Spring Racing

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Main Man

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Got on at $3.50 a while back ;)

Splits have been impressive. Only question marks for mine is how he deals with the step up in class in his first G1 and drawing an inside barrier

Not an issue in my opinion, horse doesn't know he is racing in a G1 and class for me is the ability to get from point A to B faster than the others, he has no issues with running fast.

His racing pattern and manners are also in his favor in this, he gets back and travels into his races under no pressure, far less likely to come undone against better opposition than a horse who races up on speed being attacked.

He is the best bet of the carnival as far as I'm concerned.
 

ABitWoofy

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Not an issue in my opinion, horse doesn't know he is racing in a G1 and class for me is the ability to get from point A to B faster than the others, he has no issues with running fast.

His racing pattern and manners are also in his favor in this, he gets back and travels into his races under no pressure, far less likely to come undone against better opposition than a horse who races up on speed being attacked.

He is the best bet of the carnival as far as I'm concerned.

Once again, I agree. Only playing devils advocate here.
 

Jugada

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I would've thought Chautauqua would go up odds on, is $2.30, others surprised?

I'm surprised it's so short. There is a big difference between running time in weak races (in comparison) and sustaining it against the high pressure of proven G1 stars. This is a ripping field and I'm not prepared to take the shorts at all
 

Main Man

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I'm surprised it's so short. There is a big difference between running time in weak races (in comparison) and sustaining it against the high pressure of proven G1 stars. This is a ripping field and I'm not prepared to take the shorts at all

That's probably what you said about Lankan Rupee going into the Newmarket back in the Autumn?

He just beat Temple of Boom by 6 lengths under no riding whatsoever and you could argue he was unlucky in the Manikato.

If you don't want to take the shorts you don't want to take the short odds but you cannot simply dismiss his performance because he raced weak horses in your mind.

He is racing against G1 horse but he is a horse of G1 ability himself, he just hasn't raced in one yet.
 
Mar 17, 2014
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That's probably what you said about Lankan Rupee going into the Newmarket back in the Autumn?

He just beat Temple of Boom by 6 lengths under no riding whatsoever and you could argue he was unlucky in the Manikato.

If you don't want to take the shorts you don't want to take the short odds but you cannot simply dismiss his performance because he raced weak horses in your mind.

He is racing against G1 horse but he is a horse of G1 ability himself, he just hasn't raced in one yet.

i think the Manikato stakes form wont hold up, they all finished together in relatively slow time (I tawt i taw tawteen run a faster time on the same night) and already horses have failed out of it on Tuesday. I do think Lankan Rupee will improve out of sight away from Moonee Valley though, I am very keen on the Chataqua from Lankan Rupee quinella
 

Main Man

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i think the Manikato stakes form wont hold up, they all finished together in relatively slow time (I tawt i taw tawteen run a faster time on the same night) and already horses have failed out of it on Tuesday. I do think Lankan Rupee will improve out of sight away from Moonee Valley though, I am very keen on the Chataqua from Lankan Rupee quinella

They ran slower time than both Fast'nRockin & Tawteen on the night, it was a low rating G1 race.

I do think Lankan will improve up the straight but he is still 3-4 lengths below his best, hard to see him finding his peak form here.
 

Jugada

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That's probably what you said about Lankan Rupee going into the Newmarket back in the Autumn?

He just beat Temple of Boom by 6 lengths under no riding whatsoever and you could argue he was unlucky in the Manikato.

If you don't want to take the shorts you don't want to take the short odds but you cannot simply dismiss his performance because he raced weak horses in your mind.

He is racing against G1 horse but he is a horse of G1 ability himself, he just hasn't raced in one yet.

You're guessing what I may or may not have said about a different horse 6 months ago? Why even bother

Yes he beat Temple of Boom by 6L, who is 100-1 here
I'm not dismissing him, I'm saying he is poison odds based on what he has done and who he has beaten so far and there is no way I could entertain backing him at the odds. I want a horse to be proven in quality G1 races before taking odds like that against a field of this depth
 

rideclutch

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I do think Lankan will improve up the straight but he is still 3-4 lengths below his best, hard to see him finding his peak form here.
I think you have to factor in the work he missed with his setback, in combination with the gut busting style of performance he was asked for when assessing the Manikato run.

Whether those things plus Valley factor cost him 3-4 lengths is debatable, but you never know.
 

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Main Man

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I think you have to factor in the work he missed with his setback, in combination with the gut busting style of performance he was asked for when assessing the Manikato run.

Whether those things plus Valley factor cost him 3-4 lengths is debatable, but you never know.

His Manikato run was about 6 or 7 lengths off his peak, it was the worst rating he has run with me for 12 months, Chautaqua equaled Lankan's career peak with his last up effort and Lankan has not been within 3-4 lengths of his peak this time in.

His TJ run was more of a gut buster than his Manikato run and that produced his career peak.

I love Lankan Rupee, not been a horse that I have made more money out of but I want to be on Chatauqua on Saturday.
 

Main Man

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I have no issue with someone risking a horse at that price first attempt at an open age Group 1.

Neither do I if the particular horse in question lead up performances have little substance to them, not the case here, you shouldn't simply take on a horse because he is racing in a G1 for the first time, I can assure you the bookies won't want to be taking him on this Saturday because he is running in a G1 for the first time.
 

rideclutch

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I love Lankan Rupee, not been a horse that I have made more money out of but I want to be on Chatauqua on Saturday.
Not disagreeing with this, just looking for reasons why he can improve.

No certainty he will either, not knowing what that last run took out of him.
 
Neither do I if the particular horse in question lead up performances have little substance to them, not the case here, you shouldn't simply take on a horse because he is racing in a G1 for the first time, I can assure you the bookies won't want to be taking him on this Saturday because he is running in a G1 for the first time.

I would argue given he isn't odds on they have taken him on to some extent.
 
Aug 15, 2011
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Some Longer odds i like for tomorrow oaks.

Consoling Amy R6 - Has already been smashed in but i give it every chance to win. Get on E/W.

R8 - Pocket Rocket. Loves flemington and i think its a shot. Beat home Kansas sun with more weight not long ago from memory. Should find the distance.

Also think Fontein Ruby is overs.

Proactive my closest to a good thing tomorrow but thats not hard for tomorrow, bit like MC day. fOLLOWED BY fLOATMYBOAT IN THE LAST (sorry caps)
 
You must be ready to empty the book then?

Haven't even looked at the race - but the way some people where shouting from the rafters I'm surprised he is not an odds on shot.
 
Oct 16, 2008
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The Buff hasn't done much wrong this prep. Held off LR first up and was impressive in the Manikato to loom up given he was hampered pretty badly soon after the start.

Loves the straight, Luxnet had him just over 4s to place and had a decent crack. Great jock too, Browne is one of the best in the country IMO.
 

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