Pretty fair assessment of Milne and Betts.
Wizard Farmer at his absolute best - 2000 - was IMO the best I have seen (saw the very very end of Daicos’ career but not enough to appreciate it)
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Pretty fair assessment of Milne and Betts.
Wizard Farmer at his absolute best - 2000 - was IMO the best I have seen (saw the very very end of Daicos’ career but not enough to appreciate it)
There are a few things with these 3 guys Betts, Milne, Cyril, all excellent small forwards.
The first point is Betts and Milne played much closer to goal in a pretty similar role. Cyril spent much more time further from goal.
First thing to do is compare them from the same ages so as not to disadvantage anyone who played younger. Tiprat didn't play until he was 21yo. His first 2 years there were no goal assist stats. So let's take them all from the season that started in the year they turned 23yo, to get a comprehensive and fair comparison.
| Player | Goals average | Goal Assist average | G+GA Ave | Disposals | Contested Possessions | Tackles | Finals Disposals | Finals CP | Finals G + GA | Finals Tackles | Average goals scored all finals played in the sample | G + GA in finals as % of goals scored in those finals |
| Milne | 2.1 | 0.66 | 2.76 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.94 | 2.2 | 22.25 | 8.7% |
| Betts | 2.05 | 1.0 | 3.05 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 28.25 | 12.75% |
| Cyril | 1.55 | 1.0 | 2.55 | 14.6 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 15.3 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 26.75 | 9.35% |
So versus Betts, who played a very similar role to Milne it looks like no contest. Betts wins 28% more contests, has 10% more goals + goal assists, 60% more tackles across their careers. In finals the picture even moves more heavily into Betts' favour. So this is a straight out statistical no contest. I am picking Betts over Tiprat at every stage of their respective careers, home and away and finals.
Cyril v Tiprat there are some indicators in Tiprat's favour but not much to make me want to pick him before Cyril at any stage of their careers in any match, but particularly finals. Cyril is well within 10% of Tiprat for scoreboard impact but shift your focus to finals it switches to Cyril having a greater scoreboard impact. Possessions, contests, tackles, Cyril is way ahead.
If you are picking 2 of them then Eddie picks himself and imo Cyril plays Cyril's role or Milne's role better than Milne does, the stats show as much. There are also queries on Milne in big games, most of his impact shrinks in finals, especially scoreboard impact, his 1 wood. So he is well below the other pair for mine on any fair comparison.
Great spot. I often forget this little gun, who stood just 171cm. His 2.8 goals per game career record is superb, in Leigh Matthews territory. His 3.2 goals per final leaves anyone on the o/p list for dead. You don't hear Dick Harris spoken of too often, he didn't win a Brownlow, though in 3 of his best years there was no Brownlow to be won. He did however win a Coleman Medal, before Coleman even played. He topped Richmond's major roosters 3 times. He kicked 7 of the 23 goals in the match when Richmond won the 1943 Grand Final by 5 points. This is astonishing really when you consider the 7th most successful footballer in his family has lived off his 9 goal GF, and it was 9 of 42 in that ping pong match, which his team lost by 6 points.
Harris looks a total cert top 10 all time small forward to me, must have been a hell of a player.
It makes me wonder if there are other hidden gems like Titus and Harris at other clubs from these earlier eras...
167cm Carlton great "Diminutive" Vin Gardiner kicked 32 of 211 goals scored across 14 finals in a career spanning 1905-1917. So he has scored over 15% of the goals kicked in all finals he played in. He looks a shocking omission.
Another Tiger legend, 169cm Alby Pannam slotted 453 goals in 183 games for the filth in the prequel to his illustrious 2 game Richmond career.
Brownlow Medallist Des Fothergill, who stood 178cm averaged 3 goals per game both career and finals. His 11 finals averaged 29 goals though so were high scoring affairs.
Geelong's George Moloney stood 174cm and slotted 303 goals in 88 VFL matches around the early 1930's. A bit like Titus he somethimes play as an undersized FF. Moloney kicked 109 in 1932 in 18 matches but did not play finals that year. He also kicked the ton in the WAFL one year I think. His finals record was pretty plain though with 15 majors in 7 finals.
Jack Metherell another very tidy half forward for Cats kicked 221 goals in 65 games in the 1930's. He had a similar average across 4 finals, though these games averaged a relatively high 28+ goals.
Special mention to 165cm Roy Park who dobbed 53 of the 113 goals the winless University scored in the 1913 season, helping himself to a retrospective Coleman Medal in the process.
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I didn't mention Betts, so have no interest in the comparison. I only asked about Rioli and Milne.
What stats site did you use that showed goal assists from 2003, which is the year Milne turned 23 ?
I can only find GA from 2007.
Thanks. I'm very familiar with AFL Tables but tend to check Footywire for GA.
Although, I do find it highly amusing and predictable that you start the statistics in the year they turn 23 all because of your obsession with goal assists. You're very easy to read.
Funnily enough, in another thread I said to you that you should disregard comparisons between Ablett Jnr and Martin across their entire career because Ablett only averaged 15 disposals in his first 100 games, as he played exclusively as a forward, whereas Martin had pretty much had the same role throughout. You didn't agree with that thought premise. Yet here we are manipulating years / stats and truncating Milne's career due to ''fairness''.
I've already said Rioli was a better pressure forward than Milne, so one tick to Rioli.
Goal assists are your one wood in this analysis and show the grand total of half a percent difference in goal and goal assists across all finals.
I'll take the player that kicked over 50 goals 6 times over the one that never did it once. And that's no disrespect to the freakish Rioli. Goal-kicking is my number one metric for small fowards. It has a much higher rating than tackles, as important as they are.
And of course, this cherry picked analysis doesn't take into account the quality of their respective teams.
But thanks for sharing your stats.
Thanks. I'm very familiar with AFL Tables but tend to check Footywire for GA.
Although, I do find it highly amusing and predictable that you start the statistics in the year they turn 23 all because of your obsession with goal assists. You're very easy to read.
Funnily enough, in another thread I said to you that you should disregard comparisons between Ablett Jnr and Martin across their entire career because Ablett only averaged 15 disposals in his first 100 games, as he played exclusively as a forward, whereas Martin had pretty much had the same role throughout. You didn't agree with that thought premise. Yet here we are manipulating years / stats and truncating Milne's career due to ''fairness''.
I've already said Rioli was a better pressure forward than Milne, so one tick to Rioli.
Goal assists are your one wood in this analysis and show the grand total of half a percent difference in goal and goal assists across all finals.
I'll take the player that kicked over 50 goals 6 times over the one that never did it once. And that's no disrespect to the freakish Rioli. Goal-kicking is my number one metric for small fowards. It has a much higher rating than tackles, as important as they are.
And of course, this cherry picked analysis doesn't take into account the quality of their respective teams.
But thanks for sharing your stats.
You are connecting unrelated dots here. I cannot be credibly accused of bias in this comparison. I have simply found a fair way to compare these 3 players whose careers overlapped, but started at different ages. Betts and Rioli were relatively brilliant in their first 4 and 5 years so I am confident their 21yo+ comparison would be similar to the 23+yo one I have presented.
Also, I didn't make goal assists up. They are a recorded stat that is very relevant to the role of a mid or forward. You can simply ignore them if you like but I wouldn't take any comparison you make seriously if you did. Your x goals y times in career means little in isolation, imo. It doesn't for example account for the players ability to win contests, his overall scoreboard impact or how many games he played.
I have given you a comprehensive explanation for my rating Rioli above Milne and given you the facts the assessment is based on. In my opinion they show clearly that Rioli was a better small forward than Milne, comfortably, and way better in finals where we see how good players actually are when it matters most.
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Winston abraham probably just misses this conversation due to injury, but damn he was good
From what i recall since 1990
1-brad johnson
2-peter daicos
3-cyril rioli
4-eddie betts
5-steve milne
6-jeff farmer
7-phil matera
8-darren jarman (crows years)
9-luke breust
10-nathan brown
From what i recall since 1990
1-brad johnson
2-peter daicos
3-cyril rioli
4-eddie betts
5-steve milne
6-jeff farmer
7-phil matera
8-darren jarman (crows years)
9-luke breust
10-nathan brown
VinnieB
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Yeah, I think Milne was better than Rioli and Betts. He played quite a few seasons when the Saints were absolutely terrible and still performed.Thanks. I'm very familiar with AFL Tables but tend to check Footywire for GA.
Although, I do find it highly amusing and predictable that you start the statistics in the year they turn 23 all because of your obsession with goal assists. You're very easy to read.
Funnily enough, in another thread I said to you that you should disregard comparisons between Ablett Jnr and Martin across their entire career because Ablett only averaged 15 disposals in his first 100 games, as he played exclusively as a forward, whereas Martin had pretty much had the same role throughout. You didn't agree with that thought premise. Yet here we are manipulating years / stats and truncating Milne's career due to ''fairness''.
I've already said Rioli was a better pressure forward than Milne, so one tick to Rioli.
Goal assists are your one wood in this analysis and show the grand total of half a percent difference in goal and goal assists across all finals.
I'll take the player that kicked over 50 goals 6 times over the one that never did it once. And that's no disrespect to the freakish Rioli. Goal-kicking is my number one metric for small fowards. It has a much higher rating than tackles, as important as they are.
And of course, this cherry picked analysis doesn't take into account the quality of their respective teams.
But thanks for sharing your stats.
Unfortunately, his grubbiness clouds how good his career was.
Robbie Gray
Junior Rioli
Orazio Fantasia
Daniel Motlop
Brett Ebert
Stephen Milne
Edward Betts
Jason Akermanis
Byron Pickett
Steve Johnson
Junior Rioli
Orazio Fantasia
Daniel Motlop
Brett Ebert
Stephen Milne
Edward Betts
Jason Akermanis
Byron Pickett
Steve Johnson
One small forward kicked 275 goals and the other small forward kicked 574 goals, i.e more than double.
One kicked 50+ goals 0 times and the other kicked 50+ goals 6 times.
Yet somehow, according to you, the first is demonstrably a better small forward than the second. In large part due to the quality of the finals team he played in in the years referenced.
I agree that Rioli is far more than just his goal tally. But, across their entire careers, one small forward, whose primary role is to kick goals, has been the better small forward. Goal assists and tackles don't change the equation for me.
Engimal v3
**** m**nl*nd*rs
Since 2000 I'd have the Tiprat and Betts as my top 2.
Milne criminally underrated these days.
Milne criminally underrated these days.
Rioli played 143 matches including the year in which he turned 21. He got 377 goals + goal assists in those 143 matches. 2.64 average.
Milne played 275 games all after turning 21. He got around 740 goals + goal assists. 2.69 average.
This shows there was little difference in scoreboard impact between the two players when you compare like for like. We seen in my earlier post Cyril has Milne covered outright for scoreboard impact in finals.
We have also already shown Rioli is miles ahead for contested possessions, disposals, tackles, and finals performance. Milne played in strong teams long enough for that not to be a significant issue. I thought St Kilda were supposed to be some sort of "super team" during part of Milne's career? Rioli was also a Norm Smith Medallist and selected in the AA team in 3 of the only 4 seasons he played 19 or more home and away matches after reaching the age of 21. Milne did not achieve AA selection until age 31, and again at 32. He played 19 or more home and away matches in 10 separate seasons.
You can take Milne on any basis you like. For mine it is not even debatable, Rioli has it all over Milne as a small forward. You can only make Milne look better by eliminating every stat bar goals kicked and quoting aggregate career goals, in a career where Milne played almost twice as many matches as Cyril after the age of 21. No disrespect to Milne, he was a very good small forward. But if you drafted him and left me Cyril I would not believe my good luck. Different class of footballer.
Rioli was more a high pressure forward who helped lock the ball in his half, whereas Milne was more a hungry goal sneak
Volume of goals and games played wins out for me when assessing their overall careers.
Rioli finishing shy of 150 games doesn't help him in a direct comparison to someone who played almost double his tally.
Milne did play in a good team but not always. You cherry picked Rioli's stats from 2013, ie beginning of their flag streak.
I do find it amusing though that you reference All Australians when you dismiss All Australians when discussing Martin, who's only won 4 compared to other mids who've won 8. But suddenly it's important when assessing Rioli and Milne.
I saw their careers.
Rioli was a wonderful player but only kicked 40 odd goals twice.
When assessing the greatest small forwards of all time it's this lack of goal production that heavily reduces his legacy for me in comparison to other greats. Retiring on 140 odd games also doesn't help. Clearly longevity is a metric to consider.
"small"
Volume of goals and games played wins out for me when assessing their overall careers.
Rioli finishing shy of 150 games doesn't help him in a direct comparison to someone who played almost double his tally.
Milne did play in a good team but not always. You cherry picked Rioli's stats from 2013, ie beginning of their flag streak.
I do find it amusing though that you reference All Australians when you dismiss All Australians when discussing Martin, who's only won 4 compared to other mids who've won 8. But suddenly it's important when assessing Rioli and Milne.
Rioli played over 180 games in all, just he played 140 odd from the year in which he turned 21, which is when Milne started playing.
The reason I referred to AA selections here is simply because the players have not got a lot of history regarding other awards. When you cascade down from the most to least important awards or performances, it is Rioli doing better at every turn.
Finals performance: Rioli clearly better against every measurable statistic bar goals kicked only. Milne got 25 from 16 finals, Rioli 22 from 19. But when you assess scoring impact properly by adding goal assists Rioli goes comfortably ahead.
Finals Awards: Rioli has a Norm Smith Medal from 5 Grand Finals where Milne has no finals awards and played in 3 matches where Smith Medals were awarded. I cannot find records of voting for these matches but Milne will not have received a vote in those 3 matches and averaged under 9 disposals, just over 4 contested possessions, 1.33 goals + goal assists, 2 tackles, and even managed to give away 6 free kicks without winning any. This is poor performance for a player under this sort of consideration.
Coaches votes: Rioli 1.65 per gams whole career. Milne 0.69 per game peak years only.
Brownlow votes: Milne 37 from 275 matches. Rioli 44 from 189 matches.
AA selections: Milne 2 from 10 seasons with 19 or more home and away matches. Cyril 3 from 5 seasons 19 or more home and away matches(one was as an 18-19yo).
So whilst AA selection is an unreliable guide, in the case of these two players it is consistent with other awards and big game performance. You have literally found the only metric, actual goals kicked, where Milne is ahead. And this of course is due to the difference in their roles and playing styles. I think it is beyond doubt that if you put Rioli in Milne's role he outplays Milne, and if you put Milne in Rioli's role he doesn't get near outplaying Cyril.
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Don't give a s**t really, but I know which one I'd rather have in my side
You said he played 140 odd, so 140 odd it is
I'm taking Milne's career as a small forward. Naturally, you can please yourself.
And Port have had a plethora of goal-kicking small forwards LOL
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I don't think I've seen a small forward with as much presence as Cyril. Not quantifiable on the stat sheet but would see seasoned defensive guns make the silliest mistakes with him in the forward line. Closest player today would be Pickett. Neither gave any defender time nor space and would have generated scoring opportunities for their fellow forwards from defensive actions alone.
Had some great battles with Enright where I think they would have shared the honours across the games. Few times Enright held him goalless, and a few times Cyril made him look silly.
I never got that impression when watching Milne or Betts (Betts would make defenders look silly for other reasons).
Had some great battles with Enright where I think they would have shared the honours across the games. Few times Enright held him goalless, and a few times Cyril made him look silly.
I never got that impression when watching Milne or Betts (Betts would make defenders look silly for other reasons).
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Robbie Gray might be trending towards medium forward went alright and if played in an earlier era could easily of kicked more goals than he did
Yep - Milne and Betts have been the barometer of traditional small forward craft over that timeframe (I'd have Betts shading Milne).
Speaking of underrated, I also think that by the time he retires, Luke Breust will at least be the equal of Milne.
They both have won 2 All Australians (and both led their club goalkicking 4 times).
Milne kicked 574 goals. Breust has 481 and a few years left to catch Milne.
Milne, as good as he was, however, was all and only goals (and very goal hungry
).Breust is top 10 all time now for goal assists and still going. He also pushes up the ground more and gets more of the ball than Milne did. He is also far more defensive, averaging more than double the tackles of Milne.
I would also rate Breust the better finals performer of the two.
Milne's home and away goalkicking record is pretty unrivalled though (and indeed underrated). I think Breust is in a similar tier to Milne and his career will match up well post retirement.
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