Spring Carnival 2011

[Rooster Cogburn]

Smart Missile is an impressive beast, and I think he'll prove the doubters wrong tomorrow.

 

[Aussie Assault]

Average Cox Plate year & getting weaker by the day.
Fave is a Kiwi who beat Red Ruler last start & next 2 are 3yo's by Exceed & Excel & Fastnet Rock.

seth

Very true. It's the first time in a long time that I'm looking more forward to the Cups than the Plate. Still hanging for the Patinack though with BC.

What's Efficient's plan this spring? Not a big fan of him, but I thought his finish in the Turnball last Sunday was great. I see it has weights for the Cox Plate so I am presuming that? Not really suited I wouldnt have thought, but reckon he'll win a decent race this Spring for one last hoorah!

Helmet tomorrow in the Guineas.
Alcopop in the Stakes, especially with no Whobe.

 

[iluvparis]

He certainly hasn't done anything wrong. It's going to be an amazing race. Paris I think you are way too tough on Smart Missile, probably should have won the rose and then got Prebbled last start. Having said that I have a slight leaning towards Helmet at this stage.

I reckon all those talk of 'prebbled' is absolute BS. The fact was he was a 3yo, untested out of his age group or going the anti-clockwise way, starting in a G1 open handicap from barrier 17. Jesus Christ could have ridden him and he would not have finsihed closer.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Paris, watch the replay again, he was absolutely slaughtered, very negative ride.

 

[Fart Cummings]

just noticed the old war horse bauer is running round tomorrow might have a cheeky 10er on it to win tomorrow into the melb cup at about 2000-1

 

[Neddysmith]

Any Manawanui lovers in here? He has defeated Helmet & Smart Missle before..

Yeah am a fan of Manawanui and this he is a in with a big show, should be a great race between the top three, dont really think anything else is upto it...

 

[iluvparis]

Paris, watch the replay again, he was absolutely slaughtered, very negative ride.

Given he has missed the jump at every start so far what was Prebble supposed to do?

 

[Keystone agony]

Anyone know much about Riverside drive, apparently paying overs for a place at Belmont tomorrow? i know nothing about and never seen it run, going up a class so have my doubts, anyone know much about it?

 

[PieBeast]

Melb folk - Hows the weather. Should start off dead and upgrade to heavy?

But yeah, hasn't rained for days but is looking very overcast right now.

FWIW I like Helmet, Woorim and At First Sight tomorrow.

 

[Lockyer24]

Manawanui fan boy here. Backed him in the Rose and the runs around that. Have never backed Helmet/Smart Missile!

I am hoping my love for NSW horses in the last 12 months or so pays off tomorrow

I reckon they are all overs

Manawanui - up against his more over-rated opponents
Torio's Quest - might be a run off but his best would win the Toorak
Sincero - pure winner
Hollyweird - always had a good race like this in her
Karuta Queen - yeah up against it but she will fly along, just a 2nd would be great to see

Will be very happy if two of the first couple win at the odds they are at

American Dream, Lucky Eighty Eight, Valentine Miss, Studley Park my other fancies

 

[danielz_23]

Personally I think Smart Missile is the most overrated and overhyped piece of horseflesh we have seen in Australia for some time. For one, the trainer has NFI.

Helmet has a far superior record and has not be given the credit he deserves. Reckon he could win this easily and stamp himself as Cox Plate favourite.

It was a big reputation for a 3 start horse prior to golden rose. However if you watched Sepoy win last Friday you can somehow understand the excitement of the horse since he is the only thing to beat him.

Smart Missle is 2-0 H2H vs Helmet so i find it hard to run with far superior. I do think roles have been somewhat reversed and Helmet has got a little bit of overreaction...

Will be a ripper of a race in a spring starved of A-grade stars.

Possible Big 6 for me: 6 / 3,4,7 / 1,2,4,6,8,9,10,13 / 3 / 2,5,7,8,10 / 4,6,14
$36 = 10%... hoping for of Toorak blow out

 

[Colin D'Cops]

Alcopop in the Stakes, especially with no Whobe.

I agree. As such, put a $5 on Alcopop for a win in the Melb Cup @ $41 today. His price will dramatically decrease this time tomorrow I would imagine. Have also put on a lazy $5 on Manighar @ $51 for the Melb Cup (a week or two ago). Hopefully one of 'em can get up.

Smart Missile for me tomorrow, will be hard to hold out in this small-ish field I reckon.

 

[The_Doctor]

Im a big Lion Tamer fan so ill be having something on him tomorrow and also backing him for the Caulfield Cup as his price should come in again. I agree Alcopop is the danger and will be throwing him in for the quinella.

Also how the hell is King Mufhasa 12-1??

2 starts back this prep include a win over Jimmy Choux (Cox Plate favourite!) and a very good second behind him. Sure he has a wide barrier but he will go forward anyway and has no trouble with the big weights. Ill be on him EW.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

King Mufhasa is way overs, I think he's a real live shot to win tomorrow. A bit available @ 19.50 on Betfair at the moment.

 

[KardiniaPark]

But yeah, hasn't rained for days but is looking very overcast right now.

FWIW I like Helmet, Woorim and At First Sight tomorrow.

Must read posts before posting!

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Average Cox Plate year & getting weaker by the day.
Fave is a Kiwi who beat Red Ruler last start & next 2 are 3yo's by Exceed & Excel & Fastnet Rock.

seth

Was having this exact conversation yesterday Seth. Worst lot of WFA horses I can ever remember. No wonder Begg would be having glances at the Cox Plate with a horse like Secret Admirer. While the 3 year olds look good they all must have massive doubts over 2040m.

As for the Caulfield Cup, its not looking any better. Complete lack of depth.

Thank God for the imports as they will be the only thing saving the Melbourne Cup. Looks like an ordinary open class Spring to me.

 

[Lockyer24]

Pampelone and Shannara my two best in Sydney. Off to the track! good luck all

 

[iluvparis]

.

Smart Missle is 2-0 H2H vs Helmet so i find it hard to run with far superior. I do think roles have been somewhat reversed and Helmet has got a little bit of overreaction...

t

More pointing to the fact that Helmet is already a 2 time G1 winner - he has the runs on the board in the big ones where SM doesn't.

 

[The_Doctor]

More pointing to the fact that Helmet is already a 2 time G1 winner - he has the runs on the board in the big ones where SM doesn't.

G2 or G1 doesnt really make a difference, its more the horses you are racing. The horse doesnt feel any extra pressure in a G1. SM has already beaten Sepoy, beaten Helmet twice and Manawanui beat him by a nose where Manawanui had all the favors and SM had none.

 

[iluvparis]

I would argue Sepoy was miles below his best when beaten by SM

 

[The_Doctor]

I would argue Sepoy was miles below his best when beaten by SM

Ratings dont back that up though.

Smart Missile just went huge that day.

 

[iluvparis]

My ratings say that run was 3 lengths inferior to his Slipper win and 4.5 lengths inferior to his win in the Manikato

 

[The_Doctor]

Also how the hell is King Mufhasa 12-1??

2 starts back this prep include a win over Jimmy Choux (Cox Plate favourite!) and a very good second behind him. Sure he has a wide barrier but he will go forward anyway and has no trouble with the big weights. Ill be on him EW.

Love it when logic pays off in racing

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Did you get the 19's on betfair doc? Very tasty.

 

[The_Doctor]

Did you get the 19's on betfair doc? Very tasty.

Nah didnt have any money in Betfair

Had to settle for the 13s at IASbet, not complaining though