Analysis Some Rather Eyebrow Raising Free Kick Facts...

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The thing with the CCJ 50m - which yes was bad - was that he already had the ball. His shot was gettable enough that it might not have mattered, but yes, it still made a possible 1 pointer into a guaranteed 6, so it was lucky.

The issue with the Eagles game though is that they got given the ball a lot for free compared to us, when they didn't otherwise have it, especially in a lot of crucial moments in the second half, not just directly in front of goal mind you. A case in point being Allen who thankfully missed, but the real bad one was the Waterman free. If you ask my partner she'd confirm I basically said out loud before he kicked the goal that "he is gonna kick this free goal and it's gonna cost us the game". Sure enough he squeezes in a shot from 50...

How the ump called a throw on Grimes is beyond me and I've yet to see another angle to show that it wasn't a legal handball, especially when you compare it to some of the actual throws Joel Selwood pulls out. The whistle was so quick to go from so far away and Grimes clearly couldn't believe it, it just makes you wonder wow, were the umps really not trying to help the Eagles there?

There were also two other moments that really made me raise my eyebrow and worry we'd be in for a tough night. Forgive me if memory has changed these moments ever so slightly.

1. The ball bounced toward CCJ in our forward 50, he raised a single hand to take possession and, as the ball made contact with his hand, he was immediately ripped away from it by an Eagles player. They called holding the *ingg ball.

2. Graham laid a great tackle in the centre and the ball spilled loose, no reward, as it spilled out he placed a single hand to stop it and was immediately buried by one or two Eagles. They called holding the *ingg ball.

I know the rule is a bit cooked now, in fact VERY cooked, but those two instances made me go, geez, they were some quick whistles, we're in trouble tonight. That is NOT Richmond's playstyle effecting the count, that's just 2 very unfair frees that the umpires couldn't wait to pay. It adds fuel to the fire when it comes to us not being able to help but think umps are biased against us, as ridiculous as it may be.
It’s the free that didn’t get paid... the block on Shai that three umpires missed, umpires that usually spot the gentle jumper hold or mild block.
This was a wrestling hold!!
 
What I find the funniest on here is the fact so many of you believe the AFL, media and umpires are out to get us. Like, just think about it for one second. You all sound crazy. It’s absolutely ridiculous
I dont think there is a conscious bias or a conspiracy against us but I do believe that the outside noise affects the umpires. When they umpire in Adelaide or Perth and probably Melbourne the 50-50 calls more often go the way of the home team. The umpires know that we've been the dominant team over the past 4-5 years and they listen to the media and probably read forums - a good example is to see how many free kicks Joel Selwood gets now. The umpires are probably also prone to the tall poppy syndrome like all Australians. So I think we are the victims of this as a form of indirect (or unconscious) bias.

I think also that the umpires look at the free kick stats at half time and will unconsciously try to even it up - it'd be interesting to see our free kick stats after half time compared to the first half

Umpires have way too much affect on our game at the moment and there are so many grey area - no other game in the world is so heavily influenced by the umpires.
 
This is a long post that is unfortunately meaningless. A high free kick differential is a useless metric if you are looking for any bias. If we were to take your example to the logical conclusion then you would be stating that there was a conspiracy against a team if they were purposely giving away free kicks. A free kick differential doesn't matter if you are try to establish bias, what establishes bias is taking a look at the free kicks that the opposition give away and then comparing those numbers to the amount of free kicks that are given away when they play Richmond. I have two posts in the Umpiring threads (see below)


AND



In summary of the above to establish bias you have to demonstrate that the teams give away a significant amount less free kicks when they play us. Usually they do (up to post the brisbane game).

Sadly SW, my long post was in part incorrect and I have gone back and edited it now for accuracy. The picture in some respects is not quite as bad as I had thought, but remains quite dire.

1. Whether free kick differentials are meaningless. In my opinion, no correctly recorded statistic is meaningless. I think what you mean is that it can be difficult to draw conclusions from these figures I presented without further investigation. I agree with this. However, just from free kick differential statistics we may be able to make some interesting observations like:

- Richmond have both the most free kicks against and the least free kicks for in the AFL in 2021. Only about 3 teams in recorded history of roughly 700 teams, have claimed both titles over the course of a whole season.

- From roughly 700 individual team’s seasons recorded back to 1965, Richmond 2021 have either THE worst or one of the few worst relative free kick differentials(when comparing us after rd 13 with any other team after a whole season.)

These are not meaningless findings, they are a perfectly reasonable basis from which to delve further into the matter I would have thought. They don’t prove bias, but of course I did not claim or even suggest they did…...


2. My “Conclusions"….I have not drawn any conclusions in that first post regarding bias, yet I am fielding suggestions that I did from several posters, so perhaps the tone of my post suggests I am suggesting some type of deliberate bias.

When you say this in your post:

"If we were to take your example to the logical conclusion then you would be stating that there was a conspiracy against a team if they were purposely giving away free kicks.”

Can I ask you what example I gave? And wouldn’t it be fairer to say that if you jumped from my findings to an illogically conceived and hasty conclusion without further consideration, we might assume there was a conspiracy against a team whose game style lends itself to giving away a greater amount of free kicks than average? Would that be a better way to put it?


3. Your posts. I have looked at the posts you made. I like the way you are trying to isolate certain data to help us start to draw more meaningful conclusions. I will try to usefully add to those posts if I can see a way to do that. I would just comment that expressing things like standard deviations is going to be lost on most of us here, and it is as well to just find and present the most meaningful raw data that we can to start with. Later down the track we could maybe get someone with the required mathematical expertise to figure out the probabilities of these things occurring at random for us, to help us draw meaningful conclusions.
 
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It’s the free that didn’t get paid... the block on Shai that three umpires missed, umpires that usually spot the gentle jumper hold or mild block.
This was a wrestling hold!!
Eagles fans would have burnt the stadium to the ground before he got to take the shot anyway so we still would have lost.
 
Sadly SW, my long post was in part incorrect and I have gone back and edited it now for accuracy. The picture in some respects is not quite as bad as I had thought, but remains quite dire.

1. Whether free kick differentials are meaningless. In my opinion, no correctly recorded statistic is meaningless. I think what you mean is that it can be difficult to draw conclusions from these figures I presented without further investigation. I agree with this. However, just from free kick differential statistics we may be able to draw some basic conclusions like:

- Richmond have both the most free kicks against and the least free kicks for in the AFL in 2021. Only about 3 teams in recorded history of roughly 700 teams, have claimed both titles over the course of a whole season.

- From roughly 700 individual team’s seasons recorded back to 1965, Richmond 2021 have either THE worst or one of the few worst relative free kick differentials(when comparing us after rd 13 with any other team after a whole season.)

These are not meaningless findings, they are a perfectly reasonable basis from which to delve further into the matter I would have thought. They don’t prove bias, but of course I did not claim or even suggest they did…...


2. My “Conclusions"….I have not drawn any conclusions in that first post regarding bias, yet I am fielding suggestions that I did from several posters, so perhaps the tone of my post suggests I am suggesting some type of deliberate bias.

When you say this in your post:

"If we were to take your example to the logical conclusion then you would be stating that there was a conspiracy against a team if they were purposely giving away free kicks.”

Can I ask you what example I gave? And wouldn’t it be fairer to say that if you jumped from my findings to an illogically conceived and hasty conclusion without further consideration, we might assume there was a conspiracy against a team whose game style lends itself to giving away a greater amount of free kicks than average? Would that be a better way to put it?


3. Your posts. I have looked at the posts you made. I like the way you are trying to isolate certain data to help us start to draw more meaningful conclusions. I will try to usefully add to those posts if I can see a way to do that. I would just comment that expressing things like standard deviations is going to be lost on most of us here, and it is as well to just find and present the most meaningful raw data that we can to start with. Later down the track we could maybe get someone with the required mathematical expertise to figure out the probabilities of these things occurring at random for us, to help us draw meaningful conclusions.
Think I walked into BigMathy by mistake.
 
My favorite is Lynch has 4 frees in his 10 games. 14 frees against too lmao.

With how many contests hes been in, how many times hes been double teamed, how defenders straddle that line of whats legal its unbelievable to think hes only been infringed 4 times in 10 games.

Even worse in his past 6 games where he has received 1 free. And its not like he hasn't been near the ball, hes been all over it.

Tom Lynch last 6 games.

61 disposals
31 marks
25 scoring shots
10 tackles
5 frees against
1 free for
 
What I find the funniest on here is the fact so many of you believe the AFL, media and umpires are out to get us. Like, just think about it for one second. You all sound crazy. It’s absolutely ridiculous

Far more delusional to think they aren't after us i reckon
 
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What I find the funniest on here is the fact so many of you believe the AFL, media and umpires are out to get us. Like, just think about it for one second. You all sound crazy. It’s absolutely ridiculous
I’m not into umpire bashing or conspiracies or any of that rubbish. I do believe teams and players are umpired differently but out of human nature as opposed to spite.
But fu** me this is f’ed. 3 times the amount of frees given away then the 2nd worst team means something needs to be addressed. Whether it’s clarification from the UD or we need to look at what we do internally. Too many cheap kicks here. Surprised we are better then 50% WL
I dont think there is a conscious bias or a conspiracy against us but I do believe that the outside noise affects the umpires. When they umpire in Adelaide or Perth and probably Melbourne the 50-50 calls more often go the way of the home team. The umpires know that we've been the dominant team over the past 4-5 years and they listen to the media and probably read forums - a good example is to see how many free kicks Joel Selwood gets now. The umpires are probably also prone to the tall poppy syndrome like all Australians. So I think we are the victims of this as a form of indirect (or unconscious) bias.

I think also that the umpires look at the free kick stats at half time and will unconsciously try to even it up - it'd be interesting to see our free kick stats after half time compared to the first half

Umpires have way too much affect on our game at the moment and there are so many grey area - no other game in the world is so heavily influenced by the umpires.


I would just like to respond to this issue about conspiracies etc that seems to get a run any time someone observes anything about the officiating or central administration.

The word conspiracy in this context means something along these lines:

an evil, unlawful, treacherous, or surreptitious plan formulated in secret by two or more persons; plot.

A conspiracy theory would be defined as something like this:

Conspiracy theory, an attempt to explain harmful events as the result of the actions of a small powerful group.

I have a few observations about this:

1. Conspiracies can and do happen all the time in lots of different ways, some more harmless, some more damaging.

2. Nobody on this thread as far as I know has actually created a conspiracy theory or seriously suggested that our free kick count is the result of a wilful conspiracy between the umpires and the “AFL” or other parties. I think we all accept that whilst entirely possible, it is extremely unlikely to be the case.

3. There are many ways bias can occur without being deliberate on the part of the umpires. Noise of affirmation, unconscious bias, selective conditioning, Razorblade Ray Chamberlian getting out of the wrong side of the gutter, to name a few. 😁

4. The long time Umpires Advisor Hayden Kennedy recently and without detailed explanation suddenly resigned his employment at the AFL citing “exhaustion.” I have read unsupported suggestions he found Steve Hocking’s constant interventions stressful. It is likely Kennedy has a non-disclosure agreement with the AFL and for that reason we are unlikely to get a more detailed explanation for his sudden departure. There is absolutely nothing to suggest this could be related to the Richmond free kick count in any way, other than the timeline correlation, so we simply note it for possible future reference.

5. Whilst there is no suggestion of any deliberate conspiracy between parties within the AFL, a conspiracy would not be required for bias against an individual team to be effected. The reason for this is one single person is responsible for: being the biggest single influence in rule changes, being the final decision maker in relation to ALL MRO cases, and being the instigator of the constant interpretation changes we see. S Hocking, AFL General Manager, Football Operations. As I understand it he is, without conspiring with anybody else, in the position to influence umpires on a regular basis. I suppose an Umpire’s Advisor could also do this but he sits underneath Hocking in the structure, and so he certainly couldn’t do it to Hocking’s dissatisfaction, whereas as can be seen from point 4. above, the reverse may not necessarily be true.

Now of course we have no real way of knowing precisely what goes on between Hocking and the umpires. But if given carte blanche to investigate where any potential bias was coming from, I would be zeroing in on Hocking as my first port of call. If you were able to rule out bias(conscious or otherwise) on his part then I would think it was more likely to just be a combination of mostly random factors leading to Richmond’s 2021 all time significant free kick deficit.
 
I would just like to respond to this issue about conspiracies etc that seems to get a run any time someone observes anything about the officiating or central administration.

The word conspiracy in this context means something along these lines:

an evil, unlawful, treacherous, or surreptitious plan formulated in secret by two or more persons; plot.

A conspiracy theory would be defined as something like this:

Conspiracy theory, an attempt to explain harmful events as the result of the actions of a small powerful group.

I have a few observations about this:

1. Conspiracies can and do happen all the time in lots of different ways, some more harmless, some more damaging.

2. Nobody on this thread as far as I know has actually created a conspiracy theory or seriously suggested that our free kick count is the result of a wilful conspiracy between the umpires and the “AFL” or other parties. I think we all accept that whilst entirely possible, it is extremely unlikely to be the case.

3. There are many ways bias can occur without being deliberate on the part of the umpires. Noise of affirmation, unconscious bias, selective conditioning, Razorblade Ray Chamberlian getting out of the wrong side of the gutter, to name a few. 😁

4. The long time Umpires Advisor Hayden Kennedy recently and without detailed explanation suddenly resigned his employment at the AFL citing “exhaustion.” I have read unsupported suggestions he found Steve Hocking’s constant interventions stressful. It is likely Kennedy has a non-disclosure agreement with the AFL and for that reason we are unlikely to get a more detailed explanation for his sudden departure. There is absolutely nothing to suggest this could be related to the Richmond free kick count in any way, other than the timeline correlation, so we simply note it for possible future reference.

5. Whilst there is no suggestion of any deliberate conspiracy between parties within the AFL, a conspiracy would not be required for bias against an individual team to be effected. The reason for this is one single person is responsible for: being the biggest single influence in rule changes, being the final decision maker in relation to ALL MRO cases, and being the instigator of the constant interpretation changes we see. S Hocking, AFL General Manager, Football Operations. As I understand it he is, without conspiring with anybody else, in the position to influence umpires on a regular basis. I suppose an Umpire’s Advisor could also do this but he sits underneath Hocking in the structure, and so he certainly couldn’t do it to Hocking’s dissatisfaction, whereas as can be seen from point 4. above, the reverse may not necessarily be true.

Now of course we have no real way of knowing precisely what goes on between Hocking and the umpires. But if given carte blanche to investigate where any potential bias was coming from, I would be zeroing in on Hocking as my first port of call. If you were able to rule out bias(conscious or otherwise) on his part then I would think it was more likely to just be a combination of mostly random factors leading to Richmond’s 2021 all time significant free kick deficit.


Well we do know SHocking does not like our style of play. He's on record as saying that watching Cotch control the space on the mark led to the Stand rule change. He's also said that he prefers the AFLX style of game. It's fairly easy to extrapolate that he doesn't like hard play - the 'perfect' tackles that he is sending to the tribunal etc. It's straightforward to draw a line where he doesn't like the high pressure, on the edge, chaos style of game, and is trying to eliminate it.

To me it is extraordinary what we know of what his opinion is and how he is changing the rules to enforce his aesthetic. In just about any other sport that would lead to a lynching. In the AFL it's just accepted as how we do things. That is insane IMHO. We are heading down the path of a totally different game to what we know and have grown up with. Just because of what one man, or maybe a small group of men, think. It isn't questioned even though some of the recent decisions would mean tackling is basically illegal. Standard century old skills and practices are illegal. Just think of that in soccer or basketball. Suddenly someone in FIFA says that a tackle that puts a player down is worth a yellow or red card = completely different game. Unimaginable. But normal in the AFL - and on a weekly basis with no controls or investigation.
 
Backer was referring to the free kicks we give away, I am 100% OK with that, as mostly they are right, we do push the edge. What some just dont seem to get its the free kicks FOR, we get over 3 times less then anybody else. I read that only 4 clubs have every had a negative free kicks for and against but we are unique since records been kept that our free kicks for equals our free kicks against. That just does not happen.

You need to understand this fairly big point, our game style does not effect free kicks the opposition should be giving us. That is why I fully believe the umpires, particularly in the first 8 to 9 rounds were umpiring to the jumper against us. They were so red hot to ping us that they lose focus on what the opposition is doing illegally and the stats back that up. Teams free kicks they normally concede in most cases gets reduced by half from what they normally give during games. Again its because umpires in my belief saw so much vision before the season started about the rule changes, and all that vision was mainly with a tiger vision as the reason they have been brought in, they have instinctively just focused on us.

Data does not lie
I firmly believe that it's our game style that dictates the frees we get and we don't get and let me explain.

How many of our guys throw their arms about and draw attention to when they are being held, or throw their heads back when they get taken high or go to ground easily when they get pushed in the back? I don't believe any of them do, instead they just keep playing until the whistle, they keep fighting and scrapping for the ball because our game plan revolves around quick ball movement when we get it and massive pressure when we don't have it to force the turnover so we get it back. Rarely if ever will our players argue when calls go against us, they just accept the decision and focus on getting back into position to impact the next contest.

On the flipside the opposition always seem to be drawing attention to any sort of infringement that happens to them. Arms will get thrown out as soon as they touched, heads get thrown back as soon as there is the slightest contact and the amount of staging that goes on for the briefest of contact is astounding. The reason being is that drawing a free kick gives them possession and removes the heat from the contest and allows them to try and maintain possession.

I would hate for us to become like Geelong or Brisbane where they flail around like this



Trying to draw attention to any sort of infringement.

What I find the funniest on here is the fact so many of you believe the AFL, media and umpires are out to get us. Like, just think about it for one second. You all sound crazy. It’s absolutely ridiculous
Sometimes it seems like this with the conspiracies that get thrown around.

 
I firmly believe that it's our game style that dictates the frees we get and we don't get and let me explain.

How many of our guys throw their arms about and draw attention to when they are being held, or throw their heads back when they get taken high or go to ground easily when they get pushed in the back?
I don't believe any of them do, instead they just keep playing until the whistle, they keep fighting and scrapping for the ball because our game plan revolves around quick ball movement when we get it and massive pressure when we don't have it to force the turnover so we get it back. Rarely if ever will our players argue when calls go against us, they just accept the decision and focus on getting back into position to impact the next contest.

On the flipside the opposition always seem to be drawing attention to any sort of infringement that happens to them. Arms will get thrown out as soon as they touched, heads get thrown back as soon as there is the slightest contact and the amount of staging that goes on for the briefest of contact is astounding. The reason being is that drawing a free kick gives them possession and removes the heat from the contest and allows them to try and maintain possession.


I would hate for us to become like Geelong or Brisbane where they flail around like this



Trying to draw attention to any sort of infringement.


Sometimes it seems like this with the conspiracies that get thrown around.



Well what you are suggesting(whether you realise it or not) in the sentences I have highlighted is that umpires are biased towards players who draw attention to infringements against them and against players who do not do that. So if this is the case the AFL and umpires should be working to correct this bias.

But would that qualify you for a tinfoil hat given you are pointing to umpire bias?
 
Got no issue with the frees we give away. They're almost always there. What I take issue with is the inconsistency of the calls. What we give away, teams get away with. Umps only pay it one way against us.
So true but it always seems to be the home team crowd bias that causes the inconsistency, it's almost as if the umps are dead-set scared of the hometown ferals who constantly abuse them and sometimes even threaten them if a decision doesn't go their way which is very soft imo.
 

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I firmly believe that it's our game style that dictates the frees we get and we don't get and let me explain.

How many of our guys throw their arms about and draw attention to when they are being held, or throw their heads back when they get taken high or go to ground easily when they get pushed in the back? I don't believe any of them do, instead they just keep playing until the whistle, they keep fighting and scrapping for the ball because our game plan revolves around quick ball movement when we get it and massive pressure when we don't have it to force the turnover so we get it back. Rarely if ever will our players argue when calls go against us, they just accept the decision and focus on getting back into position to impact the next contest.

On the flipside the opposition always seem to be drawing attention to any sort of infringement that happens to them. Arms will get thrown out as soon as they touched, heads get thrown back as soon as there is the slightest contact and the amount of staging that goes on for the briefest of contact is astounding. The reason being is that drawing a free kick gives them possession and removes the heat from the contest and allows them to try and maintain possession.

I would hate for us to become like Geelong or Brisbane where they flail around like this



Trying to draw attention to any sort of infringement.


Sometimes it seems like this with the conspiracies that get thrown around.



I would agree with that but the volume of missed free kicks for is way to high compared to the rest of the comp to be just that.
 
Well what you are suggesting(whether you realise it or not) in the sentences I have highlighted is that umpires are biased towards players who draw attention to infringements against them and against players who do not do that. So if this is the case the AFL and umpires should be working to correct this bias.

But would that qualify you for a tinfoil hat given you are pointing to umpire bias?
It has nothing to do with bias and more to do with human nature. When you're watching a game either at the ground or on TV how often can you pick out a free kick that should have been paid when a player doesn't add any theatrics to the incident? More often than not you won't, but when a player ducks into a tackle and throws his head back or throws his arms out because his opponent is close checking him, you notice it because it draws your eyes to it and it sticks in your mind.

So when you're a umpire out on the field watching a contest, be it a 1-1 contest or a pack with 6+ guys around the ball, you're eyes will automatically drawn to the player who use theatrics to draw attention to the fact they've been infringed, but you might not quite notice the split second before hand when that same player grabbed his opponents jumper if they aren't trying to draw the free kick.

In our team there are only 2 players I can point out who go down the path of adding a bit of theatrics to try and draw frees and they are Bolton and Grimes who are both quite good at drawing free kicks that may not quite be there, remember everyone accusing Grimes of staging multiple times last year and there are some free that Bolton gets, and some that he misses out on, like Sunday night, that stand out because he generally makes sure the umpire notices it. Outside those 2 not many spring to mind in terms of drawing attention to them being impeded, they simply get on with trying to win the contest and playing until the whistle does blow.

That is how the game should be played and in playing that way it has made us one of the hardest teams to play against over the last 5 years, because we just don't stop coming at the opposition, even when we've got the game won or it's a lost cause, we still keep pushing until the end so that opposition teams know that there is no let up when they face us.
 
I would agree with that but the volume of missed free kicks for is way to high compared to the rest of the comp to be just that.
How many of our blokes carry on to draw attention for free kicks? IMO there are 2, Bolton and Grimes who do so, remember Grimes being bagged for staging last year multiple times and Bolton invariably draws attention to when he is being infringed, sometimes it pays off and sometimes it doesn't, like Sunday night.

Remember how frustrated we all got when we played Brisbane this year, because the likes of Zorko, Robinson, Mathieson & Cameron kept drawing free kicks for the slightest contact, yet our blokes hardly got a free kick. IMO it's because we don't carry on like flogs, we play the game to the whistle and if we get a free we get it, if we get penalised, they simply man the mark and the rest get back in position for the next contest.

Why do we never really see Dimma tee off at the umpires, he simply says it's a tough game to adjudicate and the umpires are doing the best they can, I reckon it's a team ethos that you play to the whistle and if it goes against you, there is no point complaining, just get on with the game and be ready for the next contest. Remember him bringing in the penalty for anyone who gave away a 50m last year, I believe it was to reinforce that message of play to the whistle and accept the decision and move on rather than giving the opposition an extra advantage.
 
My favorite is Lynch has 4 frees in his 10 games. 14 frees against too lmao.

With how many contests hes been in, how many times hes been double teamed, how defenders straddle that line of whats legal its unbelievable to think hes only been infringed 4 times in 10 games.

Even worse in his past 6 games where he has received 1 free. And its not like he hasn't been near the ball, hes been all over it.

Tom Lynch last 6 games.

61 disposals
31 marks
25 scoring shots
10 tackles
5 frees against
1 free for
Whilst this is pretty cactus, I'd love to see the same stats for the other key forwards, especially guys like Tom Hawkins. Is it possible?

EDIT: Actually as I typed this I just went and looked it up. Hawkins has 6 for and 13 against in 12 games. So on average he gets 0.5 frees per game, whereas Lynch gets 0.17 or thereabouts.

Over a full season that'd work out to 11 frees for Hawkins and just over 3 and a half for Lynch. Bugger, I look at those numbers and think Hawkins is pretty stiff, but far OUT Lynch gets shafted.

Lynch actually has 4 in 10 games, 2 in one game vs. Port, so his average is a little below Hawkins.

Frees For/Frees Against:
- JJ Kennedy 8/13 - 11 games
- Jack Darling 18/15 -13 games (18 frees far out)
- Cale Hooker 9/10 - 12 games
- Harry McKay 14/13 - 12 games
- Charlie Dixon 20/20 - 12 games (20!)
- Jeremy Cameron 9/7 - 7 games
- Tex Walker 18/18 - 12 games
- Eric Hipwood 11/13 - 12 games
- Aaron Naughton 13/8 - 12 games
- Tom McDonald 17/15 - 13 games
- Jack Riewoldt 8/12 - 13 games

Interesting numbers. Gotta love the irony in seeing that Jack and Tom have a combined 12 free kicks in 13 games, whilst almost half of the most prominent key forwards in the game have more frees alone. If you look at Tom's average, had he played those extra 3 games it would likely only be 13 frees combined for he and Jack rather than 12. Only adds to the narrative that we just get a little shafted, but ah well...


EDIT 2: Maybe it's just this season. Looking at 2020 and 2019, Lynch did fairly well for frees for. Had plenty more than Hawkins anyway. Who knows really, all I know is the team is -67 which is insane.
 
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It has nothing to do with bias and more to do with human nature. When you're watching a game either at the ground or on TV how often can you pick out a free kick that should have been paid when a player doesn't add any theatrics to the incident? More often than not you won't, but when a player ducks into a tackle and throws his head back or throws his arms out because his opponent is close checking him, you notice it because it draws your eyes to it and it sticks in your mind.

So when you're a umpire out on the field watching a contest, be it a 1-1 contest or a pack with 6+ guys around the ball, you're eyes will automatically drawn to the player who use theatrics to draw attention to the fact they've been infringed, but you might not quite notice the split second before hand when that same player grabbed his opponents jumper if they aren't trying to draw the free kick.

In our team there are only 2 players I can point out who go down the path of adding a bit of theatrics to try and draw frees and they are Bolton and Grimes who are both quite good at drawing free kicks that may not quite be there, remember everyone accusing Grimes of staging multiple times last year and there are some free that Bolton gets, and some that he misses out on, like Sunday night, that stand out because he generally makes sure the umpire notices it. Outside those 2 not many spring to mind in terms of drawing attention to them being impeded, they simply get on with trying to win the contest and playing until the whistle does blow.

That is how the game should be played and in playing that way it has made us one of the hardest teams to play against over the last 5 years, because we just don't stop coming at the opposition, even when we've got the game won or it's a lost cause, we still keep pushing until the end so that opposition teams know that there is no let up when they face us.

I disagree with your opening statement that is has nothing to do with bias.

I agree wholeheartedly with you this is what umpires do and it is probably what you and I would do if we umpired. Ie. we would collect cues from infringed players reactions to help us make decisions about free kicks. But in doing so we are very definitely showing a bias towards the over-reactors and against the players who simply play the ball until the whistle goes. This is obviously why some players do react in a way that either demonstrates or infers they have been infringed, because they know either this will bias the umpire in their favour, or stop him from being biased against them in his ruling.

So if we really want umpires to umpire completely correctly in this regard, we would teach them to either read the cues better or to ignore the cues coming from most player reactions entirely - unless the player is unconscious or dead of course, then you can probably safely read that as a cue. 😱

If we wanted to go a step further we would simply say play the ball until the whistle goes and if you react in such a way that is deliberately designed solely to influence the umpire’s ruling then you are disqualified from getting a free kick - eg throwing arms back when tackled/*ed and not in possession. If you deliberately fake an infringement that did not take place, you get weeks.

So in short, this is a form of bias built into the way the game is adjudicated, and there are ways to stop it from happening. It is a deft manoeuvre by you to describe this form of bias as not bias but human nature. It is part of human nature to suffer from bias in our reasoning.
 
I disagree with your opening statement that is has nothing to do with bias.

I agree wholeheartedly with you this is what umpires do and it is probably what you and I would do if we umpired. Ie. we would collect cues from infringed players reactions to help us make decisions about free kicks. But in doing so we are very definitely showing a bias towards the over-reactors and against the players who simply play the ball until the whistle goes. This is obviously why some players do react in a way that either demonstrates or infers they have been infringed, because they know either this will bias the umpire in their favour, or stop him from being biased against them in his ruling.

So if we really want umpires to umpire completely correctly in this regard, we would teach them to either read the cues better or to ignore the cues coming from most player reactions entirely - unless the player is unconscious or dead of course, then you can probably safely read that as a cue. 😱

If we wanted to go a step further we would simply say play the ball until the whistle goes and if you react in such a way that is deliberately designed solely to influence the umpire’s ruling then you are disqualified from getting a free kick - eg throwing arms back when tackled/******ed and not in possession. If you deliberately fake an infringement that did not take place, you get weeks.

So in short, this is a form of bias built into the way the game is adjudicated, and there are ways to stop it from happening. It is a deft manoeuvre by you to describe this form of bias as not bias but human nature. It is part of human nature to suffer from bias in our reasoning.
Umpires are taught to pay what they see and not guess. So if you have 2 players running towards and ball and one player is slower than the other but they can't see them being held back they aren't going to guess the player was held so they'll let it go. However if they see the jumper get stretched or they see arms around the waist or the player throws their arms out they'll pay the free kick. As I just said to T71, IMO our players have been instructed not to use theatrics to draw attention for free kicks, but instead just play the game until the whistle blows and whatever the decision is accept it and get ready for the next contest. And it's been somewhat successful too. While we've been the most penalised team the last 5 seasons we've also been the most successful so who cares if we're not winning free kick counts or even getting even number of free kicks. I'd much rather have the 4 points we get most weeks and the 3 flags that have come along with them.
 
Well we do know SHocking does not like our style of play. He's on record as saying that watching Cotch control the space on the mark led to the Stand rule change. He's also said that he prefers the AFLX style of game. It's fairly easy to extrapolate that he doesn't like hard play - the 'perfect' tackles that he is sending to the tribunal etc. It's straightforward to draw a line where he doesn't like the high pressure, on the edge, chaos style of game, and is trying to eliminate it.

To me it is extraordinary what we know of what his opinion is and how he is changing the rules to enforce his aesthetic. In just about any other sport that would lead to a lynching. In the AFL it's just accepted as how we do things. That is insane IMHO. We are heading down the path of a totally different game to what we know and have grown up with. Just because of what one man, or maybe a small group of men, think. It isn't questioned even though some of the recent decisions would mean tackling is basically illegal. Standard century old skills and practices are illegal. Just think of that in soccer or basketball. Suddenly someone in FIFA says that a tackle that puts a player down is worth a yellow or red card = completely different game. Unimaginable. But normal in the AFL - and on a weekly basis with no controls or investigation.
Whateley is at it also.
This tribunal decision is like a blueprint to stop defensive football and throughout our premiership years,defense has been a big weapon.

More changes in rules coming,this time at the tribunal office.
 
Hope we are fully aware of what is to come now because the mrp will get into us.

Anything involving the head will be put under the hubble telescope.

We can still be ferocious without head danage but it’s a fine line when 2 players are trying all their might to get to the ball first.
 
Imagine the outrage here if Hocking came in over the top of Michael Christian in an effort to try get one of our blokes suspended after initially being cleared

The way that has been reported is a red herring tt.

Hocking effectively makes every MRO decision. I don’t think most people understand that. The only thing that is different is that in this case they have publicised Christian’s deliberation as being different from Hocking’s.

I cannot recall any other case where this has been publicised so it is deliberately done here for reasons we can only speculate over.

In all other MRO cases we can be certain the decision is agreed to by Hocking but we have no such certainty as to what Christian’s position is.
 

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