Sniper Small Fowards - who do we want? Resting mids need not apply

Which Small Forward can we realistically get?


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Bamboo Harvester

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Sep 19, 2018
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OK be gentle, I’ve never started a thread before, but I had a bit of time to myself whilst on leave.

We’ve been banging on about it in other threads and our CEO has even stated it publicly - we are after a small forward. So I went through the 18 primary lists to see all the available candidates in the system - I left out rookies aside from Stack as I am presuming we want someone ready to go. Originally I thought this might be part of 2019 list management thread, but it’s not really, it’s about laying the small foward landscape out there in detail for all to see and having a BF poll on who we could REALISTICALLY target and acquire for 2020 in the upcoming trade period.

BlueAbroad - I know you guys have touched on this in one of your clips, but given our CEO’s comments, this might be an interesting topic for an in-depth stats assessment based on the poll results.

Now lets be real clear - I’m talking your real sniper small forwards who love pressure and goals - your Aaron Davey/Eddie Betts/ Steven Milne types. I’m not talking about those high HFF’s that are really spare/developing mids, or those mids mature that haven’t made it in that position, as I think we have those bases well covered for now in JSOS, Fish, SPS, Gibbo, Dow, Kennedy, Setters, et al

OK so here is my full list including brief reason below - I haven’t checked contract status - and the ones I’ve deemed most likely have been put in the poll, along with state league and national draft options....lets discuss!!!

Adelaide (None in the poll)
  • Eddie - too old
  • Murphy - no shown enough yet
  • Stengle - just arrived, unlikely to move this off season
  • McAdam - unproven and could have had him last year if remotely interested
  • McHenry - like him but unproven at the level, talented, contracted and it’s Adealaide...price would outweigh performance to date
Brisbane (1 in the poll)
  • Charlie - no chance
  • McCarthy - highly unlikely given went there on 3 year deal, best mates with Neale, and Brissie firing
  • Lewis Taylor - yes as a sniper/pressure type, won the RS in front of the Bont so we know he has talent. Made to play further up ground by Leppa and stagnated. Now a clear 3rd choice, but I think he can play and would cost very little in $$$ and picks
  • Zorko - going nowhere
  • Christensen - age, injury and current standard put him well down the order
Collingwood (1 in the poll)
  • Elliott - Yes, gettable but buyer beware with his body, makes the poll but not sure he’d be at the top purely due to durability
  • Thomas - solid player but not what we’re after in terms of small fwd
  • Stevo - no chance Pies let him go anywhere
  • Daicos - showing a little bit this year, but unlikely given name and production levels

Essendon (1 in the poll)
  • Fantasia - no for me as the price would be too high - 2 years left on contract, plus already indicated to Ess he’s heading home
  • Tippa - Yes please....mystery to me as to why he remains out of contract
  • Mosquito - shown nothing yet, likely requires a lot of development
Fremantle (none in the poll)
  • Ballantyne - no, he’s cooked
  • Walters - unrealistic, I doubt he’s gettable, no noise to indicate he’d want a change and would cost plenty
  • Switkowski - not shown enough
  • Matera - just moved home to Freo, highly unlikely to move
Geelong (1 in the poll)
  • Dalhaus- just moved to Cats as FA on long deal - no chance he moves
  • Myers - yes please but not exactly realistic being a Falcons boys, a dream get as young but exactly what we are after. Would take big $$$ to prise him out, how is Cats cap??
  • Atkins - unlikely to be any better than what we have, decent role player but fully developed already
  • Narkle and Fogarty - not developed enough
  • Rohan - went home last year - going nowhere
Gold Coast (3 in the poll)
  • Ainsworth and Sexton - contracts recently extended so very very unlikely
  • Ah Chee - yes - talented but injured lots of upside under AR
  • Martin - don’t consider to be a small pressure goal kicking forward but included here so you don’t think I forgot him
  • McPherson - yes, plenty of upside with this guy, needs more goals but playing well (broken leg 2018), not sure of his contract status
  • Young - plenty of better options
  • Lemmens - manic pressure but skills iffy, been injured for most of last 2 seasons so hard to gauge.
GWS (2 in the poll)
  • Daniels - progressing nicely, doesn’t kick a lot of goals yet, in the poll but others well ahead
  • Langdon - matter recruit, behind Daniels in pecking order, not quite good enough
  • Greene - gun but going nowhere with long term contract
  • Hill - exactly what we’re after but unlikely as a 1st year draftee, but included in the poll as ties to our WA boys and $$$ could factor in
Hawthorn (1 in the poll)
  • The Chad - unlikely as just lured there on a long term deal
  • Poppy - on his last legs, too old
  • Breust - IMO he is a classic downhill skier, albeit a very good one goal kicking and pressuring from behind wise (by that I mean he sits back and waits for his opponent to take the ball before tackling rather than get the ball himself)
  • Ross - playing ressies and scoring but can’t get a look in - lots of work to do on fitness.
Melbourne (none in the poll)
  • Jeffy - sorry mate, likely to be delisted...5% chance as a DFA but well down our preferred list.
  • Kennedy Harris - not at the required level
  • BEdford - NGA kid this year, no idea how he’s going in ressies but well down any list we might have
  • Spargo - struggling this year, one to consider but a lot of development to come
Kangaroos (1 in the poll)
  • Turner - OK player, not sure he’s on the “pursue” list but we’ll put him in the poll
  • Thomas - bit of a stretch, playing mostly small fwd but likely moves up the ground as he gets more mature, not included in poll.
Port Adelaide (2 in the poll)
  • Sam Gray - in the media liked to us so goes in the poll
  • Butters - love to have him but like McHenery at Adel, he would come at a huge price of not a lot of production at this age
  • Farrell - probably gettable and looks to know where the goals are. Is he more HFF than small fwd??
  • Robbie Gray - gun but never gonna happen and probably a bit old now...next
Richmond - Christ where to start...I’ll put them in order if I was picking them off a line-up at school...will include all bar Rioli and Stack in poll
  • Stack - my absolute 1st preference as can also play back but it’s a pipe dream, however it might mean we can shakeout others below...they can’t pay them all and surely someone is gonna leak out...pretty happy club though so maybe not
  • Rioli - long term contract, having fitness issues but long term not gonna happen
  • Bolton - OOC and absolutely gettable - exactly what we need, not happy he played so well last week!!
  • Higgins - not sure of his contract status but smart and skilled - exactly what we need, best 22 in any other fwd line
  • Baker - really rate this kid, small but versatile like Caleb Daniel - would slot in our fwd line easy and a WA boy with Fish and SPS
  • Castagna - just resigned at Tigers I believe, fast as hell but untidy, not sure why he’s getting a game in front of Higgins/Baker
  • Butler - Last in line but can still play a role, well behind others
Saints (none in the poll)
  • Jack Lonie- could have got him last year before he signed a decent deal from memory
  • Matty Parker - handy pick up for saints in draft, probably not a target though
  • Robbie Young - another mature age draftee from last year so unlikely
Swans (2 in the poll)
  • Papley- the main target for us mentioned here and in media...1 year left on contract, coming home, yes please
  • Ronke- burst on scene and kicked 7 as a rookie, struggled this year but plenty to like if he can develop further
Weagles (1 in the poll)
  • Ryan - not going to get him out of WA, reckon if he was interstate he’d be doing a Tim Kelly go home
  • Cripps - WA boy who left Saints to go home - 27 and not leaving now
  • Rioli - would be ideal, not sure of contract status and nothing mentioned in any rumour/whisper - not likely but you’d have to ask.
  • Cameron - WA NGA kid, first year, not going anywhere
Western Bulldogs
  • Could not see a pure small forward on their list.....
Great post D7...although you look like you've put on a bit more size during your break.

The noise for Papley is getting stronger, although I wouldn't be disappointed if we jag Jack Martin....I want a smaller pressure forward who is prepared to tackle and harass, as well as slot a few through the bigger posts.

In the absence of those, not really interested in Sam Gray (only because he doesn't fit the demographic for our next tilt at the flag)....but Dan Butler and Lewy Taylor would be gettable for not a lot.

I'd still be looking at Narkle from the Cats....not so much a small forward as much as a creative half forward in the Shai Bolton mold....he's down the pecking order at the moment, so may be able to pry him out.
 

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It's no coincidence that we're constantly being attached to small forwards and this is not simply media driven.

Maybe it's the term that we don't like or feel to be 'old hat' so let's call them forward-line specialists.
We currently have no small-medium forwards that can regularly manufacture goals out of little. We just don't.
Of course we need them do and I have little doubt the trade period will play out accordingly.

Papley is the player that would make for what I see to be, the best fit for the CFC.

Maybe we won't get the player/s we want, but we do need goal-kickers and let's not get too carried away for the 100 point 'achievements' this season to date.
It was great knocking that barrier over but it was against teams that had personnel poor back-lines, at the time we played them.
 

Coops93

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I would like Jamie Elliott, not alone though. I'd like Jamie Elliott and another from the list of starting quality just because you can't rely on Jamie.
 

FitzroyBlueBagger

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Who would cost us less and benefit
us more....Bolton, Papley or Martin

Papley and Martin will cost us big imo
Bolton costs us less



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Jmo but it ain't a strong national draft this year and landing Papley for let's say pick 12-17 is about right, he's just turned

23yrs old 177cm 77kg has 76games 110goals under his belt plays forward and can play through the midfield,
2016- 27goals, 2017- 24goals, 2018- 30goals & 2019- 29goals*
2019 Inside 50's -49*, Tackles -49*, Clearances-26*, Goal assists 14*...

Considering we need a small forward at least we know what he produces with more upside to come as well...
 

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TommyMcG

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Papley would be great, however bringing him in would likely be to the detriment of that elusive experienced mid we need. I don’t think we should be prioritising a small forward over a mid at this stage.

That said, i’m a huge Tippa fan. I also work with one of his cousins. He tells me most of their family are mad Carlton fans. I told his cousin that next time he sees Tippa to get in his ear!
 

BigFrizz36

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Might be more for the the unpopular opinion thread but I don't think that papley us as good as most on here seems to think. Don't get me wrong he would be handy but he is not the second coming.

To me he is a notch below your Charlie Cameron and Liam Ryan types.

Sam Gray is a notch below again but might be better value. Our real hope is that Dave Cuningham can play a full season. That pack hitting goal against the dogs was as good as you will see.
 

Blutopia

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Papley also seems like a bit of a flog, but we're happy to accept him.

We've got the list capable of handling a few personalities. The example from top down is great.
Papley seems not that bad for me. I’m pretty sure he’s good mates with Newman too which helps.
Maybe Elliott seems like more of a flog to me because he’s Pies and I tend to see them in a different way... I did think Thomas was a flog and now not as much after playing with us for a couple of seasons....
 

Blutopia

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Might be more for the the unpopular opinion thread but I don't think that papley us as good as most on here seems to think. Don't get me wrong he would be handy but he is not the second coming.

To me he is a notch below your Charlie Cameron and Liam Ryan types.

Sam Gray is a notch below again but might be better value. Our real hope is that Dave Cuningham can play a full season. That pack hitting goal against the dogs was as good as you will see.
I think Papley is not as sensational as those two but I think he is a better ball user for when he kicks into 50 and he has more capability to rotate through midfield and therefore just as valuable. He is definitely a step above Gray but I also think Gray has a lot more value than most give him credit.

However, it’s clearly time to get in quality and he is the best available. Tippa also worth trying for. If we could get both our forward line is set for next 8-10 years. But Gray is a bit older and we may only see his best for next 3 years.
 
Nov 8, 2007
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OK be gentle, I’ve never started a thread before, but I had a bit of time to myself whilst on leave.

We’ve been banging on about it in other threads and our CEO has even stated it publicly - we are after a small forward. So I went through the 18 primary lists to see all the available candidates in the system - I left out rookies aside from Stack as I am presuming we want someone ready to go. Originally I thought this might be part of 2019 list management thread, but it’s not really, it’s about laying the small foward landscape out there in detail for all to see and having a BF poll on who we could REALISTICALLY target and acquire for 2020 in the upcoming trade period.

BlueAbroad - I know you guys have touched on this in one of your clips, but given our CEO’s comments, this might be an interesting topic for an in-depth stats assessment based on the poll results.

Now lets be real clear - I’m talking your real sniper small forwards who love pressure and goals - your Aaron Davey/Eddie Betts/ Steven Milne types. I’m not talking about those high HFF’s that are really spare/developing mids, or those mids mature that haven’t made it in that position, as I think we have those bases well covered for now in JSOS, Fish, SPS, Gibbo, Dow, Kennedy, Setters, et al

OK so here is my full list including brief reason below - I haven’t checked contract status - and the ones I’ve deemed most likely have been put in the poll, along with state league and national draft options....lets discuss!!!

Adelaide (None in the poll)
  • Eddie - too old
  • Murphy - no shown enough yet
  • Stengle - just arrived, unlikely to move this off season
  • McAdam - unproven and could have had him last year if remotely interested
  • McHenry - like him but unproven at the level, talented, contracted and it’s Adealaide...price would outweigh performance to date
Brisbane (1 in the poll)
  • Charlie - no chance
  • McCarthy - highly unlikely given went there on 3 year deal, best mates with Neale, and Brissie firing
  • Lewis Taylor - yes as a sniper/pressure type, won the RS in front of the Bont so we know he has talent. Made to play further up ground by Leppa and stagnated. Now a clear 3rd choice, but I think he can play and would cost very little in $$$ and picks
  • Zorko - going nowhere
  • Christensen - age, injury and current standard put him well down the order
Collingwood (1 in the poll)
  • Elliott - Yes, gettable but buyer beware with his body, makes the poll but not sure he’d be at the top purely due to durability
  • Thomas - solid player but not what we’re after in terms of small fwd
  • Stevo - no chance Pies let him go anywhere
  • Daicos - showing a little bit this year, but unlikely given name and production levels

Essendon (1 in the poll)
  • Fantasia - no for me as the price would be too high - 2 years left on contract, plus already indicated to Ess he’s heading home
  • Tippa - Yes please....mystery to me as to why he remains out of contract
  • Mosquito - shown nothing yet, likely requires a lot of development
Fremantle (none in the poll)
  • Ballantyne - no, he’s cooked
  • Walters - unrealistic, I doubt he’s gettable, no noise to indicate he’d want a change and would cost plenty
  • Switkowski - not shown enough
  • Matera - just moved home to Freo, highly unlikely to move
Geelong (1 in the poll)
  • Dalhaus- just moved to Cats as FA on long deal - no chance he moves
  • Myers - yes please but not exactly realistic being a Falcons boys, a dream get as young but exactly what we are after. Would take big $$$ to prise him out, how is Cats cap??
  • Atkins - unlikely to be any better than what we have, decent role player but fully developed already
  • Narkle and Fogarty - not developed enough
  • Rohan - went home last year - going nowhere
Gold Coast (3 in the poll)
  • Ainsworth and Sexton - contracts recently extended so very very unlikely
  • Ah Chee - yes - talented but injured lots of upside under AR
  • Martin - don’t consider to be a small pressure goal kicking forward but included here so you don’t think I forgot him
  • McPherson - yes, plenty of upside with this guy, needs more goals but playing well (broken leg 2018), not sure of his contract status
  • Young - plenty of better options
  • Lemmens - manic pressure but skills iffy, been injured for most of last 2 seasons so hard to gauge.
GWS (2 in the poll)
  • Daniels - progressing nicely, doesn’t kick a lot of goals yet, in the poll but others well ahead
  • Langdon - matter recruit, behind Daniels in pecking order, not quite good enough
  • Greene - gun but going nowhere with long term contract
  • Hill - exactly what we’re after but unlikely as a 1st year draftee, but included in the poll as ties to our WA boys and $$$ could factor in
Hawthorn (1 in the poll)
  • The Chad - unlikely as just lured there on a long term deal
  • Poppy - on his last legs, too old
  • Breust - IMO he is a classic downhill skier, albeit a very good one goal kicking and pressuring from behind wise (by that I mean he sits back and waits for his opponent to take the ball before tackling rather than get the ball himself)
  • Ross - playing ressies and scoring but can’t get a look in - lots of work to do on fitness.
Melbourne (none in the poll)
  • Jeffy - sorry mate, likely to be delisted...5% chance as a DFA but well down our preferred list.
  • Kennedy Harris - not at the required level
  • BEdford - NGA kid this year, no idea how he’s going in ressies but well down any list we might have
  • Spargo - struggling this year, one to consider but a lot of development to come
Kangaroos (1 in the poll)
  • Turner - OK player, not sure he’s on the “pursue” list but we’ll put him in the poll
  • Thomas - bit of a stretch, playing mostly small fwd but likely moves up the ground as he gets more mature, not included in poll.
Port Adelaide (2 in the poll)
  • Sam Gray - in the media liked to us so goes in the poll
  • Butters - love to have him but like McHenery at Adel, he would come at a huge price of not a lot of production at this age
  • Farrell - probably gettable and looks to know where the goals are. Is he more HFF than small fwd??
  • Robbie Gray - gun but never gonna happen and probably a bit old now...next
Richmond - Christ where to start...I’ll put them in order if I was picking them off a line-up at school...will include all bar Rioli and Stack in poll
  • Stack - my absolute 1st preference as can also play back but it’s a pipe dream, however it might mean we can shakeout others below...they can’t pay them all and surely someone is gonna leak out...pretty happy club though so maybe not
  • Rioli - long term contract, having fitness issues but long term not gonna happen
  • Bolton - OOC and absolutely gettable - exactly what we need, not happy he played so well last week!!
  • Higgins - not sure of his contract status but smart and skilled - exactly what we need, best 22 in any other fwd line
  • Baker - really rate this kid, small but versatile like Caleb Daniel - would slot in our fwd line easy and a WA boy with Fish and SPS
  • Castagna - just resigned at Tigers I believe, fast as hell but untidy, not sure why he’s getting a game in front of Higgins/Baker
  • Butler - Last in line but can still play a role, well behind others
Saints (none in the poll)
  • Jack Lonie- could have got him last year before he signed a decent deal from memory
  • Matty Parker - handy pick up for saints in draft, probably not a target though
  • Robbie Young - another mature age draftee from last year so unlikely
Swans (2 in the poll)
  • Papley- the main target for us mentioned here and in media...1 year left on contract, coming home, yes please
  • Ronke- burst on scene and kicked 7 as a rookie, struggled this year but plenty to like if he can develop further
Weagles (1 in the poll)
  • Ryan - not going to get him out of WA, reckon if he was interstate he’d be doing a Tim Kelly go home
  • Cripps - WA boy who left Saints to go home - 27 and not leaving now
  • Rioli - would be ideal, not sure of contract status and nothing mentioned in any rumour/whisper - not likely but you’d have to ask.
  • Cameron - WA NGA kid, first year, not going anywhere
Western Bulldogs
  • Could not see a pure small forward on their list.....
SO GOOD MATE!
 
Nov 8, 2007
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Who would cost us less and benefit
us more....Bolton, Papley or Martin

Papley and Martin will cost us big imo
Bolton costs us less



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Want Papley.
Don't even want Martin because he's not a small forward type AND he'd be pricey contract regardless of trade cost.
Bolton is meh, but better than nothing.

All about the PAP!
 
Nov 8, 2007
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I think Papley is not as sensational as those two but I think he is a better ball user for when he kicks into 50 and he has more capability to rotate through midfield and therefore just as valuable. He is definitely a step above Gray but I also think Gray has a lot more value than most give him credit.

However, it’s clearly time to get in quality and he is the best available. Tippa also worth trying for. If we could get both our forward line is set for next 8-10 years. But Gray is a bit older and we may only see his best for next 3 years.


anthony mcdonald tipungwuti
 
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Primarily I reckon the Swans would prefer our future 1st, and Papley would cost more than this years 1st.

But It would also let us use our 1st this year for someone like Jack Martin.
Not a fan of Jack (at his price) but fair enough.

I also think it's important that after 2020, we try to maintain a steady flow of youth coming in so we don't end up with an age-gap/hole in our list profile like we currently find ourselves in.

I think the Melbourne Demons will see repercussions in the future having traded out a lot to bring in Lever and May.
 

Coops93

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Thoughts on Ben ainsworth from the sun's. Hasn't shown much yet but was a very highly rated junior.
He's started his career fairly slowly, however this year he'd shown a fair bit before his injuries and was finally having an impact. Unfortunate timing for him to have a few knee issues.

I'm not 100% but I'm fairly sure he signed a contract extension earlier this season so he's probably out.
 
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