Spring Carnival 2011

[Rooster Cogburn]

Goddamn broken keyboard

Edit: haha, what are you talking about now?

 

[scatman john]

hey guys.

i've once again been stung with a uni exam on cup day and will be selling my guest pass for the day.

$74 is the price for a general admin ticket.

i'm offloading my pass for $100. you get access to the members stand and nursery/rails, etc., clean facilities, cheaper and easier access to bars as well as better viewing for the big one.

send me a msg if you're interested.

 

[WeninRome]

Very strong mail on Efficient from this mornings trackwork.

Going to take off from 1000m out

 

[The_Doctor]

Very strong mail on Efficient from this mornings trackwork.

Going to take off from 1000m out

I would be suprised if he even had the pace to catch them. Will make it interesting though if he does do that

 

[Aussie Assault]

Does Centrebet have a Melbourne Cup market open anywhere? There's no Australian Ante Post racing markets, but if I Google "Centrebet Melbourne Cup" it comes up with an article and their odds, but cant bet on it by the looks?

 

[Rickfromvic]

Does Centrebet have a Melbourne Cup market open anywhere? There's no Australian Ante Post racing markets, but if I Google "Centrebet Melbourne Cup" it comes up with an article and their odds, but cant bet on it by the looks?

Yeah they do mate. Top left just above the jockey challenge bit "Early prices/Futures".

 

[mattys123]

Does Centrebet have a Melbourne Cup market open anywhere? There's no Australian Ante Post racing markets, but if I Google "Centrebet Melbourne Cup" it comes up with an article and their odds, but cant bet on it by the looks?

Yeah, it's under the heading "early prices/futures" in the racing menu, click on Australia in the racing menu if it doesn't come up at first.

 

[Aussie Assault]

Perfect. Thanks guys.

 

[private joker]

Hi

First time posting on bigfooty I just wanted to let you know I have set up a sort of tipping website for this week's cox plate.

The website is called http://privatejokersbestbets.weebly.com/

Let me know what you guys think of my tips thinking of doing more for other sports but if they suck I will move on

 

[Jas 44]

More food for thought - rundown of Jimmy Choux's workout this morning

http://www.racenet.com.au/news/743/74310.asp

"He’s not going to lose on the score of fitness,” is how Flemington trackman Darryl Sherer assessed the Cox Plate prospects of Kiwi star Jimmy Choux after the horse’s gallop on Thursday morning had many trainers shaking their heads.
Jimmy Choux had just completed his final workout in preparation for Saturday’s $3 million Group I weight-for-age contest.
Some questioned Jimmy Choux’s gallop at Moonee Valley but nothing was left to the imagination on Thursday.
The John Bary-trained galloper had race jockey Jonathan Riddell aboard when he strode out on Flemington’s inside grass track and he was clocked to run the last 800 metres of the gallop in 49 seconds.
The last 600 metres was run in 34.87 seconds with the final 400 metres covered in 23.24 seconds.
"That can’t be right,” said one bemused Flemington regular after looking at his stopwatch.
The Flemington clocker suggested "no one can really believe it” after watching how hard Jimmy Choux worked a little over 48 hours away from the biggest race of his life.
"He [John Bary] knows the horse better than anyone and whether it is good luck or good management the horse appears to be thriving on it,” Sherer said.
"If you were watching that naked, without a watch, you’d say he was cruising.”

 

[Tippaz]

my Cox Plate bets

Glass Harmonium each-way

Jimmy Choux/Glass Harmonium exacta

1. Jimmy Choux
2. Glass Harmonium
3. Helmet/Pinker Pinker/Avienus trifecta

 

[mattys123]

What the hell is up with JC's odds.

You can get better then $5.00 now in some markets, I simply do not get it.

I'm waiting to see what the tote price comes up with when the first big money is put in on Saturday Morning, but god damn even that price is bloody tempting.

He'll win as long as nothing untoward happens, that's my tip.

 

[uptheblues]

What the hell is up with JC's odds.

You can get better then $5.00 now in some markets, I simply do not get it.

I'm waiting to see what the tote price comes up with when the first big money is put in on Saturday Morning, but god damn even that price is bloody tempting.

He'll win as long as nothing untoward happens, that's my tip.

I'm with you, hopefully he continues to drift...

 

[Ricketts]

If Manawanui gets beat in the Vase, do we take that as a sign that Helmet will also struggle? (i.e. Being burnt out from the Guineas)

 

[Eddie Dingle]

Helmet by 4-5 lengths.

 

[tornsword]

Helmet by 4-5 lengths.

Are you taking the mickey?

Helmet has never looked like being a horse who can run 2000; has absolutely no pedigree to suggest he will be able to last the distance.

Even in the Guineas he did incredibly well to hold off Mana' but the later looked the far better horse.


Good luck to you and I'll be happy to eat my words if you're right but I think your statement is poor

 

[footystar_]

Are you taking the mickey?

Helmet has never looked like being a horse who can run 2000; has absolutely no pedigree to suggest he will be able to last the distance.

Even in the Guineas he did incredibly well to hold off Mana' but the later looked the far better horse.


Good luck to you and I'll be happy to eat my words if you're right but I think your statement is poor

I agree with you Helmet is a great Mile Horse but def doesn't warrant any respect over the 2000, the only plus I have for him is that he's got 10Kg less then Efficent and Glass Harmonium and 8 on Jimmy Choux.

My First 4 is

Jimmy Choux/Efficent, Glass Harmonium, Pinker Pinker/Efficent, Glass Harmonium, Pinker Pinker, Secret Admirer, Helmet, Avienus/Efficent, Glass Harmonium, Pinker Pinker, Secret Admirer, Helmet, Avienus, Shamrocker, Rekinded Interest, Playing God. $100 for 83.33%

Best Case Scenario

Jimmy Choux
Pinker Pinker
Avienus
Shamrocker

Could pay anything between $5-10k (estimate)

Worst Case Scenario
Jimmy Choux
Glass Harmonium
Helmet
Rekinded Interest

Could pay anything between $350-$1200 (estimate)

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

If Manawanui gets beat in the Vase, do we take that as a sign that Helmet will also struggle? (i.e. Being burnt out from the Guineas)

I'll be looking at that with great interest, it's something I bought up earlier in the week. That was a gut busting battle between the two of them, I really can't see it not having some sort of impact.

 

[footystar_]

I'll be looking at that with great interest, it's something I bought up earlier in the week. That was a gut busting battle between the two of them, I really can't see it not having some sort of impact.

I like Collar

 

[tornsword]

I agree with you Helmet is a great Mile Horse but def doesn't warrant any respect over the 2000, the only plus I have for him is that he's got 10Kg less then Efficent and Glass Harmonium and 8 on Jimmy Choux.

My First 4 is

Jimmy Choux/Efficent, Glass Harmonium, Pinker Pinker/Efficent, Glass Harmonium, Pinker Pinker, Secret Admirer, Helmet, Avienus/Efficent, Glass Harmonium, Pinker Pinker, Secret Admirer, Helmet, Avienus, Shamrocker, Rekinded Interest, Playing God. $100 for 83.33%

Best Case Scenario

Jimmy Choux
Pinker Pinker
Avienus
Shamrocker

Could pay anything between $5-10k (estimate)

Worst Case Scenario
Jimmy Choux
Glass Harmonium
Helmet
Rekinded Interest

Could pay anything between $350-$1200 (estimate)

Yeah not a bad thought.

Again only my opinion but I think Avienus is currently being way overstated, the only reason he ran so well last week was on the underside of Descarado belting out to the front and then stopping. In a race with solid pace Avienus doesn't run a place. That furthers my thoughts that Lion Tamer at $21 is a fantastic chance.

After a shocking showing I fully expect him to come out guns blazing a run alot closer to the speed than last start, pushing the tempo and using that excellent turn of foot.
21$ for a horse that 2 weeks ago was the Melbourne Cup 2nd favourite is too good to be true.

 

[larrikan]

It's the Cox Plate guys. Helmut is not So You Think. I remember backing Miss Finland when she was all the rage like Helmut.

FYI, here is part of a Racenet article - "The Peter Snowden-trained colt has been heavily supported to win Saturday’s feature but history shows three-year-old favourites have an appalling record in the weight-for-age classic.

In the last 25 years, six three-year-olds have started favourite in the Cox Plate. None of them have won and only two have managed to place.

The list contains some of the best-performed modern day three-year-olds – Drawn (1985), Danewin (1994), Our Maizcay (1995), Redoute’s Choice (1999), Miss Finland (2006) and Samantha Miss (2008).

Redoute’s Choice defeated multiple Group I winner Testa Rossa in the Caulfield Guineas before the super-stallion battled home a fortnight later to finish fifth in the Cox Plate.

The pair provided racing fans with an epic duel up the Caulfield straight in the Guineas ; baring uncanny similarities to Helmet’s stoush against Manawanui.

Drawn and Danewin, both Group I winners at weight-for-age, took out the Caulfield three-year-old feature but could only manage third and ninth respectively in the Cox Plate.

Champion galloper Red Anchor was the last three-year-old favourite to win the Cox Plate. He was also the last Caulfield Guineas winner to claim the Moonee Valley feature.


Hopefully, Helmet leads and sets it up perfectly for Jimmy Choux.

 

[larrikan]

What the hell is up with JC's odds.

You can get better then $5.00 now in some markets, I simply do not get it.

I'm waiting to see what the tote price comes up with when the first big money is put in on Saturday Morning, but god damn even that price is bloody tempting.

He'll win as long as nothing untoward happens, that's my tip.

Not waiting Matty...$5.50/2.20 on Sportsbet. I can't see it blowing out much more. It's crazy. I messed up too. I accidently put it e/w in my bet slip twice, when I placed the bet i was like wtf. Then, oh well, must be fate. Here's hoping for twice the win. I backed it straight after the trackwork report because I think the current price is just the residual of the RI plunge. Now I just need Helmet to lead them out in a true run race. Also, have Secret Admirer e/w @$15 which now only covers my choux bet. lol

 

[superfreak]

Outside of Helmet, keen on Jimmy Choux, Rekindled Interest and Lion Tamer.

Will have some multiples involving those four.

 

[footystar_]

Outside of Helmet, keen on Jimmy Choux, Rekindled Interest and Lion Tamer.

Will have some multiples involving those four.

Lion Tamer needs to hit the paddock for another year! 4YO is getting tired at the wrong end of the year.

I've heard through a few mates that speaking with the trailer they are hoping Efficient will be hoping for a trail behind Helmet around the 1000 1 out. Expect a bold finish if it gets the right run, could be massive value for a each way bet

 

[PieBeast]

Even in the Guineas he did incredibly well to hold off Mana' but the later looked the far better horse.

So Helmet having to bust his gut at both ends of the race yet still holding off Manawanui lead you to a conclusion the latter is "a far better horse"?

Got ya.....