Analysis Some Rather Eyebrow Raising Free Kick Facts...

[Coach_Required]

Man, I want to tee off and have another whinge but even I'm getting sick of myself complaining about it. I don't think there is a conspiracy against us but I do feel umpires let large home crowds influence their decisions in important moments that have impacted results no matter how much spin the AFL put on it.

My biggest bug bears with the way our game is umpired is

Holding the ball - no such thing unless you dive on it and rake it in, its crap the AFL really need to look at this rule, does not rewarding a tackler really help the game? More often then not a tackler needs to make their tackles stick to get rewarded at all and by doing this it opens themselves up in injuring their opponent such as arms pinged or head hits the turf because players know if they dont successfully wrap up a player in a tackle the ball will spill free and be called play on.

Blocking off the ball - everyone does it even we do but its such a bug bear for me, what is considering "in the contest" these days, we see it way too much for my liking when players just get deliberately blocked off the ball in a marking contest. I reckon if you arent making a genuine effort in the contest then its a free kick.

Unrealistic marking attempts / infringements - remember the 1 game a few year back when Jack got done twice against the eagles and everyone was saying it was fine he should get pinged? what ever happened after that? I saw the game on the weekend and infringements happened all game Jack Darling flew into our players consistently because Vlastuin was giving him a bath and he was getting pissed off and nothing was ever called, didnt even touch it. Oscar Allen even did it. I know I'm singling out 1 match but its really annoying especially when i hear feedback on game threads saying Jack and Tom do it all the time.

Players taking a dive for fee kicks, diving forward in tackles and flopping - should be a free kick against every time not a free kick for, push in the back .... wouldnt have happened if the player wasnt trying it on.

My last bug bear is when a player gives away a free and the team getting a free kick has a player who wasn't even involved comes over and gets in their face and carries on or rubs their head, why is this allowed? There really is no need for it, you got the free that's where it should end. Some people might think its part of the game but is it? surely you can just clap and point to the scoreboard have a bit a say to your opponent if you kick a goal or gave away 50 but the push and shove stuff is just garbage.

 

[Dr Tigris]

Man, I want to tee off and have another whinge but even I'm getting sick of myself complaining about it. I don't think there is a conspiracy against us but I do feel umpires let large home crowds influence their decisions in important moments that have impacted results no matter how much spin the AFL put on it.

My biggest bug bears with the way our game is umpired is

Holding the ball - no such thing unless you dive on it and rack it in, its crap the AFL really need to look at this rule, does not rewarding a tackler really help the game? More often then not a tackler needs to make their tackles stick to get rewarded at all and by doing this it opens themselves up in injuring their opponent such as arms pinged or head hits the turf because players know if they dont successfully wrap up a player in a tackle the ball will spill free and be called play on.

Blocking off the ball - everyone does it even we do but its such a bug bear for me, what is considering "in the contest" these days, we see it way too much for my liking when players just get deliberately blocked off the ball in a marking contest. I reckon if you arent making a genuine effort in the contest then its a free kick.

Unrealistic marking attempts / infringements - remember the 1 game a few year back when Jack got done twice against the eagles and everyone was saying it was fine he should get pinged? what ever happened after that? I saw the game on the weekend and infringements happened all game Jack Darling flew into our players consistently because Vlastuin was giving him a bath and he was getting pissed off and nothing was ever called, didnt even touch it. Oscar Allen even did it. I know I'm singling out 1 match but its really annoying especially when i hear feedback on game threads saying Jack and Tom do it all the time.

Players taking a dive for fee kicks, diving forward in tackles and flopping - should be a free kick against every time not a free kick for, push in the back .... wouldnt have happened if the player wasnt trying it on.

My last bug bear is when a player gives away a free and the team getting a free kick has a player who wasn't even involved comes over and gets in their face and carries on or rubs their head, why is this allowed? There really is no need for it, you got the free that's where it should end. Some people might think its part of the game but is it? surely you can just clap and point to the scoreboard have a bit a say to your opponent if you kick a goal or gave away 50 but the push and shove stuff is just garbage.

Can I just add that the 15 metre ruler is very short - in general, not just against the Eagles.

Backs can often virtually tackle the forward and that's fine.

And if you are tackled and your knees hit the ground free kick. And being able to keep spinning around is also a free kick.

Grumpy rant over.

Thing is these are the easy rules to enforce, not the hard ones. And they would force players to move the ball on.

 

[tiger_tough]

I am only reporting facts and figures. If I was an independent investigator looking at that set of facts and figures, I would definitely want to explain the very unusual outlier to satisfy myself there wasn’t something to be corrected. Like for example any unreasonable bias in the system that could be identified. And especially as the person who is in charge of the umpiring department is the very person who had 3 separate decisions against Richmond players in one match last year in his role as the MRO final decision maker OVERTURNED by the Tribunal on appeal. So where I am seeing two huge outliers produced potentially from one source against one entity, yeah I think I’d be wanting to look a bit deeper into it. You know, just to satisfy myself that the reasons for these things happening are not related, and you would certainly hope they were not.

I certainly wouldn’t be dismissing it with a summary guess the way you are…..while simultaneously suggesting I am chasing ghosts.

You're over thinking it way too much. When we're flying, the oppo can't lay a finger on us, when we're losing we're sloppy and undisciplined. No one else plays like us.

As far as the MRO goes yeah he's out of touch and needs to go but have you seen the last 4 or 5 suspensions he's handed out to Roos players? All laughable sanctions and all cleared on appeal. He's just not very good at his job. In saying that he's on a hiding to nothing. The AFL change their mind week to week on whats acceptable let alone season to season. It's a thankless job even if he got every call correct.

It's not about a conspiracy, it's about the morons out there who actually think we get a good run with the umpires. Howard could knock Dusty out next week in the goal square and salty oppos would still complain about us getting a goal from a free kick.

I'm with you there. We're hated by all neutrals now. Still, it's alot better than when they mocked us or felt sorry for us.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Let’s just go a little further from some of these figures in my opening post.

Demons, 2 losing games are 41-52.
Bulldogs, 2 losing games are 33-36.
Cats, 3 losing games are 58-70.
Lions, 4 losing games are 89-101.
Power, 4 losing games are 89-85
Swans, 5 losing games are 76-99
Eagles, 5 losing games are 88-94
Richmond, 6 losing games are 75-145 Edit: 86-146

So this leaves us with these averages for and against in losing games for the top 8 teams:

Team	Average Frees for(all losses only)	Average Frees against(all losses only)	Average Differential
Demons	20.5	26	-5.5
Bulldogs	16.5	18	-1.5
Cats	19.3	23.3	-4
Lions	22.25	25.25	-3
Power	22.25	21.25	+1
Swans	19	24.8	-5.8
Eagles	17.7	18.8	-1.1
Tigers	12.5 Edit: 14.3	24.3	-11.7 Edit: -10

You can see here our free kicks against in our losses, whilst greater than average for top 8 teams, are not even in the top 3. So that figure looks normal, and does not suggest we are substantially less disciplined in our losses than other top 8 teams are in theirs.

But look at the highlighted figure, our free kicks for in these matches. 12.5! Edit: 14.3. These teams who are all higher than average infringers across all games suddenly stop infringing v Richmond.

Average frees they give away in their wins against teams who are not Richmond:

Demons 19
Cats 18
Lions 18
Power 21
Swans 21
Eagles 15

So it works out these teams who average roughly 18.7 free kicks against in their other victories suddenly decide to only infringe 12.5 Edit: 14.3 times on average against the Tigers.

Is anybody going to put that down to Richmond’s playing style?

Just some crazy coincidence I guess. But wow, some coincidence. A whole basket of teams produce roughly 50% Edit: 31% more infringements on average in their other victories than they do when they beat us. 50%!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You're over thinking it way too much. When we're flying, the oppo can't lay a finger on us, when we're losing we're sloppy and undisciplined. No one else plays like us.

As far as the MRO goes yeah he's out of touch and needs to go but have you seen the last 4 or 5 suspensions he's handed out to Roos players? All laughable sanctions and all cleared on appeal. He's just not very good at his job. In saying that he's on a hiding to nothing. The AFL change their mind week to week on whats acceptable let alone season to season. It's a thankless job even if he got every call correct.


I'm with you there. We're hated by all neutrals now. Still, it's alot better than when they mocked us or felt sorry for us.

Wake up and smell the sewer tiger. . When you say the “AFL” change their mind week to week on what is acceptable, you do realise that S Hocking is the “AFL” in relation to rules, umpires, MRO, Tribunal Appeals. It is literally his job, his remit. When you hear on a footy show something like “the AFL has decided to send this MacKay case to the Tribunal despite the MRO Michael Christian not giving it a grading”…..when they say the AFL they mean S Hocking. No checks and balances, no powerful organisation, it is literally one man deciding all of this.

And if you think your second opening paragraph is correct, think again comrade. You may want to have a look at my latest offering in post #29. So, me overthinking it, or you underthinking it?

tiger_tough tough Edit: I owe you a big apology here. Regarding your suggestion that Richmond’s desperate game style when they are behind might explain why Richmond(amongst at least the current top 8 teams) experiences the greatest drop in free kick differential between wins and losses, I thought was disproven by my mistaken belief that the majority of this drop was made up of a reduction in free kicks awarded TO Richmond. After re-checking the data I now realise that of Richmond’s -8.7 free kick differential drop between wins and losses, only -3.1 is attributable to us receiving less free kicks and -5.6 is attributable to us giving away more free kicks, and this to some extent would support your assertion. I will do some further work on this, but again, I apologise.

 

[Gunit]

At least we won’t lose the free kick count this week.

 

[chrstphrwnstn]

At least we won’t lose the free kick count this week.

We still won't win it either.

 

[sante]

I get complaining about the umpires during and after a game, but after that who cares. Get over it.

The umpiring is s**t in every match every week. I don’t see anyone putting their hand up to do it better

 

[biaseddustyfan]

gonna be so good when Benny finally becomes AFL CEO and finds records that show that the umps/rule changes/media attacks etc etc really were a conspiracy by SHocking and Gil to have us loose

oppos will say it's fake news

 

[Tigers Time]

 

[juss]

What can we do about it?
Probably nothing, just have to try and play through it.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

What can we do about it?
Probably nothing, just have to try and play through it.

The first thing always juss is to work out what “it” is. At this stage as far as I can see, the main thing is the paucity of free kicks we have been paid when playing against teams who are a serious threat to us.

It is difficult to explain why that would occur spontaneously. I am sure there is some perfectly innocent reason. Or that it is just a case of variance. We shall see….

 

[biaseddustyfan]

View attachment 1156659

 

[TIGERMANIAC]

gonna be so good when Benny finally becomes AFL CEO and finds records that show that the umps/rule changes/media attacks etc etc really were a conspiracy by SHocking and Gil to have us loose

oppos will say it's fake news

Speaking of conspiracies, I have absolutely no doubt shocking came up with the stand rule after discussions with salty scott on how to try and stop us.

 

[Defibrillate]

Has anyone read Michael Warner’s book, The Boys Club? It brutally highlights the corruption of the AFL in manipulating political outcomes to their best political and financial interests. Anyone who thinks their influence wouldn’t extend to on-field results is kidding themselves. Hocking’s comments to highlight Richmond’s tactics, and changing the rules (as his own team was being towelled up in a GF) is a snippet of insight. The natural extension of Warner’s book is to question on field results - and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. If there’s money in it (TV revenue in low scoring footy because fewer ad breaks…?? ) everything is fair game. If the AFL don’t like the “look” of the game, then they will naturally manipulate it…………and they don’t like chaos football.

Read the book - it’s a good read.

 

[beema limapep]

Sick of the sooking about the umpiring on here. There is no secret conspricay against us. Even Baker said the other day it's mostly just the way we play and tackle.

The good teams still win.....

Just half a step away from barracking the umpires on for even more frees against, this one.

 

[box070]

Has anyone read Michael Warner’s book, The Boys Club? It brutally highlights the corruption of the AFL in manipulating political outcomes to their best political and financial interests. Anyone who thinks their influence wouldn’t extend to on-field results is kidding themselves. Hocking’s comments to highlight Richmond’s tactics, and changing the rules (as his own team was being towelled up in a GF) is a snippet of insight. The natural extension of Warner’s book is to question on field results - and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. If there’s money in it (TV revenue in low scoring footy because fewer ad breaks…?? ) everything is fair game. If the AFL don’t like the “look” of the game, then they will naturally manipulate it…………and they don’t like chaos football.

Read the book - it’s a good read.

the 2016 GF was a shocker for manipulation. In fact that entire final series was. It was essentially on the back of people getting bored with the same teams dominating. Creating the fairy tale

 

[tugga]

I posted this in the Salt Mine thread as some comments from opposition supporters had been highlighted including claims of umpire bias IN FAVOUR of Richmond. I think this is more than worthy of its own thread. There is some quite remarkable data when viewed in both the current and historical context…..

Here are some quick Richmond 2021 free kick stats:

1. Despite Richmond mysteriously gaining a good run with the umps two weeks running v Crows and Bombers to the overall tune of 36 v 24 across those games, Richmond’s overall season figure of less than 10 free kicks for for every 13 free kicks against remains diabolical. It is a worse relative free kick differential than any team has recorded across a whole season in the AFL era.( Records not available in 5 seasons during the mid 90’s.)

2. Also, Richmond 2021 remain one of I think only four teams dating all the way back to 1965 who have both received the least free kicks for and given the most free kicks against. Remembering that this dubious distinction was much easier to “achieve" when there were less teams in the competition.

3. The Tigers have played 7 games v other top 8 teams during 2021. The overall free kick count in these crucial matches stands at an astonishing 97 free kicks for, and 162 free kicks against. Roughly an average of 14 per game for, and 23 against.

4. If you remove the one game Richmond won from the above top 8 sample, v Bulldogs when Richmond actually won the free kick count…..in the 6 losing matches of the season, all v top 8 teams….free kicks 76 for, and 145 against. That is an average of roughly 13 free kicks for, and 24 free kicks against. Those figures are almost unbelievable. Even more so given in the 7 other matches Richmond has played it has a net positive free kick differential. In the losses v top 8 team sample, Richmond has a ratio of 10 free kicks for, for every 19 free kicks against. And remember, this is just free kicks, it doesn’t account for other adjudications such as 50 metre penalties, and marks…and we cannot tell how many of these adjudications are resulting in goals for and against.

5. It is not like Richmond’s opponents in these losing matches are generally strong free kick performers. They sit 7th, 8th, 9th, 11th 12th and 13th on the free kick differential ladder. If you removed the Richmond games from those opponents’ seasons, they would on average slide roughly 2-3 positions each on that table. So in reality Richmond have recorded these massive negative free kick differentials against teams who would otherwise sit roughly 9th, 10th, 11th, 14th, 15th and 16th on the free kick differential table. That is, bar the Richmond games they are a sample of much worse than average AFL teams for free kick differentials. Amazing.

6. So maybe all top 8 teams record big negative free kick differentials in their losing games….

Demons, 2 losing games are 41-52.
Bulldogs, 2 losing games are 33-36.
Cats, 3 losing games are 58-70.
Lions, 4 losing games are 89-101.
Power, 4 losing games are 89-85
Swans, 5 losing games are 76-99
Eagles, 5 losing games are 88-94
Richmond, 6 losing games are 75-145

Richmond’s free kick deficit in their 6 losing games (-70) is greater than the combined free kick deficit for all other top 8 teams in their 25 combined losing games, which stands at -63. Remembering that in winning games Richmond would sit quite close to these teams for free kick differential. Those are facts that if you stumbled across them randomly would shock you.

7. No other top 8 team has a free kick differential drop between their winning and losing games of anything like Richmond’s drop of over -12 free kicks differential between wins and losses. On average the amount the other top 8 teams drop in free kick differential between their winning games and losing games appears to be roughly in the minus 2 to minus 3 range.

8. The only other team across a whole season in the AFL era with a free kick differential as high as our current 2021 season figure of -5.1 per game….was Richmond 2018, coincidentally the only time since 2017 Richmond failed to win the Premiership, so far….

Well done for actually pointing this out with facts.

 

[Nobby]

Any half decent journo would have been onto this already. Instead they biatch and moan about the game, players and each other. Its pathetic really

AFL approved media don't want to bight the hand which feeds them, and aren't really Journos

 

[_RT_]

Some more free kick facts

2010 -40 FF +44 FA
2011 -47 FF +47 FA
2012 +24 FF -26 FA
2013 +4 FF -3 FA
2014 +6 FF -6 FA
2015 +71 FF -72 FA
2016 -17 FF +17 FA
2017 -60 FF +59 FA
2018 -122 FF +122 FA
2019 -31 FF +30 FA
2020 -70 FF +70 FA
2021 -67 FF +66FA

Since Hardwick took over we've been screwed over for free kicks when we were s**t and we've been screwed over when we've been good. We've also been rewarded for free kicks when we were good during the 2012-2015 climb into the finals. There is no conspiracy, we're a team that relies on putting on huge amounts of pressure on our opponents, which is always going to mean we give away more free kicks than most other teams, it is what has made us so successful over the last 4.5 seasons and as far as I'm concerned I couldn't give a toss if we continue being the most penalised side in the league if we're constantly competing in finals and winning the odd flag along the way.

 

[This Is Anfield]

It is the solemn duty of every football supporter to rage against the injustices inflicted upon their beloved team!
There is no place for the “fair minded”

 

[Boston tiger]

It’s all pretty crazy but then we do alright in finals or is that just grand finals?
Love to know what the frees are like when we wear yellow.

 

[Infamy]

We already have a thread about umpiring, do we really need another one?

 

[Tiger Sam]

It is the solemn duty of every football supporter to rage against the injustices inflicted upon their beloved team!
There is no place for the “fair minded”

Brad Ottens was a perfect example, he was seduced by money.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

We already have a thread about umpiring, do we really need another one?

Hopefully if people want to give opinions on umpiring they go to the other thread. And if people want to discuss facts and data about free kicks or other adjudications, they come to this thread.