Slow start to 2008 or not?

Corpuscles

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Thread starter #1
Just interested in what you think about this years draw?

Can the SWANS afford to be slow out of the blocks as per all other years?

Saints - TD ( a bogy side esp now a clone, expected to be top8)
Port - SCG ( GF'ists albeit Syd have often had their measure)
Brisbane -GABBA ( depleted last year ,on the rise!!!! with Brown + Bradshaw)
WCE - Telstra S ( Finalists, bitter rivals and rebounding)
Geelong - Skilled ( Reining Premiers at their dung hill)
Kangaroos - TD ( Keen to build a fan base and top 4 last yr)
Bulldogs - SCG ( Forget last yr plenty young guns)

Swans play all these except Kangaroos twice in 2008 plus the rising Collingwood - another bogy team)

Am I being paranoid or negative or just lack faith?????

If they don't start very competitively (exceptionally well) against what appears to be first 7 weeks of genuine finals contenders (esp at home) the win loss after 7 could look very ugly?

Thoughts?
 

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Corpuscles

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Thread starter #3
I agree with you except that i think the Swans will win either the Saints or Kangaroos game.
The red was just highlighting the home games!

Tough to beat both Port and WCE... the way they Sydney usually start ??? and then only get 7 weeks and have a return game against WCE at Subi!!!
 

RUNVS

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#4
The red was just highlighting the home games!

Tough to beat both Port and WCE... the way they Sydney usually start ??? and then only get 7 weeks and have a return game against WCE at Subi!!!
Blue - Win
Red - Lose
Black - Too close to call

1. Saints - TD - Its really a 50/50
2. Port - SCG - Win as we are at the SCG and Port have been our bunnies for years
3. Brisbane - GABBA - Really difficult to say but the Swans can win if they play well
4. WCE - Telstra S - God only knows. West Coast have lost some good players but they did have the wood over us last season
5. Geelong - Skilled - Will probably lose but i dont think Geelong will be as good as last season.
6. Kangaroos - TD - Another 50/50 match
7. Bulldogs - SCG - If we cant win this match then the Swans dont deserve to make the finals

So thats 2 win, 1 loss and 3 too close to call.
 

bloods01

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#5
I think the slow starts in recent years can be partly contirbuted to us playing deep in the finals and having some player's participating in the Ireland series. From all reports this year will be somewhat different. With the exception of Spider, Hall, and Kennelly, most of the group have been training for some time now.

It's really difficult to put lines through which games we will win or lose at this time of the year. It's a vey tough start and if you told me that we would be 4 wins / 3 losses after Round 7, I would take it. On the other hand if we find oursleves at 2 and 5 or something, we might be in a bit of trouble.
 

CAS79

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#6
Its certainly not an easy start to the season.

Though it will give us an indicator as to where were headed 2008. The team should be fresher than last year at the start and need to be about at least even by this run of matches to be a chance of meaningful finals. I'd like to see us even better than even and make an early statement to the competition, were back for 2008.
 

Sanecow

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#8
I think the slow starts in recent years can be partly contirbuted to us playing deep in the finals and having some player's participating in the Ireland series.
That's the excuse that's been trotted out, anyway. I wonder what they'll use this year? If LRT is back to his uncoordinated best and Spida and Hall are both fit then I'd expect a better return than 0 wins in the first half dozen games. Ever optimistic!
 

Corpuscles

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Blue - Win
Red - Lose
Black - Too close to call

1. Saints - TD - Its really a 50/50
2. Port - SCG - Win as we are at the SCG and Port have been our bunnies for years
3. Brisbane - GABBA - Really difficult to say but the Swans can win if they play well
4. WCE - Telstra S - God only knows. West Coast have lost some good players but they did have the wood over us last season
5. Geelong - Skilled - Will probably lose but i dont think Geelong will be as good as last season.
6. Kangaroos - TD - Another 50/50 match
7. Bulldogs - SCG - If we cant win this match then the Swans dont deserve to make the finals

So thats 2 win, 1 loss and 3 too close to call.
1. Saints - TD - 55/45 favouring slightly the home side but SWANS MUST WIN to get off to a good start given the draw!

2. Port - SCG - Coming off GF Replay albeit at AAMI which is a likely loss so will be keen to get 4 points. But Port have been poor at SCG so WIN

3. Brisbane - GABBA - They will have WCE away then their bogy Collingwood at home they might be 0-2 (but deserving of better) and super desperate. But GABBA has seen some remarkable Swan WINS!

4. WCE - Telstra S - Coming off a derby after Lions(H) Crows (A) ought be battered after the derby. SWANS must turn the table it is their turn WIN

5. Geelong - Skilled - Coming off an easy run but bloody hard to beat them at Kardina Pk Could be the statement game of the season close 1 point WIN!?

6. Kangaroos - TD - Only will have met Hawks and coming off playing Colliwobbles that will have troubled them. They were lucky last yr so WIN!

7. Bulldogs - SCG - Their kiddies just don't play well at SCG WIN!


Thanks you lot are SO much more positive, so I have conjured up some myself!:D

Don't know whether it would be a good thing or not to be
7-0! or 6-1?
Yeah Dreamin!!!

I would be happy if they scrape 4-3! or even 3-4

Please Please Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! not 0-3 start! ... then again the Ill-E-gals game at TS would then become a bloodbath!!!!:thumbsu::D
 

is2SWaNz

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#10
I think the slow starts in recent years can be partly contirbuted to us playing deep in the finals and having some player's participating in the Ireland series.
I agree. With a new look to the side and some changes where we see new faces and possibly blooding in young guns, it could just be the fuel to fire us up. In conjunction with our dismal 2007 season, this may been seen as "a blessing in disguise". Also, to mention a change in the leadership group with Baz stepping down, and the possible inclusions of O'Keefe, Ablett :)D) and Kennelly, it may as well seem that slow starts may be a thing of the past. :thumbsu:

God I hope so.
 

RUNVS

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#11
I would be happy if they scrape 4-3! or even 3-4

Please Please Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! not 0-3 start! ... then again the Ill-E-gals game at TS would then become a bloodbath!!!!:thumbsu::D
It will never happen. The Swans have had the wood over Port for many many years (even when Port were a force back in the early 2000's) and i cant see Port beating the Swans at the SCG next year. If Sydney lose then i will be eternally shocked.
 

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liz

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#12
I think there are two factors at work.

Firstly, teams that play deep into the finals do have a shorter pre-season than those who miss the 8 or exit the finals in the early rounds. Also, the chances are that they have played football at a consistently more intense level than non-finals teams and so may have more battered and bruised bodies. Hence it is not unexpected that they will take longer to get most of their important players at top fitness.

A separate issue, though, is whether it is possible to keep your squad of players at peak fitness for a full 26 weeks. Past slow starts may have been partly due to a shorter pre-season but I suspect they also reflect a deliberate tactic of aiming at achieving full fitness towards the end of the season rather than burning out early. So many times teams have come out of the blocks firing and looked invincible for at least half a season, but have been unable to sustain that intensity. Sure, luck plays some part in a team getting injuries but Sydney's own fitness achievements over the past few years indicate that there is more to it than just pure luck.

If Sydney go into 2008 believing they are still a contender, we shoudn't expect them to come out in round 1 with all guns blazing. In particular, they'll be more concerned with how players like Magic, Hall and Spida are going to be feeling in September than whether they are at their peaks in April.
 

liz

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#13
It will never happen. The Swans have had the wood over Port for many many years (even when Port were a force back in the early 2000's) and i cant see Port beating the Swans at the SCG next year. If Sydney lose then i will be eternally shocked.
Except in round 2 2006 when we all expected the reigning premiers to show it to Port and came away a little shell-shocked. They also beat us on our own turf in 2002 - although admittedly they were at the peak of their powers then and Sydney were in a transitional mode.
 
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Except in round 2 2006 when we all expected the reigning premiers to show it to Port and came away a little shell-shocked. They also beat us on our own turf in 2002 - although admittedly they were at the peak of their powers then and Sydney were in a transitional mode.
i think for now we have to stop looking at recent history ... while there are some historical factors relevant when certain teams play, i strongly believe we're going into this new season as a different side
we're not among the favoured contenders, and i believe that's fair enough, and probly a good thing ... the weight of expectation is not a good thing for players and we fans
but things are very different than in recetn seasons in terms of our preseason and where a number of players are in terms of their careers

there is reason to think we're going to see at least some new faces, so certainly for the early rounds of the new season it's difficult to predict how we'll fare, or predict the strength of a lot of the teams we play (eg saints, kangaroos)
we're setting ourselves up for major letdowns if we start targeting numbers of wins by certain stages in the season
i do believe that, as in recent seasons, the side will continue to improve as the season goes on, and there's no reason to think we won't start the year faster and in better nick than the past few years, but whether that means putting wins on the board is another matter
 

Corpuscles

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I think there are two factors at work.

Firstly, teams that play deep into the finals do have a shorter pre-season than those who miss the 8 or exit the finals in the early rounds. Also, the chances are that they have played football at a consistently more intense level than non-finals teams and so may have more battered and bruised bodies. Hence it is not unexpected that they will take longer to get most of their important players at top fitness.

A separate issue, though, is whether it is possible to keep your squad of players at peak fitness for a full 26 weeks. Past slow starts may have been partly due to a shorter pre-season but I suspect they also reflect a deliberate tactic of aiming at achieving full fitness towards the end of the season rather than burning out early. So many times teams have come out of the blocks firing and looked invincible for at least half a season, but have been unable to sustain that intensity. Sure, luck plays some part in a team getting injuries but Sydney's own fitness achievements over the past few years indicate that there is more to it than just pure luck.

If Sydney go into 2008 believing they are still a contender, we shoudn't expect them to come out in round 1 with all guns blazing. In particular, they'll be more concerned with how players like Magic, Hall and Spida are going to be feeling in September than whether they are at their peaks in April.
I agree entirely with your assessment. I feel certain slow starts were deliberate strategy, just as was non-committment to NAB Pre season comp.

BUT for some reason ( I don't know why?) The AFL have changed draw so that in the first 12 weeks Swans must double up St Kilda, WCE, Port

... that's 2 long hostile road trips and a troublesome clone team to play early this year and as they all are likely contenders means 8 point games.
Not to mention they have to play Geelong early too!

Previously they at least knew the "evener up game" was in last 7 when they would like to be peaking.

One of their other strategies in successful years is make sure they break even with games against the other top 8 contenders... if that happens then they become certain finalists without having to bust a gut early and every week!.. albeit it is getting more difficult to count Carlton Lastmond Freo (hm)and Bummers as should wins.
 

liz

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#17
Saying we have lots of early games against top 8 contenders doesn't mean much because - as with most years at this time of year but maybe even more than usual - you can argue for arpound 14 clubs being top 8 contenders.

If I had to name clubs to miss out I'd probably nominate Carlton, RIchmond and Essendon but nor would it completely surprise me to see any of these sneak into the bottom 8. I certainly think Carlton will be far more competitive this season with Judd, and with Gibbs and Murphy maturing. I don't really rate Richmond in any department - certainly not their coach - but Wallace has shown in previous years the ability to get them playing OK. Essendon surprised me this year and while they have Lloyd and Lucas on their lists they will remain a danger to whoever they play.

Some say Adelaide are on the way down but they are well coached, usually very fit and play hard, disciplined football. Melbourne significantly underachieved with their list last year, as did Freo. Not quite sure what to make of the Dogs but we know they can win games.

So I look at every single game we play next season and reckon we're up against a potential finals contender. Not just the first 7 rounds.
 
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#18
Saying we have lots of early games against top 8 contenders doesn't mean much because - as with most years at this time of year but maybe even more than usual - you can argue for arpound 14 clubs being top 8 contenders.

If I had to name clubs to miss out I'd probably nominate Carlton, RIchmond and Essendon but nor would it completely surprise me to see any of these sneak into the bottom 8. I certainly think Carlton will be far more competitive this season with Judd, and with Gibbs and Murphy maturing. I don't really rate Richmond in any department - certainly not their coach - but Wallace has shown in previous years the ability to get them playing OK. Essendon surprised me this year and while they have Lloyd and Lucas on their lists they will remain a danger to whoever they play.

Some say Adelaide are on the way down but they are well coached, usually very fit and play hard, disciplined football. Melbourne significantly underachieved with their list last year, as did Freo. Not quite sure what to make of the Dogs but we know they can win games.

So I look at every single game we play next season and reckon we're up against a potential finals contender. Not just the first 7 rounds.
liz, as with many other swans posters, i tend to agree with almost all you say (maybe not on the value of leo running with the ball), and look forward to your analyses of swans issues
i'd like to ask whether you visit the main board much, and read what other fans say about their own clubs' chances, and how they rate the swans
specifically, how some geelong fans think the cats are invincible; how carlton fans think judd/kreuzer means top 8 or better; how hawthorn fans think buddy is the second coming, and how they largely overrate so many of their players; how essendon fans seem so very deluded about their team's strengths; and how st kilda fans still believe they have the most talented list in the afl
i know it's a bit much, and if you don't bother on the main board, ignore this, but i've been more and more curious as the off-season progresses, as to what yourself and other wise swans fans think of the main board's posters
cheers
 

bloods01

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#19
liz, as with many other swans posters, i tend to agree with almost all you say (maybe not on the value of leo running with the ball), and look forward to your analyses of swans issues
i'd like to ask whether you visit the main board much, and read what other fans say about their own clubs' chances, and how they rate the swans
specifically, how some geelong fans think the cats are invincible; how carlton fans think judd/kreuzer means top 8 or better; how hawthorn fans think buddy is the second coming, and how they largely overrate so many of their players; how essendon fans seem so very deluded about their team's strengths; and how st kilda fans still believe they have the most talented list in the afl
i know it's a bit much, and if you don't bother on the main board, ignore this, but i've been more and more curious as the off-season progresses, as to what yourself and other wise swans fans think of the main board's posters
cheers
Glad I'm not the only one who thinks Leo should tame his urge to take player's on at every opportunity. :D
 
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#20
Glad I'm not the only one who thinks Leo should tame his urge to take player's on at every opportunity. :D
as i've said many times, if leo were in good form, or hadn't just come back from ongoing injury, or hadn't so obviously lost pace and his old judgment skills, then i'd have no problem, but there is NO POINT him taking players on, running with the ball, if he's a liability doing it, which is what the case was in 2007
 

diesel and dust

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#21
I think the slow starts in recent years can be partly contirbuted to us playing deep in the finals and having some player's participating in the Ireland series.
I agree. I am sure the early finish last year was used well and the boys will be ready to go.


I don't think that's the reason.......West Coast went 6 and 0, and 5 and 1, in the first 6 rounds in the year after they played in the grand finals against us.


I don't know the reason for our slow starts,but i don't think it's anything to do with half the competition getting 4 weeks extra rest...
 

nico

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#22
Roos has been quoted as saying that we will be much quicker out of the blocks in 2008 and with that draw we will have to be.
 
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