So I've Done The Numbers

[Cynic]

Hope is not lost!

At round 22 I have (on probable wins obviously)

St Kilda winning 6 more games
Geelong 5
North Melbourne 2
Richmond 6
Fremantle 7
Carlton 6 (I have us beating Richmond though, maybe not but we match up well against them, perhaps optimistic)

This has Fremantle making the finals as they will be one game clear and play Melbourne in round 23

Then we are even with Richmond, St Kilda and Geelong

Richmond play Port Adelaide, probable win
Geelong play Sydney, probable loss
Carlton play St Kilda, so one of us has to to win.

Might come down to percentage with Richmond, but obviously we have to beat St Kilda which is not easy. Beating Richmond is basically essential.

Remember we will have a full team in two weeks.

Anyone else done the numbers? What have you come up with?

Just wanted to say how awesome it was to see Stringer Bell doing the numbers again

 

[AB_Blue]

Hope is not lost!

At round 22 I have (on probable wins obviously)

St Kilda winning 6 more games
Geelong 5
North Melbourne 2
Richmond 6
Fremantle 7
Carlton 6 (I have us beating Richmond though, maybe not but we match up well against them, perhaps optimistic)

This has Fremantle making the finals as they will be one game clear and play Melbourne in round 23

Then we are even with Richmond, St Kilda and Geelong

Richmond play Port Adelaide, probable win
Geelong play Sydney, probable loss
Carlton play St Kilda, so one of us has to to win.

Might come down to percentage with Richmond, but obviously we have to beat St Kilda which is not easy. Beating Richmond is basically essential.

Remember we will have a full team in two weeks.

Anyone else done the numbers? What have you come up with?

So I take it norfs win to tonight changes the spectrum a bit? Wish we could play as half as good as norf does. They have half the talent but give twice the effort.

 

[rp84]

Hmm, then send a note of thanks to 17 other clubs for allowing several hard and talented mids to slip through to our 2nd, 3rd, 4th picks. Is this realistic at all?

Do you have a chromosome extra?

Clubs generally draft in several categories. KPP, both fwd and back. Midfielders, inside and out. Half backs, leading forwards, small forwards. Utilities.

I ask again, after adding to your poor knowledge of draft tactics, why is this not possible?


If you're going to have a go at a post, have half a clue mate. Just because you have posted 70k times on BF does not give you a clue.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Do you have a chromosome extra?

Clubs generally draft in several categories. KPP, both fwd and back. Midfielders, inside and out. Half backs, leading forwards, small forwards. Utilities.

I ask again, after adding to your poor knowledge of draft tactics, why is this not possible?


If you're going to have a go at a post, have half a clue mate. Just because you have posted 70k times on BF does not give you a clue.

Time for you to change the way you address people. It will not be tolerated.

That being said, hard and talented midfielders will generally be taken up in the first 40 picks or so. That is a formidable combination and teams will not leave them behind to address their weaknesses if that midfielder is far better than the player they were looking at. You can't just delist a heap of players in one area and think you are going to find something just as good throughout the draft. Have you seen the success rates the further down the draft you go?

 

[blue gunslinger]

Do you have a chromosome extra?

Clubs generally draft in several categories. KPP, both fwd and back. Midfielders, inside and out. Half backs, leading forwards, small forwards. Utilities.

I ask again, after adding to your poor knowledge of draft tactics, why is this not possible?


If you're going to have a go at a post, have half a clue mate. Just because you have posted 70k times on BF does not give you a clue.

it is the great thing about the draft- you always get exactly what you need and you always choose the correct guy that always delivers

 

[mediumsizered]

it is the great thing about the draft- you always get exactly what you need and you always choose the correct guy that always delivers

Not only do you got what you needed but the players you got, slipped lower in the draft than you had expected because you had them rated much higher than where you got them.

The draft is the only time of year when every club's glass is half full.

 

[blue gunslinger]

Not only do you gett what you needed but the players you get, have slipped lower in the draft than you had expected because you had them rated much higher than where you eventually got them.

The draft is the only time of year when every club's glass is half full.

too complicated for me. I must not have a clue. Might try to go buy one at market with my extra chromosome

 

[Xeno]

It is - MY football club.

I miss it, i love it, I pray for it.

I die. For it.

 

[blue gunslinger]

It is - MY football club.

I miss it, i love it, I pray for it.

I die. For it.

cheers lazarus

 

[bluekidjoe]

What we need to do is grab the best KPF available with our top 10 pick and then trade Warnock to GC for Caddy.

 

[ctacp]

with other teams losing over the weekend, we're still in the hunt by default. As homer simpson said when chosen to be an astronaut by default "de-fault, the best 2 words in the english language!"

ctacp
curlier than a catoggio pube

 

[stringerbell]

North's win helps our chances, although maybe I have under rated North? We will wait and see this week.

 

[Claypigeon]

Revision needed

St Kilda winning 5 more games
North Melbourne 3

Better?

Actually North winning is a both good and bad. ..

Good - Saints win one less game
Bad - We play them next week

 

[HereComesJuddy]

I usually look at the positives for our proud but underseiged club. But I fail to see where our 6 wins will come from stringer?
The only definite win I see is against gcs.

Losses to collingwood, north are firing, western bulldogs rolled us last year when we were clear favorites, Richmond 40/60, Sydney 25/75, Brisbane 50/50, essendon 30/70 and then the saints know how to beat us.

Yeah we may get players back, but the injuries just keep coming. Our mojo is nowhere to be seen right now.

If the boys don't get back to their best and quickly, We could find ourselves finishing 12-14th. That is the harsh reality.

 

[stringerbell]

I usually look at the positives for our proud but underseiged club. But I fail to see where our 6 wins will come from stringer?
The only definite win I see is against gcs.

Losses to collingwood, north are firing, western bulldogs rolled us last year when we were clear favorites, Richmond 40/60, Sydney 25/75, Brisbane 50/50, essendon 30/70 and then the saints know how to beat us.

Yeah we may get players back, but the injuries just keep coming. Our mojo is nowhere to be seen right now.

If the boys don't get back to their best and quickly, We could find ourselves finishing 12-14th. That is the harsh reality.

Its a fair point, and its not going to be easy, but there has been a knee jerk reaction to last weeks game. The week before we lost to West Coast by ten points and the week before Geelong by two goals. I dont think we are as bad as people are saying this week and we at least go into North, Bulldogs, Brisbane, Richmond and St Kilda with a higher percentage chance of winning.

It wont be easy but nothing having rarely is. No one thought North would be in the eight either this week.

 

[Snoozer]

I usually look at the positives for our proud but underseiged club. But I fail to see where our 6 wins will come from stringer?
The only definite win I see is against gcs.

Losses to collingwood, north are firing, western bulldogs rolled us last year when we were clear favorites, Richmond 40/60, Sydney 25/75, Brisbane 50/50, essendon 30/70 and then the saints know how to beat us.

Yeah we may get players back, but the injuries just keep coming. Our mojo is nowhere to be seen right now.

If the boys don't get back to their best and quickly, We could find ourselves finishing 12-14th. That is the harsh reality.

Pretty much spot on... except the definite win over Gold Coast. They have been very competitive at home on occasions recently against the likes of Freo and North who took four quarters to shake them off. And we all know what happens to Carlton when teams compete against them.

If things don't turn drastically, and fast, on current form Carlton would be lucky to pinch one or two more games for the year.

 

[Big Sim]

No finals for us this year folks.

Carrazzo, Murphy, Waite, Laidler injuries were crippling. Form loss of Judd, Kreuzer, Gibbs, Garlett were debilitating. Lack of improvement of Lucas, JR and Bower compounded the issue, as did injuries to White, Davies, Casboult, Mitchell, and Rowe's illness. Losing Jamison and Henderson right now is the killer blow.

That our mojo is gone is understandable, if not excusable. Ditto for Ratten's inability to find solutions for our problems on the field.

Not long ago our list was too good to delist any more than two players, and both of them were good enough to be picked up by other clubs. Even more recently we beat Collingwood by 10 goals.

Funny game footy. That's funny as in peculiar, not funny as in hilarious.

What matters now is what action the club takes. I prefer Rohan Connolly's idea of a review rather than a bloody purge of coaches and players. But blood is being bayed for and it may well flow.

 

[Mr.X]

No finals for us this year folks.

What matters now is what action the club takes. I prefer Rohan Connolly's idea of a review rather than a bloody purge of coaches and players. But blood is being bayed for and it may well flow.

There is some merit to Rohan's suggestion, and it's a sensible way to go.

However, the mob is stirring. I'm not sure Brett's position is tenable considering how bad 2012 has gone