Spring Carnival 2011

[Ricketts]

Even in the Guineas he did incredibly well to hold off Mana' but the later looked the far better horse.

Strongly disagree with this. Almost as much to say I think it's a flat-out lie.

Helmet had the outside barrier and did a stack of work getting across to the lead.

Manawanui sat behind him.

Helmet was a sitting duck but was too strong and Manawanui couldn't get past him after having a far easier run.

Helmet looked by far the better horse based on that race.

 

[tornsword]

Strongly disagree with this. Almost as much to say I think it's a flat-out lie.

Helmet had the outside barrier and did a stack of work getting across to the lead.

Manawanui sat behind him.

Helmet was a sitting duck but was too strong and Manawanui couldn't get past him after having a far easier run.

Helmet looked by far the better horse based on that race.

I do agree with this aspect of it Ricketts, I was more implying that IMO the way Helmet runs is not suited to running this particular race.

I agree last week he ran a fantastic race and was a very deserving winner, took a risk by making the pace and was able to hold off but still remain adamant that he won't be up to it this Saturday.


Happy to be proven wrong though!

 

[rhinowce]

Lion Tamer needs to hit the paddock for another year! 4YO is getting tired at the wrong end of the year.

I've heard through a few mates that speaking with the trailer they are hoping Efficient will be hoping for a trail behind Helmet around the 1000 1 out. Expect a bold finish if it gets the right run, could be massive value for a each way bet

Not sure if serious???

Lion Tamer's grand final this year is the MC his last run was a complete forget job, blinkers go back on for the cox (does his best work in the blinkers) Bowman also jumps back on this weekend and if it rains on saturday look out, for me its a raffle between the 2 kiwi horses il be having both of them in all my multi's thats for sure...

 

[WeninRome]

It's the Cox Plate guys. Helmut is not So You Think. I remember backing Miss Finland when she was all the rage like Helmut.

FYI, here is part of a Racenet article - "The Peter Snowden-trained colt has been heavily supported to win Saturday’s feature but history shows three-year-old favourites have an appalling record in the weight-for-age classic.

In the last 25 years, six three-year-olds have started favourite in the Cox Plate. None of them have won and only two have managed to place.

The list contains some of the best-performed modern day three-year-olds – Drawn (1985), Danewin (1994), Our Maizcay (1995), Redoute’s Choice (1999), Miss Finland (2006) and Samantha Miss (2008).

Redoute’s Choice defeated multiple Group I winner Testa Rossa in the Caulfield Guineas before the super-stallion battled home a fortnight later to finish fifth in the Cox Plate.

The pair provided racing fans with an epic duel up the Caulfield straight in the Guineas ; baring uncanny similarities to Helmet’s stoush against Manawanui.

Drawn and Danewin, both Group I winners at weight-for-age, took out the Caulfield three-year-old feature but could only manage third and ninth respectively in the Cox Plate.

Champion galloper Red Anchor was the last three-year-old favourite to win the Cox Plate. He was also the last Caulfield Guineas winner to claim the Moonee Valley feature.


Hopefully, Helmet leads and sets it up perfectly for Jimmy Choux.

In the past 5 years (not 25) there have been 2 three year old winners and 2 three year old place getters.

Much like AFL rookies - no longer are the 3 year old's not able to compete against the older horses.

Only thing that troubles me about the H is the distance.

 

[Beauy420]

Only one horse in the past 20-25 years has won from outside box 6, is that a sign?

Does this bring kings rose into contention? efficient?

This is wayyy too open for my liking, as soon as i think about laying helmet i jump straight back on him.

 

[Lockyer24]

Another young jockey has died after Harry Hillier apparently
Anyone know who? WTF is happening to these kids

 

[KardiniaPark]

Only one horse in the past 20-25 years has won from outside box 6, is that a sign?

Does this bring kings rose into contention? efficient?

This is wayyy too open for my liking, as soon as i think about laying helmet i jump straight back on him.

Only two out of the last 20 three yr olds to run in it have won (so you think, savabeel)

 

[larrikan]

Here comes the Choux Choux Rain

 

[Aussie Assault]

Here comes the Choux Choux Rain

What are we expecting for tomorrow at the valley? A dead 5? Or worse? Both faves have form on rain affected tracks.

 

[rhinowce]

With the rain predicted cant see the $17s lasting too long for Lion Tamer...

 

[mattys123]

Here comes the Choux Choux Rain

Yep, and I reckon the general public, like most so called experts out there have written him off already.

I'm holding off on backing him, I reckon you might get close to double figure odds on MaxiDiv tomorrow, RI, Helmet and Secret Admirer will be backed on the tote.

I've thought for a few months that Jimmy would win the CP unless something better came along, and sorry, but nothing has IMO.

I got my 18's on Lion Tamer each way also, before a drop of rain had hit, my god the betting public are silly, this will be the start of a great weekend for the Kiwis.

 

[GoodesStuff]

You won't get double figure odds for JC ...

$7.50 is possible.

I have already backed LT and will be on JC as well.

 

[The Gospel]

Here comes the Choux Choux Rain

Jimmy now at $ 6.20 on betfair, have to have another crack at those odds

 

[footystar_]

Pinker Pinker a chance? Williams in top form??

Also race 3 Amah Rock should win comfortably

 

[Dominion]

Has anoyne seen the ias bonus this week. Is this correct.

I outlay $200 dollars on helmet at 3.40
If it wins they double your winnigns up to 200
So you return 680 (including original stake of 200) plus the extra 200 bonus
Total 880 - 200 = 680 profit if helmet wins.

If helmet loses then u get your stake back

Its worth noting that the offer only applies to your first bet placed on Saturday. Back something else first or put your CP bet on before midnight Friday and you miss out on the offer (by my reading of the T&C).

Here's hoping the $6s on JC lasts till then!

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Pinker Pinker a chance? Williams in top form??

Also race 3 Amah Rock should win comfortably

Red Rain will win race 3.

The more I think about it the more I'm liking Kings Rose.

 

[PieBeast]

Bossy -"I'm a massive Helmet fan, he runs a very strong mile, when he gets to 2000 I reckon he will go even better"

 

[iluvparis]

**** - that is the death knell if his Smart Missle comments are anything to go by.

Helemet will probably be gone before the turn now.

 

[Ricketts]

Just put my quaddie on:

Booming / Tullamore / Shewan / Illo
Danleigh / Ginga Dude / Dao Dao / Triple Elegance / Silver Grecian / Testa My Patience / Blackie / He's Remarkable
Jimmy Choux / Rekindled Interest / King's Rose / Helmet
Lady Lynette / More Stawberries / Raspberries / Hi Belle

 

[ontheup]

Jimmy Choux@6's with IAS with the bonus might be a handy return

 

[The_Doctor]

Any TAS punters out there betting with the tote, if you back a horse on their fixed odds they will pay out the place down to 4th. Only til 3pm tomorrow

 

[Tippaz]

race 4

1.Manawanui 2.Collar exacta

1.Manawanui 2.Collar 3.Power Broker trifecta

 

[ThePezDispenser]

race 4

1.Manawanui 2.Collar exacta

1.Manawanui 2.Collar 3.Power Broker trifecta

Going out on a limb there.

The first would pay 1.50 max

 

[iluvparis]

And quinella is always a chance of paying more too.

 

[PieBeast]

Just put my quaddie on:

Booming / Tullamore / Shewan / Illo
Danleigh / Ginga Dude / Dao Dao / Triple Elegance / Silver Grecian / Testa My Patience / Blackie / He's Remarkable
Jimmy Choux / Rekindled Interest / King's Rose / Helmet
Lady Lynette / More Stawberries / Raspberries / Hi Belle

The lack of Americain and Luen Yat Forever, who's my clear top pick, is puzzling to say the least.