Spring Racing

[iluvparis]

I hear you, but I simply can't have any of the locals, or even local trained as it stands right now. When you look at the Euro's that go well here, they're not really top shelf, Mt Athos, Red Cadeaux etc... I know the Prix Kergolay was a joke this year, but I just like Protectionist a bit, over say Murtagh's pair or the ATB horses.

Still waiting for the last minute hail mary from Lloyd to show up, seeing as the stable is going so well

As I said, in my mind Bande should he a heavy favourite - if the Japanese are even half reasonable they are the ones to beat.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Unfortunately for Lloyd i see Fawkner much in the same light as Zipping, he will run a brave MC, i just dont think he runs the trip right out.

The race that Sea Moon was in yesterday should have been lambs to the slaughter for any real Melbourne cup chance, even with the 60kgs and first up, seriously, I've seen winter country cup fields with equivalent talent.

As for the CC, not over yet, still got a feeling Rising Romance might have a say in it. That was putrid race in Sydney yesterday and the jockey had no option but to ride her outside her usual pattern, will be much better in a big field.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Does anyone have any video of this Japaneese horse going around in the CC. Winner of five of his 12 career starts, Bande was third behind crack stayer Gold Ship in the Group 2 Hanshin Daishotin (3000m) in March.

 

[PureFooty]

Unfortunately for Lloyd i see Fawkner much in the same light as Zipping, he will run a brave MC, i just dont think he runs the trip right out.

The race that Sea Moon was in yesterday should have been lambs to the slaughter for any real Melbourne cup chance, even with the 60kgs and first up, seriously, I've seen winter country cup fields with equivalent talent.

As for the CC, not over yet, still got a feeling Rising Romance might have a say in it. That was putrid race in Sydney yesterday and the jockey had no option but to ride her outside her usual pattern, will be much better in a big field.

I thought his run in last years cup was huge, Nick Hall gave it a horrid ride. You can't snag back to last, then circle the field and expect to win the race. Still manged to finish in the first 6 and I thought he ran the trip out pretty well. The ride will generally win you a cup, and going 10 wide around the turn and from last in a 3200m race is just not going to win you it.

 

[sethlad]

Does anyone have any video of this Japaneese horse going around in the CC. Winner of five of his 12 career starts, Bande was third behind crack stayer Gold Ship in the Group 2 Hanshin Daishotin (3000m) in March.

Theres video of Bande in MC thread

seth

 

[sethlad]

I'd just be anxious if it happened to be a warm day.
Which Euro/s (if any) do you fancy from a MC point of view, Seth?

The only Euro who is anywhere near getting a run is Au Revoir, all the others need a decent penalty.
His form looks ok on paper behind good horses like Spiritjim (in Arc tonight) & Ruler of the World.
Assume theyll go Geel cup as OTI usually do, not sure he's here for 2014.

seth

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I thought his run in last years cup was huge, Nick Hall gave it a horrid ride. You can't snag back to last, then circle the field and expect to win the race. Still manged to finish in the first 6 and I thought he ran the trip out pretty well. The ride will generally win you a cup, and going 10 wide around the turn and from last in a 3200m race is just not going to win you it.

That how you make sure they run the trip. Snag back to last, let everyone do the work and just put pressure on in the straight, dont think Fawkner 'circled the field', more like pulled wide on the turn to avoid tired traffic. Zipping did exactly the same in each of his MC runs, always ran 4th to 8th, never a hope of winning though.

 

[Jugada]

Just watched the replay and Nick Hall's ride was far from horrid, it was actually a pretty good ride. Sat back at the end, got cover, came around them on the turn and was there to win at the top of the straight but just ran out of puff and couldn't finish it off

Coming like 10 wide on the corner around the tiring horses is actually a pretty good spot. The worst is getting held up up for a run because it just kills your momentum and it's hard to get back over 2 miles

 

[Big Bryza]

Lloyd believes Sea Moon is his best Melbourne Cup chance, which makes me very worried about backing Fawkner for it. I have a feeling despite Lloyd always having his eyes on the Cup that he might just be targeting Fawkner on winning an elusive Cox Plate for him this year. You can see that's what he wants sitting on the mantle now

Fawkner is a moral for the Cox Plate. It's the race Lloyd wants and Fawkner is in the perfect position to win it.

 

[iluvparis]

That how you make sure they run the trip. Snag back to last, let everyone do the work and just put pressure on in the straight, dont think Fawkner 'circled the field', more like pulled wide on the turn to avoid tired traffic. Zipping did exactly the same in each of his MC runs, always ran 4th to 8th, never a hope of winning though.

Agree with this post 200% - nailed it.

 

[rideclutch]

Agree with this post 200% - nailed it.

Fair points made all round.

For mine, if you were riding Fawkner to give him absolutely no chance of winning the race, that's exactly how you'd do it.

Not only did he have no intention of being last after 100m (grabbed the horse three times, it overreacts, game over), he had a complete meltdown making a sustained run on a horse who has a 200m sprint... Rode it like he pulled it IMO, but hey it's an opinion game.

For the record, perfectly ridden I think he crosses the line with Dandino, no closer. Zipping comparison apt.

 

[TBellicious]

the guineas this year is race 2, at 12....

 

[ThePezDispenser]

Does anyone know what time the Cox Plate will be this year?

Thanks in advance!

 

[checkraiseulite]

5:40pm

 

[RWnBluey]

Am keen on LLTC for the CG. Don't think the 2.5kg he gives up will be a prob, but the short Caulfield straight may hinder considering he takes a little winding up. Will be have to be closer at the turn than previously otherwise RE wins for mine.

 

[TBellicious]

Rich Enuff looks hard to beat, that horse is something else

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Rich Enuff looks hard to beat, that horse is something else

Agree, have been on the past two but too short for me this week. Chivalry, stupid odds $10 +, had no hope of winning last start, will get the hot speed required this week.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Sweynesse $2 vs First Seal $2.80 in the Spring Champion?

Seriously? They are taking the piss aren't they?

Or they know FS isn't running? Come in Spinner!!!

Will wait for final field acceptances just incase but if they put up anything over $2 for FS it will be my biggest bet of the year.

 

[iluvparis]

the guineas this year is race 2, at 12....

No its not - the races aren't put in race/time order on the RISA site until the acceptance stage.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

the guineas this year is race 2, at 12....

Highly doubt it, main race is usually race 7, although last year they experimented and made it the last race of the day so people would stick around.

 

[TBellicious]

No its not - the races aren't put in race/time order on the RISA site until the acceptance stage.

thank god for that

 

[terminators]

Highly doubt it, main race is usually race 7, although last year they experimented and made it the last race of the day so people would stick around.

No chance it's R2, always a leg of quaddie and will be 2nd or 3rd last race after last yrs disaster running them last race of day

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Anyone have early thoughts for the CC in couple of weeks time? Lucia Valentina nice win in the Turnbull on sat. $5.50 on sportsbet now. Next best is the Japaneese Bande at $10.
I may be wrong but I think the last fav to win the CC was master o'reilly.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Anyone have early thoughts for the CC in couple of weeks time? Lucia Valentina nice win in the Turnbull on sat. $5.50 on sportsbet now. Next best is the Japaneese Bande at $10.
I may be wrong but I think the last fav to win the CC was master o'reilly.

No dont remind me of that Cup, please, for the love of god! Had a ticket with Maldivian's name on it dated July with odds of 50-1 and a bet of $50, may not of even won, but to be in the barriers and have a $2.50 chance running at $50's it was gut wrenching.

Rising Romance is the one I'm interested in at the price now (17-1 with 4 places on LUX). Beat LV in the Oaks in Autumn. As for the Internationals, i will get researching when i see who is actually running.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

On CC betting, anyone who is taking under 50-1 on Who Shot the Barman is Harry Obrien style crazy.

Lets link the form, beat Jacquinot Bay two starts back who ran 5th in the Benella Cup yesterday, beat Marksmanship on the weekend who was beaten out of sight in the JRA Cup and was only winning poor staying races in the winter against the likes of Fulgur.

Seriously? 14-1? lmao... Wouldn't even win the David Jones on the same day.