Spring Racing

[bombers21]

Was $34 this morning, no way on form i could even consider it

Something could be up there

 

[Big Bryza]

Damian Oliver. Absolutely murdered 2 rides in a row. Old habits die hard.

 

[iluvparis]

Trainer declared Bande leads after his final piece of work this morning.
Can guarantee that Green Moon will go forward, Gris Caro too though its 1000/1.
You want to make sure youre on a proven 2400m horse or be very confident it sticks.

seth

Is there question marks over the favourite at 2400 given she couldn't even beat her own sex and age over the trip back in the Autumn?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

This is my personal view only having backed Dandino last year. But....

1. On all evidence to date he is 5-6 lengths inferior to the horse he was last year. That includes his run in the American St Leger - a country where a 'stayer' is a horse that runs 1900m. There is not just one run to support this - all 4 of his runs this year have been far inferior to the form he showed last year (when he consistently rated 5-6 lengths higher). His last start at Kempton was absolutely awful.
2. Last year he was flying - in career best form - and while running huge races in both cups failed to win either. I feel he replicated his European form in those runs (i.e. it's not like he came to Australia and improved dramatically).
3. He was about the same price last year as he is this year but he is going far worse on all available evidence and carries more weight (admittedly - might be a weaker edition).
4. He has drawn the car pack.

In summary, you have to guess that he is all of a sudden going to return to his form of last season, and that's all you are doing (IMHO) - guessing. That's not how I personally like to bet. Maybe if he was 30-50/1 it would be worth the gamble but not at his current price. It's also not like he came to Australia last year and improved out of the clouds - he just replicated his European form in Australia. If he does that again he has no chance.

I know the owners are talking the house down and saying he is going as good as ever - but if that's the case I'm happy to let him win the Caulfield Cup and I can back him at Flemington.

I backed him last year and honestly can't have him in my top 10 this year.

Can understand your thinking, i will just point to one thing that indicates to me that he is well and truly back on track, Craig Williams aboard.

Surely he would have had the chance to ride Admire Rakti (rode him in Japan on numerous occasions) also, yet he chose Dandino, surely he wouldn't do this if he knew Dandino was going still going as poorly as you have said.

Yes its trust, but thats a pretty strong pointer to me.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Is there question marks over the favourite at 2400 given she couldn't even beat her own sex and age over the trip back in the Autumn?

Watch the race again, slaughtered some would say. Steaming home at the finish, 2400 not even a slight concern for me.

 

[iluvparis]

Can understand your thinking, i will just point to one thing that indicates to me that he is well and truly back on track, Craig Williams aboard.

Surely he would have had the chance to ride Admire Rakti (rode him in Japan on numerous occasions) also, yet he chose Dandino, surely he wouldn't do this if he knew Dandino was going still going as poorly as you have said.

Yes its trust, but thats a pretty strong pointer to me.

Fair enough - I would largely ignore jockey choice like that unless there is a clear stable jockey situation going on (i.e. it was trained by Moody and Nolen picked it over Lidari). Especially given he rode Dandino in the race last year.

 

[sethlad]

Willo actually chose Dandino over Ambivalent, hear it was a very close call.
Chose wisely as luck would have it

seth

 

[rideclutch]

How does Lemaire go rating them from the front? Worried that he hasn't ridden Bande before.

 

[iluvparis]

No worse than any Australian jockey would - he has ridden plenty of times in Japan too.

 

[rideclutch]

Yeah I just found an article where he went through his thoughts and preperation for the race, described the horse as a "classic front-running stayer..."

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Taking the $13/4 on Bel sprinter in the Perri Cutten. Goes well fresh 7:5:0:0.
Nice trial last week. Don't think I'll get that price on sat.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Incase y'all have missed it in another thread, R7#1 Brambles @ $5.50/$2 (365) is bordering on lunacy.. $3.40ish currently everywhere else. Wont get a better EW bet to nothing all carnival IMO. Think he should be a 2.60 - 2.80 chance in that race.

 

[Gavin Excell]

I have backed the Japanese few weeks ago but if Brambles gets a run will play

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Incase y'all have missed it in another thread, R7#1 Brambles @ $5.50/$2 (365) is bordering on lunacy.. $3.40ish currently everywhere else. Wont get a better EW bet to nothing all carnival IMO. Think he should be a 2.60 - 2.80 chance in that race.

And into $4 now

 

[RWnBluey]

Incase y'all have missed it in another thread, R7#1 Brambles @ $5.50/$2 (365) is bordering on lunacy.. $3.40ish currently everywhere else. Wont get a better EW bet to nothing all carnival IMO. Think he should be a 2.60 - 2.80 chance in that race.

Loaded up on $5.50 EW, into 4's now on 365

Edit: sorry power, didn't see your last post

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Still declaring Brambles, which I'm not back tracking from, but if you want another one at very good value to put in for quaddies, quins, exactas, trifi and f4 bets, Honorius is it. Great run in the epsom last start, ran 4th in this race last year. Think they are the two to bases all your bets around. Will be a heavy bet race for me come Saturday.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Loaded up on $5.50 EW, into 4's now on 365

Edit: sorry power, didn't see your last post

Hope you didn't re-draw on house mate

 

[iluvparis]

Still declaring Brambles, which I'm not back tracking from, but if you want another one at very good value to put in for quaddies, quins, exactas, trifi and f4 bets, Honorius is it. Great run in the epsom last start, ran 4th in this race last year. Think they are the two to bases all your bets around. Will be a heavy bet race for me come Saturday.

You haven't even mentioned the winner yet!

 

[Jugada]

What do you guys reckon about Seismos for exotics? I really like barrier 1 and Froggy in the saddle, could see him running a similar race to Protectionist in the HP

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

You haven't even mentioned the winner yet!

Yerrr, who could that be? Another european mule for fanboy paris?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

What do you guys reckon about Seismos for exotics? I really like barrier 1 and Froggy in the saddle, could see him running a similar race to Protectionist in the HP

Not for me from the film, think he maybe left a bit flat footed in this field, looks like a grinder who needs further.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

What a sad time, suppose to be our kick off to spring and we loose another jockey..
@TheBettingBar: Our thoughts are with all affected by the tragic loss of jockeys Juan Saez, Carly-Mae Pye and Caitlin Forrest.

 

[iluvparis]

What do you guys reckon about Seismos for exotics? I really like barrier 1 and Froggy in the saddle, could see him running a similar race to Protectionist in the HP

Best chance of the Euro raiders for mine

 

[sethlad]

Still declaring Brambles, which I'm not back tracking from, but if you want another one at very good value to put in for quaddies, quins, exactas, trifi and f4 bets, Honorius is it. Great run in the epsom last start, ran 4th in this race last year. Think they are the two to bases all your bets around. Will be a heavy bet race for me come Saturday.

Sorry lads, brambles now in CC with gris caro scr

seth

 

[KardiniaPark]

Sorry lads, brambles now in CC with gris caro scr

seth

Maybe they will scratch and take the easier option