seem a little odd to have a second-tier guy that high up. Are you being generous because of the valuable position he plays (and the fact that most clubs are constantly on the lookout for a capable KPF), or do you really not see many prospective first-tier players in the draft this year?

It's essentially the order I'd take them when considering best available only. I take a more long termist view to best available but I also consider risk and reward. I think McCartin's a fairly safe bet to get to that second tier of KPFs so while he's not elite, I personally reckon he's a very likely bet to still be a very relevant component of a team. If you look at the current batch of second tier KPFs (and though some might be better than others) - Walker, Pavlich, Lynch, Petrie, Schulz, Westhoff, Tippett, JJ Kennedy spring to mind - well, all of those I'd say are/would be if they were younger worth a top 5 pick. In McCartin you're getting someone who should reach that tier. While the reward isn't as high as some of the former top 3-5 KPFs, the risk I'd argue is less. Wright carries a lot more risk but with that comes the potential to hit that A grade. To win a flag you've got to be better than 17 other teams - so I believe that risks like Wright are worth taking because chances are, a team full of the 'safe bets' might be 3rd or 4th best, but rarely first.

I have no doubt there'll be A graders from this draft. Right now I just can't see it, most years they're there. Wright has the potential to get there but isn't a better than evens shot of getting there. Brayshaw's the midfield version of McCartin - someone who's very likely to get to that B grade but probably lacking the tools to be an A grader. Petracca could conceivably get there and while I think he's a better shot than Brayshaw, he's still in my opinion that second tier B grade player. I do think that key forwards win flags - and to get even a B grade KPF I'd be happy to spend a top 3-10 pick.

Right now I'm not a massive fan of the top end. Either risk/reward with more risk than likely reward or safe bets to be good but not elite players. I'd probably prefer Boyd, Aish, Billings and Bonts from last year to what's on offer here with Kelly and McDonald very close.

2. I'm extremely harsh on players that aren't prepared to defend so it's no real surprise I'm not a huge fan of Pickett. You mention the two Jettas in your description - at this point, which way are you leaning more closely to him projecting as? Like you I'm not sure that his work rate (especially defensively) can be improved too much, even in an AFL system, and I can't name too many successful players that put in as little as he does. For me, poor work ethic and the lack of much of a contested game are two weaknesses that should never be mixed and I'm yet to be convinced that Jarrod can do enough to overturn either category. The better wingmen at AFL level will tear him and whatever team he plays for to shreds either on the inside or by running around by themselves on the outside in my opinion. That probably all sounds extremely harsh for a player with his skill set but I just haven't been sold on him yet. I compare him to a player like Laverde who probably possesses slightly less of an offensive game-breaking nature but more scope to develop an inside game as well as a much better work rate both ways, yet is rated lower by a considerable number of people.

A slightly better (he's just a little smarter offensively and slightly more skilled) Lewis Jetta is the best case scenario. Leroy is what'll happen if he continues to float around like a seagull. I'm inclined to say that he'll at least fix his offensive work rate and from an offensive point of view I'd say the 'Lewis Jetta' is very likely to happen. Defensively I think Leroy, still. But even then, I wouldn't give a top 10 pick for a Lewis Jetta type - especially when they don't put out defensively.

With Pickett as opposed to Laverde you just know he's going to end up a relevant at AFL level. Like, I dislike the kid but I know he'll play games and I can say with some conviction that he'll follow a similar career path to Jetta - at least numbers wise. While he's a liability he's also, to an extent, a known quantity. Having played some okay football at WAFL level over the last month helps. Laverde still doesn't have that defined role and real runs on the board
(which is why I'd love to see more integration of high level TAC cup players into the VFL). So I get why people see it that way while not agreeing with them. I agree with your sentiments, really.

Weller is someone I like to compare with Pickett. In terms of pace Weller still runs a 2.85 compared to Pickett's 2.80. He's still fast. He's got a better inside game and more scope to develop one. He works harder both offensively and defensively and by foot he's considerable more effective and penetrating. The cost of that is a downgrade from 2.8 to 2.85 in a 20 metre dash and less of a tendency to break lines. That's it. I don't get how Weller's slid so far below him.

3. Despite a lot of talk about the attitude factor and having shown very little consistency this year, Lamb is still talked up as a top 20 prospect. My question is pretty simple: why? I just haven't seen it, to be honest. He has some fantastic attributes and probably has the tools to develop into an AFL standard player, but for a player that is so raw and so flawed at present they desperately need the attitude and motivation to improve at a rapid enough rate to break into an AFL side. I don't imagine he gives a good impression in a lot of key psychological categories and I don't exactly see him acing interviews. He's my pick to drop considerably and am curious to hear some more details on why you think a club will look past his attitude based on what are essentially flashes of talent.

People love flash & x-factor. At 192/193 he's incredibly fast and agile. Very much so. His ability to get down to ground level quickly is elite as is his cleanness at ground level. Seeing a 6'4 bloke picking up balls at ground level with one hand while running at top speed (which, even as far as top speeds go, is fast) is just exciting. If he's able to do that - what else can he do? I think that's how people are seeing it - especially with the numbers he put up early season/last year. Versatility helps. He's very creative with ball in hand and spots up targets most can't - though execution is lacking at times. There's a lot of upside and in a fair weak crop you could do worse than back your system to develop that upside with a 15-25 pick.

I agree with the sentiment again though, I wouldn't be doing it because I just hate laziness and I know how hard it is to remove from someone's game. You can improve it but it'll always still be there and re-emerge at inconvenient times. I've got him at 40 in my power rankings purely because, as aforementioned, you can do a lot worse that back your system to harness what he offers - worst case you've lost an early third rounder which rarely succeed anyway.

If Lamb wasn't (seemingly) a pretty bad bloke and had a work ethic on the field I'd have him top 10. I think if he had the desire to get the best out of himself on the track and ran harder during games he could conceivably become a tall inside leaning mid in the fyfe/bontempelli mold. However he doesn't - which rules out that option IMO as it'd require some real effort to develop certain areas of his game. Even without that avenue considered he just does enough good things to indicate he could make a very special footballer. I hate that I do but I really like what he can do.

4. You have Jack Hayes listed as a key defender - is this where you see him projecting best at AFL level? I think you've probably seen my thoughts on the BF phantom as well as the Dogs board but I've been more impressed with his forward work in previous years than this year's key defensive efforts.

I may have other questions when I get a chance to read through round two and beyond but I'll leave it there for now. Don't stress about getting a response to me quickly, take your time - I realise I've asked a fair bit.

Appreciate the kind words earlier btw. I'm gradually rewriting my profiles to be a little more info/analysis laden and more concise so I'd wait a week or two to read the next bit

Regarding Hayes, yeah calling him a KPD probably wasn't the best fit - though it's where he played for SA predominantly. He's a tweener who more than likely won't be drafted, if I'm to be perfectly honest. At 191 defensively he's limited by his size and he's just too slow to man up on anyone with agility. I like his read of the game and I like his skills and I really like his contested marking but yeah, as a defender he's too slow to match up on the opponents someone of his size would need to. He really does look taller than 191 to be honest. Amazed he is. While I like what he did this year in defense I don't think it's translatable. That Laverde goal when matched up on him spoke volumes to me.

As a forward he's someone who's a really natural read of the ball in flight and skilled contested mark so I'd say he's a better fit there. Works hard defensively pressure wise but athletically limited. And while he might be a bit of a one trick pony we've seen with Casboult that if your one trick is contested marking then you can still be an okay AFL player. Hayes has a more rounded game than Casboult but at 191 again, clubs just aren't going to want you if you're that height and one dimensional. He's probably the one player who's most badly effected by being the wrong height. Add 5cm on and he could conceivably be a top 20 prospect.

While I rate him and would take the punt purely because he's a natural footballer and I prefer that to athleticism, I get that he's very limited in the modern game. I'd like to see him spend a year in the SANFL, hopefully get some senior games and lose 10 kilos of fat and replace it with a few kilos of muscle and see how that effects his game and if it improves his athleticism to a passable standard. If he can do that he's definitely worth it, but right now he's just too limited which is a real disappointment.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Thanks a lot for that, some interesting insights. I'm a little more bullish on Hayes than you are but I can see where you're coming from with everything and pretty much agree with everything else you've written. Looking forward to reading the rest of it. Hopefully I get enough time soonish to write my own phantom so I can stop hijacking everybody else's threads.

 

[Wizard17]

Going to be interesting with the dogs having 4 rookie selections this year. In saying that I see from the looks of some players who have gone through your phantom unselected there are still going to be good players available.

Thanks a lot for that, some interesting insights. I'm a little more bullish on Hayes than you are but I can see where you're coming from with everything and pretty much agree with everything else you've written. Looking forward to reading the rest of it. Hopefully I get enough time soonish to write my own phantom so I can stop hijacking everybody else's threads.

Bookmarking Hayes to the dogs in that Phantom

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Going to be interesting with the dogs having 4 rookie selections this year. In saying that I see from the looks of some players who have gone through your phantom unselected there are still going to be good players available.




Bookmarking Hayes to the dogs in that Phantom

Haha, I've played some cards closer to my chest than others. Do like Hayes though.

 

[Wizard17]

I haven't played the Toby McLean card close to my chest either seeings as Hayes wasn't invited to the combine I'd say he is a rookie chance, it would be nice to have a tall or two on our rookie list

Haha, I've played some cards closer to my chest than others. Do like Hayes though.

 

[x_les_x]

Your first round up to about 15 looks pretty spot on great job. I will be very pleased if we snag ahern, don't think we will take wigg with our second as he is way too similar to Sammy c and we have enough half back flankers imo. Which couple of players do you think would be in our range for rounds 2 and 3 besides the ones you have listed?

 

[Skippos]

Your first round up to about 15 looks pretty spot on great job. I will be very pleased if we snag ahern, don't think we will take wigg with our second as he is way too similar to Sammy c and we have enough half back flankers imo. Which couple of players do you think would be in our range for rounds 2 and 3 besides the ones you have listed?

I think people too often mistake depth for quality. While you've got some depth at half back I'd probably say if you lack anything it's perhaps a genuine top grade half back. At that stage in the draft Wigg's probably the best bet. Though I'd probably be taking Wigg in the hope that he can develop into a really penetrating outside mid.

As for who'll be there - it's really difficult to project this far out. Who you take depends on identified needs and who the recruiters like. There'll be the odd slider of course, but I'd probably be looking at the Wigg, Keitel, Capiron, Castagna, Gore, Miller, Cunico, Glenn, Webb and Anderson types around the late second round. In the third it'd be types like Watchman, Bevan, Cripps, Hamilton, Rose, Evans, McGrath and Ramsay, at a guess.

 

[JAMES_B_101]

It may not quite belong here but I thought I'd ask anyway, but Skippos is there any chance you could put together a few highlights videos of some of the better performed bottom aged players at the champs too? Just out of interest, as I'd like to see what they offer - Mathieson, Tucker, Mills... there has been a lot of talk about them being better than this year's mids.

 

[Skippos]

It may not quite belong here but I thought I'd ask anyway, but Skippos is there any chance you could put together a few highlights videos of some of the better performed bottom aged players at the champs too? Just out of interest, as I'd like to see what they offer - Mathieson, Tucker, Mills... there has been a lot of talk about them being better than this year's mids.

Nope.

When I did the vids I just 'scrapbooked' each individual game, so cut them apart and put it in different sections for different players. It allowed me to cover many players in less time. The down side to that was that I had to choose the players to do it for in advance.

If I were to go and make 3-4 more vids now it'd take as long as it took to make the 65 I did before. And quite simply the videos get such little cash I'd be doing it for free and I don't have the 15-20 hours spare I'd need to do it.

Sorry mate. I did do Mills and Keays videos though - they can all be found in this playlist

 

[JAMES_B_101]

Nope.

When I did the vids I just 'scrapbooked' each individual game, so cut them apart and put it in different sections for different players. It allowed me to cover many players in less time. The down side to that was that I had to choose the players to do it for in advance.

If I were to go and make 3-4 more vids now it'd take as long as it took to make the 65 I did before. And quite simply the videos get such little cash I'd be doing it for free and I don't have the 15-20 hours spare I'd need to do it.

Sorry mate. I did do Mills and Keays videos though - they can all be found in this playlist

Thanks anyway, keays looks a really nice player already. Next year's mid group seem to have done really well at the championships from all reports.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Connor Menadue (VIC – Mid/Fwd)
Height: 188cm, Weight: 69kg, DOB: 19/09/1996
Recruited from: Western Jets
Range: 15-rookie
Profile: Explosive type with versatility.

Skippos can you tell me about this kid.
He's a lovely size but very skinny.
What's his inside game like ?
How quick is he ?
Footskill's ?

My worry with the skinny types, do they like hitting the weights ?
If they don't show enthusiasm for the weight room, don't draft don't want Pitt/Notte type,
that wont do the gym work want a Fyfe type that loves

 

[Tank Girl]

I am semi-confident Caleb Hislop will be drafted, maybe even a late pick in the ND. Good rookie chance. There was an article in the paper the other day said ten clubs had interviewed him at the state combine and that he performed really well there.

 

[eth-dog]

I am semi-confident Caleb Hislop will be drafted, maybe even a late pick in the ND. Good rookie chance. There was an article in the paper the other day said ten clubs had interviewed him at the state combine and that he performed really well there.

If his skills are better than his brothers I'd take him